Endoscopic variceal ligation

内镜下静脉曲张结扎术
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    内镜下静脉曲张结扎术(EVL)后出血可能是多种因素的结果,包括直径太大无法完全结扎的食管静脉曲张(EV)。本研究旨在开发一种基于人工智能的内窥镜虚拟尺(EVR)来测量EV的直径,以期找到更适合EVL的病例。
    本研究是一项多中心回顾性研究,包括727例肝硬化合并EV患者的1,062例EVL,从2016年4月到2023年3月接受EVL。根据术后6周是否发生出血分为早期再出血组(n=80)和非再出血组(n=982)。患者基线数据的特点,分析术后6周的再出血情况和再出血后6周的生存状况.
    1,062例EVL手术后的早期再出血率为7.5%,出血后6周死亡率为16.5%。单因素二元logistic回归分析的结果表明,EVL后早期再出血的危险因素包括:高TB(P=0.009),低Alb(P=0.001),高PT(P=0.004),PVT(P=0.026),肝癌(P=0.018),高Child-Pugh评分(P<0.001),Child-PughC级(P<0.001),高MELD评分(P=0.004),日本静脉曲张F3级(P<0.001),EV直径(P<0.001),结扎环数(P=0.029)。多因素二元logistic回归分析的结果表明,Child-PughC级(P=0.007),日本静脉曲张F3级(P=0.009),和EV直径(P<0.001)可能在预测EVL后早期再出血方面表现出潜力。ROC分析表明,EV直径的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.848,日本静脉曲张等级的AUC为0.635,具有统计学意义(P<0.001)。因此,本研究的结果表明,与日本静脉曲张分级标准相比,EV直径在预测EVL术后早期再出血方面更优.EV直径的截止值计算为1.35cm(灵敏度,70.0%;特异性,89.2%)。
    如果EV的直径≥1.4cm,EVL手术后可能存在早期再出血的高风险;因此,我们建议谨慎使用EVL。
    UNASSIGNED: Bleeding following endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) may occur as a result of numerous factors, including a diameter of esophageal varices (EV) that is too large to be completely ligated. The present study aimed to develop an artificial intelligence-based endoscopic virtual ruler (EVR) to measure the diameter of EV with a view to finding more suitable cases for EVL.
    UNASSIGNED: The present study was a multicenter retrospective study that included a total of 1,062 EVLs in 727 patients with liver cirrhosis with EV, who underwent EVL from April 2016 to March 2023. Patients were divided into early rebleeding (n = 80) and non-rebleeding groups (n = 982) according to whether postoperative bleeding occurred at 6 weeks. The characteristics of patient baseline data, the status of rebleeding at 6 weeks after surgery and the survival status at 6 weeks after rebleeding were analyzed.
    UNASSIGNED: The early rebleeding rate following 1,062 EVL procedures was 7.5%, and the mortality rate at 6 weeks after bleeding was 16.5%. Results of the one-way binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the risk factors for early rebleeding following EVL included: high TB (P = 0.009), low Alb (P = 0.001), high PT (P = 0.004), PVT (P = 0.026), HCC (P = 0.018), high Child-Pugh score (P < 0.001), Child-Pugh grade C(P < 0.001), high MELD score(P = 0.004), Japanese variceal grade F3 (P < 0.001), diameter of EV (P < 0.001), and number of ligature rings (P = 0.029). Results of the multifactorial binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that Child-Pugh grade C (P = 0.007), Japanese variceal grade F3 (P = 0.009), and diameter of EV (P < 0.001) may exhibit potential in predicting early rebleeding following EVL. ROC analysis demonstrated that the area under curve (AUC) for EV diameter was 0.848, and the AUC for Japanese variceal grade was 0.635, which was statistically significant (P < 0.001). Thus, results of the present study demonstrated that EV diameter was more optimal in predicting early rebleeding following EVL than Japanese variceal grade criteria. The cut-off value of EV diameter was calculated to be 1.35 cm (sensitivity, 70.0%; specificity, 89.2%).
