目的:这个假设的基于小插图的实验旨在更好地了解法官和缓刑官的解释和青少年风险评估工具的使用,以青少年风险水平和种族为基础,对青少年进行限制性制裁和禁闭的决策。
目的:我们预计对青少年再犯概率的估计将显著调节分类风险描述符与对青少年进行排序监禁的决定之间的关系。我们还假设,青年种族将成为模型中的重要主持人。
方法:司法和缓刑人员(N=309)阅读了一个由两部分组成的小插图,讲述了一个第一次被捕的年轻人;在这个小插图中,种族(黑色,白色)和风险水平(低,中度,高,非常高)的年轻人各不相同。参与者被要求估计年轻人在下一年中再次出生的可能性以及他们订购或推荐住宿的可能性。
结果:虽然我们发现不简单,风险水平与分娩决定之间存在显著关系,司法和缓刑人员估计,随着风险等级类别的增加,再犯的可能性更高,并随着他们对青少年再犯可能性的估计增加,以更高的比率下令外出安置。年轻人的比赛并没有使模型变得温和。
结论:再犯的可能性越大,每个法官或缓刑监督官下令或推荐外出安置的可能性就越大。然而,重要的是,法律决策者似乎使用自己对风险类别的解释将分类风险评估数据应用于其限制决策,而不是根据风险级别类别进行实证指导。(PsycInfo数据库记录(c)2023年APA,保留所有权利)。
This hypothetical vignette-based experiment was designed to better understand judges\' and probation officers\' interpretations and use of juvenile risk assessment tools in their decision-making around restrictive sanctions and confinement of youths on the basis of the youths\' risk level and race.
We expected that estimates of the probability of juvenile recidivism would significantly mediate the relationship between a categorical risk descriptor and decisions regarding the ordering confinement of youths. We also hypothesized that youths\' race would serve as a significant moderator in the model.
Judicial and probation staff (N = 309) read a two-part vignette about a youth who was arrested for the first time; in this vignette, race (Black, White) and risk level (low, moderate, high, very high) of the youth were varied. Participants were asked to estimate the likelihood that the youth would recidivate in the following year and their likelihood of ordering or recommending residential placement.
Although we found no simple, significant relationship between risk level and confinement decisions, judicial and probation staff estimated higher likelihoods of recidivism as risk-level categories increased and ordered out-of-home placements at increased rates as their estimations of the youth\'s likelihood of recidivation increased. The youth\'s race did not moderate the model.
The greater the probability of recidivism, the more likely each judge or probation officer was to order or recommend out-of-home placement. However, importantly, legal decisionmakers appeared to apply categorical risk assessment data to their confinement decisions using their own interpretations of risk category rather than being guided empirically on the basis of risk-level categories. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).