Selection, Genetic

选择,遗传
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    尽管进化生物学痴迷于自然选择,很少有研究在自然种群的全基因组尺度上评估多代系列的选择模式。这里,我们报道了一项10年的微甲壳类水蚤种群基因组调查。[公式:参见文本]800个分离株的基因组序列提供了对无法从长期分子进化研究中获得的选择模式的见解,包括以下内容:整个基因组中接近准中性的普遍性(接近零的平均净选择系数,但是均值的时间差异很大,几乎没有证据表明跨时间间隔的选择正协方差);弱的正选择对次要等位基因起作用的优势;以及影响核苷酸多样性水平的许多可观察选择的小连锁岛的全基因组分布。这些结果表明,年际波动选择是自然种群变化水平的主要决定因素,挑战解释核苷酸多样性和分歧模式的传统范式,并激发了进一步发展解释群体基因组数据的理论表达式的必要性。
    Despite evolutionary biology\'s obsession with natural selection, few studies have evaluated multigenerational series of patterns of selection on a genome-wide scale in natural populations. Here, we report on a 10-y population-genomic survey of the microcrustacean Daphnia pulex. The genome sequences of [Formula: see text]800 isolates provide insights into patterns of selection that cannot be obtained from long-term molecular-evolution studies, including the following: the pervasiveness of near quasi-neutrality across the genome (mean net selection coefficients near zero, but with significant temporal variance about the mean, and little evidence of positive covariance of selection across time intervals); the preponderance of weak positive selection operating on minor alleles; and a genome-wide distribution of numerous small linkage islands of observable selection influencing levels of nucleotide diversity. These results suggest that interannual fluctuating selection is a major determinant of standing levels of variation in natural populations, challenge the conventional paradigm for interpreting patterns of nucleotide diversity and divergence, and motivate the need for the further development of theoretical expressions for the interpretation of population-genomic data.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:胞质溶胶中的油体或脂滴(LD)是种子的亚细胞储存区室和向发芽种子提供能量的脂质代谢位点。主要的LD相关蛋白是脂氧合酶,磷脂酶,油质蛋白,TAG-脂肪酶,甾醇质,钙质和SEIPINs;参与促进发芽和增强过氧化作用,导致异味。然而,自然选择如何平衡富含脂质的种子中的矛盾过程仍然回避。本研究旨在预测主要油料种子直系同源进化枝之间的选择特征以及选择效应与基因表达的相关性。
    结果:分析了主要含油作物的LD相关基因,以预测系统发育紧密直系系物集群中的自然选择特征,以了解适应性进化。正向选择是推动直系同源物以特定谱系方式进化和多样化的主要力量。在94个基因中发现了显着的正选择效应,特别是在油质蛋白和TAG脂肪酶中,在44个基因中使用过量的非同义替换进行纯化,而35个基因对选择效应是中性的。在十字花科中未发现对油棕LOX基因的显着选择影响。在低花生的T谱系油质蛋白和LOX基因中检测到大量影响选择特征的有害突变。T谱系油质蛋白基因主要涉及花药,绒毡层和花药壁形态发生。在蓖麻和芝麻中,>85%的PLD基因处于选择状态,而芥菜和向日葵的选择压力较低。硬脂质,在脂滴组织中起重要作用的caleosin和SEIPINs主要在种子中表达,并且处于相当大的正选择压力下。在旁系同源物和同源物之间表达差异明显,其中一个基因与另一个基因相比具有功能优势。与异味相关的LOX基因Glyma.13g347500在发芽期间未表达,而是其旁系Glyma.13g347600在甘氨酸max中显示表达。PLD-α基因在除种子外的所有组织中均有表达,δ基因在种子和分生组织中表达,而β和γ基因在叶片中表达。
    结论:参与种子萌发和脂质代谢的基因处于强阳性选择状态,尽管物种差异是可辨别的。本研究鉴定了提高种子油含量和发芽的合适候选基因,其中定向选择可以变得更加富有成果。
    BACKGROUND: Oil bodies or lipid droplets (LDs) in the cytosol are the subcellular storage compartments of seeds and the sites of lipid metabolism providing energy to the germinating seeds. Major LD-associated proteins are lipoxygenases, phospholipaseD, oleosins, TAG-lipases, steroleosins, caleosins and SEIPINs; involved in facilitating germination and enhancing peroxidation resulting in off-flavours. However, how natural selection is balancing contradictory processes in lipid-rich seeds remains evasive. The present study was aimed at the prediction of selection signatures among orthologous clades in major oilseeds and the correlation of selection effect with gene expression.
