关于能源碳排放的现有文献主要集中在电力等高能耗行业,交通运输,和建筑,而对服务业等相对低碳产业的能源碳排放研究较少。但服务业占中国国民经济的一半以上,它的碳排放量越来越不可忽视。基于此,我们使用结构分解模型,投入产出分析方法,利用能源消费方法研究2007-2017年中国服务业能源碳排放的结构影响因素。结果表明:(1)未来服务业能源碳减排的压力和空间依然巨大。具体来说,在样本范围内,虽然服务业能源碳排放的过快增长有所缓解,高碳能源在服务业能源碳排放中的比重仍然很高,能源消费结构优化没有明显改善。(2)在样本期内,服务业的能源利用效率得到了显着优化和提高,导致能源强度对服务业碳排放增长的抑制作用。然而,应该注意的是,随着时间的推移,能源强度效应所发挥的减排效应呈现出疲惫的趋势。因此,在未来,服务业能源碳排放的控制需要采取多种方法共同作用。(3)输入结构效应,能源结构效应,最终需求效应促进了服务业能源碳排放的增长。这也表明在样本范围内,服务业作为最终需求产品具有高碳化的特点,投入结构效应的广义技术进步没有得到改善,服务业供给侧能源消费结构尚未优化。因此,从以上三个方面来看,我国服务业未来仍有很大的减排潜力。研究结果为从投入产出角度更准确高效地实现服务业减排提供了理论分析依据和实践指导。
Existing literatures on energy carbon emissions mainly focus on high-energy industries such as electricity, transportation, and construction, while there are few researches on energy carbon emissions of relatively low-carbon industries such as the service industry. But with the service sector accounting for more than one-half of China\'s national economy, its carbon emissions are increasingly not negligible. Based on this, we use the structural decomposition model, input-output analysis method, and energy consumption method to study the structural factors influencing energy carbon emissions in China\'s service industry from 2007 to 2017. The results show that (1) the pressure and space of energy carbon emission reduction of the service industry are still huge in the future. Specifically, in the sample range, although the excessive growth of the energy carbon emissions of the service industry has been alleviated, the proportion of high-carbon energy in the energy carbon emissions of the service industry is still high, and the optimization of the energy consumption structure has not been significantly improved. (2) During the sample period, the energy utilization efficiency of the service industry has been significantly optimized and improved, which leads to the inhibition of the energy intensity effect on the growth of carbon emissions of the service industry. However, it should be noted that the emission reduction effect exerted by the energy intensity effect over time shows a tired trend. Therefore, in the future, the control of energy carbon emissions in the service industry needs to take multiple approaches to work together. (3) Input structure effect, energy structure effect, and final demand effect promote the growth of service industry energy carbon emissions. This also indicates that in the sample range, the service industry as the final demand product has the characteristics of high carbonization, the generalized technological progress of the input structure effect has not been improved, and the energy consumption structure on the supply side of the service industry has not been optimized. Therefore, China\'s service industry still has great potential for emission reduction from the above three aspects in the future. The research results provide a theoretical analysis basis and practical guidance for more accurate and efficient emission reduction in the service industry from the input-output perspective.