UNASSIGNED: The Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in Yangquan, China, has taken a series of preventive and control measures in response to the increasing trend of Kala-Azar. In response, we propose a new model to more scientifically evaluate the effectiveness of these interventions.
UNASSIGNED: We obtained the incidence data of Kala-Azar from 2017 to 2021 from the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Yangquan. We constructed Poisson segmented regression model, harmonic Poisson segmental regression model, and improved harmonic Poisson segmented regression model, and used the three models to explain the intervention effect, respectively. Finally, we selected the optimal model by comparing the fitting effects of the three models.
UNASSIGNED: The primary analysis showed an underlying upward trend of Kala-Azar before intervention [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.045, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.027-1.063, p < 0.001]. In terms of long-term effects, the rise of Kala-Azar slowed down significantly after the intervention (IRR:0.960, 95%CI:0.927-0.995, p = 0.026), and the risk of Kala-Azar increased by 0.3% for each additional month after intervention (β1  + β3  = 0.003, IRR = 1.003). The results of the model fitting effect showed that the improved harmonic Poisson segmental regression model had the best fitting effect, and the values of MSE, MAE, and RMSE were the lowest, which were 0.017, 0.101, and 0.130, respectively.
UNASSIGNED: In the long term, the intervention measures taken by the Yangquan CDC can well curb the upward trend of Kala-Azar. The improved harmonic Poisson segmented regression model has higher fitting performance, which can provide a certain scientific reference for the evaluation of the intervention effect of seasonal infectious diseases.

Single-molecule surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SM-SERS) holds great potential to revolutionize ultratrace quantitative analysis. However, achieving quantitative SM-SERS is challenging because of strong intensity fluctuation and blinking characteristics. In this study, we reveal the relation P = 1 - e-α between the statistical SERS probability P and the microscopic average molecule number α in SERS spectra, which lays the physical foundation for a statistical route to implement SM-SERS quantitation. Utilizing SERS probability calibration, we achieve quantitative SERS analysis with batch-to-batch robustness, extremely wide detection range of concentration covering 9 orders of magnitude, and ultralow detection limit far below the single-molecule level. These results indicate the physical feasibility of robust SERS quantitation through statistical route and certainly open a new avenue for implementing SERS as a practical analysis tool in various application scenarios.

Droplet-based single-cell sequencing techniques rely on the fundamental assumption that each droplet encapsulates a single cell, enabling individual cell omics profiling. However, the inevitable issue of multiplets, where two or more cells are encapsulated within a single droplet, can lead to spurious cell type annotations and obscure true biological findings. The issue of multiplets is exacerbated in single-cell multiomics settings, where integrating cross-modality information for clustering can inadvertently promote the aggregation of multiplet clusters and increase the risk of erroneous cell type annotations. Here, we propose a compound Poisson model-based framework for multiplet detection in single-cell multiomics data. Leveraging experimental cell hashing results as the ground truth for multiplet status, we conducted trimodal DOGMA-seq experiments and generated 17 benchmarking datasets from two tissues, involving a total of 280,123 droplets. We demonstrated that the proposed method is an essential tool for integrating cross-modality multiplet signals, effectively eliminating multiplet clusters in single-cell multiomics data-a task at which the benchmarked single-omics methods proved inadequate.

The current Poisson factor models often assume that the factors are unknown, which overlooks the explanatory potential of certain observable covariates. This study focuses on high dimensional settings, where the number of the count response variables and/or covariates can diverge as the sample size increases. A covariate-augmented overdispersed Poisson factor model is proposed to jointly perform a high-dimensional Poisson factor analysis and estimate a large coefficient matrix for overdispersed count data. A group of identifiability conditions is provided to theoretically guarantee computational identifiability. We incorporate the interdependence of both response variables and covariates by imposing a low-rank constraint on the large coefficient matrix. To address the computation challenges posed by nonlinearity, two high-dimensional latent matrices, and the low-rank constraint, we propose a novel variational estimation scheme that combines Laplace and Taylor approximations. We also develop a criterion based on a singular value ratio to determine the number of factors and the rank of the coefficient matrix. Comprehensive simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in estimation accuracy and computational efficiency. The practical merit of our method is demonstrated by an application to the CITE-seq dataset. A flexible implementation of our proposed method is available in the R package COAP.

