Abstract：
The terrestrial ecosystem in China mitigates 21%-45% of the national contemporary fossil fuel CO2 emissions every year. Maintaining and strengthening the land carbon sink is essential for reaching China\'s target of carbon neutrality. However, this sink is subject to large uncertainties due to the joint impacts of climate change, air pollution, and human activities. Here, we explore the potential of strengthening land carbon sink in China through anthropogenic interventions, including forestation, ozone reduction, and litter removal, taking advantage of a well-validated dynamic vegetation model and meteorological forcings from 16 climate models. Without anthropogenic interventions, considering Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, the land sink is projected to be 0.26-0.56 Pg C a-1 at 2060, to which climate change contributes 0.06-0.13 Pg C a-1 and CO2 fertilization contributes 0.08-0.44 Pg C a-1 with the stronger effects for higher emission scenarios. With anthropogenic interventions, under a close-to-neutral emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), the land sink becomes 0.47-0.57 Pg C a-1 at 2060, including the contributions of 0.12 Pg C a-1 by conservative forestation, 0.07 Pg C a-1 by ozone pollution control, and 0.06-0.16 Pg C a-1 by 20% litter removal over planted forest. This sink can mitigate 90%-110% of the residue anthropogenic carbon emissions in 2060, providing a solid foundation for the carbon neutrality in China.
摘要：
中国陆地生态系统每年减少21％-45％的当代国家化石燃料二氧化碳排放量。保持和强化陆地碳汇对于实现中国碳中和目标至关重要。然而,由于气候变化的共同影响，这个汇面临很大的不确定性，空气污染,和人类活动。这里,我们探索了通过人为干预加强中国土地碳汇的潜力，包括造林,减少臭氧,和垃圾清除，利用经过充分验证的动态植被模型和16个气候模型的气象强迫。如果没有人为干预，考虑共享社会经济途径(SSP)方案，到2060年，土地汇预计为0.26-0.56PgCa-1，其中气候变化贡献0.06-0.13PgCa-1，CO2施肥贡献0.08-0.44PgCa-1，对更高的排放情景具有更强的影响。通过人为干预，在接近中性的排放情景(SS1-2.6)下，到2060年，土地汇为0.47-0.57PgCa-1，包括保守造林对0.12PgCa-1的贡献，0.07PgCa-1通过臭氧污染控制，和0.06-0.16PgCa-1，在人工林上去除20％的凋落物。该碳汇可以在2060年减少90％-110％的人为碳排放，为中国的碳中和提供了坚实的基础。
