Disease burden

疾病负担
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    对波兰中度至重度AD的当前疾病负担和日常临床管理的了解有限,捷克,俄罗斯,和Turkiye.因此,这项研究旨在获得有关中重度AD患者当前疾病负担和临床管理的信息驱动的见解,以及患者旅程的共同和区别方面,并建立共识。
    在此修改的2轮Delphi面板中,总共向27位皮肤科医生提出了133个问题。当70%的小组成员强烈同意或同意(或强烈不同意或不同意)某个项目时,就达成了共识。具有<40%一致性的陈述从Delphi回合中删除并且不再重复。
    结果表明,在这些国家,AD对患者及其家庭的生活质量都有重大影响,并产生社会和经济后果。虽然目前的治疗方法按偏好顺序和治疗持续时间在参与者之间存在显著差异,在文献和基于指南的声明上达成共识的比例也很高.小组成员发现目前的局部疗法和免疫应答调节剂不足以覆盖患有中度至重度AD的患者的治疗需求。此外,小组成员强调了目前可用的免疫抑制剂的超标签使用带来的重大不良事件负担.
    这些结果强调,波兰中度至重度AD患者存在严重的疾病负担,治疗需求未得到满足。捷克,俄罗斯,和Turkiye.
    UNASSIGNED: There is limited insight into the current disease burden and everyday clinical management of moderate-to- severe AD in Poland, Czechia, Russia, and Turkiye. Therefore, this study aimed to get information-driven insights regarding the current disease burden and clinical management of patients with moderate-to-severe AD with common and differentiating aspects of the patient journey and establish a consensus.
    UNASSIGNED: In this modified 2-round Delphi panel, 133 questions were asked in total to 27 dermatologists. A consensus was achieved when 70% of the panel members strongly agreed or agreed (or strongly disagreed or disagreed) with an item. Statements with <40% agreement dropped from the Delphi rounds and were not repeated.
    UNASSIGNED: The results state that AD has a significant impact on the quality of life for both patients and their families with social and economic consequences in these countries. While there were significant dissimilarities regarding the current treatment approach by preference order and treatment duration among participants, there was also a high percentage of consensus on literature and guideline-based statements. Current topical therapies and the immune response modifiers were not found to be sufficient by panelists to cover the therapeutic needs of patients with moderate-to-severe AD. Moreover, panelists highlighted the significant burden of adverse events with the off-label use of currently available immunosuppressants.
    UNASSIGNED: These results underlined that there is a significant disease burden with an unmet treatment need for patients with moderate-to-severe AD in Poland, Czechia, Russia, and Turkiye.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:公共卫生受到热浪的极大影响,尤其是气候变化的结果。目前尚不清楚热浪是否会影响受伤住院,特别是作为面临气候变化影响的发展中国家。
    目的:评估热浪对伤害相关住院和经济负担的影响。
    方法:收集2014-2019年中国11个气象地理区23个研究点的每日住院和气象资料。我们基于时间分层的案例交叉设计进行了两阶段时间序列分析,结合DLNM评估热浪与每日损伤住院之间的关系,并通过计算超额住院费用(直接经济损失)和人工损失(间接经济损失),进一步评估住院造成的地区和国家经济损失。确定弱势群体和地区,我们还按年龄进行了分层分析,性别,和区域。
    结果:我们发现6.542%(95CI:3.939%,9.008%)的伤害住院归因于2014-2019年温暖季节(5月至9月)的热浪。在中国,每年约有361,447人受伤住院归因于热浪,导致超额经济损失5.173(95CI:3.104,71.96)亿元人民币,其中男性3.114(95CI:1.454,47.2)亿元人民币,15-64岁人群4.785(95CI:3.203,6321)亿元人民币。由于热浪造成的伤害住院的归因分数(AF)在高原山区气候区最高,其次是亚热带季风气候区和温带季风气候区。
    结论:热浪显著增加伤害住院的疾病和经济负担,并且因人口和地区而异。我们的发现暗示了采取针对性措施的必要性,包括提高公众意识,改善医疗基础设施,制定气候复原政策,减少热浪对脆弱人群的威胁以及相关疾病和经济负担。
    BACKGROUND: Public health is greatly affected by heatwaves, especially as a result of climate change. It is unclear whether heatwaves affect injury hospitalization, especially as developing countries facing the impact of climate change.
    OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of heatwaves on injury-related hospitalization and the economic burden.
