气候变暖已成为全球密切关注的问题,和中国,作为一个重要的农业国家,对食物的需求不断增加,这就要求中国在这个行业增加碳减排。本文采用投入产出法核算了食品生产行业(CEFI)的碳排放,然后基于随机森林(RF)筛选CEFI的影响因素,通过K-means-SHAP分析不同集群中CEFI影响因素的异质性效应,最后探讨了该行业在2024-2040年期间的碳排放潜力。研究结果如下:第一,CEFI存在明显的不平等,尤其是各省之间,正在逐渐增加。第二,解决人们的消费意识和行为并不是缓解CEFI的根本解决方案;相反,在运输阶段,它应该侧重于可持续的农业生产转型和“食物英里”。此外,需要注意施肥的影响,运输方式,和每个集群CEFI上的牲畜管理。最后,该研究表明,在2028年左右,中国70%的省份将处于“碳峰值”,欠发达和较发达地区的减排潜力更大。在这方面,本文鼓励采取一系列促进CEFI可持续发展的关键政策,例如减少传统肥料的体积和效率,大力发展有机肥投入,加强交通运输部门的技术创新和研发投入,稳步支持畜牧业种质创新。
Climate warming has become a global issue of close concern, and China, as a significant agricultural country, has an increasing demand for food, which requires China to increase carbon reduction in this industry. This paper accounts for carbon emissions from the food production industry (CEFI) using the input-output method, then screens the influencing factors of CEFI based on Random Forest (RF), analyzes the heterogeneous effects of the influencing factors on CEFI in different clusters through K-means-SHAP, and finally explores the potential of carbon emissions from this industry for the period 2024-2040. The study\'s findings are as follows: First, there are apparent inequalities in CEFI, especially between provinces, which are gradually increasing. Second, addressing people\'s consumption awareness and behaviors is not the fundamental solution to alleviate CEFI; instead, it should focus on sustainable agricultural production transformation and \"food miles\" in the transportation phase. In addition, attention needs to be paid to the impacts of fertilizer application, transport modes, and livestock management on the CEFI of each cluster. Finally, the study suggests that around 2028, 70% of China\'s provinces will be at the \"carbon peak\" and that less developed and more developed regions have more significant potential to reduce emissions. In this regard, this paper encourages a series of policies that are key to promoting the sustainable development of CEFI, such as reducing the volume and efficiency of traditional fertilizers, vigorously developing organic fertilizer inputs, strengthening technological innovation and R&D inputs in the transportation sector, and steadily supporting germplasm innovation in the livestock sector.