Group decision making

群体决策
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    众包通过将问题分配给大量称为人群的非专家来解决问题。在这些系统中,问题的最终答案是通过总结从社区获得的选票来确定的。通过促进社区成员通过移动电话和因特网的访问,这些系统的普及已经增加。众包提出的问题之一是如何选择人以及如何收集答案。通常,用户根据他们在预测试中的表现进行分离。设计性能计算的预测试具有挑战性;应选择预测试问题来评估与主要问题相关的个人特征。提高众包系统准确性的方法之一是通过考虑个人的认知特征和决策模型来形成人群,并提高他们对问题答案准确性的估计。人们可以在做出决定时估计他们的回答的正确性。这种估计的准确性由称为元认知能力的量决定。元运算指的是将置信水平与答案一起考虑以提高解决方案的准确性的情况。在本文中,通过数学和实验分析,我们将回答以下问题:是否有可能通过理解个人“元认知”并记录和利用用户对其答案的信心来提高众包系统的性能?
    Crowdsourcing deals with solving problems by assigning them to a large number of non-experts called crowd using their spare time. In these systems, the final answer to the question is determined by summing up the votes obtained from the community. The popularity of these systems has increased by facilitating access for community members through mobile phones and the Internet. One of the issues raised in crowdsourcing is how to choose people and how to collect answers. Usually, users are separated based on their performance in a pre-test. Designing the pre-test for performance calculation is challenging; The pre-test questions should be selected to assess characteristics in individuals that are relevant to the main questions. One of the ways to increase the accuracy of crowdsourcing systems is by considering individuals\' cognitive characteristics and decision-making models to form a crowd and improve the estimation of their answer accuracy to questions. People can estimate the correctness of their responses while making a decision. The accuracy of this estimate is determined by a quantity called metacognition ability. Metacoginition is referred to the case where the confidence level is considered along with the answer to increase the accuracy of the solution. In this paper, by both mathematical and experimental analysis, we would answer the following question: Is it possible to improve the performance of a crowdsourcing system by understanding individuals\' metacognition and recording and utilizing users\' confidence in their answers?
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究调查了群体规模的影响(个体,五人组,和20)关于普通小鱼对垂直黑白条纹随时间产生的视觉线索的响应。条纹显示在实验罐一端的监视器上,而另一个是统一的白色,或者两端同时结束。将reponses与对照(无条纹)进行比较。视觉提示在6小时内每15分钟伪随机呈现一次。做出了三个预测:第一,由于更有效的信息流,更大的群体会更快地对视觉线索做出反应(反应率)。第二,假设视觉线索为结构提供了代理,较大的群体由于掠夺性风险降低而获得了更大的群体成员利益,与较大的群体相比,个体和较小组的条纹将有更强的关联(关联强度和最终关联)。因此,与较小群体相比,较大群体表现出的与视觉线索的关联会随着时间的推移而减少,更多的风险厌恶群体。不出所料,较大的群体对视觉线索表现出更快的反应速率,与最大的组相比,单个鱼的关联强度更大。最终协会,然而,与较小的群体和个体相比,较大的群体更常见。与最终预测相反,对于任何组大小,对视觉线索的反应都不会随着时间的推移而减少,暗示先天行为或实验持续时间不足以观察习惯。
    This study investigated the influence of group size (individual, groups of five, and 20) on the response of common minnow to visual cues created by vertical black and white stripes over time. The stripes were displayed on a monitor either at one end of an experimental tank, while the other was uniform white, or both ends simultaneously. Reponses were compared with a control (stripes absent). Visual cues were pseudo-randomly presented every 15-minutes over six-hours. Three predictions were made: first, due to more efficient flow of information, larger groups would respond more rapidly (Rate of response) to the visual cues. Second, assuming visual cues provide a proxy for structure and larger groups experience greater benefits of group membership due to reduced predatory risk, there will be stronger association (Strength of association and Final association) with stripes for individuals and smaller groups compared with larger groups. Consequently, the association with visual cues exhibited by larger groups would diminish over time compared to smaller, more risk averse groups. As expected, larger groups exhibited a faster Rate of response to visual cues, and individual fish a greater Strength of association compared with the largest group size. Final association, however, was more common for larger groups compared to both smaller groups and individuals. Contrary to the final prediction, responses to visual cues did not decrease over time for any group size, suggesting innate behaviour or an experimental duration insufficient to observe habituation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:群体决策中的系统偏见(即,群体偏见)可能导致次优决策,并可能伤害患者。尚不清楚患者护理中受损的群体决策如何影响医疗培训。本研究旨在探讨医疗居民关于受损群体决策以及群体偏见在医疗决策中的作用的经验和观点。
