Early prediction

早期预测
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:确定炎症生物标志物是否是更多近视性屈光不正的危险因素。
    方法:瑞典北部人口健康研究(NSPHS),提供炎症生物标志物数据;英国生物银行,提供屈光不正数据。95,619名年龄在40至69岁之间的欧洲男性和女性,有屈光不正和炎症生物标记的可用信息。炎症生物标志物包括ADA,CCL23,CCL25,CD6,CD40,CDCP-1,CST5,CXCL-5,CXCL-6,CXCL-10,IL-10RB,IL-12B,IL-15RA,IL-18R1,MCP-2,MMP-1,TGF-β1,TNF-β,TWEAK和VEGF-A是暴露,使用公式SE=球体+(圆柱体/2)的球形当量(SE)是结果。
    结果:孟德尔随机化分析显示,VEGF-A每增加一个单位,CD6,MCP-2与0.040D/pg的近视屈光度有因果关系。mL-1(95%置信区间0.019~0.062;P=2.031×10-4),0.042d/pg。mL-1(0.027~0.057;P=7.361×10-8)和0.016D/pg。mL-1(0.004至0.028;P=0.009),TWEAK的每单位增加与近视屈光不正0.104D/pg有因果关系。mL-1(-0.152至-0.055;P=2.878×10-5)。由MR-Egger测试,加权中位数,MR-PRESSO,省略一次的方法,我们的结果对VEGF-A的水平多效性和异质性是稳健的,MCP-2,CD6,但不在TWEAK。
    结论:我们的孟德尔随机分析支持VEGF-A的因果效应,MCP-2、CD6和TWEAK对近视性屈光不正的影响。这些发现对于为近视的早期干预提供新的指标,使近视视力威胁的后果变得不那么不可避免是重要的。
    OBJECTIVE: To determine whether inflammatory biomarkers are causal risk factors for more myopic refractive errors.
    METHODS: Northern Sweden Population Health Study (NSPHS), providing inflammatory biomarkers data; UK Biobank, providing refractive errors data. 95,619 European men and women aged 40 to 69 years with available information of refractive errors and inflammatory biomakers. Inflammatory biomarkers including ADA, CCL23, CCL25, CD6, CD40, CDCP-1, CST5, CXCL-5, CXCL-6, CXCL-10, IL-10RB, IL-12B, IL-15RA, IL-18R1, MCP-2, MMP-1, TGF-β1, TNF-β, TWEAK and VEGF-A were exposures, and spherical equivalent (SE) using the formula SE = sphere + (cylinder/2) was outcome.
    RESULTS: Mendelian randomization analyses showed that each unit increase in VEGF-A, CD6, MCP-2 were causally related to a more myopic refractive errors of 0.040 D/pg.mL-1 (95% confidence interval 0.019 to 0.062; P = 2.031 × 10-4), 0.042 D/pg.mL-1 (0.027 to 0.057; P = 7.361 × 10-8) and 0.016 D/pg.mL-1 (0.004 to 0.028; P = 0.009), and each unit increase in TWEAK was causally related to a less myopic refractive errors of 0.104 D/pg.mL-1 (-0.152 to -0.055; P = 2.878 × 10-5). Tested by the MR-Egger, weighted median, MR-PRESSO, Leave-one-out methods, our results were robust to horizontal pleiotropy and heterogeneity in VEGF-A, MCP-2, CD6, but not in TWEAK.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our Mendelian Randomization analysis supported the causal effects of VEGF-A, MCP-2, CD6 and TWEAK on myopic refractive errors. These findings are important for providing new indicators for early intervention of myopia to make myopic eyesight threatening consequences less inevitable.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们的研究调查了外周血T细胞CD25,CD28和CTLA-4基因转录水平作为异基因造血干细胞移植(allo-HSCT)后急性移植物抗宿主病(aGVHD)的预测生物标志物的潜力。
    在接受allo-HSCT的患者移植后第+7、+14和+21天进行实时逆转录荧光定量PCR(RT-qPCR)分析。
    发现CD25和CTLA-4mRNA水平升高与aGVHD的发生有关,以及严重和胃肠道aGVHD。利用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析来评估每种生物标志物的预测值。CD25和CTLA-4mRNA水平的联合分析显示了aGVHD的有希望的预测潜力。
    我们的结果证实了CD25和CTLA-4基因的转录水平可用作aGVHD后allo-HSCT的早期预测性生物标志物。
    UNASSIGNED: Our study investigated the potential of peripheral blood T cell CD25, CD28, and CTLA-4 gene transcription levels as predictive biomarkers for acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT).