    UNASSIGNED: If the diameter of EV is ≥1.4 cm, there may be a high risk of early rebleeding following EVL surgery; thus, we recommend caution with EVL.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    静脉曲张出血是肝硬化的重要并发症,它的存在反映了肝脏疾病的严重程度。胃静脉曲张,虽然不如食管静脉曲张常见,由于其更高的出血强度和相关的死亡率,提出了一个独特的临床挑战。根据Sarin分类,GOV1是临床实践中最常见的胃静脉曲张亚型。
    Variceal bleed represents an important complication of cirrhosis, with its presence reflecting the severity of liver disease. Gastric varices, though less frequently seen than esophageal varices, present a distinct clinical challenge due to its higher intensity of bleeding and associated mortality. Based upon the Sarin classification, GOV1 is the most common subtype of gastric varices seen in clinical practice.
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  • 文章类型: Case Reports
    全胃切除术后发生的食管空肠静脉曲张很少见,但在静脉曲张破裂出血的情况下可能致命。由于它们的稀有性,这种情况的治疗策略还没有得到很好的确立。这里,我们描述了一个48岁的女性,她出现了呕血和黑便。四年前,她接受了胃癌全胃切除术。由扩张的空肠静脉提供的食管空肠静脉曲张出血,伴随着肝硬化,根据内窥镜检查和计算机断层扫描结果诊断。最初的内窥镜治疗尝试均未成功。随后,经颈静脉肝内门体分流术是为了降低门静脉压力梯度,导致出血停止。在1个月的随访内窥镜检查时,静脉曲张已经解决了,随访6个月期间未发生再出血.经颈静脉肝内门体分流术可被认为是食管空肠静脉曲张破裂出血的有效治疗选择。
    Esophagojejunal varices occurring after total gastrectomy are rare but potentially fatal in cases of variceal bleeding. Owing to their rarity, treatment strategies for this condition are not well established. Here, we describe the case of a 48-year-old woman who presented with hematemesis and melena. Four years prior, she underwent a total gastrectomy for gastric cancer. Esophagojejunal variceal bleeding supplied by a dilated jejunal vein, along with liver cirrhosis, was diagnosed as per endoscopy and computed tomography findings. Initial attempts at endoscopic therapy were unsuccessful. Subsequently, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement was performed to reduce the portal pressure gradient, resulting in the cessation of bleeding. At the 1-month follow-up endoscopy, the varices had resolved, and no rebleeding occurred during 6 months of follow-up. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement may be considered as an effective treatment option for esophagojejunal variceal bleeding.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    食管癌是中国最常见的十种癌症。随着高质量内镜和色素内镜技术的进步,早期食管癌可以更容易诊断,甚至合并食管胃底静脉曲张。早期食管癌内镜切除术是早期食管癌的微创治疗方法,内镜黏膜下剥离术(ESD)是早期食管癌的标准治疗方法之一,本研究中的患者在ESD手术前使用内镜下静脉曲张结扎术和内镜下注射组织胶和硬化剂后成功接受了ESD治疗。ESD治疗早期食管癌合并食管胃底静脉曲张肝硬化患者是安全可行的。
    Esophageal cancer ranked ten of the most common cancers in China. With the advancement of high-quality endoscopy and chromoendoscopic technique, early esophageal cancer can be diagnosed more easily, even combined with esophageal-gastric fundal varices. Endoscopic resection of early esophageal cancer is a minimally invasive treatment method for early esophageal cancer, and endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is one of the standard treatments for early esophageal cancer in view of the risk of bleeding, the patient in this study successfully received ESD treatment after using endoscopic variceal ligation and endoscopic injection of tissue glue and sclerosing agent before ESD surgery. ESD treatment is safe and feasible for early esophageal cancer patients with cirrhosis of esophageal-gastric fundal varices.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:我们旨在开发并验证一种简单的评分系统,以预测食管静脉曲张破裂出血内镜下静脉曲张套扎术(EVL)后的院内死亡率。
    方法:来自46个日本机构的13年研究的数据分为发展(最初7年)和验证(最后6年)队列。研究对象为因食管静脉曲张破裂出血住院并接受EVL治疗的患者。使用最小绝对收缩和选择算子回归进行变量选择,以院内全因死亡率为目标。我们从多变量逻辑回归的β系数开发了内窥镜静脉曲张结扎术(HOPE-EVL)评分后的医院结果预测,并评估了其辨别和校准。
    结果:该研究包括980例患者:发展队列536例,验证队列444例。两组的住院死亡率分别为13.6%和10.1%。评分系统使用了五个变量:收缩压(<80mmHg:2分),格拉斯哥昏迷量表(≤12:1分),总胆红素(≥5mg/dL:1分),肌酐(≥1.5mg/dL:1分),和白蛋白(<2.8g/dL:1分)。验证队列中的风险组(低:0-1,中:2-3,高:≥4)对应于2.0%和2.5%的观察和预测死亡率概率,19.0%和22.9%,分别为57.6%和71.9%,分别。在这个队列中,与终末期肝病模型评分(AUC0.853;95%CI0.794-0.912)和Child-Pugh评分(AUC0.798;95%CI0.727-0.869)相比,HOPE-EVL评分表现出优异的辨别能力(曲线下面积[AUC]0.890;95%CI0.850-0.930).
