Mongolia

蒙古国
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    晚更新世期间的岩屑小型化现象有时与人工制品标准化和尖端效率的提高相吻合-可能反映了小型,锋利的工件作为复合切削工具和狩猎武器的可互换刀片。在海洋同位素第二阶段,东亚北部的上旧石器时代工具制造商专门使用压力技术来制造小型,高度标准化的石器制品称为微刀片。然而,目前很少有人知道微型刀片是如何影响尖端效率的工具包,他们是其中的一部分。我们将三种分析尖端效率的方法应用于最近从蒙古Tolbor-17发掘的两个上旧石器时代组合,记录了微型刀片技术引入TolborValley之前和之后的时期。结合了空白切削刃长度和质量之间的异速关系的模型表明,两个周期之间的效率没有差异。而两种更传统的方法都表明显著增加。只有当通过模拟对微型刀片样品进行人工膨胀时,才能观察到提高切削刃效率的潜力。我们的结果突显了与在组装水平上发现和解释考古前沿效率差异有关的挑战。
    The phenomenon of lithic miniaturization during the Late Pleistocene at times coincided with increased artifact standardization and cutting edge efficiency-likely reflecting the use of small, sharp artifacts as interchangeable inserts for composite cutting tools and hunting weapons. During Marine Isotope Stage 2, Upper Paleolithic toolmakers in northern East Asia specifically used pressure techniques to make small, highly standardized lithic artifacts called microblades. However, little is currently known about how microblades affected the cutting edge efficiency of the toolkits they were a part of. We applied three methods of analyzing cutting edge efficiency to two Upper Paleolithic assemblages recently excavated from Tolbor-17, Mongolia, that document the periods before and after the introduction of microblade technology to the Tolbor Valley. A model incorporating allometric relationships between blank cutting edge length and mass suggests no difference in efficiency between the two periods, while two more conventional approaches both indicate a significant increase. The potential for improved cutting edge efficiency is only observed when the microblade sample is artificially inflated via simulation. Our results highlight challenges related to detecting and interpreting archaeological differences in cutting edge efficiency at the assemblage level.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    城市扩张一直在迅速增长,预计到2030年全球将增长两倍。城市化的影响对环境和经济发展产生不利影响。住宅用地几乎占城市面积的三分之一,严重影响了城市的居民。蒙古的首都,乌兰巴托,已经大大扩展了,特别是在城市周边地区,那里的生活条件差,缺乏基本的城市服务。本文旨在基于三个主要类别(宜居性,负担能力,和可访问性)使用模糊逻辑的15个标准。通过研究,我们已经确定了一些潜在的适合进一步发展的住宅区,例如位于城市南部的公寓住宅区和四个低层Ger区分布在主要运输走廊上。此外,结果表明,整个城镇的空间结构可能正在向多中心格局过渡。然而,城市外围的同心环图案显示了一个关于不受控制的GER区域扩张,这可能会增加该地区的低生活条件。这项研究建议更好的城市蔓延控制政策和更多的房地产市场投资,以确保乌兰巴托的可持续发展目标。
    Urban expansion has been rapidly increasing and is projected to be tripled in 2030 in worldwide. The impact of urbanization has adverse effects on the environment and economic development. Residential lands consist of almost one-third of the urban area and heavily affect the city\'s inhabitants. The capital of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, has been significantly expanded, particularly in the urban periphery where poor living conditions and a lack of essential urban services were identified. The paper aims to conduct a suitability analysis of residential areas in Ulaanbaatar city based on three main categories (livability, affordability, and accessibility) of fifteen criteria using the fuzzy logic. Through the study, we have identified some potential suitable residential areas for further development, such as apartment residential area located in the southern part of the city and four low-rise ger areas were distributed along major transport corridors. Moreover, the results indicated that the spatial structure of the whole town might be in transition to a polycentric pattern. However, a concentric ring pattern in the \'city\'s periphery displayed a concerning uncontrolled ger area expansion, which may increase low living conditions in the area. This study recommends better urban sprawl control policies and more property market investment in the ger area to ensure sustainable development goals in Ulaanbaatar.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    新出现威胁的准备和复原力(PRET)倡议通过倡导综合准备和响应系统以及具有共同传播途径的病原体群体的能力,采取了创新的传播方式进行大流行计划。世界卫生组织(WHO)于2023年发起了这一倡议,并发布了针对呼吸道病原体的PRET模块1。练习PANPRET-1是一个可定制的桌面模拟练习(TTX)软件包,用于补充PRET模块1。演习方案侧重于加强多部门协调能力,风险沟通和社区参与,以及运营决策的触发因素。本文报道了前四个国家实施PANPRET-1演习的经验:库克群岛,哥斯达黎加,黎巴嫩和蒙古。演习结果表明,PANPRET-1可以成为在多部门论坛中测试大流行计划并确定改善关键领域准备和响应的机会的有效工具。在库克群岛的定量评估中,哥斯达黎加和蒙古,高比例的锻炼参与者表明,锻炼的多个方面都设计良好,有利于改善卫生应急准备。黎巴嫩的锻炼参与者提供了定性反馈,表明他们发现锻炼是有益的。进行TTX并根据锻炼结果监测行动计划的执行情况,有助于实现国家拥有的全社会大流行规划愿景。鼓励各国将诸如PANPRET-1之类的TTX纳入持续的活动周期,以改善大流行的准备。
