美国EPAMOVES3模型用于评估大规模引入电动汽车对标准污染物(CO,碳氢化合物[HC],NOx,和颗粒物[PM])和二氧化碳来自美国轻型车辆车队。这些标准污染物的排放量在2000-2020年大幅减少。这些趋势预计将持续到2040年,这是由于传统车队的周转,旧车辆被电池电动汽车(BEV)和具有现代排放控制系统的新型内燃机汽车(ICEV)取代。如果不引入BEV,CO的绝对排放量,NOx,HC,从2020年到2040年,美国轻型汽车车队的PM2.5和PM2.5预计将下降约61、88、55和20%。引入市场份额在2040年线性增长到100%的BEV提供了额外的好处,which,再加上ICEV车队的营业额,会导致CO的绝对排放量减少,NOx,HC,从2020年到2040年,PM2.5约为77、94、71和37%。二氧化碳排放量的减少遵循类似的模式。轻型车辆的标准污染物和二氧化碳排放量将大幅下降。
The U.S. EPA MOVES3 model was used to assess the impact of the large-scale introduction of electric vehicles on emissions of criteria pollutants (CO, hydrocarbons [HC], NOx, and particulate matter [PM]) and CO2 from the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet. Large reductions in emissions of these criteria pollutants occurred in 2000-2020. These trends are expected to continue through 2040 driven by turnover of the conventional fleet with old vehicles being replaced by battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and by new internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) with modern emission control systems. Without the introduction of BEVs, the absolute emissions of CO, NOx, HC, and PM2.5 from the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet are expected to decrease by approximately 61, 88, 55, and 20% from 2020 to 2040. Introduction of BEVs with market share increasing linearly to 100% in 2040 provides additional benefits, which, combined with ICEV fleet turnover, would lead to decreases of absolute emissions of CO, NOx, HC, and PM2.5 of approximately 77, 94, 71, and 37% from 2020 to 2040. Reductions in CO2 emissions follow a similar pattern. Large decreases in criteria pollutant and CO2 emissions from light duty vehicles lie ahead.