    结论:HOPE-EVL评分可有效预测住院死亡率。该分数可以促进资源的适当分配以及与患者及其家人的有效沟通。
    OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict in-hospital mortality after endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) for esophageal variceal bleeding.
    METHODS: Data from a 13-year study involving 46 Japanese institutions were split into development (initial 7 years) and validation (last 6 years) cohorts. The study subjects were patients hospitalized for esophageal variceal bleeding and treated with EVL. Variable selection was performed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, targeting in-hospital all-cause mortality as the outcome. We developed the Hospital Outcome Prediction following Endoscopic Variceal Ligation (HOPE-EVL) score from β coefficients of multivariate logistic regression and assessed its discrimination and calibration.
    RESULTS: The study included 980 patients: 536 in the development cohort and 444 in the validation cohort. In-hospital mortality was 13.6% and 10.1% for the respective cohorts. The scoring system used five variables: systolic blood pressure (<80 mmHg: 2 points), Glasgow Coma Scale (≤12: 1 point), total bilirubin (≥5 mg/dL: 1 point), creatinine (≥1.5 mg/dL: 1 point), and albumin (<2.8 g/dL: 1 point). The risk groups (low: 0-1, middle: 2-3, high: ≥4) in the validation cohort corresponded to observed and predicted mortality probabilities of 2.0% and 2.5%, 19.0% and 22.9%, and 57.6% and 71.9%, respectively. In this cohort, the HOPE-EVL score demonstrated excellent discrimination ability (area under the curve [AUC] 0.890; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.850-0.930) compared with the Model for End-stage Liver Disease score (AUC 0.853; 95% CI 0.794-0.912) and the Child-Pugh score (AUC 0.798; 95% CI 0.727-0.869).
    CONCLUSIONS: The HOPE-EVL score practically and effectively predicts in-hospital mortality. This score could facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources and effective communication with patients and their families.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    失代偿期肝硬化与死亡率的风险显著增加有关。静脉曲张出血(VH)进一步增加死亡风险,以及未来的静脉曲张出血事件。非选择性β受体阻滞剂(NSBB)是VH一级和二级预防的有效疗法,已成为肝硬化药物治疗的基石。β受体阻滞剂与降低总死亡率和胃肠道出血相关死亡率相关;它们也可能在失代偿期肝硬化患者中赋予血液动力学独立的有益效果。长期使用β受体阻滞剂治疗可能会改善代偿性肝硬化伴临床上显着门脉高压(CSPH)的无代偿期生存率。卡维地洛比传统的NSBB更有效地降低肝静脉门静脉梯度,并已被证明可以改善代偿性肝硬化的生存率。CSPH代偿性肝硬化的治疗目标应集中在早期使用β受体阻滞剂以防止代偿失调并降低死亡率。
    Decompensated cirrhosis is associated with a significantly increased risk of mortality. Variceal hemorrhage (VH) further increases the risk of mortality, and of future variceal bleed events. Non-selective beta-blockers (NSBBs) are effective therapy for primary and secondary prophylaxis of VH and have become the cornerstone of pharmacologic therapy in cirrhosis. Beta-blockers are associated with reduced overall mortality and GI-bleeding related mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis; they may also confer hemodynamically independent beneficial effects. Long-term treatment with beta-blockers may improve decompensation-free survival in compensated cirrhosis with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). Carvedilol more effectively lowers the hepatic vein portal gradient than traditional NSBBs and has been shown to improve survival in compensated cirrhosis. Treatment goals in compensated cirrhosis with CSPH should focus on early utilization of beta-blockers to prevent decompensation and reduce mortality.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    管理胃静脉曲张(GV)出血比管理食管静脉曲张(EV)出血更复杂,导致更高的发病率和死亡率。我们的目的是比较内镜下静脉曲张结扎术(EVL)的结果,经肝内门体分流术(TIPS),和球囊闭塞逆行经静脉闭塞(BRTO)治疗GV出血。
    我们利用2016年1月至2019年12月的全国住院患者样本(NIS)数据库纳入GV出血的成年患者。