    RESULTS: The LD-associated genes from the major oil-bearing crops were analyzed to predict natural selection signatures in phylogenetically close-knit ortholog clusters to understand adaptive evolution. Positive selection was the major force driving the evolution and diversification of orthologs in a lineage-specific manner. Significant positive selection effects were found in 94 genes particularly in oleosin and TAG-lipases, purifying with excess of non-synonymous substitution in 44 genes while 35 genes were neutral to selection effects. No significant selection impact was noticed in Brassicaceae as against LOX genes of oil palm. A heavy load of deleterious mutations affecting selection signatures was detected in T-lineage oleosins and LOX genes of Arachis hypogaea. The T-lineage oleosin genes were involved in mainly anther, tapetum and anther wall morphogenesis. In Ricinus communis and Sesamum indicum > 85% of PLD genes were under selection whereas selection pressures were low in Brassica juncea and Helianthus annuus. Steroleosin, caleosin and SEIPINs with large roles in lipid droplet organization expressed mostly in seeds and were under considerable positive selection pressures. Expression divergence was evident among paralogs and homeologs with one gene attaining functional superiority compared to the other. The LOX gene Glyma.13g347500 associated with off-flavor was not expressed during germination, rather its paralog Glyma.13g347600 showed expression in Glycine max. PLD-α genes were expressed on all the tissues except the seed,δ genes in seed and meristem while β and γ genes expressed in the leaf.
    CONCLUSIONS: The genes involved in seed germination and lipid metabolism were under strong positive selection, although species differences were discernable. The present study identifies suitable candidate genes enhancing seed oil content and germination wherein directional selection can become more fruitful.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    自人格生活节奏综合症(POLS)假设首次提出以来,已有十多年的研究,在物种内部几乎没有支持它。缺乏实验控制,面对高度不稳定的行为和代谢特征,采样不足,和特质相关性的上下文依赖性被认为是原因。这里,我认为,人为选择和/或使用现有的选定线代表了一种强大但未充分利用的方法,可以促进我们对POLS的理解。为了说明这种潜力,我对比较行为的研究进行了重点审查,新陈代谢,人工选择的快速生长的虹鳟鱼相对于野生未选择的菌株的生长和存活,在实验室和现场的不同食物和风险条件下。静息代谢率,食物摄入量,以及增强进食但增加能量消耗的行为(活动,侵略,大胆),在成对的对比中,快速应变都更高,在所有食物和风险条件下,在实验室和现场。在几乎所有食物和风险情况下,快速鱼的生长速度都更快,除非食物高度有限(或不存在),在低或零捕食风险下有更高的生存率,但在高风险下生存率较低。在POLS研究中很少考虑的其他几个性状在快速品系中也较高,包括最大游泳速度,和激素(生长激素(GH),甲状腺激素(T3)和胰岛素样生长因子(IGF-1)。我的结论是:(I)POLS假设的假设和预测得到了很好的支持,和(Ii)上下文依赖性基本上不存在,但当存在时,揭示了食物获取和捕食风险之间的权衡。这篇重点综述强调了人工选择在测试POLS想法中的潜力,并有望激发使用其他动物的进一步研究。
    More than a decade of study since the personality pace-of-life syndrome (POLS) hypotheses were first proposed, there is little support for it within species. Lack of experimental control, insufficient sampling in the face of highly labile behavioural and metabolic traits, and context dependency of trait correlations are suggested as reasons. Here, I argue that artificial selection and/or use of existing selected lines represents a powerful but under-used approach to furthering our understanding of the POLS. To illustrate this potential, I conducted a focussed review of studies that compared the behaviour, metabolism, growth and survival of an artificially selected fast-growing rainbow trout relative to wild unselected strains, under varying food and risk conditions in the laboratory and field. Resting metabolic rate, food intake, and behaviours that enhance feeding but increase energy expenditure (activity, aggression, boldness), were all higher in the fast strain in paired contrasts, under all food and risk conditions, both in the laboratory and the field. Fast-strain fish grew faster in almost every food and risk situation except where food was highly limited (or absent), had higher survival under low or zero predation risk, but had