    方法:本研究采用了以社会建构主义认识论为基础的主题分析的定性方法。在单一内科住院医师计划中对医疗住院医师进行了半结构化访谈。最初,居民被问及他们作为一个团体或团队做出次优医疗决策的经历。然后,问题针对几个群体偏见(群体思维,社会游荡,承诺的升级)。将访谈转录并转移到定性数据分析软件。进行了主题分析,以在数据集中生成主要主题。
    结果:对居民的16次访谈揭示了五个主要主题:(1)对群体决策的分层影响;(2)压力下的群体决策;(3)决策中的通话后挑战;(4)团队合作与决策之间的互动;(5)群体决策中的个人和文化影响。还为每个主要主题确定了次主题。大多数居民能够在过去与医疗团队合作的经历中认识到群体思维。居民认为社会游荡或承诺升级与医疗团队决策不太相关。
    结论:我们的发现为教学医院群体决策过程的复杂性提供了独特的见解。团队层次显著影响居民的群体决策经验-大多数群体决策归因于顾问或高级团队成员,而排名较低的团队成员贡献较少,参与群体决策的机会也较少。其他因素,如决策的时间限制,感知到来自其他工作人员的压力,并确定了与呼叫后天数相关的挑战是患者护理中最佳群体决策的重要障碍。未来的研究可能会建立在这些发现的基础上,以增强我们对医疗团队决策的理解,并制定改善群体决策的策略。最终导致更高质量的患者护理和培训。
    BACKGROUND: Systematic biases in group decision making (i.e., group biases) may result in suboptimal decisions and potentially harm patients. It is not well known how impaired group decision making in patient care may affect medical training. This study aimed to explore medical residents\' experiences and perspectives regarding impaired group decision making and the role of group biases in medical decision making.
    METHODS: This study used a qualitative approach with thematic analysis underpinned by a social constructionist epistemology. Semi-structured interviews of medical residents were conducted at a single internal medicine residency program. Residents were initially asked about their experiences with suboptimal medical decision making as a group or team. Then, questions were targeted to several group biases (groupthink, social loafing, escalation of commitment). Interviews were transcribed and transferred to a qualitative data analysis software. Thematic analysis was conducted to generate major themes within the dataset.
    RESULTS: Sixteen interviews with residents revealed five major themes: (1) hierarchical influence on group decision making; (2) group decision making under pressure; (3) post-call challenges in decision making; (4) interactions between teamwork and decision making; and (5) personal and cultural influences in group decision making. Subthemes were also identified for each major theme. Most residents were able to recognize groupthink in their past experiences working with medical teams. Residents perceived social loafing or escalation of commitment as less relevant for medical team decision making.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide unique insights into the complexities of group decision making processes in teaching hospitals. Team hierarchy significantly influenced residents\' experiences with group decision making-most group decisions were attributed to consultants or senior team members, while lower ranking team members contributed less and perceived fewer opportunities to engage in group decisions. Other factors such as time constraints on decision making, perceived pressures from other staff members, and challenges associated with post-call days were identified as important barriers to optimal group decision making in patient care. Future studies may build upon these findings to enhance our understanding of medical team decision making and develop strategies to improve group decisions, ultimately leading to higher quality patient care and training.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:石油行业的工作场所事故会对人们造成灾难性的损害,property,和环境。该领域的早期研究表明,大多数事故报告信息以非结构化文本格式提供。事故数据分析的常规技术耗时且严重依赖专家的学科知识,经验,和判断。需要开发基于机器学习的决策支持系统,以分析由于缺乏适当的方法而经常被忽视的大量非结构化文本数据。
    方法:为了解决文献中的这一差距,我们提出了一种混合方法,该方法使用改进的文本挖掘技术,并结合非偏见群体决策框架,将风险因素的客观权重(基于文本挖掘)和主观权重(基于专家意见)的输出进行优先级排序。基于语境词嵌入模型和术语频率,我们提取了5个重要的危险因素集群,包括32个以上的危险子因素.联系了石油行业的异质专家和员工小组,以获取他们对提取的风险因素的意见,并使用最佳-最差的方法将他们的意见转换为权重。
    结论:我们提出的框架的适用性是在根据印度石油工业发布的事故数据汇编的数据上进行的测试。我们的框架可以扩展到任何行业的事故数据,减少分析时间,提高风险因素分类和优先排序的准确性。
    BACKGROUND: Workplace accidents in the petroleum industry can cause catastrophic damage to people, property, and the environment. Earlier studies in this domain indicate that the majority of the accident report information is available in unstructured text format. Conventional techniques for the analysis of accident data are time-consuming and heavily dependent on experts\' subject knowledge, experience, and judgment. There is a need to develop a machine learning-based decision support system to analyze the vast amounts of unstructured text data that are frequently overlooked due to a lack of appropriate methodology.