    UNASSIGNED: Real-time reverse transcription fluorescent quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) analysis was conducted on day +7, +14, and +21 post-transplantation in patients undergoing allo-HSCT.
    UNASSIGNED: Elevated levels of CD25 and CTLA-4 mRNA were found to be associated with the occurrence of aGVHD, as well as severe and gastrointestinal aGVHD. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was utilized to assess the predictive value of each biomarker. Combined analysis of CD25 and CTLA-4 mRNA levels demonstrated promising predictive potential for aGVHD.
    UNASSIGNED: Our results confirmed that the transcription levels of CD25 and CTLA-4 genes could be used as early predictive biomarkers for aGVHD post-allo-HSCT.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:妊娠早期胎盘循环因子的浓度通常极低,传统的预测方法不能满足临床对高危孕妇早期发现子痫前期的需求。寻求超敏感的早期预测方法至关重要。
    方法:在本研究中,有限差分时域(FDTD)和离散偶极子近似(DDA)仿真,和电子束光刻(EBL)方法用于开发具有最佳场增强和最大耦合效率的领结纳米天线(BNA)。探索了基于氨基偶联方法的胎盘循环因子(sFlt-1,PLGF)对贵金属纳米颗粒的生物修饰。构建了可以特异性识别子痫前期胎盘循环因子的BNALSPR生物传感器。
    结果:BNALSPR生物传感器可以检测血清胎盘循环因子,而无需毒性标记。先兆子痫组血清sFlt-1消光信号(Δλmax)高于正常妊娠组(14.37±2.56nmvs.4.21±1.36nm),p=0.008,而子痫前期组的血清PLGF消退信号低于正常妊娠组(5.36±3.15nmvs.11.47±4.92nm),p=0.013。LSPR生物传感器检测结果与ELISA试剂盒线性一致。
    结论:基于BNA的LSPR生物传感器可以高灵敏度地识别子痫前期的血清胎盘循环因子。无毒性标签,操作简单,有望成为先兆子痫的早期检测方法。
    OBJECTIVE: The concentration of the placental circulating factor in early pregnancy is often extremely low, and the traditional prediction method cannot meet the clinical demand for early detection preeclampsia in high-risk gravida. It is of prime importance to seek an ultra-sensitive early prediction method.
    METHODS: In this study, finite-different time-domain (FDTD) and Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) simulation, and electron beam lithography (EBL) methods were used to develop a bowtie nanoantenna (BNA) with the best field enhancement and maximum coupling efficiency. Bio-modification of the placental circulating factor (sFlt-1, PLGF) to the noble nanoparticles based on the amino coupling method were explored. A BNA LSPR biosensor which can specifically identify the placental circulating factor in preeclampsia was constructed.
    RESULTS: The BNA LSPR biosensor can detect serum placental circulating factors without toxic labeling. Serum sFlt-1 extinction signal (Δλmax) in the preeclampsia group was higher than that in the normal pregnancy group (14.37 ± 2.56 nm vs. 4.21 ± 1.36 nm), p = 0.008, while the serum PLGF extinction signal in the preeclampsia group was lower than that in the normal pregnancy group (5.36 ± 3.15 nm vs. 11.47 ± 4.92 nm), p = 0.013. The LSPR biosensor detection results were linearly consistent with the ELISA kit.
