目的:本研究利用临床和多层螺旋CT(MSCT)特征开发并验证了列线图,用于预测IA期肺腺癌中Ki-67的表达。此外,我们评估了Ki-67表达水平的预测准确性,根据我们的模型,评估IA期肺腺癌的预后。
方法:我们回顾性分析395例经病理证实的IA期肺腺癌患者的资料。共有322名患者以6:4的比例分为训练组和内部验证组,而其余73例患者组成外部验证组.根据病理结果,将患者分为Ki-67标记指数(LI)高、低组.对临床和CT特征进行统计分析。训练组用于通过逻辑回归构建预测模型并制定列线图。评估了列线图的预测能力和拟合优度。进行了内部和外部验证,并对临床效用进行了评估。最后,比较无复发生存率(RFS).
结果:在训练组中,性别,年龄,肿瘤密度类型,肿瘤-肺界面,分叶,刺突,胸膜凹陷,Ki-67LI高和低的患者之间的最大结节直径显着不同。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,性别,肿瘤密度,在IA期肺腺癌中,最大结节直径与Ki-67高表达显着相关。校准曲线与标准曲线非常相似,表明该模型具有良好的鉴别力和准确性。决策曲线分析显示出良好的临床实用性。列线图预测的高Ki-67LI患者的RFS较差。
结论:利用临床和CT特征预测IA期肺腺癌中Ki-67表达的列线图表现优异,临床效用,和预后意义,这表明该列线图是一种用于术前预测Ki-67表达的非侵入性个性化方法。
OBJECTIVE: This study developed and validated a nomogram utilizing clinical and multi-slice spiral computed tomography (MSCT) features for the preoperative prediction of Ki-67 expression in stage IA lung adenocarcinoma. Additionally, we assessed the predictive accuracy of Ki-67 expression levels, as determined by our model, in estimating the prognosis of stage IA lung adenocarcinoma.
METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data from 395 patients with pathologically confirmed stage IA lung adenocarcinoma. A total of 322 patients were divided into training and internal validation groups at a 6:4 ratio, whereas the remaining 73 patients composed the external validation group. According to the pathological results, the patients were classified into high and low Ki-67 labeling index (LI) groups. Clinical and CT features were subjected to statistical analysis. The training group was used to construct a predictive model through logistic regression and to formulate a nomogram. The nomogram\'s predictive ability and goodness-of-fit were assessed. Internal and external validations were performed, and clinical utility was evaluated. Finally, the recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates were compared.
RESULTS: In the training group, sex, age, tumor density type, tumor-lung interface, lobulation, spiculation, pleural indentation, and maximum nodule diameter differed significantly between patients with high and low Ki-67 LI. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that sex, tumor density, and maximum nodule diameter were significantly associated with high Ki-67 expression in stage IA lung adenocarcinoma. The calibration curves closely resembled the standard curves, indicating the excellent discrimination and accuracy of the model. Decision curve analysis revealed favorable clinical utility. Patients with a nomogram-predicted high Ki-67 LI exhibited worse RFS.
CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram utilizing clinical and CT features for the preoperative prediction of Ki-67 expression in stage IA lung adenocarcinoma demonstrated excellent performance, clinical utility, and prognostic significance, suggesting that this nomogram is a noninvasive personalized approach for the preoperative prediction of Ki-67 expression.