Group decision making

群体决策
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    众包通过将问题分配给大量称为人群的非专家来解决问题。在这些系统中,问题的最终答案是通过总结从社区获得的选票来确定的。通过促进社区成员通过移动电话和因特网的访问,这些系统的普及已经增加。众包提出的问题之一是如何选择人以及如何收集答案。通常,用户根据他们在预测试中的表现进行分离。设计性能计算的预测试具有挑战性;应选择预测试问题来评估与主要问题相关的个人特征。提高众包系统准确性的方法之一是通过考虑个人的认知特征和决策模型来形成人群,并提高他们对问题答案准确性的估计。人们可以在做出决定时估计他们的回答的正确性。这种估计的准确性由称为元认知能力的量决定。元运算指的是将置信水平与答案一起考虑以提高解决方案的准确性的情况。在本文中,通过数学和实验分析,我们将回答以下问题:是否有可能通过理解个人“元认知”并记录和利用用户对其答案的信心来提高众包系统的性能?
    Crowdsourcing deals with solving problems by assigning them to a large number of non-experts called crowd using their spare time. In these systems, the final answer to the question is determined by summing up the votes obtained from the community. The popularity of these systems has increased by facilitating access for community members through mobile phones and the Internet. One of the issues raised in crowdsourcing is how to choose people and how to collect answers. Usually, users are separated based on their performance in a pre-test. Designing the pre-test for performance calculation is challenging; The pre-test questions should be selected to assess characteristics in individuals that are relevant to the main questions. One of the ways to increase the accuracy of crowdsourcing systems is by considering individuals\' cognitive characteristics and decision-making models to form a crowd and improve the estimation of their answer accuracy to questions. People can estimate the correctness of their responses while making a decision. The accuracy of this estimate is determined by a quantity called metacognition ability. Metacoginition is referred to the case where the confidence level is considered along with the answer to increase the accuracy of the solution. In this paper, by both mathematical and experimental analysis, we would answer the following question: Is it possible to improve the performance of a crowdsourcing system by understanding individuals\' metacognition and recording and utilizing users\' confidence in their answers?
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:群体决策中的系统偏见(即,群体偏见)可能导致次优决策,并可能伤害患者。尚不清楚患者护理中受损的群体决策如何影响医疗培训。本研究旨在探讨医疗居民关于受损群体决策以及群体偏见在医疗决策中的作用的经验和观点。
    方法:本研究采用了以社会建构主义认识论为基础的主题分析的定性方法。在单一内科住院医师计划中对医疗住院医师进行了半结构化访谈。最初,居民被问及他们作为一个团体或团队做出次优医疗决策的经历。然后,问题针对几个群体偏见(群体思维,社会游荡,承诺的升级)。将访谈转录并转移到定性数据分析软件。进行了主题分析,以在数据集中生成主要主题。
    结果:对居民的16次访谈揭示了五个主要主题:(1)对群体决策的分层影响;(2)压力下的群体决策;(3)决策中的通话后挑战;(4)团队合作与决策之间的互动;(5)群体决策中的个人和文化影响。还为每个主要主题确定了次主题。大多数居民能够在过去与医疗团队合作的经历中认识到群体思维。居民认为社会游荡或承诺升级与医疗团队决策不太相关。
    结论:我们的发现为教学医院群体决策过程的复杂性提供了独特的见解。团队层次显著影响居民的群体决策经验-大多数群体决策归因于顾问或高级团队成员,而排名较低的团队成员贡献较少,参与群体决策的机会也较少。其他因素,如决策的时间限制,感知到来自其他工作人员的压力,并确定了与呼叫后天数相关的挑战是患者护理中最佳群体决策的重要障碍。未来的研究可能会建立在这些发现的基础上,以增强我们对医疗团队决策的理解,并制定改善群体决策的策略。最终导致更高质量的患者护理和培训。
    BACKGROUND: Systematic biases in group decision making (i.e., group biases) may result in suboptimal decisions and potentially harm patients. It is not well known how impaired group decision making in patient care may affect medical training. This study aimed to explore medical residents\' experiences and perspectives regarding impaired group decision making and the role of group biases in medical decision making.
    METHODS: This study used a qualitative approach with thematic analysis underpinned by a social constructionist epistemology. Semi-structured interviews of medical residents were conducted at a single internal medicine residency program. Residents were initially asked about their experiences with suboptimal medical decision making as a group or team. Then, questions were targeted to several group biases (groupthink, social loafing, escalation of commitment). Interviews were transcribed and transferred to a qualitative data analysis software. Thematic analysis was conducted to generate major themes within the dataset.