lower survival under high risk. Several other traits rarely considered in POLS studies were also higher in the fast strain, including maximum swimming speed, and hormones (growth hormone (GH), thyroid hormone (T3) and insulin-like growth factor (IGF-1)). I conclude: (i) assumptions and predictions of the POLS hypothesis are well supported, and (ii) context-dependency was largely absent, but when present revealed trade-offs between food acquisition and predation risk. This focused review highlights the potential of artificial selection in testing POLS ideas, and will hopefully motivate further studies using other animals.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    非生物胁迫耐受性育种计划提出了一系列观点,然而,最终的解决方案仍然难以捉摸,每种方法都有自己的优点和缺点。本研究系统地评估了现有的方法,在最佳和胁迫条件下,比较不同基因型和选择性状的植物表现。目的是阐明普遍存在的歧义。使用随机区组设计与五个对照品种一起评估了十个纯合品系(F8代),在水分充足和缺水的条件下进行了四次重复。值得注意的是,十个纯合品系中的六个仅在充分浇水的条件下培养(F3至F7),而四条线路经历了缺水状况(F3至F7)。所有五个对照品种都在这两种条件下进行了栽培。这些发现强调了针对特定环境紧急情况进行量身定制的育种计划的必要性,认识到个体特征对不同条件表现出不同的反应。很明显,某些性状在水分充足的条件下表现出明显的差异,而其他人则表明在缺水条件下分化加剧。重要的是,我们的分析揭示了灌溉制度和选择特征之间的显著相互作用,这有助于强调基因型和环境压力之间微妙的相互作用。
    Abiotic stress tolerance breeding programs present a spectrum of perspectives, yet definitive solutions remain elusive, with each approach carrying its own set of advantages and disadvantages. This study systematically evaluates extant methodologies, comparing plant performance across varied genotypes and selection traits under optimal and stress conditions. The objective is to elucidate prevailing ambiguities. Ten homozygous lines (F8 generation) were assessed using a randomized block design alongside five control varieties, with four replicates cultivated under well-watered and deficit water conditions. It is noteworthy that six of the ten homozygous lines were cultivated exclusively under well-watered conditions (F3 to F7), while four lines experienced deficit water conditions (F3 to F7). All five control varieties underwent cultivation under both conditions. These findings underscore the necessity for tailored breeding programs attuned to specific environmental exigencies, recognizing that individual traits manifest divergent responses to varying conditions. It is evident that certain traits exhibit marked disparities under well-watered conditions, while others evince heightened differentiation under water deficit conditions. Significantly, our analysis reveals a pronounced interaction between irrigation regimes and selection traits, which serves to underscore the nuanced interplay between genotype and environmental stress.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    广玉兰是我国极为濒危的特有树种。为了阐明洛龙根的遗传基础,我们使用整合植物树皮的样本进行了全面的转录组分析,叶子,和鲜花。从头转录组组装产生177,046个转录物和42,518个编码序列。值得注意的是,我们鉴定了796个物种特异性基因,富含细胞器基因调控和防御反应。密码子使用偏倚分析显示,突变偏倚似乎是塑造物种遗传结构的选择的主要驱动因素。基于同源和直系同源基因对的dN/dS值的进化分析表明,纯化选择占主导地位,表明对大多数基因的强烈进化约束。与木兰的比较转录组学分析鉴定了大约1000个超保守基因,富含必需的细胞过程,如转录调控,蛋白质合成,和基因组稳定性。有趣的是,与sinica和厚朴相比,仅检测到有限数量的511个快速进化的基因。这些基因富集在与适应特定环境相关的代谢过程中,潜在地限制了物种扩大其范围的能力。我们的发现有助于理解M.lotungensis的遗传结构,并表明适应性基因数量不足导致其濒危状态。
    Magnolia lotungensis is an extremely endangered endemic tree in China. To elucidate the genetic basis of M. lotungensis, we performed a comprehensive transcriptome analysis using a sample integrating the plant\'s bark, leaves, and flowers. De novo transcriptome assembly yielded 177,046 transcripts and 42,518 coding sequences. Notably, we identified 796 species-specific genes enriched in organelle gene regulation and defense responses. A codon usage bias analysis revealed that mutation bias appears to be the primary driver of selection in shaping the species\' genetic architecture. An evolutionary analysis based on dN/dS values of paralogous and orthologous gene pairs indicated a predominance of purifying selection, suggesting strong evolutionary constraints on most genes. A comparative transcriptomic analysis with