    CONCLUSIONS: LSPR biosensor based on BNA can identify the serum placental circulating factor of preeclampsia with high sensitivity, without toxic labeling and with simple operation, and it is expected to be an early detection method for preeclampsia.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:探讨早产儿脐血血管生成素-1(Ang-1)和S-endoglin(sCD105)水平与支气管肺发育不良(BPD)的关系。
    方法:纳入2021年7月至2022年9月在研究医院新生儿重症监护病房收治的61例早产儿。早产儿出生后收集脐带血。使用血管内皮生长因子酶联免疫吸附测定法定量Ang-1和sCD105水平。将早产儿分为BPD组和非BPD组。比较两组间Ang-1和sCD105水平的差异。使用二元逻辑模型来评估早产儿中低水平和高水平Ang-1与BPD之间的关联。
    结果:在研究中,其中BPD早产儿20例(32.8%),非BPD早产儿41例(67.2%).BPD组的Ang-1浓度水平低于非BPD组(7105.43(5617.01-8523.00)pg/mlvs.10488.03(7946.19-15962.77)pg/ml,P=0.027)。然而,BPD组和非BPD组的sCD105浓度水平无显著差异(P=0.246).计算的中值Ang-1浓度为8800.40μg/ml。Logistic回归分析显示,调整胎龄后,出生体重,和母体产前类固醇激素的应用,Ang-1浓度≤8800.40pg/ml的早产儿与Ang-1浓度>8800.40pg/ml的早产儿的BPD风险比值比(OR)为8.577(OR:8.577,95%置信区间:1.265~58.155,P=0.028).
    结论:我们的研究表明,早产儿脐带血中的Ang-1水平可能与BPD的风险相关。在未来,我们将继续进行大样本研究。
    BACKGROUND: To investigate the relationship between cord blood levels of Angiopoietin-1 (Ang-1) and S-endoglin (sCD105) and bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) in preterm infants.
    METHODS: Sixty-one preterm infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of the study hospital between July 2021 and September 2022 were included. Cord blood was collected after the birth of premature infants. Ang-1 and sCD105 levels were quantified using the vascular endothelial growth factor enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Preterm infants were divided into BPD and non-BPD groups, and differences in Ang-1 and sCD105 levels between the two groups were compared. A binary logistic model was used to assess the association between low and high levels Ang-1 and BPD in preterm infants.
    RESULTS: In the study, there were 20 preterm infants with BPD (32.8%) and 41 preterm infants with non-BPD (67.2%). Ang-1 concentration levels were lower in the BPD group than in the non-BPD group (7105.43 (5617.01-8523.00) pg/ml vs. 10488.03 (7946.19-15962.77) pg/ml, P = 0.027). However, the sCD105 concentration levels were not significantly different between the BPD and non-BPD groups (P = 0.246). A median Ang-1 concentration of 8800.40 pg/ml was calculated. Logistic regression analysis showed that after adjusting for gestational age, birth weight, and maternal prenatal steroid hormone application, the odds ratio (OR) was 8.577 for the risk of BPD in preterm infants with Ang-1 concentrations of ≤ 8800.40 pg/ml compared to those with Ang-1 concentrations of > 8800.40 pg/ml (OR: 8.577, 95% confidence interval: 1.265-58.155, P = 0.028).
    CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicated that Ang-1 levels in the cord blood of preterm infants may be associated the risk of BPD. In the future, we will continue to conduct study with large samples.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    妊娠期糖尿病(GDM)对母亲和婴儿构成重大健康风险。早期预测和有效管理对于改善结果至关重要。机器学习技术已经成为GDM预测的强大工具。这篇综述汇编和分析了现有的研究,以突出机器学习在GDM预测中应用的关键发现和趋势。对2000年至2023年9月发表的相关研究进行了全面搜索。基于对GDM预测的机器学习的关注,选择了14项研究。对这些研究进行了严格的分析,以确定共同的主题和趋势。审查揭示了几个关键主题。从所审查的研究中确定了能够预测妊娠早期GDM风险的模型。一些研究强调了为特定人群和人口群体定制预测模型的必要性。这些发现强调了针对不同人群的统一指南的局限性。此外,研究强调了将临床数据整合到GDM预测模型中的价值.这种整合改善了诊断患有GDM的个体的治疗和护理递送。虽然不同的机器学习模型显示出了希望,选择和称重变量仍然很复杂。审查的研究提供了对使用机器学习进行GDM预测的复杂性和潜在解决方案的宝贵见解。追求准确,早期预测模型,考虑不同的人口,临床资料,和新出现的数据来源强调了研究人员致力于改善有GDM风险的孕妇的医疗结果.
    Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) poses significant health risks to mothers and infants. Early prediction and effective management are crucial to improving outcomes. Machine learning techniques have emerged as powerful tools for GDM prediction. This review compiles and analyses the available studies to highlight key findings and trends in the application of machine learning for GDM prediction. A comprehensive search of relevant studies published between 2000 and September 2023 was conducted. Fourteen studies were selected based on their focus on machine learning for GDM prediction. These studies were subjected to rigorous analysis to identify common themes and trends. The review revealed several key themes. Models capable of predicting GDM risk during the early stages of pregnancy were identified from the studies reviewed. Several studies underscored the necessity of tailoring predictive models to specific populations and demographic groups. These findings highlighted the limitations of uniform guidelines for diverse populations. Moreover, studies emphasised the value of integrating clinical data into GDM prediction models. This integration improved the treatment and care delivery for individuals diagnosed with GDM. While different machine learning models showed promise, selecting and weighing variables remains complex. The reviewed studies offer valuable insights into the complexities and potential solutions in GDM prediction using machine learning. The pursuit of accurate, early prediction models, the consideration of diverse populations, clinical data, and emerging data sources underscore the commitment of researchers to improve healthcare outcomes for pregnant individuals at risk of GDM.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    乳腺炎是一种全球性的生产疾病,需要一个智能的解决方案来有效地解决。红外热成像(IRT)是一种非侵入性技术,可以纳入日常农场活动中,以监测动物的健康状况。在这项研究中,通过IRT和加州乳腺炎测试(CMT)对41只Murrah水牛的乳房健康状况进行了为期30天的常规监测.Further,体细胞计数(SCC),微生物鉴定,还估计了代表性样品的牛奶质量参数。将获得的热成像数据制成表格,并从第0天到第-10天反向传播,并从第0天到第10天向前传播。结果显示,在第0天,乳房皮肤表面温度(USST)和乳头皮肤表面温度(TSST)的平均值在亚临床乳腺炎(SCM)和临床乳腺炎(CM)影响到健康季度的季度中显示出差异(p<0.05),他们的差异程度最高。在SCM和CM病例中,在第-9天至第-5天至第0天期间发出感染迹象。从感染的第2天和第1天到第0天,温度急剧升高。有时候,一些季度显示温度的增加,由于乳腺炎在早晨时间,但通过晚上挤奶恢复由于动物的先天免疫系统。因此,乳房受到攻击的起始期对于通过使用IRT监测温度变化来进行SCM的早期评估至关重要。