    RESULTS: Sixteen interviews with residents revealed five major themes: (1) hierarchical influence on group decision making; (2) group decision making under pressure; (3) post-call challenges in decision making; (4) interactions between teamwork and decision making; and (5) personal and cultural influences in group decision making. Subthemes were also identified for each major theme. Most residents were able to recognize groupthink in their past experiences working with medical teams. Residents perceived social loafing or escalation of commitment as less relevant for medical team decision making.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide unique insights into the complexities of group decision making processes in teaching hospitals. Team hierarchy significantly influenced residents\' experiences with group decision making-most group decisions were attributed to consultants or senior team members, while lower ranking team members contributed less and perceived fewer opportunities to engage in group decisions. Other factors such as time constraints on decision making, perceived pressures from other staff members, and challenges associated with post-call days were identified as important barriers to optimal group decision making in patient care. Future studies may build upon these findings to enhance our understanding of medical team decision making and develop strategies to improve group decisions, ultimately leading to higher quality patient care and training.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    烧结是制备高炉铁矿粉的常用团聚工艺。烧结矿的质量显著影响高炉炼铁过程。在绝大多数的烧结厂,烧结质量的判断仍然依赖于操作人员对烧结机尾部截面的直观观察,易受外部环境和操作人员经验的影响。在本文中,提出了一种基于深度学习的特征选择和集成学习的烧结状态识别方法。首先,基于ResNeXt,从sinterer尾部烧结矿截面的红外热图像中提取特征。然后,为了消除无关紧要的东西,冗余和嘈杂的功能,提出了一种基于二进制状态转移算法(BSTA)的高效特征选择方法来寻找真正有用的特征。随后,提出了一种基于群决策(GDM)的集成学习(EL)方法来识别烧结状态。考虑到基础学习者的不同表现,设计了新颖的组合策略,以进一步提高识别准确性。在某钢厂进行的工业实验验证了该方法的有效性和优越性。
    Sintering is a commonly used agglomeration process to prepare iron ore fines for blast furnace. The quality of sinter significantly impacts the blast furnace ironmaking process. In the vast majority of sintering plants, the judgment of sintering quality still relies on the intuitive observation of the cross section at sintering machine tail by operators, which is susceptible to the external environment and the experience of operators. In this paper, we propose a new sintering state recognition method using deep learning based feature selection and ensemble learning. First, features from the infrared thermal images of sinter cross section at the tail of the sinterer are extracted based on ResNeXt. Then, to eliminate the irrelevant, redundant and noisy features, an efficient feature selection method based on binary state transition algorithm (BSTA) is proposed to find the truly useful features. Subsequently, an ensemble learning (EL) method based on group decision making (GDM) is proposed to recognize the sintering states. Novel combination strategies considering the varying performance of the base learners are designed to further improve recognition accuracy. Industrial experiments conducted at a steel plant verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    关于调情作为工作场所有说服力的策略的奖学金表明,调情会对任务组产生负面影响。这项研究的目的是通过将这种形式的调情作为魅力进行操作,并研究魅力在决策小组中对个别小组成员的影响,来扩展对器乐调情的研究。在目前的研究中,参与者(60名妇女,60名男子)以四人做出决定,混合性群体。研究结果表明,魅力的使用与小组成员任务能力的感知呈负相关。还研究了对魅力的感知差异。
    The scholarship on flirting as a persuasive tactic in the workplace indicates that flirting can have negative consequences for task groups. The goal of this study was to extend the investigation of instrumental flirting by operationalizing this form of flirting as charm and by examining the consequences of charm in decision-making groups for the individual group members. In the current study, participants (60 women, 60 men) made decisions in four-person, mixed sex groups. The results of the study demonstrate that the use of charm was negatively associated with perceptions of group member task competence. Differences in perceptions of charm were also examined.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    领导者的选择在人类社会群体的形成和维持中起着关键作用。领导力要么是通过组织内的正式流程分配的,或通过与其他小组成员的互动非正式地出现-特别是在新的背景下。新冠肺炎加快了虚拟会议和更灵活的团队结构的采用。但是,我们对分配的领导如何影响虚拟环境中随后的领导出现的理解是有限的。在这里,我们研究了现有组织中分配的领导与成员参与虚拟互动时随后出现的领导归因之间的关系。要做到这一点,我们创建并实施了一个新的虚拟群体决策任务,旨在支持量化一组更全面的沟通风格元素,例如语音动态和面部表情,以及任务行为。一个现实世界组织的16名成员每次都与新的团队成员进行四轮重复的群体决策任务。我们发现参与者对新兴领导做出了新颖的归因,而不是仅仅依靠现有的分配领导。虽然分配的领导确实影响了领导的归属,沟通风格,包括说话的数量,也包括面部表情的可变性,发挥了更大的作用。这些新颖的新兴领导者的行为也更符合对领导行为的期望:他们早些时候发言,更多的时候,比指派的领导人更专注于正确的决定。这些发现表明,即使在现有的社交网络中,虚拟环境促进了灵活的小组结构,这种结构更多地取决于沟通方式和任务绩效,而不是分配的领导。