Magnolia sinica identified approximately 1000 ultra-conserved genes, enriched in essential cellular processes such as transcriptional regulation, protein synthesis, and genome stability. Interestingly, only a limited number of 511 rapidly evolving genes under positive selection were detected compared to M. sinica and Magnolia kuangsiensis. These genes were enriched in metabolic processes associated with adaptation to specific environments, potentially limiting the species\' ability to expand its range. Our findings contribute to understanding the genetic architecture of M. lotungensis and suggest that an insufficient number of adaptive genes contribute to its endangered status.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    旧世界的鹌鹑,Coturnixcoturnix(普通鹌鹑)和Coturnixjaponica(日本鹌鹑),形态相似,但占据不同的地理范围。这项研究旨在通过对其线粒体基因组的全面分析来阐明其进化轨迹和祖先分布模式。有丝分裂基因组分析显示高度结构保守,相同的翻译机制,两个物种的进化压力相似。选择分析显示,由于进化史上的环境变化和适应要求,在Coturnix谱系中对nad4基因树进行了积极选择的重要证据。发散时间估计意味着Coturnix物种之间的多样化发生在上世纪中期(13.89Ma),它们目前的分布主要是由分散而不是全球替代事件形成的。系统发育分析表明,coturnix和粳稻之间有着密切的关系,在更新世时期,发散估计为2.25Ma。祖先范围重建表明,Coturnix进化枝的祖先分布在东方地区。C.coturnix随后分散到欧亚大陆和非洲,和C.japonica到东亚。我们假设C.coturnix和C.japonica的当前地理分布来自其独特的扩散策略,发展到逃避种间地域性,并受到青藏高原地理限制的影响。这项研究促进了我们对导致C.coturnix和C.japonica多样化的生物地理和进化过程的理解,为该属的进一步研究奠定了重要基础。
    The Old-World quails, Coturnix coturnix (common quail) and Coturnix japonica (Japanese quail), are morphologically similar yet occupy distinct geographic ranges. This study aimed to elucidate their evolutionary trajectory and ancestral distribution patterns through a thorough analysis of their mitochondrial genomes. Mitogenomic analysis revealed high structural conservation, identical translational mechanisms, and similar evolutionary pressures in both species. Selection analysis revealed significant evidence of positive selection across the Coturnix lineage for the nad4 gene tree owing to environmental changes and acclimatization requirements during its evolutionary history. Divergence time estimations imply that diversification among Coturnix species occurred in the mid-Miocene (13.89 Ma), and their current distributions were primarily shaped by dispersal rather than global vicariance events. Phylogenetic analysis indicates a close relationship between C. coturnix and C. japonica, with divergence estimated at 2.25 Ma during the Pleistocene epoch. Ancestral range reconstructions indicate that the ancestors of the Coturnix clade were distributed over the Oriental region. C. coturnix subsequently dispersed to Eurasia and Africa, and C. japonica to eastern Asia. We hypothesize that the current geographic distributions of C. coturnix and C. japonica result from their unique dispersal strategies, developed to evade interspecific territoriality and influenced by the Tibetan Plateau\'s geographic constraints. This study advances our understanding of the biogeographic and evolutionary processes leading to the diversification of C. coturnix and C. japonica, laying important groundwork for further research on this genus.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    适当的开花期是玉米育种的重要选择标准。它对玉米品种的生态适应性起着至关重要的作用。探讨开花时间的遗传基础,使用由379个多亲本DH系组成的关联组进行GWAS和GS分析。DH群体进行了几天的表型分析,以进行抽穗(DTT),花粉脱落天数(DTP),以及在不同环境中的天数(DTS)。遗传力为82.75%,86.09%,DTT为85.26%,DTP,和DTS,分别。使用FarmCPU模型的GWAS分析确定了分布在3、8、9和10号染色体上的10个单核苷酸多态性(SNP),这些多态性与开花时间相关的性状显着相关。BLINK模型的GWAS分析鉴定了分布在染色体1、3、8、9和10上的7个SNP,这些SNP与开花时间相关的性状显着相关。三个SNPs3_198946071、9_146646966和9_152140631显示多效效应,表明DTT之间存在显著的遗传相关性,DTP,和DTS。共检测到24个候选基因。从GWAS检测到100个显著相关的SNP,实现了相对较高的预测精度,最佳培训人口规模为70%。这项研究为更好地理解开花时间相关性状的遗传结构,并为GS提供了最佳策略。
