背景:非法制造的芬太尼的传播正在推动美国过量死亡人数的急剧增加。芬太尼癫痫发作与国家一级阿片类药物相关的死亡率相关;然而,更细粒度的癫痫发作监测信息有可能更好地为预防用药过量和减少危害的工作提供信息.
方法:使用来自高强度贩毒区(HIDTA)的芬太尼丸和粉剂癫痫发作的数据,我们测试了癫痫患病率和过量死亡率之间的关联,从2013年到2020年。主要暴露——癫痫发作负担——是通过确定药丸患病率高(高于中位数)的县来构建的。粉末,或每100,000人的药丸/粉剂合并癫痫发作负担。泊松模型占县人口统计学,执法和时间趋势。
结果:在时间段内,在美国606个县有13,842例芬太尼癫痫发作.在调整后的模型中,药丸或粉末芬太尼癫痫发作负担很高的县,或两者(联合丸剂/散剂)的总过量死亡率高于非高负担县(丸剂调整后的患病率比[aPR]:1.10[95%置信区间[CI]:1.08,1.12];散剂aPR1.12[CI:1.11,1.13];联合丸剂/散剂aPR:1.27[CI:1.25,1.29]).对于涉及合成阿片类药物的过量死亡(药丸[aPR]:0.99[CI:0.96,1.02];粉末aPR1.29[CI:1.27,1.30];联合药丸/粉末aPR1.55[CI:1.52,1.58]),发现与芬太尼癫痫发作负担的关联模式相似。
结论:关于芬太尼癫痫发作的执法数据预测县级药物过量死亡率。将这些数据与更传统的流行病学监测方法相结合,有可能为社区的过量反应工作提供信息。
BACKGROUND: The spread of illicitly manufactured fentanyl is driving steep increases in US overdose deaths. Fentanyl seizures are correlated with state-level opioid-related mortality; however, more granular seizure surveillance information has the potential to better inform overdose prevention and harm reduction efforts.
METHODS: Using data on fentanyl pill and powder seizures from High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas (HIDTA), we tested associations between seizure prevalence and overdose mortality, from 2013 to 2020. The primary exposure-seizure burden-was constructed by identifying counties having high (above the median) prevalence of pill, powder, or combined pill/powder seizure burden per 100,000 population. Poisson models accounted for county demographic, law enforcement and time trends.
RESULTS: During the timeframe, there were 13,842 fentanyl seizures in 606 US counties. In adjusted models, counties with a high burden of pill or powder fentanyl seizures, or both (combined pills/powder) exhibited higher total overdose mortality than non-high burden counties (pills adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR]: 1.10 [95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.08, 1.12]; powder aPR 1.12 [CI: 1.11, 1.13]; combined pills/powder aPR: 1.27 [CI: 1.25, 1.29]). A similar pattern of associations with fentanyl seizure burden was noted for overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids (pills [aPR]: 0.99 [CI: 0.96, 1.02]; powder aPR 1.29 [CI: 1.27, 1.30]; combined pills/powder aPR 1.55 [CI: 1.52, 1.58]).
CONCLUSIONS: Law enforcement data on fentanyl seizures predicts drug overdose mortality at the county-level. Integrating these data with more traditional epidemiologic surveillance approaches has the potential to inform community overdose response efforts.