    METHODS: The daily hospitalizations and meteorological data from 2014 to 2019 were collected from 23 study sites in 11 meteorological geographic zones in China. We conducted a two-stage time series analysis based on a time-stratified case-crossover design, combined with DLNM to assess the association between heatwaves and daily injury hospitalization, and to further assess the regional and national economic losses resulting from hospitalization by calculating excess hospitalization costs (direct economic losses) and labor losses (indirect economic losses). To determine the vulnerable groups and areas, we also carried out stratified analyses by age, sex, and region.
    RESULTS: We found that 6.542% (95%CI: 3.939%, 9.008 %) of injury hospitalization were attributable to heatwaves during warm season (May to September) from 2014 to 2019. Approximately 361,447 injury hospitalizations were attributed to heatwaves each year in China, leading to an excess economic loss of 5.173 (95%CI: 3.104, 7.196) billion CNY, of which 3.114 (95%CI: 1.454, 4.720) billion CNY for males and 4.785 (95%CI: 3.203, 6.321) billion CNY for people aged 15-64 years. The attributable fraction (AF) of injury hospitalizations due to heatwaves was the highest in the plateau mountain climate zone, followed by the subtropical monsoon climate zone and the temperate monsoon climate zone.
    CONCLUSIONS: Heatwaves significantly increase the disease and economic burden of injury hospitalizations, and vary across populations and regions. Our findings implicate the necessity for targeted measures, including raising public awareness, improving healthcare infrastructure, and developing climate resilience policies, to reduce the threat of heatwaves to vulnerable populations and the associated disease and economic burden.
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    文章类型: Journal Article
    Vaccination programs have proven successful in the prevention and control of infectious diseases among children on a global scale, but the majority of adult populations remain unvaccinated. immunocompromised adults as well as older adults aged low-income countries as Streptococcus pneumoniae infections are associated with substantial morbidity and mortality among 65 years and above. Despite the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), the burden of vaccine-type serotypes remains high in there are no clear policies for adult vaccination. As per the Global Burden of Disease 2019 report, about 120,000 individuals aged 70 years and older died as a result of LRTIs) in sub-Saharan Africa. A medical advisory board meeting was conducted in April 2022 to discuss the burden of pneumococcal diseases in adults, the current status of policies and practices of adult vaccination, unmet needs, and challenges in Ghana. This expert opinion paper outlines the pneumococcal epidemiology and burden of disease in Ghana, as well as the rationale for adult pneumococcal vaccination. It also highlights the potential barriers to adult vaccination and offers recommendations to overcome these obstacles and enhance vaccine acceptance in Ghana.
    Les programmes de vaccination ont prouvé leur succès dans la prévention et le contrôle des maladies infectieuses chez les enfants à l\'échelle mondiale, mais la majorité des populations adultes restent non vaccinées. Les infections à Streptococcus pneumoniae sont associées à une morbidité et une mortalité substantielles chez les adultes immunodéprimés ainsi que chez les personnes âgées de 65 ans et plus. Malgré l\'introduction des vaccins conjugués contre le pneumocoque (VCP), la charge des sérotypes vaccinaux reste élevée dans les pays à faible revenu car il n\'existe pas de politiques claires en matière de vaccination des adultes. Selon le rapport sur la charge mondiale de morbidité de 2019, environ 120 000 personnes âgées de 70 ans et plus sont décédées des suites d\'infections des voies respiratoires inférieures (IVRI) en Afrique subsaharienne. Une réunion du conseil consultatif