    Mastitis is a global production disease that needs an intelligent solution to tackle effectively. Infrared Thermography (IRT) is a non-invasive technology that could be incorporated into routine day-to-day farm activities to monitor the health status of the animals. In this study, the udder health status was routinely monitored for 30 days among 41 Murrah buffaloes via IRT and the California Mastitis Test (CMT). Further, somatic cell count (SCC), microbial identification, and milk quality parameters were also estimated for representative samples. The thermal imaging data obtained was tabulated and back propagated from the 0th day to the -10th day and front propagated from the 0th day to +10th day for all the udder quarters. Results revealed that on the 0th day, the mean of udder skin surface temperature (USST) and teat skin surface temperature (TSST) showed a difference (p < 0.05) in the sub-clinical mastitis (SCM) and clinical mastitis (CM) affected quarters to the healthy quarters, and their degree of difference was the highest. The indication of infection was signaled during the -9th to -5th day to the 0th day in SCM and CM cases. There was a steep increment in the temperature from -2nd and -1st day to the 0th day of infection. Sometimes, some quarters show an increment in temperature due to mastitis during morning hours but recover by evening milking due to the animal\'s innate immune system. Thus, the initiation period in which the udder gets assaulted is crucial in the early assessment of SCM by monitoring temperature change using IRT.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    早期发现有加重倾向的高脂血症性急性胰腺炎(HLAP)对临床决策和改善预后至关重要。本研究的目的是建立早期预测HLAP严重程度的可靠模型。
    共纳入2012年6月至2023年6月福建医科大学附属协和医院收治的225例首发HLAP患者。将患者分为轻度急性胰腺炎(MAP)或中重度急性胰腺炎和重度急性胰腺炎(MSAPSAP)组。通过单变量分析和最小绝对收缩和选择算子回归确定了进展为MSAP或SAP的独立预测因子。通过多变量逻辑回归分析建立列线图来预测这种进展。校准,接收机工作特性(ROC),并采用临床决策曲线评估模型的一致性,分化,和临床适用性。收集2015年10月至2022年10月福建医科大学附属第一医院收治的93例首发HLAP患者的临床资料进行外部验证。
    白细胞计数,乳酸脱氢酶,白蛋白,血清肌酐,血清钙,D-二聚体被确定为HLAP患者进展为MSAP或SAP的独立预测因子,并用于建立预测列线图。内部验证的Harrell一致性指数(C指数)为0.908(95%CI0.867-0.948),外部验证的C指数为0.950(95%CI0.910-0.990)。校准,ROC,临床决策曲线显示该列线图具有良好的预测能力。
    我们建立了一个列线图,可以帮助识别早期可能发展为MSAP或SAP的HLAP患者,具有很高的辨别力和准确性。
    UNASSIGNED: Early detection of hyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis (HLAP) with exacerbation tendency is crucial for clinical decision-making and improving prognosis. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable model for the early prediction of HLAP severity.
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 225 patients with first-episode HLAP who were admitted to Fujian Medical University Union Hospital from June 2012 to June 2023 were included. Patients were divided into mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) or moderate-severe acute pancreatitis and severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP+SAP) groups. Independent predictors for progression to MSAP or SAP were identified through univariate analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. A nomogram was established through multivariate logistic regression analysis to predict this progression. The calibration, receiver operating characteristic(ROC), and clinical decision curves were employed to evaluate the model\'s consistency, differentiation, and clinical applicability. Clinical data of 93 patients with first-episode HLAP who were admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University from October 2015 to October 2022 were collected for external validation.
    UNASSIGNED: White blood cell count, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin, serum creatinine, serum calcium, D-Dimer were identified as independent predictors for progression to MSAP or SAP in patients with HLAP and used to establish a predictive nomogram. The internally verified Harrell consistency index (C-index) was 0.908 (95% CI 0.867-0.948) and the externally verified C-index was 0.950 (95% CI 0.910-0.990). The calibration, ROC, and clinical decision curves showed this nomogram\'s good predictive ability.