    Leader selection plays a key role in how human social groups are formed and maintained. Leadership is either assigned through formal processes within an organization, or emerges informally through interactions with other group members-particularly in novel contexts. COVID-19 has accelerated the adoption of virtual meetings and more flexible team structures. However our understanding of how assigned leadership influences subsequent leadership emergence in virtual settings is limited. Here we examine the relationship between assigned leadership within an existing organization and subsequent emergent leadership attributions as members engage in virtual interactions. To do so, we created and implemented a novel virtual group decision-making task designed to support quantification of a more comprehensive set of communication style elements, such as speech dynamics and facial expressions, as well as task behaviors. Sixteen members of a real world organization engaged four repeated rounds of a group decision making task with new team members each time. We found participants made novel attributions of emergent leadership rather than relying solely on existing assigned leadership. While assigned leadership did influence leadership attributions, communication style, including amount of speech but also variability in facial expressions, played a larger role. The behavior of these novel emergent leaders was also more consistent with expectations of leadership behavior: they spoke earlier, more often, and focused more on the correct decision than did assigned leaders. These findings suggest that, even within existing social networks, virtual contexts promote flexible group structures that depend more on communication style and task performance than assigned leadership.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    不确定性下的群体决策通常需要群体在探索环境与开发看似最佳选择之间取得平衡。为了在这种集体归纳法中取得成功,团体需要合并所有团体成员的知识,并结合目标导向和社会动机(即,团体凝聚力)。本文提出了三项研究,以调查更具凝聚力的小组在集体诱导任务中的表现是否较差,因为他们花了更少的时间探索可能的选择。研究1使用ε-贪婪算法模拟群体决策,以确定对群体凝聚力的合适操作,并研究不同的探索长度如何影响群体决策的结果。研究2(N=108,18组和6参与者)在简单的卡片选择任务中使用了小组凝聚力的实验操作,以研究当只有有限的社会信息可用时,小组凝聚力如何影响小组决策。研究3(N=96,16组和6名参与者)通过实验操纵群体凝聚力,并使用HoneyComb范式,基于运动的小组实验平台,调查在决策过程中会出现哪些群体过程,以及这些过程将如何影响群体凝聚力之间的关系,勘探长度,和群体决策。研究1发现,乘法内聚奖励对群体决策有不利影响,虽然加性群体奖励可以改善凝聚力奖励的负面影响,特别是当与任务奖励分开报告时。此外,勘探长度被发现深刻影响决策质量。研究2和3表明,小组可以成功地确定最佳奖励选项,不管群体凝聚力的操纵。这种效应被解释为天花板效应,因为决策任务可能太容易解决。研究3发现,运动场上的空间群体凝聚力与大多数群体中自发出现的自我报告的主体性和领导者/追随者相关,并与游戏中自我报告的领导者/追随者的感知相关。我们讨论了仿真研究的优势,对ε-贪婪算法的可能适应,以及测量行为群体凝聚力和领导力的方法论方面,为研究不确定性下的群体决策提供实证研究。
    Group decision making under uncertainty often requires groups to balance exploration of their environment with exploitation of the seemingly best option. In order to succeed at this collective induction, groups need to merge the knowledge of all group members and combine goal-oriented and social motivations (i.e., group cohesion). This paper presents three studies that investigate whether more cohesive groups perform worse at collective induction tasks as they spend less time exploring possible options. Study 1 simulates group decision making with the ε-greedy algorithm in order to identify suitable manipulations of group cohesion and investigate how differing exploration lengths can affect outcomes of group decisions. Study 2 (N = 108, 18 groups á 6 participants) used an experimental manipulation of group cohesion in a simple card choice task to investigate how group cohesion might affect group decision making when only limited social information is available. Study 3 (N = 96, 16 groups á 6 participants) experimentally manipulated group cohesion and used the HoneyComb paradigm, a movement-based group experiment platform, to investigate which group processes would emerge during decision making and how these processes