    An appropriate flowering period is an important selection criterion in maize breeding. It plays a crucial role in the ecological adaptability of maize varieties. To explore the genetic basis of flowering time, GWAS and GS analyses were conducted using an associating panel consisting of 379 multi-parent DH lines. The DH population was phenotyped for days to tasseling (DTT), days to pollen-shedding (DTP), and days to silking (DTS) in different environments. The heritability was 82.75%, 86.09%, and 85.26% for DTT, DTP, and DTS, respectively. The GWAS analysis with the FarmCPU model identified 10 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) distributed on chromosomes 3, 8, 9, and 10 that were significantly associated with flowering time-related traits. The GWAS analysis with the BLINK model identified seven SNPs distributed on chromosomes 1, 3, 8, 9, and 10 that were significantly associated with flowering time-related traits. Three SNPs 3_198946071, 9_146646966, and 9_152140631 showed a pleiotropic effect, indicating a significant genetic correlation between DTT, DTP, and DTS. A total of 24 candidate genes were detected. A relatively high prediction accuracy was achieved with 100 significantly associated SNPs detected from GWAS, and the optimal training population size was 70%. This study provides a better understanding of the genetic architecture of flowering time-related traits and provides an optimal strategy for GS.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:层的育种强调卵相关性状的持续选择,比如产蛋,鸡蛋质量和蛋壳,这提高了他们的生产力,满足了市场的需求。随着繁殖过程的继续,层的基因组纯合性逐渐增加,导致纯合性(ROH)运行的出现。因此,ROH分析可以与其他方法结合使用以检测选择特征并鉴定与层育种中的各种重要性状相关的候选基因。
    结果:在这项研究中,我们从罗德岛红种群中的686只母鸡中获得了全基因组测序数据,该种群经历了连续15代的密集人工选择.我们进行了全基因组ROH分析,并利用多种方法来检测选择的特征。在整个人群中总共发现了141,720个ROH段,其中大多数(97.35%)长度小于3Mb。确定了23个ROH岛,它们与一些带有选择签名的区域重叠,通过多信号去相关复合方法(DCMS)检测。发现了60个基因,功能注释分析揭示了它们在生长中的可能作用,发展,免疫和信号层。此外,对44个层表型进行了包括DCMS和ROH的双尾分析,以找出个体的顶部和底部10%表型的亚组之间的基因组差异。结合GWAS的结果,我们观察到,与性状显著相关的区域在高低亚组之间也表现出选择特征.我们在GGA1的25Mb区域附近确定了与卵重显着相关的区域,该区域在低卵重亚群中表现出选择特征并具有较高的基因组纯合性。这表明该地区可能在鸡蛋重量的下降中起作用。
    结论:总之,通过对ROH的联合分析,选择签名,和GWAS,我们确定了几个与层的生产特征相关的基因组区域,层基因组的研究提供参考。
    BACKGROUND: The breeding of layers emphasizes the continual selection of egg-related traits, such as egg production, egg quality and eggshell, which enhance their productivity and meet the demand of market. As the breeding process continued, the genomic homozygosity of layers gradually increased, resulting in the emergence of runs of homozygosity (ROH). Therefore, ROH analysis can be used in conjunction with other methods to detect selection signatures and identify candidate genes associated with various important traits in layer breeding.
    RESULTS: In this study, we generated whole-genome sequencing data from 686 hens in a Rhode Island Red population that had undergone fifteen consecutive generations of intensive artificial selection. We performed a genome-wide ROH analysis and utilized multiple methods to detect signatures of selection. A total of 141,720 ROH segments were discovered in whole population, and most of them (97.35%) were less than 3 Mb in length. Twenty-three ROH islands were identified, and they overlapped with some regions bearing selection signatures, which were detected by the De-correlated composite of multiple signals methods (DCMS). Sixty genes were discovered and functional annotation analysis revealed the possible roles of them in growth, development, immunity and signaling in layers. Additionally, two-tailed analyses including DCMS and ROH for 44 phenotypes of layers were conducted to find out the genomic differences between subgroups of top and bottom 10% phenotype of individuals. Combining the results of GWAS, we observed that regions significantly associated with traits also exhibited selection signatures between the high and low subgroups. We identified a region significantly associated with egg weight near the 25 Mb region of GGA 1, which exhibited selection signatures and has higher genomic homozygosity in the low egg weight subpopulation. This suggests that the region may be play a role in the decline in egg weight.
