Game Theory

博弈论
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在理性的决策过程中,机器人个体间的信息交互是影响系统稳定性的重要因素。我们建立了基于互信息的博弈论模型,以解决由群体机器人之间的差分信息交互引起的分工决策和稳定性问题。首先,利用互信息模型来测量机器人之间的信息交互,并分析其对机器人个体行为的影响。其次,采用古诺模型和斯塔克尔伯格模型,我们对群体机器人受互信息差异影响的不同决策行为进行建模。在博弈过程中,系统在视差互信息值下表现出的复杂的决策动态,随着纳什平衡点的稳定性,被分析。最后,在视差互信息值下模拟博弈模型的动态复杂度:(1)当博弈模型的v1在一定范围内变化时,纳什平衡点失去稳定性,进入混沌状态。(2)随着I(X;Y)的增加,机器人的决策模式逐渐从古诺游戏过渡到斯塔克尔伯格游戏。同时,群体机器人系统对决策参数变化的敏感性降低,降低系统进入混沌状态的可能性。
    In rational decision-making processes, the information interaction among individual robots is a critical factor influencing system stability. We establish a game-theoretic model based on mutual information to address division of labor decision-making and stability issues arising from differential information interaction among swarm robots. Firstly, a mutual information model is employed to measure the information interaction among robots and analyze its influence on the behavior of individual robots. Secondly, employing the Cournot model and the Stackelberg model, we model the diverse decision-making behaviors of swarm robots influenced by discrepancies in mutual information. The intricate decision dynamics exhibited by the system under the disparity mutual information values during the game process, along with the stability of Nash equilibrium points, are analyzed. Finally, dynamic complexity simulations of the game models are simulated under the disparity mutual information values: (1) When ν1 of the game model varies within a certain range, the Nash equilibrium point loses stability and enters a chaotic state. (2) As I(X;Y) increases, the decision-making pattern of robots transitions gradually from the Cournot game to the Stackelberg game. Concurrently, the sensitivity of swarm robotics systems to changes in decision parameter decreases, reducing the likelihood of the system entering a chaotic state.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    间接互惠模型研究社会规范如何促进合作。在这些模型中,合作的个人建立了积极的声誉,这反过来又有助于他们未来的互动。合作的确切声誉利益取决于现有的规范,这可能会随着时间的推移而改变。以往的研究主要集中在社会规范的稳定性上。人们对与许多其他人竞争时社会规范最初是如何演变的知之甚少。全面的进化分析,然而,一直很难。即使在所谓的三阶规范的相对简单的空间中,有成千上万的可能性,每个人都诱导自己的声誉动态。为了应对这一挑战,我们使用大规模的计算机模拟。我们研究了每个三阶范数的声誉动态以及它们之间的所有进化过渡。与只有少数规范的既定工作相反,我们发现,在混合良好的人群中,合作很难维持。然而,在群体结构的人群中,合作可以出现。在我们的模拟中最成功的规范是特别简单的。它认为合作是普遍积极的,叛逃通常是消极的,除非叛逃采取合理的惩罚形式。这项研究揭示了社会规范的复杂相互作用,他们诱导的声誉动态,和人口结构。
    Models of indirect reciprocity study how social norms promote cooperation. In these models, cooperative individuals build up a positive reputation, which in turn helps them in their future interactions. The exact reputational benefits of cooperation depend on the norm in place, which may change over time. Previous research focused on the stability of social norms. Much less is known about how social norms initially evolve when competing with many others. A comprehensive evolutionary analysis, however, has been difficult. Even among the comparably simple space of so-called third-order norms, there are thousands of possibilities, each one inducing its own reputation dynamics. To address this challenge, we use large-scale computer simulations. We study the reputation dynamics of each third-order norm and all evolutionary transitions between them. In contrast to established work with only a handful of norms, we find that cooperation is hard to maintain in well-mixed populations. However, within group-structured populations, cooperation can emerge. The most successful norm in our simulations is particularly simple. It regards cooperation as universally positive, and defection as usually negative-unless defection takes the form of justified punishment. This research sheds light on the complex interplay of social norms, their induced reputation dynamics, and population structure.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    对于一个理性的个体来说,更多的知识总是一个优势。然而,这篇文章表明,对于一群理性的个体来说,更多的知识可能适得其反,给所有人带来更糟糕的结果。令人惊讶的是,即使新知识并不意味着发现新行动,而只是提供了对利害关系的相互作用的更深入理解,这种情况也可能发生。更具体地说,增强对当前自然状态的了解可能会阻碍纯粹自利的个人之间的合作。本文描述了这种自相矛盾的可能性-“知识诅咒”-并分析了在以下情况下发生的进化过程:最初,只有少数人能获得更多的知识。最后对避免这种潜在知识反弹的方法进行了初步评论。