    The Preparedness and Resilience for Emerging Threats (PRET) initiative takes an innovative mode-of-transmission approach to pandemic planning by advocating for integrated preparedness and response systems and capacities for groups of pathogens with common transmission pathways. The World Health Organization (WHO) launched this initiative in 2023 with the publication of PRET Module 1 addressing respiratory pathogens. Exercise PanPRET-1 is a customizable tabletop simulation exercise (TTX) package developed to complement PRET Module 1. The exercise scenario focuses on strengthening capacities for multisectoral coordination, risk communication and community engagement, and the triggers for operational decision-making. This article reports on the experiences of the first four countries to implement Exercise PanPRET-1: Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Lebanon and Mongolia. Exercise outcomes demonstrated that PanPRET-1 can be an effective tool for testing pandemic plans in a multisectoral forum and identifying opportunities to improve preparedness and response in key domains. In quantitative evaluations in Cook Islands, Costa Rica and Mongolia, high proportions of exercise participants indicated that multiple aspects of the exercise were well-designed and were beneficial for improving health emergency preparedness. Exercise participants in Lebanon provided qualitative feedback indicating that they found the exercise to be beneficial. Conducting a TTX and monitoring the implementation of action plans based on exercise findings facilitates a country-owned whole-of-society vision for pandemic planning. Countries are encouraged to incorporate TTX such as Exercise PanPRET-1 into a continuous cycle of activity to improve pandemic preparedness.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    关于肺炎球菌结合疫苗引入对肺炎球菌携带的长期影响,来自亚洲的数据有限。在这里,我们评估了引入13价肺炎球菌结合疫苗(PCV13)对鼻咽肺炎球菌携带患病率的影响,密度和耐药性。在PCV13之前(2015年)和PCV13引入之后(2017年和2022年)进行了横断面运输调查。通过实时PCR从鼻咽拭子中检测和定量肺炎球菌。DNA微阵列用于分子血清分型和推断遗传谱系(全球肺炎球菌序列簇)。该研究包括从家庭保健诊所招募的1461名婴儿(5-8周龄)和1489名幼儿(12-23月龄)。我们显示了PCV13血清型携带的减少(具有非PCV13血清型替代)和PCV13引入后六年幼儿中含有抗性基因的样品比例的减少。我们观察到肺炎球菌鼻咽密度增加。血清型15A,2022年最流行的非疫苗血清型主要由GPSC904组成;9.PCV13血清型携带的减少可能会导致肺炎球菌疾病的减少。对于正在进行的监测,重要的是监测血清型变化,以可能为新疫苗的开发提供信息。
    Limited data from Asia are available on long-term effects of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction on pneumococcal carriage. Here we assess the impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) introduction on nasopharyngeal pneumococcal carriage prevalence, density and antimicrobial resistance. Cross-sectional carriage surveys were conducted pre-PCV13 (2015) and post-PCV13 introduction (2017 and 2022). Pneumococci were detected and quantified by real-time PCR from nasopharyngeal swabs. DNA microarray was used for molecular serotyping and to infer genetic lineage (Global Pneumococcal Sequence Cluster). The study included 1461 infants (5-8 weeks old) and 1489 toddlers (12-23 months old) enrolled from family health clinics. We show a reduction in PCV13 serotype carriage (with non-PCV13 serotype replacement) and a reduction in the proportion of samples containing resistance genes in toddlers six years post-PCV13 introduction. We observed an increase in pneumococcal nasopharyngeal density. Serotype 15 A, the most prevalent non-vaccine-serotype in 2022, was comprised predominantly of GPSC904;9. Reductions in PCV13 serotype carriage will likely result in pneumococcal disease reduction. It is important for ongoing surveillance to monitor serotype changes to potentially inform new vaccine development.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目标:我们旨在更新2018年至2022年间蒙古各省人群中结直肠癌(CRC)发病率和死亡率的数据。