    我们的研究确定了7160例住院治疗,主要诊断为GV出血,他们接受了感兴趣的干预措施。执行EVL的比例为69.83%,TIPS在8.72%,和BRTO在4.88%。肝硬化患者接受BRTO的频率较高(68.6%),其次是TIPS(64.0%)和食管胃十二指肠镜(EGD)+TIPS(63.7%)(P<0.001)。酒精中毒继发肝硬化患者TIPS患病率较高(62.4%),其次是EGD+TIPS(69.4%)和BRTO(52.9%)(P<0.001)。总的来说,住院患者死亡率为6.5%.总住院死亡率在TIPS队列中最高(8.8%),其次是BRTO(7.1%),EGD+提示(6.5%),EVL(6.2%),和EGD+BRTO(2.8%)(P<0.001);然而,Kaplan-Meier图显示BRTO内窥镜检查具有最有利的30天生存率,仅由TIPS和BRTO落后。
    EVL仍然是一种突出的治疗策略。值得注意的是,内镜与BRTO的联合显示了有希望的30天生存结局.考虑到这些观察,尽管EVL占据主导地位,在大型研究中进一步探讨联合疗法的潜在益处以确定最佳治疗策略至关重要.
    UNASSIGNED: Managing gastric variceal (GV) hemorrhage is more complicated than managing esophageal variceal (EV) bleeding, resulting in significantly higher morbidity and mortality. We aim to compare the outcomes of endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL), transhepatic intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS), and balloon-occluded retrograde transvenous obliteration (BRTO) in the management of GV bleeding.
    UNASSIGNED: We utilized the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database from January 2016 to December 2019 to include adult patients with GV hemorrhage.
    UNASSIGNED: Our study identified 7160 hospitalizations with a primary diagnosis of GV hemorrhage who underwent the interventions of interest. EVL was performed in 69.83%, TIPS in 8.72%, and BRTO in 4.88%. Patients with liver cirrhosis had a higher frequency of undergoing BRTO (68.6%), followed by TIPS (64.0%) and esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) + TIPS (63.7%) (P < 0.001). Patients with cirrhosis secondary to alcoholism had a higher prevalence of TIPS (62.4%), followed by EGD + TIPS (69.4%) and BRTO (52.9%) (P < 0.001). Overall, the inpatient mortality was 6.5%. Overall inpatient mortality was highest in the TIPS cohort (8.8%), followed by BRTO (7.1%), EGD + TIPS (6.5%), EVL (6.2%), and EGD + BRTO (2.8%) (P < 0.001); However, the Kaplan-Meier graph showed endoscopy with BRTO had the most favorable 30-day survival, trailed by TIPS alone and BRTO alone.
    UNASSIGNED: EVL remains a prominent therapeutic strategy. Remarkably, the combination of endoscopy with BRTO shows promising 30-day survival outcomes. Considering these observations, although EVL holds its primacy, it is essential to further explore the potential benefits of combined therapies in larger studies to ascertain the best treatment strategies.
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  • 文章类型: Meta-Analysis
    目的:非选择性β受体阻滞剂(NSBBs)和内镜下静脉曲张结扎术(EVL)预防首次静脉曲张出血的疗效相似。代偿和失代偿期肝硬化是明显不同的阶段,这可能会影响治疗结果。我们的目的是评估NSBBs与EVL对无既往出血的高危静脉曲张患者生存的疗效。根据肝硬化代偿/失代偿期进行风险分层。
    方法:通过系统评价,我们确定了比较NSBB和EVL的RCT,在单一疗法或联合疗法中,用于预防原发性出血。我们承担了竞争风险,事件发生时间荟萃分析,使用从RCTs的主要研究者获得的个体患者数据(IPD)。根据先前的肝硬化代偿失调进行分层分析。
    结果:在25个符合条件的RCT中,14个未能提供IPD,11个被包括在内,包括1400名患者(656名代偿,744失代偿),用NSBB处理(N=625),EVL(N=546)或NSBB+EVL(N=229)。组间基线特征相似。总的来说,EVL与EVL的死亡风险相似。NSBB(亚分布危险比(sHR)=1.05,95%CI=0.75-1.49)和EVLNSBB与单药治疗,异质性低(I2=28.7%)。在补偿患者中,EVL与NSBBs的死亡风险更高(sHR=1.76,95%CI=1.11-2.77),而NSBBsEVL与NSBBs的死亡风险并没有显着降低,无异质性(I2=0%)。在失代偿患者中,EVL与EVL的死亡风险相似。NSBB和NSBB+EVL与要么是单一疗法。
    结论:在初级预防的代偿性肝硬化和高危静脉曲张患者中,与EVL相比,NSBB显着提高了生存率,没有注意到将EVL添加到NSBB的额外好处。在失代偿患者中,两种疗法的生存率相似.研究表明,在代偿患者中建议预防性治疗时,NSBB是优选的。
    Non-selective β-blockers (NSBBs) and endoscopic variceal-ligation (EVL) have similar efficacy preventing first variceal bleeding. Compensated and decompensated cirrhosis are markedly different stages, which may impact treatment outcomes. We aimed to assess the efficacy of NSBBs vs EVL on survival in patients with high-risk varices without previous bleeding, stratifying risk according to compensated/decompensated stage of cirrhosis.