médical a eu lieu en avril 2022 pour discuter du fardeau des maladies pneumococciques chez les adultes, de l\'état actuel des politiques et pratiques de vaccination des adultes, des besoins non satisfaits et des défis au Ghana. Cet article d\'opinion d\'experts présente l\'épidémiologie pneumococcique et le fardeau de la maladie au Ghana, ainsi que les arguments en faveur de la vaccination pneumococcique des adultes. Il met également en lumière les obstacles potentiels à la vaccination des adultes et propose des recommandations pour surmonter ces obstacles et améliorer l\'acceptation des vaccins au Ghana. MOTS-CLÉS: Maladie pneumococcique, Fardeau de la maladie, Vaccin conjugué contre le pneumocoque, Vaccination des adultes, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Ghana, Défis de la vaccination, Immunisation des adultes, VCP-13, Pneumonie acquise en communauté.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    罕见的儿科眼病(RPEDs)威胁视力和生命。最近,罕见疾病被公认为全球公共卫生议程,将儿童列为世界卫生组织2020年愿景中的优先事项,以防止可避免的视力丧失。
    我们通过查询在线数据库(PubMed,Embase和Cochrane图书馆)。与RPED相关的文章是根据2位作者的相关性选择的,第三作者裁定的任何分歧。
    我们综合了关于RPED的当前知识状态,阻碍他们的照顾,以及对未来的建议。RPED通常会导致明显的视力丧失,深刻影响儿童理解和参与世界的方式。这些疾病也可能降低预期寿命,甚至危及生命。治疗RPEDs的障碍包括“罕见疾病”的定义不明确,漏诊或延误诊断,管理知识和专业知识不足,具有挑战性的研究环境。
    我们的发现提供了有关RPEDs诊断和管理的最新信息,这与眼科医生有关,儿科医生,医疗政策制定者和社会工作者。我们为这些疾病提出扶持政策和充足的资源分配,全面和以患者为中心的护理,除了改善教育和培训,加强研究能力和跨机构的持续合作。
    UNASSIGNED: Rare paediatric eye diseases (RPEDs) threaten both vision and life. Recently, rare diseases were recognised as a global public health agenda, with children specified as a priority in the World Health Organization\'s VISION 2020 against avoidable visual loss.
    UNASSIGNED: We conducted a review through a query of online databases (PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library). Articles related to RPEDs were selected based on relevance by 2 authors, with any disagreements adjudicated by the third author.
    UNASSIGNED: We synthesise the current state of knowledge regarding RPEDs, barriers to their care, and recommendations for the future. RPEDs often result in significant visual loss, profoundly impacting the way children comprehend and participate in the world. These diseases may also reduce life expectancy and even be life-threatening. Barriers to the care of RPEDs include an unclear definition of \"rare diseases\", missed or delayed diagnosis, inadequate knowledge and expertise in management, and challenging research environments.
    UNASSIGNED: Our findings provide an update on the diagnosis and management of RPEDs, which is of relevance to ophthalmologists, paediatricians, healthcare policymakers and social workers. We propose supportive policies and adequate resource allocation to these diseases, comprehensive and patient-centred care, alongside improved education and training, enhanced research capabilities and continued collaboration across institutions.
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  • 文章类型: English Abstract
    Pruritus is defined as a symptom that leads to scratching. Clinically, a heterogeneous group of clinical pictures of different etiology must be considered. Pruritus is characterized by varying intensity and duration. Many patients and/or their social environment, which is influenced by this, cite the impact on sleep quality as an accompanying main symptom. The patient\'s quality of life is affected depending on the severity of the pruritus and often leads to comorbidity such as depressive disorders or sleep disorders as well as to an impact on psychosocial well-being if it becomes chronic. To date, in addition to the medical history, the established examination methods have been the determination of the disease burden by assessing disease activity, e.g., with validated disease-specific scores, plus the assessment of quality of life using a dermatological quality of life index (DLQI). The latest studies show that this is by no means sufficient to determine the severity of disease and, as a result, to identify adequate treatment options.