    UNASSIGNED: We have established a nomogram that can help identify HLAP patients who are likely to develop MSAP or SAP at an early stage, with high discrimination and accuracy.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    3型心肾综合征(CRS3型)引发急性肾损伤(AKI)引起的急性心脏损伤,增加AKI患者的死亡率。我们旨在确定CRS类型3的风险因素并开发预测列线图。
    在这项回顾性研究中,805名肾内科收治的AKI患者,山西医科大学第二医院于2017年1月1日至2021年12月31日,分为研究队列(2017.1.1-2021.6.30的406例患者,其中CRS3型63例)和验证队列(2021年7月1日至2021年12月31日的126例患者,其中CRS3型22例)。通过逻辑回归确定的CRS类型3的风险因素,为预测列线图的构建提供了信息。通过曲线下面积(AUC)评估其性能和准确性,校准曲线和决策曲线分析,通过验证队列进一步验证。
    列线图包括6个危险因素:年龄(OR=1.03;95CI=1.009-1.052;p=0.006),心血管疾病(CVD)病史(OR=2.802;95CI=1.193-6.582;p=0.018),平均动脉压(MAP)(OR=1.033;95CI=1.012-1.054;p=0.002),血红蛋白(OR=0.973;95CI=0.96--0.987;p<0.001),同型半胱氨酸(OR=1.05;95CI=1.03-1.069;p<0.001),AKI阶段[(阶段1:参考),(阶段2:OR=5.427;95CI=1.781-16.534;p=0.003),(阶段3:OR=5.554;95CI=2.234-13.805;p<0.001)]。列线图表现出优异的预测性能,在研究队列中AUC为0.907,在验证队列中AUC为0.892。校准和决策曲线分析维持了其准确性和临床实用性。
    我们开发了预测AKI患者CRS3型的列线图,纳入6个危险因素:年龄,CVD病史,MAP,血红蛋白,同型半胱氨酸,和AKI阶段,加强早期风险识别和患者管理。
    UNASSIGNED: Type 3 cardiorenal syndrome (CRS type 3) triggers acute cardiac injury from acute kidney injury (AKI), raising mortality in AKI patients. We aimed to identify risk factors for CRS type 3 and develop a predictive nomogram.
    UNASSIGNED: In this retrospective study, 805 AKI patients admitted at the Department of Nephrology, Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University from 1 January 2017, to 31 December 2021, were categorized into a study cohort (406 patients from 2017.1.1-2021.6.30, with 63 CRS type 3 cases) and a validation cohort (126 patients from 1 July 2021 to 31 Dec 2021, with 22 CRS type 3 cases). Risk factors for CRS type 3, identified by logistic regression, informed the construction of a predictive nomogram. Its performance and accuracy were evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis, with further validation through a validation cohort.
    UNASSIGNED: The nomogram included 6 risk factors: age (OR = 1.03; 95%CI = 1.009-1.052; p = 0.006), cardiovascular disease (CVD) history (OR = 2.802; 95%CI = 1.193-6.582; p = 0.018), mean artery pressure (MAP) (OR = 1.033; 95%CI = 1.012-1.054; p = 0.002), hemoglobin (OR = 0.973; 95%CI = 0.96--0.987; p < 0.001), homocysteine (OR = 1.05; 95%CI = 1.03-1.069; p < 0.001), AKI stage [(stage 1: reference), (stage 2: OR = 5.427; 95%CI = 1.781-16.534; p = 0.003), (stage 3: OR = 5.554; 95%CI = 2.234-13.805; p < 0.001)]. The nomogram exhibited excellent predictive performance with an AUC of 0.907 in the study cohort and 0.892 in the validation cohort. Calibration and decision curve analyses upheld its accuracy and clinical utility.