    METHODS: To address this gap in the literature, we propose a hybrid methodology that uses improved text-mining techniques combined with an un-bias group decision-making framework to combine the output of objective weights (based on text mining) and subjective weights (based on expert opinion) of risk factors to prioritize them. Based on the contextual word embedding models and term frequencies, we extracted five important clusters of risk factors comprising more than 32 risk sub-factors. A heterogeneous group of experts and employees in the petroleum industry were contacted to obtain their opinions on the extracted risk factors, and the best-worst method was used to convert their opinions to weights.
    CONCLUSIONS: The applicability of our proposed framework was tested on the data compiled from the accident data released by the petroleum industries in India. Our framework can be extended to accident data from any industry, to reduce analysis time and improve the accuracy in classifying and prioritizing risk factors.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    有时我们有个人偏好,但我们同意其他人遵循不同的行动方针。在这项研究中,3岁和5岁的孩子(N=160)表示偏爱以一种方式玩游戏,然后面对表达不同偏好的同龄人。然后,实验者要么让参与者明确地与同龄人达成一致,要么只是耸了耸肩,继续前进。然后让孩子们独自玩游戏而不被观察。只有年龄较大的孩子坚持他们的协议,按照同龄人的意愿玩游戏。这些结果表明,到5岁时,儿童对协议的承诺感足以超越他们的个人偏好。
    Sometimes we have a personal preference but we agree with others to follow a different course of action. In this study, 3- and 5-year-old children (N = 160) expressed a preference for playing a game one way and were then confronted with peers who expressed a different preference. The experimenter then either got the participants to agree with the peers explicitly or just shrugged her shoulders and moved on. The children were then left alone to play the game unobserved. Only the older children stuck to their agreement to play the game as the peers wished. These results suggest that by 5 years of age children\'s sense of commitment to agreements is strong enough to override their personal preferences.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    烧结是制备高炉铁矿粉的常用团聚工艺。烧结矿的质量显著影响高炉炼铁过程。在绝大多数的烧结厂,烧结质量的判断仍然依赖于操作人员对烧结机尾部截面的直观观察,易受外部环境和操作人员经验的影响。在本文中,提出了一种基于深度学习的特征选择和集成学习的烧结状态识别方法。首先,基于ResNeXt,从sinterer尾部烧结矿截面的红外热图像中提取特征。然后,为了消除无关紧要的东西,冗余和嘈杂的功能,提出了一种基于二进制状态转移算法(BSTA)的高效特征选择方法来寻找真正有用的特征。随后,提出了一种基于群决策(GDM)的集成学习(EL)方法来识别烧结状态。考虑到基础学习者的不同表现,设计了新颖的组合策略,以进一步提高识别准确性。在某钢厂进行的工业实验验证了该方法的有效性和优越性。
    Sintering is a commonly used agglomeration process to prepare iron ore fines for blast furnace. The quality of sinter significantly impacts the blast furnace ironmaking process. In the vast majority of sintering plants, the judgment of sintering quality still relies on the intuitive observation of the cross section at sintering machine tail by operators, which is susceptible to the external environment and the experience of operators. In this paper, we propose a new sintering state recognition method using deep learning based feature selection and ensemble learning. First, features from the infrared thermal images of sinter cross section at the tail of the sinterer are extracted based on ResNeXt. Then, to eliminate the irrelevant, redundant and noisy features, an efficient feature selection method based on binary state transition algorithm (BSTA) is proposed to find the truly useful features. Subsequently, an ensemble learning (EL) method based on group decision making (GDM) is proposed to recognize the sintering states. Novel combination strategies considering the varying performance of the base learners are designed to further improve recognition accuracy. Industrial experiments conducted at a steel plant verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    关于调情作为工作场所有说服力的策略的奖学金表明,调情会对任务组产生负面影响。这项研究的目的是通过将这种形式的调情作为魅力进行操作,并研究魅力在决策小组中对个别小组成员的影响,来扩展对器乐调情的研究。在目前的研究中,参与者(60名妇女,60名男子)以四人做出决定,混合性群体。研究结果表明,魅力的使用与小组成员任务能力的感知呈负相关。还研究了对魅力的感知差异。