    Greater knowledge is always an advantage for a rational individual. However, this article shows that for a group of rational individuals greater knowledge can backfire, leading to a worse outcome for all. Surprisingly, this can happen even when new knowledge does not mean the discovery of a new action but simply provides a deeper understanding of the interaction at stake. More specifically, enhanced knowledge about the current state of nature may hinder cooperation among purely self-interested individuals. The paper describes this paradoxical possibility-a \'knowledge curse\'-and analyses the evolutionary process that occurs if, initially, only a few people have access to the greater knowledge. It concludes with a tentative comment on ways to avert this potential knowledge backlash.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    学习是一个分类学上普遍的过程,动物根据经验改变对刺激的行为反应。这样,它在个体行为的发展中起着至关重要的作用,并支持种群内的大量表型变异。然而,社会环境中学习对进化变化的影响还没有得到很好的理解。这里,我们开发了小团体中资源竞争的博弈论模型(例如生产者-斯基格和鹰鸽游戏),在这些模型中,行为由强化学习控制,并表明不同行为的主观评价中的偏见很容易演变。此外,在许多情况下,偏差的收敛稳定水平存在于适应度最小值,因此导致对学习规则的破坏性选择,潜在的,遗传多态性的进化。因此,我们展示了社会环境中的强化学习如何成为进化多样化的驱动力。此外,我们在游戏中考虑能力的进化,表明学习也可以驱动对执行任务的能力的破坏性选择。
    Learning is a taxonomically widespread process by which animals change their behavioural responses to stimuli as a result of experience. In this way, it plays a crucial role in the development of individual behaviour and underpins substantial phenotypic variation within populations. Nevertheless, the impact of learning in social contexts on evolutionary change is not well understood. Here, we develop game theoretical models of competition for resources in small groups (e.g. producer-scrounger and hawk-dove games) in which actions are controlled by reinforcement learning and show that biases in the subjective valuation of different actions readily evolve. Moreover, in many cases, the convergence stable levels of bias exist at fitness minima and therefore lead to disruptive selection on learning rules and, potentially, to the evolution of genetic polymorphisms. Thus, we show how reinforcement learning in social contexts can be a driver of evolutionary diversification. In addition, we consider the evolution of ability in our games, showing that learning can also drive disruptive selection on the ability to perform a task.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    推广绿色智能建筑是减少碳排放和环境污染的有效途径。如何制定合理实用的补贴机制对促进GIBs的发展至关重要。然而,目前还缺乏对动态补贴机制的研究。为了解决研究空白,基于消费者效用最大化理论,结合Hotelling模型,本文构建了地方政府与开发商之间的演化博弈模型,并讨论了动态补贴机制下双方参与者的决策和进化稳定策略(ESS)。此外,本文定义了一个符号事件,并深入分析了GIBs有效扩散的可能性。最后,本文提出了相应的政策建议,并得出以下结论:(1)引入动态补贴机制后,因此,地方政府有必要制定动态补贴政策;(2)在动态补贴机制下,不同的补贴调整率会影响系统的演化效率;(3)影响因素从高到低的敏感性如下:补贴调整率,对消费者的经济激励,传统建筑开发商的附加税,GIB开发商的碳交易收入和GIB购房者的综合住宅福利。改善这些因素可以增加GIBs有效扩散的可能性。
    The promotion of green intelligent buildings (GIBs) is regarded as an effective way to reduce carbon emissions and environmental pollution. How to formulate a reasonable and practical subsidy mechanism is crucial to promote the development of GIBs. However, there is still a lack of research on dynamic subsidy mechanism. To solve the research gap, based on consumer utility maximization theory, combining Hotelling model, the paper constructs an evolutionary game model between local governments and developers, and discusses the decision-making and evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) of both players under the dynamic subsidy mechanism. In addition, the paper defines a symbol event and analyzes in depth the possibility of effective diffusion of GIBs. Finally, the paper provides corresponding policy suggestions and draws the following conclusions: (1) ESS exists only after the introduction of dynamic subsidy mechanism, so it is necessary for local governments to formulate dynamic subsidy policies; (2) Under the dynamic subsidy mechanism, different subsidy adjustment rates will affect the evolutionary efficiency of the system; (3) The sensitivity of influence factors from high to low is as follows: subsidy adjustment rate, financial incentives for consumers, additional taxes for conventional buildings developers, carbon trading income for GIB developers and comprehensive residential benefits for GIB homebuyers. Improving these factors can increase the possibility of effective diffusion of GIBs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    创新产品进入市场会引起市场需求的动态变化,消费者的购买后悔和退货行为使市场环境越来越复杂,进而影响供应链的动态决策。在本文中,在离散决策时间的情况下,结合客观实际,我们对经典的Bass扩散模型(Bass模型)进行离散修改,构建一个制造商主导的,零售商跟随供应链微分博弈模型,结合离散最优控制理论,分析制造商和零售商的最优决策,然后通过数值模拟对结论进行验证。结果表明:当零售商直接从制造商处采购并在市场上销售时,创新产品的最优定价可以使供应链成为一个整体,实现帕累托最优;消费者的购买后悔会增加退货量,这将导致产品销量和制造商和零售商利润的下降;当创新产品在市场中的份额不同时,购买遗憾对批发价和零售价的影响也不同。因此,制造商需要对市场有广泛的了解,以最大程度地减少消费者后悔和退货的负面影响,并为其产品制定合理的定价策略,以获取尽可能多的利润。