    UNASSIGNED: Pruritus ist definiert als ein Symptom, das zum Kratzen führt. Klinisch ist eine heterogene Gruppe von Krankheitsbildern unterschiedlicher Ätiologie zu berücksichtigen. Pruritus ist durch unterschiedliche Intensität und Dauer charakterisiert. Die Beeinflussung der Schlafqualität wird von vielen Patienten und/oder ihrem sozialen Umfeld, das dadurch mitbeeinflusst ist, als ein begleitendes Hauptsymptom angeführt. Die Lebensqualität der Patienten ist je nach Schweregrad des Pruritus beeinflusst und führt nicht selten bei Chronifizierung zu Komorbidität wie depressive Störungen oder Schlafstörungen sowie zur Beeinflussung des psychosozialen Wohlbefindens. Bislang sind neben der Anamnese die Ermittlung der Krankheitslast durch Erhebung der Krankheitsaktivität z. B. mit validierten krankheitsspezifischen Scores plus die Erfassung der Lebensqualität durch einen dermatologischen Lebensqualitätsindex (Dermatology Life Quality Index [DLQI]) die etablierten Untersuchungsmethoden. Neueste Untersuchungen zeigen, dass dies keinesfalls ausreicht, um die Erkrankungsschwere zu eruieren und daraus resultierend adäquate Therapieoptionen zu ermitteln.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    长期暴露于室内挥发性有机化合物(VOCs)可导致多种不良反应,包括癌症。我们审查了2010年至2023年期间发布的欧盟(EU)成员国办公室以及住宅和教育建筑中挥发性有机化合物水平的报告。我们使用这些数据来评估人口健康的风险,通过估计终身暴露于室内VOC和由此产生的非癌症和癌症风险,由此,可归因于VOC暴露和相关经济损失的癌症负担。我们的系统审查确定了1783篇文章,其中184项进行了详细检查,58个产生相关数据。在分别合并欧盟国家和建筑类型的VOC浓度数据后,我们使用概率蒙特卡罗模拟以风险商和终生超额癌症风险(LECR)评估了非癌症和癌症风险.LECR用于估计VOC相关癌症的残疾调整寿命年(DALYs)和相关成本。我们发现,在法国和德国,与甲醛接触相关的LECR高于可接受的风险水平(ARL),而在西班牙女性中,与苯接触的LECR也高于ARL。暴露于乙醛的DALYs和相关成本之和/1,000,000人口/年,苯,甲醛,四氯乙烯,和三氯乙烯分别为4.02和41,010欧元,在法国,那些暴露于乙醛的人,苯,四氯化碳,甲醛,三氯乙烯在德国分别为3.91和39,590欧元,在西班牙,暴露于苯的比例为0.1和1030欧元。作为一个整体,这些发现表明,室内暴露于VOCs仍然是欧盟的公共卫生问题。尽管欧盟对某些挥发性有机化合物设定了限制,需要采取进一步措施限制这些化学品在消费品中的使用。
    Chronic exposure to indoor volatile organic compounds (VOCs) can result in several adverse effects including cancers. We review reports of levels of VOCs in offices and in residential and educational buildings in the member states of the European Union (EU) published between 2010 and 2023. We use these data to assess the risk to population health by estimating lifetime exposure to indoor VOCs and resulting non-cancer and cancer risks and, from that, the burden of cancer attributable to VOC exposure and associated economic losses. Our systematic review identified 1783 articles, of which 184 were examined in detail, with 58 yielding relevant data. After combining data on VOC concentrations separately for EU countries and building types, non-cancer and cancer risks were assessed in terms of hazard quotient and lifetime excess cancer risk (LECR) using probabilistic Monte Carlo Simulations. The LECR was used to estimate disability adjusted life years (DALYs) from VOC-related cancers and associated costs. We find that the LECR associated with formaldehyde exposure was above the acceptable risk level (ARL) in France and Germany and that of from exposure to benzene was also above the ARL in Spanish females. The sum of DALYs and related costs/1,000,000 population/year from exposure to acetaldehyde, benzene, formaldehyde, tetrachloroethylene, and trichloroethylene were 4.02 and €41,010, respectively, in France, those from exposure to acetaldehyde, benzene, carbon tetrachloride, formaldehyde, and trichloroethylene were 3.91 and €39,590 in Germany, and those from exposure to benzene were 0.1 and €1030 in Spain. Taken as a whole, these findings show that indoor exposure to VOCs remains a public health concern in the EU. Although the EU has set limits for certain VOCs, further measures are needed to restrict the use of these chemicals in consumer products.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:有限的研究评估了全球负担,趋势,以及青少年和年轻人尿路感染(UTI)的跨国不平等(AYAs)。
    方法:年龄标准化发生率(ASR)(ASIR),死亡率(ASMR)和残疾调整寿命年(DALYs)(ASDR)用于描述UTI负担.计算了估计的年度百分比变化(EAPC),以评估1990年至2019年的时间趋势。利用不平等的斜率指数和集中指数来量化UTI负担中的分布不平等。
    结果:从1990年到2019年,ASIR显着增加(EAPC=0.22%,95%CI0.19%至0.26%)在AYAs中发现尿路感染,男性的增长趋势比女性更明显。女性UTI的ASMR和ASDR显着下降,而男性则没有。不平等的斜率指数从1990年的21.80DALYs/10万变化到2019年的20.91DALYs/10万。此外,AYAsUTI的集中度指数在1990年为-0.23,2019年为-0.14。
    结论:社会人口发展水平较低的国家承担了不成比例的更高的尿路感染负担,应成为加强其国家计划的目标。
    结论:UTI仍然是全球AYAs的持续健康负担,在不同国家发现了巨大的异质性,性别,和年龄组。
    BACKGROUND: Limited studies have evaluated the global burden, trends, and cross-country inequalities for urinary tract infections (UTIs) in adolescents and young adults (AYAs).
