背景:Glires的范围受到人类活动和气候变化的影响。然而,人类活动和环境变化对这种关系的贡献程度尚不清楚。我们研究了喜马拉雅土拨鼠的分布变化和驱动因素的变化,高原鼠兔,和使用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和地理探测器(Geodetector)的青藏高原(QTP)。
结果:MaxEnt模型表明,人类足迹指数(HFI)对三种Glires分布格局的贡献率为46.70%,58.70%,和59.50%,分别。地球探测器结果表明,喜马拉雅旱鼠在QTP上的分布格局受海拔和归一化植被指数(NDVI)的影响。高原pikas和高原zokors的分布模式是由HFI和NDVI驱动的。气候在为QTP上的这三个Glires塑造合适的栖息地方面发挥了重要作用。他们的合适面积预计在未来30-50年内会减少,以及它们的利基宽度和重叠。这三个Glires的未来合适栖息地倾向于向QTP上的高纬度转移。
结论:这些发现强调了环境和人为因素对QTP上三种Glires分布的影响。它们增强了我们对Glires壁龛与环境之间复杂关系的理解。这可以帮助确定必要的干预措施,以开发有效的预警系统和预防策略,以减轻QTP上的Glires感染和鼠疫流行。©2024化学工业学会。
BACKGROUND: The range of Glires is influenced by human activities and climate change. However, the extent to which human activities and environmental changes have contributed to this relationship remains unclear. We examined alterations in the distribution changes and driving factors of the Himalayan marmot, plateau pika, and plateau zokor on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and a geographical detector (Geodetector).
RESULTS: The MaxEnt model showed that the contribution rates of the human footprint index (HFI) to the distribution patterns of the three types of Glires were 46.70%, 58.70%, and 59.50%, respectively. The Geodetector results showed that the distribution pattern of the Himalayan marmot on the QTP was influenced by altitude and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The distribution patterns for plateau pikas and plateau zokors were driven by HFI and NDVI. Climate has played a substantial role in shaping suitable habitats for these three Glires on the QTP. Their suitable area is expected to decrease over the next 30-50 years, along with their niche breadth and overlap. Future suitable habitats for the three Glires tended to shift toward higher latitudes on the QTP.
CONCLUSIONS: These findings underscore the impacts of environmental and human factors on the distribution of the three Glires on the QTP. They have enhanced our understanding of the intricate relationships between Glires niches and environments. This can aid in identifying necessary interventions for developing effective early warning systems and prevention strategies to mitigate Glires infestations and plague epidemics on the QTP. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.