PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a growing concern worldwide and poses serious threats to regional and global food security. Using monthly trade data for maize, rice, and wheat from 2016/1 to 2023/12, this paper constructs three international crop trade networks and an aggregate international food trade network. We aim to examine the structural changes following the occurrence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We find significant shifts in the number of edges, average in-degree, density, and efficiency in the third quarter of 2022, particularly in the international wheat trade network. Additionally, we have shown that political reasons have caused more pronounced changes in the trade connections between the economies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia than with Ukraine. This paper could provide insights into the negative impact of geopolitical conflicts on the global food system and encourage a series of effective strategies to mitigate the negative impact of the conflict on global food trade.
摘要：
俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突在全球范围内日益受到关注，对地区和全球粮食安全构成严重威胁。使用玉米的月度贸易数据，大米,2016/1至2023/12年，本文构建了三个国际作物贸易网络和一个国际粮食贸易网络。我们旨在研究俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突发生后的结构变化。我们发现边的数量发生了显著的变化，平均程度，密度,和2022年第三季度的效率，特别是在国际小麦贸易网。此外,我们已经表明，政治原因导致北大西洋公约组织经济与俄罗斯之间的贸易联系发生了比与乌克兰更明显的变化。本文可以提供有关地缘政治冲突对全球粮食系统的负面影响的见解，并鼓励采取一系列有效策略来减轻冲突对全球粮食贸易的负面影响。