    METHODS: Age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASMR) and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) (ASDR) were used to describe the UTI burden. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to evaluate the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. The slope index of inequality and concentration index were utilized to quantify the distributive inequalities in the burden of UTIs.
    RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, a significant increase in ASIR (EAPC=0.22%, 95% CI 0.19% to 0.26%) was found for UTIs in AYAs, and the increasing trend was more pronounced in males than females. Significant decreases in ASMR and ASDR were found for UTIs in females but not in males. The slope index of inequality changed from 21.80 DALYs per 100,000 in 1990 to 20.91 DALYs per 100,000 in 2019 for UTIs in AYAs. Moreover, the concentration index showed -0.23 in 1990 and -0.14 in 2019 for UTIs in AYAs.
    CONCLUSIONS: Countries with lower sociodemographic development levels shouldered a disproportionately higher burden of UTIs and should be targeted for strengthening their national programmes.
    CONCLUSIONS: UTIs remain an ongoing health burden for AYAs globally, with a substantial heterogeneity found across countries, sex, and age groups.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目前尚不清楚直接抗病毒药物(DAA)治疗是否能改善丙型肝炎病毒(HCV)感染的疾病负担。本研究旨在使用个体参与者数据调查DAA治疗对降低HCV感染患者疾病负担的影响。
    这项全国性的多中心回顾性队列研究招募了来自韩国29个大专院校的HCV感染患者。数据收集是从每个机构的医疗记录中进行的。该研究包括未经治疗的患者和DAA治疗的患者,并排除了那些有干扰素治疗史的患者。疾病负担是主要结果,以残疾调整寿命年(DALYs)表示。使用APRI评估DAA治疗后纤维化的改善,FIB-4指数,和通过瞬时弹性成像评估的肝脏硬度(LS)。临床结果为肝细胞癌(HCC),代偿失调,和死亡率。
    2007年1月1日至2022年2月17日,来自11,725名HCV感染患者的数据,8464人(72%)接受了DAAs治疗,进行了分析。DAA治疗显着改善APRI-(中位数0.64[四分位数间距(IQR),0.35-1.31]-0.33[0.23-0.52],p<0.0001),FIB-4-(中位数2.42[IQR,1.48-4.40]-1.93[1.31-2.97],p<0.0001),和肝脏LS基纤维化(中位数7.4[IQR,5.3-12.3]-6.2[4.6-10.2]kPa,p<0.0001)。在27.5个月的中位随访期内(IQR,10.6-52.4),469例患者死亡(4.0%),586(5.0%)发展为HCC,580人(4.9%)出现代偿失调。DAA组基于APRI的DALY估计值显着低于未治疗组(中位数4.55vs.5.14年,p<0.0001),基于FIB-4的DALY估计也是如此(中位数5.43[IQR,3.00-6.44]vs.5.79[3.85-8.07]年,p<0.0001)。在40-60岁的患者中,未治疗组和DAA组之间的差异最大。在多变量分析中,DAA组肝癌的风险显著降低,代偿失调,和死亡率与未治疗组相比(风险比:0.41[95%置信区间(CI),0.34-0.48],0.31[95%CI,0.30-0.38],和0.22[95%CI,0.17-0.27],分别为;p<0.0001)。
    我们的研究结果表明,DAA治疗与HCV感染患者肝脏相关结局的改善和肝纤维化疾病负担的减少有关。然而,需要使用肝活检进行进一步的研究,以阐明DAA治疗对降低基于纤维化的疾病负担的确切影响,而不是非侵入性试验.
    韩国疾病控制和预防机构。
    UNASSIGNED: It is unclear whether direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) treatment improves the disease burden in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. This study aimed to investigate the effect of DAA treatment on the reduction of disease burden in patients with HCV infection using individual participant data.