    Innovative products entering the market will cause dynamic changes in market demand, and consumers\' purchase regret and their return behavior make the market environment more and more complex, which in turn affects the dynamic decision-making in the supply chain. In this paper, under the situation of discrete decision time, combining with the objective reality, we make discrete modification to the classical Bass diffusion model (Bass model), construct a manufacturer-led, retailer-followed supply chain differential game model, analyze the optimal decision-making of the manufacturer and the retailer by combining with the theory of discrete optimal control, and then verify the conclusions by numerical simulation. The results show that: when retailers purchase directly from the manufacturer and sell in the market, the optimal pricing of the innovative product can make the supply chain as a whole, realizing Pareto optimality; consumer\'s purchase regret will increase the amount of returns, which will lead to the decrease of product sales and the profits of the manufacturer and the retailer; when the innovative product accounts for a different share of the market, the impact of purchase regret on the wholesale price and the retail price are also different. Therefore, manufacturers need to have an extensive comprehension of the market to minimize the negative effects of consumer regret and returns, and to formulate a reasonable pricing strategy for their products to gain as much profit as possible.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在本文中,我们研究了基于个人的制度激励的成本优化问题(奖励,惩罚,和混合),用于保证在混合良好的环境中一定程度的合作行为,有限的人口。在这个方案中,人口中的个人通过合作困境(捐赠游戏或公共物品游戏)进行互动,其中只有在合作不够丰富的情况下才能进行制度奖励(即,合作者的数量低于阈值1≤t≤N-1,其中N是种群大小);同样,只有在叛逃过多的情况下,才会进行制度性惩罚。我们分析了小突变极限假设和两种不同初始状态下奖励激励的情况t=1,表明成本函数总是不递减的。当选择强度趋于零和无穷大时,我们得出中性漂移和强选择极限,分别。我们对t的其他值和具有任意突变率的种群动态进行了数值研究。
    In this paper, we study the problem of cost optimisation of individual-based institutional incentives (reward, punishment, and hybrid) for guaranteeing a certain minimal level of cooperative behaviour in a well-mixed, finite population. In this scheme, the individuals in the population interact via cooperation dilemmas (Donation Game or Public Goods Game) in which institutional reward is carried out only if cooperation is not abundant enough (i.e., the number of cooperators is below a threshold 1 ≤ t ≤ N - 1 , where N is the population size); and similarly, institutional punishment is carried out only when defection is too abundant. We study analytically the cases t = 1 for the reward incentive under the small mutation limit assumption and two different initial states, showing that the cost function is always non-decreasing. We derive the neutral drift and strong selection limits when the intensity of selection tends to zero and infinity, respectively. We numerically investigate the problem for other values of t and for population dynamics with arbitrary mutation rates.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    进化生物学的一个主要目标是阐明共同的原则,促使人类和其他动物社会采用好战或和平的性质。对人类社会之间侵略变化的一种拟议解释是民主和平假设。根据这个理论,专制比民主更好战,因为专制领导人可以为私人利益而战。然而,专制和民主决策过程并不是人类所独有的,并且在各种非人类动物社会中得到广泛观察。我们使用进化博弈论来评估民主和平的逻辑是否适用于整个分类单元;特别是采用经典的Hawk-Dove模型来考虑由团体而不是个人做出的冲突决策。我们在没有涉及复杂人类机构的机制的情况下找到了对民主和平假说的支持,并讨论了这些发现如何与非人类动物社会相关。我们建议,集体决策的共享程度可以解释自然界中群体间冲突强度的变化。
    A major goal in evolutionary biology is to elucidate common principles that drive human and other animal societies to adopt either a warlike or peaceful nature. One proposed explanation for the variation in aggression between human societies is the democratic peace hypothesis. According to this theory, autocracies are more warlike than democracies because autocratic leaders can pursue fights for private gain. However, autocratic and democratic decision-making processes are not unique to humans and are widely observed across a diverse range of non-human animal societies. We use evolutionary game theory to evaluate whether the logic of democratic peace may apply across taxa; specifically adapting the classic Hawk-Dove model to consider conflict decisions made by groups rather than individuals. We find support for the democratic peace hypothesis without mechanisms involving complex human institutions and discuss how these findings might be relevant to non-human animal societies. We suggest that the degree to which collective decisions are shared may explain variation in the intensity of intergroup conflict in nature.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    了解社会活动与疾病动态之间的相互作用对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要。最近使用行为-疾病耦合模型的研究假设了同质人群。然而,人口异质性,比如不同的社会群体,不能忽视。在这项研究中,我们将人群分为社交媒体用户和非用户,并调查了同质性(个体与他人相似的倾向)和在线事件对疾病动态的影响。我们的结果表明,同性恋阻碍了疫苗接种策略的采用,将方法加速到一个临界点,在这个临界点之后,人口收敛到一个没有疫苗摄取的地方性平衡。此外,我们发现在线事件可以显著影响疾病动态,社交媒体平台上的早期讨论作为潜在疾病爆发的预警信号。我们的模型提供了对这些现象的潜在机制的见解,并强调了在疾病建模和公共卫生策略中考虑同质性的重要性。