would affect the relationships between group cohesion, exploration length, and group decision making. Study 1 found that multiplicative cohesion rewards have detrimental effects on group decision making, while additive group rewards could ameliorate negative effects of the cohesion reward, especially when reported separately from task rewards. Additionally, exploration length was found to profoundly affect decision quality. Studies 2 and 3 showed that groups could identify the best reward option successfully, regardless of group cohesion manipulation. This effect is interpreted as a ceiling effect as the decision task was likely too easy to solve. Study 3 identified that spatial group cohesion on the playing field correlated with self-reported entitativity and leader-/followership emerged spontaneously in most groups and correlated with self-reported perceptions of leader-/followership in the game. We discuss advantages of simulation studies, possible adaptations to the ε-greedy algorithm, and methodological aspects of measuring behavioral group cohesion and leadership to inform empirical studies investigating group decision making under uncertainty.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    为了在决策过程中同时处理基数和序数信息,QUALIFLEX(QUALITativeFLEXible多标准方法)是一种非常著名的决策方法。在这项工作中,我们将经典的QUALIFLEX方法扩展到中性粒细胞化环境,并开发了一种使用新定义的基于距离的比较方法的中性粒细胞化QUALIFLEX(N-QUALIFLEX)方法.在解决多准则决策问题时非常有效,在多准则决策问题中,备选方案的标准和标准的权重都是单值中性数字(SVNN),它们的聚集值是单值中性模糊犹豫数(SVNHFN)。根据真实隶属度引入SVNHN的中性犹豫指数(NHI),不确定性-成员资格和虚假-成员资格,用于测量SVNHN的犹豫程度。考虑到SVNHFN的NHIS,我们提出了一种基于距离的比较方法来确定SVNHFN的大小。然后,我们应用比较方法来定义一致性/不一致性指数,加权一致/不一致指数和综合一致/不一致指数是开发的N-QUALIFLEX的步骤。通过考虑关于一致性/不一致性水平的备选方案的所有可能排列,我们在最终决策中确定备选方案的顺序。最后,提供了针对COVID-19大流行的防病毒面罩选择的实际示例,以说明所提出方法的有效性和适用性,并进行了比较研究,以显示所提出的方法相对于其他现有方法的优势。
    In order to handle simultaneously the cardinal and ordinal information in decision-making process, QUALIFLEX (QUALItative FLEXible multiple criteria method) is a very well-known decision-making approach. In this work, we extend the classical QUALIFLEX method to neutrosophic environment and develop a neutrosophic QUALIFLEX (N-QUALIFLEX) method that uses the newly defined distance-based comparison approach. It is highly effective in solving multi-criteria decision problems in which both ratings of alternatives on criteria and weights of criteria are single-valued neutrosophic numbers (SVNNs), and their aggregated values are single-valued neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy numbers (SVNHFNs). A neutrosophic hesitancy index (NHI) of a SVNHN is introduced based on degrees of the truth-membership, indeterminacy-membership and falsity-membership, which is used to measure the degree of hesitancy of SVNHN. Considering the NHIS of SVNHFNs, we propose a distance-based comparison approach to determine the magnitude of the SVNHFNs. Then, we apply the comparison approach to define the concordance/discordance index, the weighted concordance/discordance index and the comprehensive concordance/discordance index that are steps of the developed N-QUALIFLEX. By taking all possible permutations of alternatives with respect to the level of concordance/discordance into account, we determine the order of alternatives in final decision. Finally, a practical example on antivirus mask selection over the COVID-19 pandemic is provided to present the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method, and a comparative study is conducted to show the advantages of the proposed method over other existing methods.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在群体决策(GDM)中,为了促进不同领域的专家之间达成可接受的共识,时间和资源用于说服专家修改他们的意见。因此,共识成本对GDM流程很重要。尽管如此,普通线性成本函数中的单位成本总是固定的,然而,如果专家不得不做出更多妥协,他们通常会表达更多的抵制。在这项研究中,我们使用二次成本函数,其边际成本随着意见的变化而增加。聚合运算符也被认为扩展了共识方法的应用。此外,本文进一步分析了加权平均(WA)算子和有序加权平均(OWA)算子下的最小成本共识模型,分别。基于严格的凸二次规划开发了相应的方法,并提供了一些理想的属性。最后,提供了一些例子和比较分析来说明所提出模型的有效性。