    By systematic review, we identified RCTs comparing NSBBs vs EVL, in monotherapy or combined, for primary bleeding prevention. We performed a competing-risk, time-to-event meta-analysis, using individual patient data (IPD) obtained from principal investigators of RCTs. Analyses were stratified according to previous decompensation of cirrhosis.
    Of 25 RCTs eligible, 14 failed to provide IPD and 11 were included, comprising 1400 patients (656 compensated, 744 decompensated), treated with NSBBs (N = 625), EVL (N = 546) or NSBB+EVL (N = 229). Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Overall, mortality risk was similar with EVL vs. NSBBs (subdistribution hazard-ratio (sHR) = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.75-1.49) and with EVL + NSBBs vs either monotherapy, with low heterogeneity (I2  = 28.7%). In compensated patients, mortality risk was higher with EVL vs NSBBs (sHR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.11-2.77) and not significantly lower with NSBBs+EVL vs NSBBs, without heterogeneity (I2  = 0%). In decompensated patients, mortality risk was similar with EVL vs. NSBBs and with NSBBs+EVL vs. either monotherapy.
    In patients with compensated cirrhosis and high-risk varices on primary prophylaxis, NSBBs significantly improved survival vs EVL, with no additional benefit noted adding EVL to NSBBs. In decompensated patients, survival was similar with both therapies. The study suggests that NSBBs are preferable when advising preventive therapy in compensated patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:肝硬化患者在内镜下静脉曲张套扎术(EVL)后很少发生危及生命的出血。本研究旨在评估计算机断层扫描(CT)在预测肝硬化患者EVL后早期出血风险方面的表现。
    方法:我们回顾性调查了285例接受EVL的肝硬化患者。EVL用于预防或急性静脉曲张破裂出血。将患者分为2组:早期出血(EVL后<14天)和非早期出血。我们比较了患者组之间的基线特征,包括CT检查结果。
    结果:在接受EVL治疗的285例患者中,19例患者(6.7%)出现早期出血。平均而言,这些出血发生在EVL后9.3±3.5天,范围为3到13天。与非早期出血组相比,经历早期出血的患者六周出血相关死亡率更高(31.6%vs.10.2%;p=0.014)。内镜下观察到的食管静脉曲张分级与CT上观察到的食管静脉曲张直径之间存在相关性(p<0.001)。CT上的食管静脉曲张直径被确定为早期出血的唯一重要预测因素(p=0.005)。
    结论:在CT上观察到较大的食管静脉曲张直径与EVL治疗后早期出血的风险增加相关。早期识别此高危人群可以改变治疗策略以改善患者预后。
    BACKGROUND: Life-threatening bleeding following endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) in patients with cirrhosis rarely can occur. The present study aimed to evaluate the performance of computed tomography (CT) in predicting the risk of early bleeding following EVL in cirrhotic patients.
    METHODS: We retrospectively investigated 285 cirrhotic patients who had undergone EVL. EVL was performed for prophylaxis or acute variceal bleeding. The patients were classified into 2 groups: early bleeding (< 14 days after EVL) and non-early bleeding. We compared baseline characteristics including CT findings between the patient groups.