    方法:本研究采用描述性方法设计。数据来自各省的21家综合医院,9个地区的综合医院,和国家癌症中心在2018-2022年。发病率和死亡率计算为每100,000人口的平均年人数。年龄标准化率(ASR)采用直接法,它是根据世界人口的特定年龄发病率的加权平均值进行评级的。
    结果:在该国,在过去5年(2018-2022年)中,共诊断出1316例新病例,导致782例死亡.在过去5年(2018-2022年)中,CRC的发病率为每100,000人口7.9,死亡率为4.7/10万。Orkhon省(12),Khentii(11),和中央(10)报告的CRC发病率最高,而苏赫巴塔尔省(6.9),Selenge(6.6),Dornod(6),Darkhan-Uul(6)的死亡率最高(每10万人口)。男性和女性之间的CRC发病率差异无统计学意义。此外,估计发病率随着患者年龄的增长而急剧增长。
    结论:我们的研究提供了过去5年蒙古CRC发病率稳步上升的证据。因此,有必要确定风险因素的分布,学习。
    OBJECTIVE: We aimed to update data on the morbidity and mortality rate of colorectal cancer (CRC) among the population of Mongolia by province between 2018 and 2022.
    METHODS: This study was designed using a descriptive method. The data were collected from 21 general hospitals of provinces, 9 general hospitals of districts, and the National Cancer Center in 2018-2022. The incidence and mortality were calculated as mean annual numbers per 100,000 populations. The age-standardized rate (ASR) was utilized by the direct method, and it was rated by weighted average of age-specific incidence rates against the world population.
    RESULTS: In the country, a total of 1316 new cases were diagnosed and 782 deaths were caused by CRC in the last 5 years (2018-2022). The incidence of CRC in the last 5 years (2018-2022) was 7.9 per 100,000 populations, and the mortality rate was 4.7 per 100,000. The provinces of Orkhon (12), Khentii (11), and Central (10) reported the highest incidences of CRC, whereas the provinces of Sukhbaatar (6.9), Selenge (6.6), Dornod (6), and Darkhan-Uul (6) had the highest death rates (per 100,000 populations). The incidence of CRC didn\'t differ statistically significantly between men and women. Additionally, the estimated incidence has grown dramatically with patients\' ages.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our study presents evidence of a steadily increasing CRC incidence in Mongolia over the past five years. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the distribution of risk factors, learn from.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    西太平洋区域对消除麻疹的追求取得了重大进展和挫折。蒙古和柬埔寨是西太平洋第一个被西太平洋消除麻疹和风疹区域核查委员会核实消除麻疹的两个中等收入国家,分别于2014年和2015年3月。然而,此后不久,这两个国家都经历了大规模或长期的与输入相关的麻疹疫情,导致地方性传播的重建。我们描述了这两个国家最初消除疫情的途径,并探讨了这些疫情的特征,导致淘汰状态丧失的因素,以及对更广泛的消除努力的影响。数据来源包括病例流行病学和实验室监测报告,历史免疫覆盖率,基因型数据,并发表了深入的疫情调查报告。在蒙古,一次长期和大规模的爆发揭示了年轻人之间隐藏的免疫差距,部分原因是医院传播,导致显著的发病率和死亡率以及消除状态的丧失。在2018-2019年全球麻疹复发期间,柬埔寨遭受了来自邻国流行国家的多次输入,并因跨境流动和重大医院放大而复杂化。该国最终无法充分区分独立的传播链,导致淘汰状态的丧失。我们的发现强调了将人群免疫评估范围扩大到儿童以外,包括成年人和特定高危人群的重要性。强大的常规免疫计划,由量身定制的SIA补充,对于预防和管理疫情至关重要。此外,强有力的疫情防范计划,快速反应策略,跨境合作和全球努力防止多次复活和大规模进口引起的爆发对于维持消除状态至关重要。蒙古和柬埔寨的经验强调了在面临输入风险的情况下持续消除麻疹的挑战,与流行国家共享边界,医疗保健系统的差距,和人口流动。加强消除麻疹活动的全球协调和同步对于保护已取得的成果和防止未来的挫折至关重要。
    The Western Pacific Region\'s pursuit of measles elimination has seen significant progress and setbacks. Mongolia and Cambodia were the first two middle-income countries in the Western Pacific to be verified as having eliminated measles by the Western Pacific Regional Verification Commission for Measles and Rubella Elimination, in March 2014 and 2015, respectively. However, both countries experienced large-scale or prolonged importation-related measles outbreaks shortly afterwards, leading to the re-establishment of endemic transmission. We describe the path to initial elimination in both countries and explore these outbreaks\' characteristics, factors contributing to the loss of elimination status, and implications for broader elimination efforts. Data sources include case-based epidemiological and laboratory surveillance reports, historical immunization coverage, genotype data, and published reports of in-depth outbreak investigations. In Mongolia, a single prolonged and large-scale outbreak revealed a hidden immunity gap among young adults and was driven in part by nosocomial transmission, leading to significant morbidity and mortality