Quantitative detection of various molecules at very low concentrations in complex mixtures has been the main objective in many fields of science and engineering, from the detection of cancer-causing mutagens and early disease markers to environmental pollutants and bioterror agents1-5. Moreover, technologies that can detect these analytes without external labels or modifications are extremely valuable and often preferred6. In this regard, surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy can detect molecular species in complex mixtures on the basis only of their intrinsic and unique vibrational signatures7. However, the development of surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy for this purpose has been challenging so far because of uncontrollable signal heterogeneity and poor reproducibility at low analyte concentrations8. Here, as a proof of concept, we show that, using digital (nano)colloid-enhanced Raman spectroscopy, reproducible quantification of a broad range of target molecules at very low concentrations can be routinely achieved with single-molecule counting, limited only by the Poisson noise of the measurement process. As metallic colloidal nanoparticles that enhance these vibrational signatures, including hydroxylamine-reduced-silver colloids, can be fabricated at large scale under routine conditions, we anticipate that digital (nano)colloid-enhanced Raman spectroscopy will become the technology of choice for the reliable and ultrasensitive detection of various analytes, including those of great importance for human health.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a risk factor of cardiovascular disease. Associations between PM2.5 compositions and cardiovascular disease are a point of special interest but inconsistent. This study aimed to explore the cardiovascular effects of heavy metal(loid) compositions in PM2.5. Data for mortality, air pollutants and meteorological factors in Anyang, China from 2017 to 2021 were collected. Heavy metal(loid) in PM2.5 were monitored and examined monthly. A Case-crossover design was applied to the estimated data set. The interquartile range increase in cadmium (Cd), antimony (Sb) and arsenic (As) at lag 1 was associated with increment of 8.1% (95% CI: 3.3, 13.2), 4.8% (95% CI: 0.2, 9.5) and 3.5% (95% CI: 1.1, 6.0) cardiovascular mortality. Selenium in lag 2 was inversely associated with cerebrovascular mortality (RR = 0.920 95% CI: 0.862, 0.983). Current-day exposure of aluminum was positively associated with mortality from ischemic heart disease (RR = 1.083 95% CI: 1.001, 1.172). Stratified analysis indicated sex, age and season modified the cardiovascular effects of As (P < 0.05). Our study reveals that heavy metal(loid) play key roles in adverse effects of PM2.5. Cd, Sb and As were significant risk factors of cardiovascular mortality. These findings have potential implications for accurate air pollutants control and management to improve public health benefits.

Excessive zeros in multivariate count data are often observed in scenarios of biomedicine and public health. To provide a better analysis on this type of data, we first develop a marginalized multivariate zero-inflated Poisson (MZIP) regression model to directly interpret the overall exposure effects on marginal means. Then, we define a multiple Pearson residual for our newly developed MZIP regression model by simultaneously taking heterogeneity and correlation into consideration. Furthermore, a new model averaging prediction method is introduced based on the multiple Pearson residual, and the asymptotical optimality of this model averaging prediction is proved. Simulations and two empirical applications in medicine are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Human microbiome research has gained increasing importance due to its critical roles in comprehending human health and disease. Within the realm of microbiome research, the data generated often involves operational taxonomic unit counts, which can frequently present challenges such as over-dispersion and zero-inflation. To address dispersion-related concerns, the generalized Poisson model offers a flexible solution, effectively handling data characterized by over-dispersion, equi-dispersion, and under-dispersion. Furthermore, the realm of zero-inflated generalized Poisson models provides a strategic avenue to simultaneously tackle both over-dispersion and zero-inflation. The phenomenon of zero-inflation frequently stems from the heterogeneous nature of study populations. It emerges when specific microbial taxa fail to thrive in the microbial community of certain subjects, consequently resulting in a consistent count of zeros for these individuals. This subset of subjects represents a latent class, where their zeros originate from the genuine absence of the microbial taxa. In this paper, we introduce a novel testing methodology designed to uncover such latent classes within generalized Poisson regression models. We establish a closed-form test statistic and deduce its asymptotic distribution based on estimating equations. To assess its efficacy, we conduct an extensive array of simulation studies, and further apply the test to detect latent classes in human gut microbiome data from the Bogalusa Heart Study.

In recent years, with the increasing number and complexity of infectious diseases, the idea of using control charts to monitor public health and disease has been proposed. In this paper, we study multivariate control charts for monitoring a bivariate integer-valued autocorrelation process with bivariate Poisson distribution and select the optimal control scheme by comparing the performance of control charts. Furthermore, the meningococcal patient event in two states in Australia serves as an example to illustrate the application of these methods. The results show that the D exponentially weighted moving average control scheme can detect the changes in the mean value faster, which is a significant advantage.

Wastewater-based epidemiology has proved useful for monitoring the COVID-19 infection dynamics in communities. However, in regions of low prevalence, low concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater make this difficult. Here, we used real-time reverse-transcription PCR (RT-qPCR) to monitor SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater from October 2020 to December 2022 during the third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth waves of the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan. Viral RNA was below the limit of detection in all samples during the third and fourth waves. However, by counting the number of positive replicates in qPCR of each sample, we found that the positive ratio to all replicates in wastewater was significantly correlated with the number of clinically confirmed cases by the date of symptom onset during the third, fourth, and fifth waves. Time-step analysis indicated that, for 2 days either side of symptom onset, COVID-19 patients excreted in their feces large amounts of virus that wastewater surveillance could detect. We also demonstrated that the viral genome copy number in wastewater, as estimated from the positive ratio of SARSA-CoV-2 RNA, was correlated with the number of clinically confirmed cases. The positive count method is thus useful for tracing COVID-19 dynamics in regions of low prevalence.