背景:2022年在美国进行的一项调查发现,人们对参与政治暴力的支持和个人意愿非常高。与这种暴力有关的信仰,并相信内战可能在不久的将来。重要的是要确定这些发现的持久性。
方法:全国代表性队列调查的第2波进行了2023年5月18日至6月8日;样本包括2022年第1波的所有受访者。结果以加权比例表示;2022年至2023年的变化适用于参与两项调查的受访者,基于汇总的个人更改分数。
结果:完成率为84.2%;有9385名受访者。加权后,50.7%(95%置信区间(CI)49.4%,52.1%)为女性;加权平均(SD)年龄为48.5(25.9)岁。约1/20的受访者(5.7%,95%CI5.1%,6.4%)强烈/非常强烈地同意“在未来几年,美国将会有内战,“下降7.7%。2023年,更少的受访者认为暴力通常/总是有理由推进17个具体政治目标中的至少一个[25.3%(95%CI24.7%,26.5%),下降6.8%]。然而,更多的受访者认为,在未来几年内,在他们认为政治暴力是合理的情况下,“我将用枪武装”[9.0%(95%可信区间8.3%,9.8%),增加2.2%]和“我会用枪射击某人”[1.8%(95%可信区间1.4%,2.2%),增长0.6%]。在认为暴力通常/总是有理由推进至少一个政治目标的受访者中,大约20人中有1人还认为他们很/极有可能用枪威胁某人(5.4%,95%CI4.0%,7.0%)或射杀某人(5.7%,95%CI4.3%,7.1%)推进这一目标。
结论:在这个队列中,从2022年到2023年,对政治暴力的支持有所下降,但对政治暴力中使用枪支的预测有所增加。这些发现可以帮助指导预防工作,这是迫切需要的。
BACKGROUND: A 2022 survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, of beliefs associated with such violence, and of belief that civil war was likely in the near future. It is important to determine the durability of those findings.
METHODS: Wave 2 of a nationally representative cohort survey was conducted May 18-June 8, 2023; the sample comprised all respondents to 2022\'s Wave 1. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions; changes from 2022 to 2023 are for respondents who participated in both surveys, based on aggregated individual change scores.
RESULTS: The completion rate was 84.2%; there were 9385 respondents. After weighting, 50.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.4%, 52.1%) were female; weighted mean (SD) age was 48.5 (25.9) years. About 1 in 20 respondents (5.7%, 95% CI 5.1%, 6.4%) agreed strongly/very strongly that \"in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States,\" a 7.7% decrease. In 2023, fewer respondents considered violence to be usually/always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specific political objectives [25.3% (95% CI 24.7%, 26.5%), a 6.8% decrease]. However, more respondents thought it very/extremely likely that within the next few years, in a situation where they consider political violence justified, \"I will be armed with a gun\" [9.0% (95% CI 8.3%, 9.8%), a 2.2% increase] and \"I will shoot someone with a gun\" [1.8% (95% CI 1.4%, 2.2%), a 0.6% increase]. Among respondents who considered violence usually/always justified to advance at least 1 political objective, about 1 in 20 also thought it very/extremely likely that they would threaten someone with a gun (5.4%, 95% CI 4.0%, 7.0%) or shoot someone (5.7%, 95% CI 4.3%, 7.1%) to advance such an objective.
CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, support for political violence declined from 2022 to 2023, but predictions of firearm use in political violence increased. These findings can help guide prevention efforts, which are urgently needed.