    UNASSIGNED: This nationwide multicentre retrospective cohort study recruited patients with HCV infection from 29 tertiary institutions in South Korea. The data collection was done from medical records in each institution. The study included the untreated patients and the DAAs-treated patients and excluded those with a history of interferon-based treatments. Disease burden was the primary outcome, as represented by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Improvement in fibrosis after DAA treatment was assessed using APRI, FIB-4 index, and liver stiffness (LS) as assessed by transient elastography. Clinical outcomes were hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), decompensation, and mortality.
    UNASSIGNED: Between January 1, 2007, and February 17, 2022, data from 11,725 patients with HCV infection, 8464 (72%) of whom were treated with DAAs, were analysed. DAA treatment significantly improved APRI- (median 0.64 [interquartile range (IQR), 0.35-1.31]-0.33 [0.23-0.52], p < 0.0001), FIB-4- (median 2.42 [IQR, 1.48-4.40]-1.93 [1.31-2.97], p < 0.0001), and liver LS-based fibrosis (median 7.4 [IQR, 5.3-12.3]-6.2 [4.6-10.2] kPa, p < 0.0001). During the median follow-up period of 27.5 months (IQR, 10.6-52.4), 469 patients died (4.0%), 586 (5.0%) developed HCC, and 580 (4.9%) developed decompensation. The APRI-based DALY estimate was significantly lower in the DAA group than in the untreated group (median 4.55 vs. 5.14 years, p < 0.0001), as was the FIB-4-based DALY estimate (median 5.43 [IQR, 3.00-6.44] vs. 5.79 [3.85-8.07] years, p < 0.0001). The differences between the untreated and DAA groups were greatest in patients aged 40-60 years. In multivariable analyses, the DAA group had a significantly reduced risk of HCC, decompensation, and mortality compared with the untreated group (hazard ratios: 0.41 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.34-0.48], 0.31 [95% CI, 0.30-0.38], and 0.22 [95% CI, 0.17-0.27], respectively; p < 0.0001).
    UNASSIGNED: Our findings suggest that DAA treatment is associated with the improvement of liver-related outcomes and a reduction of liver fibrosis-based disease burden in patients with HCV infection. However, further studies using liver biopsy are needed to clarify the effect of DAA treatment on the reduction in the exact fibrosis-based disease burden beyond noninvasive tests.
    UNASSIGNED: The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:本研究旨在更新恒牙中未经治疗的龋齿的相关流行病学信息。
    方法:数据来自2019年全球疾病负担(GBD)研究。我们描述了1990年至2019年按性别和地区划分的恒牙未治疗龋齿年龄标准化患病率(ASPR)的时间趋势。使用年龄周期队列(APC)模型分析年龄,时期和队列对患病率的影响,我们使用贝叶斯年龄周期队列(BAPC)模型对2020年至2049年的患病率进行了预测。
    结果:从1990年到2019年,全球恒牙未治疗龋齿的ASPR呈下降趋势(26593.58/105vs.25625.53/105),女性每年超过男性。在ASPR和社会人口指数(SDI)水平之间观察到负相关。APC分析显示,全球净漂移为-0.16%,在所有SDI区域中通常低于0。全球患病率的总体峰值出现在20-24岁组(36319.99/105),总体全球期间比率(RR)呈下降趋势。与年轻的出生队列相比,先前出生队列在全球和所有SDI地区的患病率风险较高.从2020年到2049年,两种性别的恒牙未经治疗的龋齿的全球ASPR都有显着的上升趋势。
    结论:研究期间,年龄-队列效应对恒牙中未经治疗的龋齿的患病率有显著影响。
    结论:根据预测,恒牙中未经治疗的龋齿的ASPR可能在未来30年内增加。而恒牙中未经治疗的龋齿的疾病负担可能受到人口老龄化的影响。必须对弱势群体实施有针对性的预防和控制政策,并努力减少龋齿不平等。
    OBJECTIVE: This study aims to update the relevant epidemiological information of untreated caries in permanent teeth.
    METHODS: Data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. We described temporal trends in age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of untreated caries in permanent teeth by gender and region from 1990 to 2019. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was utilized to analyze age, period and cohort effects on prevalence, and we used the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to make projections of prevalence between 2020 and 2049.
    RESULTS: The global ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth presented a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019 (26593.58/105 vs. 25625.53/105), with females exceeding males annually. Negative correlation was observed between ASPR and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels. APC analyses showed that net drift was -0.16 % globally and generally below 0 across all SDI regions. The overall global peak in prevalence occurred in the 20-24 years group (36319.99/105), and there was a decrease trend in the overall global period rate ratio (RR). Compared to younger birth cohorts, prior birth cohorts had higher prevalence risks globally and across all SDI regions. Significant upward trends was predicted in the global ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth for both genders from 2020 to 2049.