    CONCLUSIONS: In summary, through the combined analysis of ROH, selection signatures, and GWAS, we identified several genomic regions that associated with the production traits of layers, providing reference for the study of layer genome.
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    活性污泥是污水生物处理的核心,因为它有助于去除与污水相关的污染物,粪便细菌,和污水中的病原体通过半控制的微生物生态学。据推测,水平基因转移促进了抗生素抗性基因在污水处理厂内的传播,部分原因是污水中残留的抗生素。然而,令人惊讶的是,几乎没有证据表明污水相关抗生素通过水平基因转移或其他方式在污水处理厂选择抗性。我们讨论了污水相关抗生素在促进抗生素耐药性方面的作用,该作用是使用实验室规模的序批式反应器饲喂现场收集的废水,宏基因组测序,和我们最近开发的生物信息工具Kairos。这里,我们发现确证的证据表明,污水中抗生素水平的波动与抗生素抗性基因的水平基因转移有关,微生物生态学,以及活性污泥中抗性基因命运的微多样性水平差异。
    Activated sludge is the centerpiece of biological wastewater treatment, as it facilitates removal of sewage-associated pollutants, fecal bacteria, and pathogens from wastewater through semi-controlled microbial ecology. It has been hypothesized that horizontal gene transfer facilitates the spread of antibiotic resistance genes within the wastewater treatment plant, in part because of the presence of residual antibiotics in sewage. However, there has been surprisingly little evidence to suggest that sewage-associated antibiotics select for resistance at wastewater treatment plants via horizontal gene transfer or otherwise. We addressed the role of sewage-associated antibiotics in promoting antibiotic resistance using lab-scale sequencing batch reactors fed field-collected wastewater, metagenomic sequencing, and our recently developed bioinformatic tool Kairos. Here, we found confirmatory evidence that fluctuating levels of antibiotics in sewage are associated with horizontal gene transfer of antibiotic resistance genes, microbial ecology, and microdiversity-level differences in resistance gene fate in activated sludge.
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    当适应的遗传进化使种群免于环境变化后的衰落或灭绝时,就会发生进化拯救。对农药抗性的演变是环境突变的特殊情况,在(非常)强的选择下,对一个或几个影响很大的从头抗性突变进行拯救。这里,建立了具有密度依赖性种群变化的进化拯救种群遗传模型,重点是得出对阻力管理很重要的结果。大规模随机模拟用于生成观测值,它们是使用分析近似精确预测的。关键结果包括抵抗时间和种群灭绝概率的概率密度函数。阻力时间的分布呈现滞后期,狭窄的峰和长尾巴。令人惊讶的是,抵抗的平均时间会随着选择的强度而增加,因为,如果突变没有在早期发生,那么它的出现是由减少人口规模的农药延迟。种群灭绝的可能性显示出急剧的转变,因为当灭绝可能时,这也很有可能。因此,人口抑制和(局部)根除可以是理论上可以实现的目标,作为延缓抗性进化的新策略。
    Evolutionary rescue occurs when the genetic evolution of adaptation saves a population from decline or extinction after environmental change. The evolution of resistance to pesticides is a special scenario of abrupt environmental change, where rescue occurs under (very) strong selection for one or a few de novo resistance mutations of large effect. Here, a population genetic model of evolutionary rescue with density-dependent population change is developed, with a focus on deriving results that are important to resistance management. Massive stochastic simulations are used to generate observations, which are accurately predicted using analytical approximations. Key results include the probability density function for the time to resistance and the probability of population extinction. The distribution of resistance times shows a lag period, a narrow peak and a long tail. Surprisingly, the mean time to resistance can increase with the strength of selection because, if a mutation does not occur early on, then its emergence is delayed by the pesticide reducing the population size. The probability of population extinction shows a sharp transition, in that when extinction is possible, it is also highly likely. Consequently, population suppression and (local) eradication can be theoretically achievable goals, as novel strategies to delay resistance evolution.
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