全球气候变化显著影响了中高纬度森林的结构和分布。在中国东北的森林地区,气候变暖的幅度超过了全球平均水平,这对优势树种的生存和栖息地可持续性提出了巨大挑战。我们预测了地上生物量的潜在变化,优势树种组成,以及下个世纪在不同气候条件下东北森林地区的分布,包括当前情景和未来情景(RCP2.6,RCP4.5和RCP8.5)。森林生态系统过程模型LINKAGES3.0用于模拟在同质土地类型单元水平上的四种气候情景下物种水平地上生物量的动态变化。基于三个指标调查了树种的潜在空间分布:灭绝,殖民,和坚持。结果表明,LINKAGES3.0模型有效地模拟了东北林区17种优势树种的地上生物量,实现R²=0.88的高精度。在当前,RCP2.6和RCP4.5气候情景,优势树种呈现地上生物量逐渐增加,而在RCP8.5下,观察到最初的增加和随后的下降.随着变暖幅度的增加,冷温带针叶树种将逐渐被其他温带阔叶树种取代。此外,在RCP8.5下的大幅温度升高可能会在落叶松等树种的潜在分布范围内产生明显的收缩,苏格兰松树,罗纹桦木,云杉和冷杉,而大多数温带阔叶树种和红松预计将向北迁移。这些发现为增强中高纬度地区森林生态系统的适应性和复原力以及应对气候变暖带来的威胁提供了指导。
Global climate change has markedly influenced the structure and distribution of mid-high-latitude forests. In the forest region of Northeast China, the magnitude of climate warming surpasses the global average, which presents immense challenges to the survival and habitat sustainability of dominant tree species. We predicted the potential changes in aboveground biomass, dominant tree species composition, and distribution in the forest region of Northeast China over the next century under different climatic conditions encompassing the current scenario and future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Forest ecosystem process model LINKAGES 3.0 was used to simulate dynamic changes in species-level aboveground biomass under four climate scenarios at the homogeneous land-type unit level. The potential spatial distribution of tree species was investigated based on three indicators: extinction, colonization, and persistence. The results showed that LINKAGES 3.0 model effectively simulated the aboveground biomass of 17 dominant tree species in the forest region of Northeast China, achieving a high accuracy with R² = 0.88. Under the current, RCP2.6, and RCP4.5 climate scenarios, the dominant tree species presented gradual increases in aboveground biomass, whereas under RCP8.5, an initial increase and subsequent decline were observed. With increasing warming magnitude, cold-temperate coniferous tree species will gradually be replaced by other temperate broad-leaved tree species. Furthermore, a large temperature increase under RCP8.5 will likely produce a significant contraction in the potential distribution range of tree species like Larch, Scotch pine, Ribbed birch, Spruce and Fir, while most temperate broad-leaved tree species and Korean pine are expected to demonstrate a northward migration. These findings provide guidance for enhancing the adaptability and resilience of forest ecosystems in middle and high latitudes and addressing the threats posed by climate warming.