    The scholarship on flirting as a persuasive tactic in the workplace indicates that flirting can have negative consequences for task groups. The goal of this study was to extend the investigation of instrumental flirting by operationalizing this form of flirting as charm and by examining the consequences of charm in decision-making groups for the individual group members. In the current study, participants (60 women, 60 men) made decisions in four-person, mixed sex groups. The results of the study demonstrate that the use of charm was negatively associated with perceptions of group member task competence. Differences in perceptions of charm were also examined.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    领导者的选择在人类社会群体的形成和维持中起着关键作用。领导力要么是通过组织内的正式流程分配的,或通过与其他小组成员的互动非正式地出现-特别是在新的背景下。新冠肺炎加快了虚拟会议和更灵活的团队结构的采用。但是,我们对分配的领导如何影响虚拟环境中随后的领导出现的理解是有限的。在这里,我们研究了现有组织中分配的领导与成员参与虚拟互动时随后出现的领导归因之间的关系。要做到这一点,我们创建并实施了一个新的虚拟群体决策任务,旨在支持量化一组更全面的沟通风格元素,例如语音动态和面部表情,以及任务行为。一个现实世界组织的16名成员每次都与新的团队成员进行四轮重复的群体决策任务。我们发现参与者对新兴领导做出了新颖的归因,而不是仅仅依靠现有的分配领导。虽然分配的领导确实影响了领导的归属,沟通风格,包括说话的数量,也包括面部表情的可变性,发挥了更大的作用。这些新颖的新兴领导者的行为也更符合对领导行为的期望:他们早些时候发言,更多的时候,比指派的领导人更专注于正确的决定。这些发现表明,即使在现有的社交网络中,虚拟环境促进了灵活的小组结构,这种结构更多地取决于沟通方式和任务绩效,而不是分配的领导。
    Leader selection plays a key role in how human social groups are formed and maintained. Leadership is either assigned through formal processes within an organization, or emerges informally through interactions with other group members-particularly in novel contexts. COVID-19 has accelerated the adoption of virtual meetings and more flexible team structures. However our understanding of how assigned leadership influences subsequent leadership emergence in virtual settings is limited. Here we examine the relationship between assigned leadership within an existing organization and subsequent emergent leadership attributions as members engage in virtual interactions. To do so, we created and implemented a novel virtual group decision-making task designed to support quantification of a more comprehensive set of communication style elements, such as speech dynamics and facial expressions, as well as task behaviors. Sixteen members of a real world organization engaged four repeated rounds of a group decision making task with new team members each time. We found participants made novel attributions of emergent leadership rather than relying solely on existing assigned leadership. While assigned leadership did influence leadership attributions, communication style, including amount of speech but also variability in facial expressions, played a larger role. The behavior of these novel emergent leaders was also more consistent with expectations of leadership behavior: they spoke earlier, more often, and focused more on the correct decision than did assigned leaders. These findings suggest that, even within existing social networks, virtual contexts promote flexible group structures that depend more on communication style and task performance than assigned leadership.
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  • 文章类型: English Abstract
    长江流域农村污水处理是实现长江大保护的重要环节,但现有的治疗技术选择困难,技术多样,缺乏评价。因此,本研究以长江中游地区农村污水处理工程为研究对象,分析了各种处理技术在不同收集模式和排放标准下的应用,构建了农村污水处理技术评价指标体系,然后基于群决策和层次分析法对各应用场景的处理技术进行了分类评价。结果表明:长江中游农村污水的收集方式主要为单村或小型联合村,处理规模主要集中在200m3·d-1以下,处理技术应用最多的是厌氧+生态工艺(28.05%),集成设备的应用也更加广泛(22.47%)。准则层的技术性能在评价指标体系中权重最大(0.5039),其次是经济效益(0.2474),运营和管理(0.1559),和环境影响(0.0928),分别是TP去除率的四个指标,吨水运行成本,氨氮去除率,维护难度较高。评价和优化结果表明,强化生态和厌氧+生态处理技术适合在长江中游农村地区推广应用。本研究结果可为长江中游地区农村污水处理技术选择提供科学依据和参考。
    Rural sewage treatment in the Yangtze River basin is an important link to achieve the great protection of the Yangtze River, but the existing treatment technologies are difficult to choose and have various techniques and a lack of evaluation. Therefore, this study researched and collected the case information of rural sewage treatment projects in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, analyzed the application of each treatment technology under different collection modes and discharge standards, constructed the evaluation index system of rural sewage treatment technologies, and then conducted a classification evaluation of processing technologies for each application scenario based on group decision making and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The results showed that:the collection modes of rural sewage in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River were mainly single village or small-scale joint village, the