    UNASSIGNED: We developed a nomogram predicting CRS type 3 in AKI patients, incorporating 6 risk factors: age, CVD history, MAP, hemoglobin, homocysteine, and AKI stage, enhancing early risk identification and patient management.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    行为体重控制干预措施中早期体重减轻对长期成功的预测程度尚不清楚。在这项研究中,我们开发了一种算法,该算法旨在对体重变化轨迹进行分类,并根据体重早期变化检验了其预测长期体重下降的能力.我们利用了667名参与商业减肥计划(本能健康科学)的非身份个体的数据,包括69,363条体重记录。采用顺序多项式回归模型根据关键模型参数将参与者分类为不同的体重轨迹模式。接下来,我们应用多项logistic模型评估前14天的早期体重减轻和参与时间延长是否与长期体重减轻模式显著相关.在133±69天内,重量损失的平均百分比为7.9±5.1%。我们的分析揭示了四种主要的减肥轨迹模式:随着时间的推移稳步下降(30.6%),下降到平稳期,随后下降(15.8%),下降到高原,随后增加(46.9%),并无大幅下跌(6.7%)。早期体重变化率和总参与持续时间是区分长期体重减轻模式的重要因素。这些发现有助于支持在减肥行为干预的早期阶段提供量身定制的建议。
    The extent to which early weight loss in behavioral weight control interventions predicts long-term success remains unclear. In this study, we developed an algorithm aimed at classifying weight change trajectories and examined its ability to predict long-term weight loss based on weight early change. We utilized data from 667 de-identified individuals who participated in a commercial weight loss program (Instinct Health Science), comprising 69,363 weight records. Sequential polynomial regression models were employed to classify participants into distinct weight trajectory patterns based on key model parameters. Next, we applied multinomial logistic models to evaluate if early weight loss in the first 14 days and prolonged duration of participation were significantly associated with long-term weight loss patterns. The mean percentage of weight loss was 7.9 ± 5.1% over 133 ± 69 days. Our analysis revealed four main weight loss trajectory patterns: a steady decrease over time (30.6%), a decrease to a plateau with subsequent decline (15.8%), a decrease to a plateau with subsequent increase (46.9%), and no substantial decrease (6.7%). Early weight change rate and total participating duration emerged as significant factors in differentiating long-term weight loss patterns. These findings contribute to support the provision of tailored advice in the early phase of behavioral interventions for weight loss.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:建立并验证基于孕早期电子病历的妊娠期糖尿病(GDM)早期风险预测模型。
    方法:为了开发和验证GDM预测模型,本回顾性研究使用了两个数据集.其中包括来自荷兰马西玛医疗中心(MMC)的14015名孕妇的数据。另一个来自开源数据库nuMoM2b,其中包括10,038名未分娩孕妇的数据,收集在美国。广泛使用的孕产妇人口统计学和临床危险因素被考虑用于建模。从MMC数据的子集训练基于弹性净逻辑回归的GDM预测模型。对剩余的MMC数据进行内部验证以评估模型性能。对于外部验证,预测模型在nuMoM2b数据集的外部测试集上进行了测试。
    结果:在MMC测试数据上早期预测GDM的接收器工作特征曲线(AUC)下面积为0.81,与以前研究报告的性能相当。虽然在外部nuMoM2b测试数据上测试基于MMC的模型时,性能显着降低至AUC为0.69,接近仅在nuMoM2b数据集上训练和测试的性能(AUC=0.70)。
    OBJECTIVE: To build and validate an early risk prediction model for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) based on first-trimester electronic medical records including maternal demographic and clinical risk factors.
    METHODS: To develop and validate a GDM prediction model, two datasets were used in this retrospective study. One included data of 14,015 pregnant women from Máxima Medical Center (MMC) in the Netherlands. The other was from an open-source database nuMoM2b including data of 10,038 nulliparous pregnant women, collected in the USA. Widely used maternal demographic and clinical risk factors were considered for modeling. A GDM prediction model based on elastic net logistic regression was trained from a subset of the MMC data. Internal validation was performed on the remaining MMC data to evaluate the model performance. For external validation, the prediction model was tested on an external test set from the nuMoM2b dataset.
    RESULTS: An area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.81 was achieved for early prediction of GDM on the MMC test data, comparable to the performance reported in previous studies. While the performance markedly decreased to an AUC of 0.69 when testing the MMC-based model on the external nuMoM2b test data, close to the performance trained and tested on the nuMoM2b dataset only (AUC = 0.70).
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