侵袭性李斯特菌病,由于其在易感人群中的严重性质,已成为许多定量风险评估(QRA)模型的重点,旨在为未来的风险管理工作提供有价值的指导。对已发表的海鲜中单核细胞增生李斯特菌QRA模型进行了综述,目的是评估食物链不同点控制策略的有效性。值得注意的是,然而,QRA模型的结果是特定于上下文的,受国家和目标人群的影响,所采用的假设,以及模型架构本身。通过使用Scopus和PubMed®上正确连接的关键词的文献检索来检索包含QRA模型的研究。所有13个恢复的QRA模型都是短范围的,覆盖,最多,从加工结束到消费的时期;大多数(85%)集中在熏制或沙带鱼上。由于模型化的途径是从包装产品开始的,QRA模型均未解决交叉污染事件.许多模型一致认为,将产品的温度保持在4.0-4.5°C会导致李斯特菌病的最终风险比减少保质期一周更大的降低,并且通过减少产品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌的初始发生率(在加工结束时),可以超过这两种措施的有效性。是的,因此,必要的是,未来的RTE海鲜QRA模型包含一个处理模块,可以提供对干预策略的洞察力,可以延缓单核细胞增生李斯特菌的生长,例如使用细菌素,特设发酵剂和/或有机酸,以及其他旨在减少设施交叉污染的策略,例如对卫生程序的严格控制。由于风险估计被证明是由增长动力学参数适度驱动的,即,指数增长率,生长的最低温度,和最大人口密度,需要进一步的工作来减少不确定性。
Invasive listeriosis, due to its severe nature in susceptible populations, has been the focus of many quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models aiming to provide a valuable guide in future risk management efforts. A review of the published QRA models of Listeria monocytogenes in seafood was performed, with the objective of appraising the effectiveness of the control strategies at different points along the food chain. It is worth noting, however, that the outcomes of a QRA model are context-specific, and influenced by the country and target population, the assumptions that are employed, and the model architecture itself. Studies containing QRA models were retrieved through a literature search using properly connected keywords on Scopus and PubMed®. All 13 QRA models that were recovered were of short scope, covering, at most, the period from the end of processing to consumption; the majority (85%) focused on smoked or gravad fish. Since the modelled pathways commenced with the packaged product, none of the QRA models addressed cross-contamination events. Many models agreed that keeping the product\'s temperature at 4.0-4.5 °C leads to greater reductions in the final risk of listeriosis than reducing the shelf life by one week and that the effectiveness of both measures can be surpassed by reducing the initial occurrence of L. monocytogenes in the product (at the end of processing). It is, therefore, necessary that future QRA models for RTE seafood contain a processing module that can provide insight into intervention strategies that can retard L. monocytogenes\' growth, such as the use of bacteriocins, ad hoc starter cultures and/or organic acids, and other strategies seeking to reduce cross-contamination at the facilities, such as stringent controls for sanitation procedures. Since risk estimates were shown to be moderately driven by growth kinetic parameters, namely, the exponential growth rate, the minimum temperature for growth, and the maximum population density, further work is needed to reduce uncertainties.