treatment scale was mainly concentrated below 200 m3·d-1, the treatment technology was most applied by the anaerobic+ecological process (28.05%), and the application of integrated equipment was also more widely used (22.47%). The technical performance in the criterion layer had the largest weight (0.5039) in the evaluation index system, followed by those of economic benefits (0.2474), operation and management (0.1559), and environmental impact (0.0928), respectively; the four indicators of TP removal rate, ton water operation cost, ammonia nitrogen removal rate, and maintenance difficulty had higher weights. The evaluation and optimization results showed that the enhanced ecological and anaerobic+ecological treatment technologies were suitable for promotion and application in the rural areas of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. The results of this study can provide scientific basis and reference for the selection of rural sewage treatment technologies in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    不确定性下的群体决策通常需要群体在探索环境与开发看似最佳选择之间取得平衡。为了在这种集体归纳法中取得成功,团体需要合并所有团体成员的知识,并结合目标导向和社会动机(即,团体凝聚力)。本文提出了三项研究,以调查更具凝聚力的小组在集体诱导任务中的表现是否较差,因为他们花了更少的时间探索可能的选择。研究1使用ε-贪婪算法模拟群体决策,以确定对群体凝聚力的合适操作,并研究不同的探索长度如何影响群体决策的结果。研究2(N=108,18组和6参与者)在简单的卡片选择任务中使用了小组凝聚力的实验操作,以研究当只有有限的社会信息可用时,小组凝聚力如何影响小组决策。研究3(N=96,16组和6名参与者)通过实验操纵群体凝聚力,并使用HoneyComb范式,基于运动的小组实验平台,调查在决策过程中会出现哪些群体过程,以及这些过程将如何影响群体凝聚力之间的关系,勘探长度,和群体决策。研究1发现,乘法内聚奖励对群体决策有不利影响,虽然加性群体奖励可以改善凝聚力奖励的负面影响,特别是当与任务奖励分开报告时。此外,勘探长度被发现深刻影响决策质量。研究2和3表明,小组可以成功地确定最佳奖励选项,不管群体凝聚力的操纵。这种效应被解释为天花板效应,因为决策任务可能太容易解决。研究3发现,运动场上的空间群体凝聚力与大多数群体中自发出现的自我报告的主体性和领导者/追随者相关,并与游戏中自我报告的领导者/追随者的感知相关。我们讨论了仿真研究的优势,对ε-贪婪算法的可能适应,以及测量行为群体凝聚力和领导力的方法论方面,为研究不确定性下的群体决策提供实证研究。
    Group decision making under uncertainty often requires groups to balance exploration of their environment with exploitation of the seemingly best option. In order to succeed at this collective induction, groups need to merge the knowledge of all group members and combine goal-oriented and social motivations (i.e., group cohesion). This paper presents three studies that investigate whether more cohesive groups perform worse at collective induction tasks as they spend less time exploring possible options. Study 1 simulates group decision making with the ε-greedy algorithm in order to identify suitable manipulations of group cohesion and investigate how differing exploration lengths can affect outcomes of group decisions. Study 2 (N = 108, 18 groups á 6 participants) used an experimental manipulation of group cohesion in a simple card choice task to investigate how group cohesion might affect group decision making when only limited social information is available. Study 3 (N = 96, 16 groups á 6 participants) experimentally manipulated group cohesion and used the HoneyComb paradigm, a movement-based group experiment platform, to investigate which group processes would emerge during decision making and how these processes would affect the relationships between group cohesion, exploration length, and group decision making. Study 1 found that multiplicative cohesion rewards have detrimental effects on group decision making, while additive group rewards could ameliorate negative effects of the cohesion reward, especially when reported separately from task rewards. Additionally, exploration length was found to profoundly affect decision quality. Studies 2 and 3 showed that groups could identify the best reward option successfully, regardless of group cohesion manipulation. This effect is interpreted as a ceiling effect as the decision task was likely too easy to solve. Study 3 identified that spatial group cohesion on the playing field correlated with self-reported entitativity and leader-/followership emerged spontaneously in most groups and correlated with self-reported perceptions of leader-/followership in the game. We discuss advantages of simulation studies, possible adaptations to the ε-greedy algorithm, and methodological aspects of measuring behavioral group cohesion and leadership to inform empirical studies investigating group decision making under uncertainty.
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