造林对于隔离大气碳很重要,它是缓解全球气候变化的一种具有成本效益和基于自然的解决方案(NBS)。这里,在潜在的可移植土地上造林的假设下,我们使用森林碳固存(FCS)模型和涉及3365个森林地块的实地调查,评估了2010年至2060年中国现有和新造林森林在三种造林和三种气候情景下的碳固存率(CSR)。不考虑极端事件和人为干扰的影响,中国森林的平均CSR估计为0.358±0.016PgCa-1,分配为生物量(0.211±0.016PgCa-1)和土壤(0.147±0.005PgCa-1),分别。现有森林约占企业社会责任的93.5%,将在2035年左右达到峰值,2035年后总体呈现下降趋势。2035年后,需要有效的抚育管理来保持较高的企业社会责任水平,例如选择性切割,变薄,和近似干扰。然而,从2015年开始,在潜在的可移植土地上进行新的造林将在额外的企业社会责任增加中发挥最小的作用。在中国,东北地区的企业社会责任普遍较高,西南,中南,在西北部较低。考虑到森林砍伐和伐木可能造成的损失,据估计,从2010年到2060年,中国森林的企业社会责任将保持在0.161-0.358PgCa-1的范围内。总的来说,在2010-2060年期间,森林有可能抵消中国国家人为碳排放量的14.1%,通过对现有森林实施有效的管理战略和扩大造林,大大有助于实现2060年的碳中和目标。
Forestation is important for sequestering atmospheric carbon, and it is a cost-effective and nature-based solution (NBS) for mitigating global climate change. Here, under the assumption of
forestation in the potential plantable lands, we used the forest carbon sequestration (FCS) model and field survey involving 3365 forest plots to assess the carbon sequestration rate (CSR) of Chinese existing and new
forestation forests from 2010 to 2060 under three
forestation and three climate scenarios. Without considering the influence of extreme events and human disturbance, the estimated average CSR in Chinese forests was 0.358 ± 0.016 Pg C a-1, with partitioning to biomass (0.211 ± 0.016 Pg C a-1) and soil (0.147 ± 0.005 Pg C a-1), respectively. The existing forests account for approximately 93.5% of the CSR, which will peak near 2035, and decreasing trend was present overall after 2035. After 2035, effective tending management is required to maintain the high CSR level, such as selective cutting, thinning, and approximate disturbance. However, new
forestation from 2015 in the potential plantable lands would play a minimal role in additional CSR increases. In China, the CSR is generally higher in the Northeast, Southwest, and Central-South, and lower in the Northwest. Considering the potential losses through deforestation and logging, it is realistically estimated that CSR in Chinese forests would remain in the range of 0.161-0.358 Pg C a-1 from 2010 to 2060. Overall, forests have the potential to offset 14.1% of the national anthropogenic carbon emissions in China over the period of 2010-2060, significantly contributing to the carbon neutrality target of 2060 with the implementation of effective management strategies for existing forests and expansion of forestation.