PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The extent to which early weight loss in behavioral weight control interventions predicts long-term success remains unclear. In this study, we developed an algorithm aimed at classifying weight change trajectories and examined its ability to predict long-term weight loss based on weight early change. We utilized data from 667 de-identified individuals who participated in a commercial weight loss program (Instinct Health Science), comprising 69,363 weight records. Sequential polynomial regression models were employed to classify participants into distinct weight trajectory patterns based on key model parameters. Next, we applied multinomial logistic models to evaluate if early weight loss in the first 14 days and prolonged duration of participation were significantly associated with long-term weight loss patterns. The mean percentage of weight loss was 7.9 ± 5.1% over 133 ± 69 days. Our analysis revealed four main weight loss trajectory patterns: a steady decrease over time (30.6%), a decrease to a plateau with subsequent decline (15.8%), a decrease to a plateau with subsequent increase (46.9%), and no substantial decrease (6.7%). Early weight change rate and total participating duration emerged as significant factors in differentiating long-term weight loss patterns. These findings contribute to support the provision of tailored advice in the early phase of behavioral interventions for weight loss.
摘要：
行为体重控制干预措施中早期体重减轻对长期成功的预测程度尚不清楚。在这项研究中,我们开发了一种算法,该算法旨在对体重变化轨迹进行分类,并根据体重早期变化检验了其预测长期体重下降的能力.我们利用了667名参与商业减肥计划（本能健康科学）的非身份个体的数据，包括69,363条体重记录。采用顺序多项式回归模型根据关键模型参数将参与者分类为不同的体重轨迹模式。接下来,我们应用多项logistic模型评估前14天的早期体重减轻和参与时间延长是否与长期体重减轻模式显著相关.在133±69天内,重量损失的平均百分比为7.9±5.1%。我们的分析揭示了四种主要的减肥轨迹模式：随着时间的推移稳步下降(30.6%)，下降到平稳期，随后下降(15.8%)，下降到高原，随后增加(46.9%)，并无大幅下跌(6.7%)。早期体重变化率和总参与持续时间是区分长期体重减轻模式的重要因素。这些发现有助于支持在减肥行为干预的早期阶段提供量身定制的建议。