    CONCLUSIONS: Age-period-cohort effects exerted a significant impact on the prevalence of untreated caries in permanent teeth during the study period.
    CONCLUSIONS: The ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth may increase in the next 30 years by projections. And the disease burden of untreated caries in permanent teeth may be affected by population ageing. It is essential to implement targeted prevention and control policies to disadvantaged groups and attempt to reduce caries inequalities.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:使用2019年全球疾病负担(GBD)研究的数据来报告全球,区域和国家死亡率和趋势,患病率,青少年和年轻人鼻咽癌(NPC)的残疾调整寿命年(DALYs)(AYAs)。
    方法:使用来自GBD2019的数据来分析死亡发生率,全球NPC的患病率和DALY,区域,和国家层面。采用Joinpoint回归分析计算年平均百分比变化(AAPC)。发病率之间的关联,使用GBD社会人口统计学指数(SDI)分析患病率、DALYs和社会经济发展。最后,预测一直到2030年,并在Nordpred中计算。
    结果:发病率,患病率,NPC导致的死亡率和DALYs率(95%UI)0.96(0.85-1.09,6.31(5.54-7.20),0.20(0.19-0.22),和2019年12.23(11.27-13.29)分别。从1990年到2019年,发病率和患病率分别增加了1.79(95%CI1.03至2.55)和2.97(95%CI2.13至3.82),而死亡率和DALY率分别下降了1.64(95CI1.78至1.49)和1.6(95CI1.75至1.4)。南亚的死亡率和DALY率,东亚,北非和中东的SDI下降。东亚的发病率和患病率随SDI的增加而增加。在国家一级,中国的发病率和患病率很高,台湾(中国),新加坡,马来西亚,布鲁内尔·达鲁萨兰国,阿尔及利亚,突尼斯,利比亚和马耳他。同时,马来西亚的死亡率和DALY仍然很高,布鲁内尔·达鲁萨兰国,格陵兰岛和台湾(中国省)。洪都拉斯的死亡率和DALY率很低,芬兰和挪威。从2020年到2030年,大多数地区的ASIR、ASPR和ASDR预测稳定,但DALY往往会下降。
    结论:AYAs中的NPC是一个重要的全球性公共问题。发病率,患病率,和DALY费率因地区和国家而异。因此,应针对不同地区和国家,有针对性地改善鼻咽癌的疾病负担。
    OBJECTIVE: To use data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to report the global, regional and national rates and trends of deaths incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for Nasopharynx cancer (NPC) in adolescents and young adults (AYAs).
    METHODS: Data from the GBD 2019 were used to analyze deaths incidence, prevalence and DALYs due to NPC at global, regional, and national levels. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the average annual percentage changes (AAPC). The association between incidence, prevalence and DALYs and socioeconomic development was analyzed using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Finally, projections were made until 2030 and calculated in Nordpred.
    RESULTS: The incidence, prevalence, death and DALYs rates (95%UI) due to NPC 0.96 (0.85-1.09, 6.31 (5.54-7.20),0.20 (0.19-0.22), and 12.23(11.27-13.29) in 2019, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence and prevalence rates increased by 1.79 (95% CI 1.03 to 2.55) and 2.97(95% CI 2.13 to 3.82) respectively while the deaths and DALYs rates declined by 1.64(95%CI 1.78 to 1.49) and 1.6(95%CI 1.75 to 1.4) respectively. Deaths and DALYs rates in South Asia, East Asia, North Africa and Middle East decreased with SDI. Incidence and prevalence rates in East Asia increased with SDI. At the national level, the incidence and prevalence rates are high in China, Taiwan(China), Singapore, Malaysia, Brunel Darussalam, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Malta. Meanwhile, the deaths and DALYs rates are still high in Malaysia, Brunel Darussalam, Greenland and Taiwan(Province of China). The deaths and DALYs rates are low in Honduras, Finland and Norway. From the 2020 to 2030, ASIR、ASPR and ASDR in most regions are predicted to stable, but DALYs tends to decline.
    CONCLUSIONS: NPC in AYAs is a significant global public problem. The incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates vary widely by region and country. Therefore different regions and countries should be targeted to improve the disease burden of NPC.
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