这项研究考察了2022年2月23日至2022年5月31日俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突期间国际能源价格飙升的经济影响。值得注意的是,通过应用CGE模型,这项研究提供了对宏观经济和工业层面能源政策的见解,强调该模型在分析地缘政治压力下复杂的经济互动时的效用。研究结果表明:(1)俄罗斯,一个重要的能源生产国,由于制裁而面临严重的经济挫折,其GDP收缩了5.5%,家庭收入下降4%,消费者支出下降3.5%。随之而来的是国内投资大幅减少6%,产量下降5%,以及社会福利指标的下降。(二)其他能源生产国或地区,例如中东产油国,澳大利亚,加拿大,墨西哥,东南亚,从全球能源市场的“挤出效应”中获得了经济利益。“这些地区的GDP增长从2%到4.5%不等,产出增长3%-6%,家庭收入和消费改善约3%-5%。然而,由于当地能源成本上涨,国内投资下降了1%-2.5%,抑制了这些好处。(3)发达和发展中地区,遭受不利影响,包括美国,英国,欧盟,Japan,中国,南亚,中东非产油国,和非洲。这些地区的GDP下降了0.5%-3%,家庭收入下降2%-4%,消费率降低1.5%-3.5%。这些经济体的通货膨胀率高达2%,进一步加剧了经济压力。这项研究为全球各国政府和政策制定者应对乌克兰危机引发的能源危机带来的挑战提供了宝贵的见解。强调战略能源政策调整和经济弹性规划的必要性。
This study examines the economic impact of soaring international energy prices during the Russia-Ukraine conflict from February 23, 2022, to May 31, 2022. Notably, by applying a CGE model, this study offers insights into energy policies at both macroeconomic and industrial levels, emphasizing the model\'s utility in analyzing complex economic interactions under geopolitical stress. Findings indicate that: (1) Russia, a critical energy-producing country, faced severe economic setbacks due to sanctions, with its GDP contracting by 5.5 %, household income decreasing by 4 %, and consumer spending dropping by 3.5 %. This was accompanied by a significant reduction in domestic investment by 6 %, a decline in output by 5 %, and a decrease in societal welfare indicators. (2) Other energy-producing countries or regions, such as the Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, Australia, Canada, Mexico, and Southeast Asia, experienced economic benefits from the global energy market\'s \"crowding-out effect.\" These regions saw an increase in GDP ranging from 2 % to 4.5 %, output growth by 3 %-6 %, and household income and consumption improvements by approximately 3 %-5 %. However, these benefits were tempered by a 1 %-2.5 % decline in domestic investment due to rising local energy costs. (3) Developed and developing regions, suffered adverse impacts, including the US, UK, EU, Japan, China, South Asia, Middle Eastern non-oil-producing countries, and Africa. These regions reported a decrease in GDP by 0.5 %-3 %, a decline in household income by 2 %-4 %, and lower consumption rates by 1.5 %-3.5 %. The economic strain was further exacerbated by an inflation increase of up to 2 % across these economies. This research offers valuable insights for governments and policymakers globally to address the challenges posed by the Ukraine crisis-induced energy crisis, underscoring the need for strategic energy policy adjustments and economic resilience planning.