and loss of elimination status. Cambodia suffered multiple importations from neighboring endemic countries during the global measles resurgence in 2018-2019, complicated by cross-border mobility and significant nosocomial amplification, and the country was ultimately unable to sufficiently distinguish independent chains of transmission, leading to loss of elimination status. Our findings highlight the importance of broadening population immunity assessments beyond children to include adults and specific high-risk groups. Robust routine immunization programs, supplemented by tailored SIAs, are crucial for preventing and managing outbreaks. Additionally, strong outbreak preparedness plans, rapid response strategies, and cross-border collaboration and the global effort to prevent multiple resurgences and large-scale importation-induced outbreaks are vital for maintaining elimination status. The experiences of Mongolia and Cambodia underscore the challenges of sustaining measles elimination in the face of importation risks, shared borders with endemic countries, healthcare system gaps, and population movements. Strengthening the global coordination and synchronization of measles elimination activities is imperative to protect the gains achieved and prevent future setbacks.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    囊性包虫病(CE),由细粒棘球蚴幼虫期引起,由于地理偏远,蒙古的报告严重不足,缺乏早期诊断,和不良的临床管理。本研究旨在通过比较手术(报告)和诊断(未报告)病例的数据,并评估乡村医生在疾病管理和监测方面面临的挑战,从而更准确地估计蒙古的CE。我们收集了8个省2006年至2016年住院的手术病例和2016年新诊断的CE病例的数据。使用准泊松回归模型,我们对收集的数据进行外推,以估计整个国家的确诊病例数.此外,来自所有21个省的40名卫生专业人员通过问卷调查对当地的CE临床管理进行了评估。结果显示,手术病例(每年2.2例)仅占诊断病例的八分之一(每年15.9例)。实验室设施,疾病报告,囊肿分类使用率低于2分。这些结果突出了蒙古CE的严重漏报,并敦促人类和动物卫生专家,连同政策制定者,为了投资打击CE,特别是在偏远地区。本研究还强调需要根据WHO-IWGE进行囊肿分类的标准临床管理,以及CE报告和监测机制的无缝整合。这可以为CE的国家和全球负担估计做出重大贡献。
    Cystic echinococcosis (CE), caused by the larval stage of Echinococcus granulosus, is significantly underreported in Mongolia due to geographical remoteness, a lack of early diagnostics, and poor clinical management. This study aimed to provide a more accurate estimate of CE in Mongolia by comparing data from surgical (reported) and diagnosed (unreported) cases and assessing the challenges faced by rural doctors in disease management and surveillance. We collected data on surgical cases hospitalized between 2006 and 2016 and newly diagnosed CE cases in 2016 from eight provinces. Using a quasi-Poisson regression model, we extrapolated the collected data to estimate the number of diagnosed cases for the entire country. Additionally, forty health professionals from all 21 provinces rated local clinical management for CE through a questionnaire. The results reveal that surgical cases (2.2 per year) represent only one-eighth of diagnosed cases (15.9 per year). The laboratory facilities, disease reporting, and cyst classification usage scored below 2. These results highlight the significant underreporting of CE in Mongolia and urge human and animal health experts, along with policymakers, to invest in combating CE, particularly in remote provincial areas. This study also emphasizes the need for standard clinical management involving cyst classification according to the WHO-IWGE and seamless integration of CE reporting and monitoring mechanisms, which can significantly contribute to the national and global burden estimation of CE.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:蒙古在10年前引入了肝移植,成为全球第46个成功执行此程序的国家。然而,在蒙古,肝移植治疗的费用仍然昂贵,中低收入国家。因此,需要计算肝移植的费用,一种非常有价值的治疗方法,构成本研究的基础。
    方法:本研究采用回顾性研究设计和次要资料。主要数据集包括2011年至2021年在蒙古第一中心医院进行的143例肝移植病例。
    结果:在蒙古进行肝移植的平均费用为39,589±10,308美元,其中79.6%为直接成本,而20.4%为间接成本。在直接成本中,71%归因于毒品,医疗设备,和用品,而工资占8.6%。就终末期肝病(MELD)评分模型而言,MELD≤14分的患者的治疗费用为39,205±10,786美元,MELD15-20分的患者$40,296±1,517,MELD21-27分的患者$39,352±8,718,MELD≤28分的患者为39,812±9,954美元,差异无统计学意义(P=0.953)。然而,当根据Child-Turcotte-Pugh(CTP)评分分类计算时,CTP-A患者的治疗费用为$35,970±6,879,CTP-B患者的治疗费用为$41,951±12,195,CTP-C患者的治疗费用为$37,396±6,701,这具有统计学意义(WT=0.015).