    Understanding the interplay between social activities and disease dynamics is crucial for effective public health interventions. Recent studies using coupled behavior-disease models assumed homogeneous populations. However, heterogeneity in population, such as different social groups, cannot be ignored. In this study, we divided the population into social media users and non-users, and investigated the impact of homophily (the tendency for individuals to associate with others similar to themselves) and online events on disease dynamics. Our results reveal that homophily hinders the adoption of vaccinating strategies, hastening the approach to a tipping point after which the population converges to an endemic equilibrium with no vaccine uptake. Furthermore, we find that online events can significantly influence disease dynamics, with early discussions on social media platforms serving as an early warning signal of potential disease outbreaks. Our model provides insights into the mechanisms underlying these phenomena and underscores the importance of considering homophily in disease modeling and public health strategies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    纵观世界各国的煤炭开采历史,留下了大面积的采空区,可能发生大面积采空区的突然塌陷和地表沉降,特别是采矿周期长的矿区。辽源矿区北部新区经历了近半个世纪的采矿活动,伴随着灾难的逐渐积累,近年来经常发生。为了评估研究区采空区的稳定性,提出了一种混合决策多因素综合评价方法。利用地球物理勘探技术(地震勘探和瞬变电磁法)和地质钻探勘探确定了地下采空区的分布。首先,建立了基于采空区规范的评价指标体系,生态和地质环境,和开采条件;该系统包括14项指标。两种重量计算方法,AHP-EWM,在改进的博弈理论基础上,结合主客观权重确定各指标的综合权重。随后,利用模糊综合评价法对研究区各区块进行稳定性评价,利用MapGIS和ArcGIS完成了北部新区采空区稳定性区划图的绘制。研究区分为三个稳定区,基本稳定和不稳定,根据临界值。这些区域占23.03%,占研究区总面积的36.45%和40.52%,分别。全面的现场调查显示,从不稳定区到稳定区,塌陷坑的大小和数量以及房屋的损毁率都有所下降。这表明划分结果与实际情况相符。分类结果与实际地面灾害情况一致,从而验证了评价方法的合理性和有效性。结果表明,研究区的稳定性总体上处于中等偏下水平。
    Throughout the history of coal mining in all countries of the world, large areas of goaf have been left behind, and sudden collapses and surface subsidence of large areas of goaf may occur, especially for mining areas with long mining cycles. The northern new district of the Liaoyuan mining area has been subjected to nearly half a century of mining activities, accompanied by a gradual accumulation of disasters, which have occurred frequently in recent years. In order to assess the stability of the goaf in the study area, this paper proposes a hybrid decision-making multi-factor integrated evaluation method. The distribution of underground goafs was determined using geophysical exploration techniques (seismic survey and transient electromagnetic method) and geological drilling exploration. First, an evaluation index system was established based on the specifications of the goaf, the ecological and geological environment, and the mining conditions; the system included 14 indicators. Two weight calculation methods, AHP-EWM, were employed to determine the comprehensive weight of each indicator by combining subjective and objective weights on the basis of improved game theory. Subsequently, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was utilised to complete the stability rating of each block in the study area, and MapGIS and ArcGIS were employed to complete the drawing of the stability zoning map of the northern new district goaf. The study area was divided into three zones of stability, basic stability and instability, according to the critical value. These zones accounted for 23.03%, 36.45% and 40.52% of the total area of the study area, respectively. The comprehensive on-site investigation revealed a decrease in the size and number of collapse pits and the rate of damage to the houses from the unstable zone to the stable zone. This indicates that the results of the division are consistent with the actual situation. The classification results are consistent with the actual ground disaster situation, thus verifying the rationality and validity of the evaluation method. The results indicate that the stability of the study area is generally at the lower middle level.
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