背景:化学污染和污染是对人类健康和环境的持续威胁。全球范围内对化学品暴露后果的关注继续增加。因为资源有限,有必要优先考虑对健康影响最大的干预措施。数据,特别是与化学接触有关的,很少可用于大多数关注的物质,和替代方法来评估它们的影响是必要的。
■结构化的专家判断(研究外展,2021)进行了过程,以提供对16种常见污染物的健康影响的合理估计:石棉,砷,苯,铬,镉,二恶英,氟化物,高度危险的农药(HHP),铅,水银,多环芳烃(PAHs),多氯联苯(PCBs),全氟化和多氟化物质(PFAs),邻苯二甲酸酯,内分泌干扰化学物质(EDCs),和溴化阻燃剂(BRFs)。这个过程,由部门专家承担,使用专家意见的统计准确性和信息量的客观估计,对每种污染物的可能的全球健康规模健康影响进行了加权。
结果:最重要的物质,就平均预计年总死亡人数而言,是铅,石棉,砷,和HHP。铅远远超过其他人,估计每年死亡的中位数为170万。其他三种物质平均每年有136,000至274,000人死亡。在评估的其他12种化学品中,估计每年的死亡人数都没有超过10万人。这些发现强调了优先考虑现有资源以减少和补救这些关键污染物的影响的重要性。
■根据现有证据,专家总结了一些更臭名昭著的化学污染物,如多氯联苯和二恶英,从全球范围来看,不会对人类健康造成严重影响。然而,近几十年来释放的一些化合物的化学毒性,如内分泌干扰物和PFAs,不能忽视,即使目前的影响是有限的。此外,在某些地理区域,某些化学品的影响可能不成比例。持续的研究和监测至关重要;需要对化学品采取预防性方法。
结论:这些结果,以及其他化学品的潜在类似分析,作为正在进行的关于确定全球化学品和污染管理优先事项的讨论的投入。此外,我们建议在获得新信息时定期重复此SEJ过程。
BACKGROUND: Chemical contamination and pollution are an ongoing threat to human health and the environment. The concern over the consequences of chemical exposures at the global level continues to grow. Because resources are constrained, there is a need to prioritize interventions focused on the greatest health impact. Data, especially related to chemical exposures, are rarely available for most substances of concern, and alternate methods to evaluate their impact are needed.
UNASSIGNED: A Structured Expert Judgment (Research Outreach, 2021) process was performed to provide plausible estimates of health impacts for 16 commonly found pollutants: asbestos, arsenic, benzene, chromium, cadmium,
dioxins, fluoride, highly hazardous pesticides (HHPs), lead, mercury, polycyclic-aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), Per- and Polyfluorinated Substances (PFAs), phthalates, endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs), and brominated flame retardants (BRFs). This process, undertaken by sector experts, weighed individual estimations of the probable global health scale health impacts of each pollutant using objective estimates of the expert opinions\' statistical accuracy and informativeness.
RESULTS: The foremost substances, in terms of mean projected annual total deaths, were lead, asbestos, arsenic, and HHPs. Lead surpasses the others by a large margin, with an estimated median value of 1.7 million deaths annually. The three other substances averaged between 136,000 and 274,000 deaths per year. Of the 12 other chemicals evaluated, none reached an estimated annual death count exceeding 100,000. These findings underscore the importance of prioritizing available resources on reducing and remediating the impacts of these key pollutants.
UNASSIGNED: Based on the evidence available, experts concluded some of the more notorious chemical pollutants, such as PCBs and dioxin, do not result in high levels of human health impact from a global scale perspective. However, the chemical toxicity of some compounds released in recent decades, such as Endocrine Disrupters and PFAs, cannot be ignored, even if current impacts are limited. Moreover, the impact of some chemicals may be disproportionately large in some geographic areas. Continued research and monitoring are essential; and a preventative approach is needed for chemicals.
CONCLUSIONS: These results, and potential similar analyses of other chemicals, are provided as inputs to ongoing discussions about priority setting for global chemicals and pollution management. Furthermore, we suggest that this SEJ process be repeated periodically as new information becomes available.