    结论:蒙古肝移植治疗的平均费用为39,589美元。尽管医疗设施每年有能力治疗多达50名患者,等待名单超过300人,强调重大未满足的医疗保健需求。
    BACKGROUND: Mongolia introduced liver transplantation 10 years ago, becoming the 46th country globally to successfully perform this procedure. However, the cost of liver transplantation treatment remains expensive in Mongolia, a lower-middle-income country. Thus, the need to calculate the cost of liver transplants, a highly-valued treatment, forms the basis for this study.
    METHODS: This study employed a retrospective research design with secondary data. The primary dataset comprised 143 cases of liver transplantation performed at the First Central Hospital of Mongolia between 2011 and 2021.
    RESULTS: The average cost of a liver transplant in Mongolia is $39,589 ± 10,308, with 79.6% being direct costs and 20.4% indirect costs. Of the direct costs, 71% were attributed to drugs, medical equipment, and supplies, while 8.6% accounted for salaries. In terms of the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores, treatment costs were $39,205 ± 10,786 for patients with MELD ≤ 14 points, $40,296 ± 1,517 for patients with MELD 15-20 points, $39,352 ± 8,718 for patients with MELD 21-27 points, and $39,812 ± 9,954 for patients with MELD ≤ 28 points, with no statistically significant difference (P = 0.953). However, when calculated according to the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score classification, treatment cost for CTP-A patients was $35,970 ± 6,879, for CTP-B patients $41,951 ± 12,195, and for CTP-C patients $37,396 ± 6,701, which was statistically significant (Р=0.015).
    CONCLUSIONS: The average cost of liver transplantation treatment in Mongolia was $39,589. Despite medical facilities\' capacity to treat up to 50 patients annually, the waiting list exceeds 300 individuals, highlighting significant unmet healthcare needs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    肝细胞癌(HCC)是蒙古最常见的癌症。已知乙型肝炎病毒(HBV)和丙型肝炎病毒(HCV)感染在HCC病因中的相对重要性从世界上的一个地方到另一个地方都有很大差异。原则上,95%的HCC患者患有慢性病毒性肝炎,包括53%的乙型肝炎病毒,38.9%的HCV,和5.6%的HBV/HCV合并感染。丁型肝炎病毒(HDV)感染在我国广泛传播,在超过25%的HBsAg携带者中发现了抗HDV。
    我们分析了在成人肝炎科被诊断为急性病毒性肝炎的患者的数据,从1952年到2018年,蒙古国家传染病中心。
    在1981年至2019年期间,蒙古共有318,831例急性病毒性肝炎病例,即每10,000人34.9例。其中,265,931例急性甲型肝炎,或每10,000人口28.6,48,855例急性乙型病毒性肝炎,或每10,000人口中有5.5例,和2,607例急性病毒性丙型肝炎,或每10,000人口中记录0.4例。
    1981-1991年我国病毒性肝炎的患病率最高,但自2012年以来,感染率稳步下降。在蒙古,自1960年以来,在国家一级成功实施了打击病毒性肝炎的多方面计划和活动。
    BadamnachinB,BadamjavT,DondovG,etal.蒙古急性病毒性肝炎流行动态及防治病毒性肝炎的策略.欧亚J肝胃肠病2024;14(1):65-69。
    UNASSIGNED: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common cancer in Mongolia. The relative importance of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections in HCC etiology is known to vary greatly from one part of the world to another. Principally, 95% of HCC patients have chronic viral hepatitis, including 53% hepatitis B virus, 38.9% HCV, and 5.6% have HBV/HCV coinfection. Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection is widely spread in our country, anti-HDV has been found in more than 25% of carriers who have HBsAg.