    In group decision making (GDM), to facilitate an acceptable consensus among the experts from different fields, time and resources are paid for persuading experts to modify their opinions. Thus, consensus costs are important for the GDM process. Notwithstanding, the unit costs in the common linear cost functions are always fixed, yet experts will generally express more resistance if they have to make more compromises. In this study, we use the quadratic cost functions, the marginal costs of which increase with the opinion changes. Aggregation operators are also considered to expand the applications of the consensus methods. Moreover, this paper further analyzes the minimum cost consensus models under the weighted average (WA) operator and the ordered weighted average (OWA) operators, respectively. Corresponding approaches are developed based on strictly convex quadratic programming and some desirable properties are also provided. Finally, some examples and comparative analyses are furnished to illustrate the validity of the proposed models.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    新冠肺炎已经对世界造成了近两年的严重破坏。随着病毒继续变异,防疫已成为一场长期而经验丰富的战争。面对病毒株的突然传播,如何快速有效地制定防控计划,对于确保城市安全和社会稳定至关重要。本文正是基于这样的特点,即,它的持久性和突变菌株的高传播性,以及作为现有预防和控制措施一部分的流行病预防和控制计划数据库。然后,防疫专家从计划数据库中选择有效的替代品,并通过对当地疫情的初步分析对他们的偏好进行排序。整合计划的过程旨在最大程度地减少差异,以最大程度地满足当地流行病的需求。一旦获得方案的共识排序,可以确定最终的预防和控制方案。本文提出的方法可以优化防疫专家组的意见,形成共识决策,同时还通过有效地执行工作来节省时间,对局部疫情防控效果具有一定的现实意义。
    COVID-19 has been wreaking havoc on the world for close to two years. As the virus continues to mutate, epidemic prevention and control has become a long and experienced war. In the face of the sudden spread of virus strains, how to quickly and effectively formulate prevention and control plans are essential to ensuring the safety and social stability of cities. This paper is based on the characteristics, namely, its persistence and the high transmissibility of mutated strains, as well as the database of epidemic prevention and control plans formed as part of the existing prevention and control measures. Then, epidemic prevention experts select effective alternatives from the program database and rank their preferences through the preliminary analysis of the local epidemic situation. The process of the integration scheme aims to minimize the differences in an effort to maximize the needs of the local epidemic. Once the consensus ranking of the scheme is obtained, the final prevention and control scheme can be determined. The proposed method of this paper can optimize the opinions of the epidemic prevention expert group and form a consensus decision, whilst also saving time by carrying out the work effectively, which is of certain practical significance to the prevention and control effect of local outbreaks.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    医疗工业4.0是指医疗行业中的智能操作流程。随着信息技术的发展,大规模群体决策(GDM),这允许来自不同地方或部门的更多决策者(DM)参与决策,在医疗保健行业4.0中得到了快速发展和应用,以帮助有效和明智地做出决策。充分利用GDM方法促进医疗行业的发展,有必要回顾现有的相关成就。因此,本文进行了概述,以全面了解GDM在医疗保健行业4.0中的应用,并确定未来的发展方向。为了从已发表的论文中了解发展趋势,进行了文献计量分析。根据一般GDM过程的范例,审查了GDM方法在医疗保健行业4.0中的实施情况。其中包括信息表示,降维,达成共识,和结果启发。我们还提供了有关医学GDM的当前研究挑战和未来方向。希望我们的研究对医疗保健行业4.0中GDM领域的研究人员有所帮助。
    Healthcare Industry 4.0 refers to intelligent operation processes in the medical industry. With the development of information technology, large-scale group decision making (GDM), which allows a larger number of decision makers (DMs) from different places or sectors to participate in decision making, has been rapidly developed and applied in Healthcare Industry 4.0 to help to make decisions efficiently and smartly. To make full use of GDM methods to promote the developments of the medical industry, it is necessary to review the existing relevant achievements. Therefore, this paper conducts an overview to generate a comprehensive understanding of GDM in Healthcare Industry 4.0 and to identify future development directions. Bibliometric analyses are conducted in order to learn the development trends from published papers. The implementations of GDM methods in Healthcare Industry 4.0 are reviewed in accordance with the paradigm of the general GDM process, which includes information representation, dimension reduction, consensus reaching, and result elicitation. We also provide current research challenges and future directions regarding medical GDM. It is hoped that our study will be helpful for researchers in the field of GDM in Healthcare Industry 4.0.
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