    RESULTS: Among the 285 patients who underwent EVL treatment, 19 patients (6.7%) experienced early bleeding. On average, these bleeding occurred 9.3 ± 3.5 days after the EVL, with a range of 3 to 13 days. Patients who experience early bleeding had a higher six-week bleeding-related mortality rate compared to those in the non-early bleeding group (31.6% vs. 10.2%; p = 0.014). There was a correlation between the grade of esophageal varix observed during endoscopy and the diameter of esophageal varix observed on CT (p < 0.001). The diameter of esophageal varix on CT was identified as the only significant predictive factor for early bleeding (p = 0.005).
    CONCLUSIONS: A larger esophageal varix diameter observed on CT is associated with an increased risk of early bleeding after EVL treatment. Early identification of this high-risk group can provide a change of treatment strategies to improve patient outcomes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    经颈静脉肝内门体分流术(TIPS)是高危急性静脉曲张破裂出血的首选治疗方法(AVB;即Child-Turcotte-Pugh[CTP]B8-9+活动性出血/C10-13)。然而,尽管联合使用非选择性β受体阻滞剂(NSBB)和内镜下静脉曲张结扎术(EVL)进行二级预防,但预后较差的“非高危”患者仍然存在。我们调查了非高风险AVB中再出血和死亡率的预后因素,以确定可能从更有效的治疗中受益的亚组(即,TIPS)以防止进一步的代偿失调和死亡。
    方法:在2011-2015年间,在34个中心前瞻性招募了2225名患有肝硬化和静脉曲张破裂出血的成年人;为了本研究的目的,低危患者在AVB指数和第5日的病例定义和预后指标信息得到进一步细化.最终纳入由NSBB/EVL管理的581名特征良好的无出血控制或TIPS禁忌症的低风险患者。患者随访一年。
    结果:总体而言,90例(15%)患者再次出血,70例(12%)患者在随访期间死亡。使用临床常规数据,没有发现有意义的再出血预测因子.然而,再出血(作为时间依赖性协变量)增加死亡率,即使考虑了患者特征的差异(调整后的病因特异性风险比:2.57[95CI:1.43-4.62];p=0.002).包括CTP的列线图,肌酐,和钠在基线测量准确(一致性:0.752)分层死亡风险。
    结论:大多数“非高危”AVB患者的预后良好,如果根据目前的建议进行治疗。然而,大约五分之一的病人,即,那些CTP≥8和/或高肌酐水平或低钠血症,在索引出血的1年内有相当大的死亡风险。未来的临床试验应调查选择性TIPS放置是否降低这些患者的死亡率。
    Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the treatment of choice for high-risk acute variceal bleeding (AVB; i.e., Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] B8-9+active bleeding/C10-13). Nevertheless, some \'non-high-risk\' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation for secondary prophylaxis. We investigated prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in \'non-high-risk\' AVB to identify subgroups who may benefit from more potent treatments (i.e., TIPS) to prevent further decompensation and mortality.
    A total of 2,225 adults with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding were prospectively recruited at 34 centres between 2011-2015; for the purpose of this study, case definitions and information on prognostic indicators at index AVB and on day 5 were further refined in low-risk patients, of whom 581 (without failure to control bleeding or contraindications to TIPS) who were managed by non-selective beta-blockers/endoscopic variceal ligation, were finally included. Patients were followed for 1 year.
    Overall, 90 patients (15%) re-bled and 70 (12%) patients died during follow-up. Using clinical routine data, no meaningful predictors of re-bleeding were identified. However, re-bleeding (included as a time-dependent co-variable) increased mortality, even after accounting for differences in patient characteristics (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio: 2.57; 95% CI 1.43-4.62; p = 0.002). A nomogram including CTP, creatinine, and sodium measured at baseline accurately (concordance: 0.752) stratified the risk of death.
    The majority of \'non-high-risk\' patients with AVB have an excellent prognosis, if treated according to current recommendations. However, about one-fifth of patients, i.e. those with CTP ≥8 and/or high creatinine levels or hyponatremia, have a considerable risk of death within 1 year of the index bleed. Future clinical trials should investigate whether elective TIPS placement reduces mortality in these patients.
    Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in high-risk acute variceal bleeding; nevertheless, some \'non-high-risk\' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation. This is the first large-scale study investigating prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in \'non-high-risk\' acute variceal bleeding. While no clinically meaningful predictors were identified for re-bleeding, we developed a nomogram integrating baseline Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, creatinine, and sodium to stratify mortality risk. Our study paves the way for future clinical trials evaluating whether elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in presumably \'non-high-risk\' patients who are identified as being at increased risk of death.
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