    UNASSIGNED: We analyzed data of patients who had been diagnosed with acute viral hepatitis in the Department of adult hepatitis, National Center for Communicable Diseases in Mongolia from 1952 to 2018.
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 318,831 cases of acute viral hepatitis were registered in Mongolia between 1981 and 2019, which is 34.9 cases per 10,000 population. Of these, 265,931 cases of acute viral hepatitis A, or 28.6 per 10,000 populations, 48,855 cases of acute viral hepatitis B, or 5.5 cases per 10,000 populations, and 2,607 cases of acute viral hepatitis C, or 0.4 cases per 10,000 populations were recorded.
    UNASSIGNED: The prevalence of viral hepatitis in our country was the highest in 1981-1991, but since 2012, the prevalence of infection has steadily decreased. In Mongolia, since 1960, multifaceted programs and activities to combat viral hepatitis have been successfully implemented at the national level.
    UNASSIGNED: Badamnachin B, Badamjav T, Dondov G, et al. The Dynamics of the Prevalence of Acute Viral Hepatitis and the Strategies against Viral Hepatitis in Mongolia. Euroasian J Hepato-Gastroenterol 2024;14(1):65-69.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目标:Aptian-Albian(121.4-100.5Ma)是一个温室期,全球气温估计比工业化前温度高10-15°C,因此,令人惊讶的是,此时最可靠的CO2估计值<1400ppm。在温暖时期,这种低CO2意味着在Aptian-Albian和今天之间,每CO2增加一倍,地球系统的灵敏度就在6至9°C的范围内。
    方法:我们基于叶片气体交换原理(Franks模型)对来自蒙古中部TevshiinGovi褐煤矿的三个地层相似样品的两个Pseudotorellia物种(〜119.7-100.5Ma)。
    结果:我们从三个相应样品估计的CO2浓度的中值为2132、2405和2770ppm。二氧化碳估计值高但不确定性相对较大的主要原因是这两个物种的气孔密度非常低,小的变化传播到估计的二氧化碳的大变化。的确,我们发现,在总量估计的二氧化碳接近完整数据集之前,至少需要15片叶子。
    结论:我们的三个CO2估计值均超过2000ppm,转换为地球系统灵敏度(〜3-5°C/CO2倍增),更符合当前对长期气候系统的理解。因为我们的样本量大,直接测量的输入对估计CO2的总体不确定性没有太大贡献;相反,推断的输入是造成大部分总体不确定性的原因,因此应仔细检查其价值选择。
    OBJECTIVE: The Aptian-Albian (121.4-100.5 Ma) was a greenhouse period with global temperatures estimated as 10-15°C warmer than pre-industrial conditions, so it is surprising that the most reliable CO2 estimates from this time are <1400 ppm. This low CO2 during a warm period implies a very high Earth-system sensitivity in the range of 6 to 9°C per CO2 doubling between the Aptian-Albian and today.
    METHODS: We applied a well-vetted paleo-CO2 proxy based on leaf gas-exchange principles (Franks model) to two Pseudotorellia species from three stratigraphically similar samples at the Tevshiin Govi lignite mine in central Mongolia (~119.7-100.5 Ma).
    RESULTS: Our median estimated CO2 concentration from the three respective samples was 2132, 2405, and 2770 ppm. The primary reason for the high estimated CO2 but with relatively large uncertainties is the very low stomatal density in both species, where small variations propagate to large changes in estimated CO2. Indeed, we found that at least 15 leaves are required before the aggregate estimated CO2 approaches that of the full data set.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our three CO2 estimates all exceeded 2000 ppm, translating to an Earth-system sensitivity (~3-5°C/CO2 doubling) that is more in keeping with the current understanding of the long-term climate system. Because of our large sample size, the directly measured inputs did not contribute much to the overall uncertainty in estimated CO2; instead, the inferred inputs were responsible for most of the overall uncertainty and thus should be scrutinized for their value choices.
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