OBJECTIVE: To assess cigarette demand among Chinese smokers through a cigarette purchase task (CPT) and to evaluate cigarette prices under different hypothetical scenarios in order to meet the goals of smoking prevalence reduction in China.
METHODS: In the study, 447 participants completed a hypothetical CPT at baseline assessments of a trial, thus, cigarette demand curves were individually fitted for each participant using an exponentiated version of the exponential demand model. Typically, five demand indices were derived, intensity (consumption when free), breakpoint (first price at which consumption is suppressed to 0), maximum output (Omax), maximum price (Pmax, price at which Omax occurred), and elasticity (the ratio of the change in quantity demanded to the change in price). A one-way analysis of variance was used to explore the correlations between the cigarette purchase task indices and socio-demographic and smoking characteristics. The one-way decay model was employed to simulate the smoking cessation rates and determine optimal cigarette prices in a series of scenarios for achieving 20% smoking prevalence.
RESULTS: The price elasticity drawn from CPT was 0.54, indicating that a 10% price increase could reduce smoking by 5.4% in the participated smokers. Smokers with higher income were less sensitive to cigarette prices (elasticity=-2.31, P=0.028). Cigarette purchase task indices varied significantly among the smokers with different prices of commonly used cigarettes, tobacco dependence, and smoking volume. The smokers who consumed cigarettes of higher prices reported higher breakpoint, Omax and Pmax, but lower intensity (P=0.001). The smokers who were moderately or highly nicotine dependent reported higher intensity, breakpoint, Omax and Pmax, and they had lower intensity (P=0.001). The smokers who had a higher volume of cigarettes reported higher intensity and Omax, and lower intensity (P < 0.001). To achieve the goal of reducing smoking prevalence to 20% in mainland China, we estimated the desired increase on smoking cessation rate and prices accordingly in a series of scenarios, considering the gender variance and reduced smoking initiation. In scenario (a), to achieve a smoking prevalence goal of 20%, it would be necessary for 24.81% of the current smokers to quit smoking when there were no new smokers. Our fitting model yielded a corresponding value of 59.64 yuan (95%CI 53.13-67.24). Given the assumption in scenario (b) that only males quitted smoking, the desired cessation rates would be 25.82%, with a higher corresponding price of 62.15 yuan (95%CI 55.40-70.06) to induce desired cessation rates. In the proposed scenario (c) where 40 percent of the reduction in smoking prevalence came from reduced smoking initiation, and females and males equally quitted smoking due to increased cigarette prices, the price of a pack of cigarettes would be at least 37.36 yuan (95%CI 32.32-42.69) (equals to $ 5.20) per pack to achieve the cessation rate of 14.89 percent. In scenario (d) where only males quitted smoking due to increased cigarette prices considering the reduced smoking initiation, the respective smoking cessation rates should be 15.49% with the desired prices of 38.60 yuan (95%CI 33.53-44.02). After adjusting for education levels and income levels in scenario (c), the price of cigarettes would be at least 37.37 yuan/pack (equals to $ 5.20) (95%CI 30.73-44.94) and 37.84 yuan/pack (equals to $ 5.26) (95%CI 31.94-44.53), respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Cigarette purchase task indices are significantly associated with income levels and prices of commonly used cigarettes, levels of tobacco dependence, and smoking volume, which is inspiring in studying price factors that influence smoking behavior. It is suggested that higher cigarette prices, surpassing the current actual market level, is imperative in mainland China. Stronger policy stra-tegies should be taken to increase tobacco taxes and retail cigarette prices to achieve the Healthy China 2030 goal of reducing smoking prevalence to 20%.

BACKGROUND: Reinforcer pathology (RP) is a theoretical model based on two processes: delay discounting (DD) and drug demand. Given that RP has been shown to have a predictive value on smoking behaviors, several studies have explored which interventions can reduce RP. Consistent with the RP framework, episodic future thinking (EFT) has shown effects on treatment outcomes and RP processes. The vast majority of studies that assess the effects of EFT on RP consist of experimental studies, and no previous research has tested these effects in a clinical sample of smokers.
OBJECTIVE: The primary aim of this study was to assess the effects of EFT on RP throughout the course of a smoking cessation intervention in smokers with substance use disorders (SUDs).
METHODS: Participants were randomized to cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) + EFT (n = 39) or CBT + EFT + contingency management (n = 33). Cotinine, frequency of EFT practices, cigarette purchase task (CPT), and DD were evaluated in treatment sessions. Mixed-effects model repeated measures analysis was used to explore DD and CPT in-treatment changes as a function of EFT practices and cotinine levels.
RESULTS: Greater practice of the EFT component significantly reduced cigarette demand (p < .020) as well as DD (p = .003). Additionally, a greater reduction in cotinine levels coupled with greater EFT practice led to a greater decrease in cigarette demand (p < .014).
CONCLUSIONS: EFT reduced the two facets of RP in treatment-seeking smokers with SUDs.

Background and Objectives: Behavioral economic purchase tasks are widely used to assess drug demand in substance use disorder research. Comorbid alcohol use is common among cigarette smokers and associated with greater difficulty in quitting smoking. However, demand for alcohol and cigarettes in this population has not been fully characterized. The present study addressed this gap by examining alcohol and cigarette demand among treatment-seeking smokers with alcohol use disorder (AUD). Methods: Alcohol and cigarette demand was assessed among 99 smokers with AUD. We conducted Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and correlational analyses on the demand indices. Results: Participants showed higher demand for alcohol than for cigarettes, as evidenced lower elasticity (resistance to increasing price) and higher Omax (maximum response output for drug). PCA revealed a two-factor structure (Persistence and Amplitude) for both alcohol and cigarette demand indices. Cigarette-related demand indices were positively correlated with nicotine dependence, but alcohol-related demand indices were not associated with alcohol dependence, suggesting dissociation between alcohol demand and use behaviors. Discussion and Conclusions: Our results suggest that smokers with AUD were more resistant to price elevations in relation to reducing alcohol consumption as compared to cigarette consumption, suggesting preferential demand for alcohol over cigarettes. However, it is unclear how acute substance exposure/withdrawal impacts the demand indices. Scientific Significance: Potentially differential alcohol and cigarette demands among smokers with AUD should be considered in the concurrent treatment of smoking and alcohol.

BACKGROUND: Behavioral economics has shown that single-item demand indicators are promising for capturing crucial aspects of nicotine reinforcement. It is suggested that brief breakpoint measures perform comparably to full-length demand indices in characterizing nicotine dependence; however, there have been no thorough assessments of their validity in clinical settings.
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the validity and accuracy of a single-item breakpoint in informing on tobacco demand.
METHODS: The sample consisted of 88 treatment-seeking smokers (% males = 70.5%) enrolled in substance use treatment. Participants provided data on smoking characteristics and completed the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence, a single-item breakpoint measure and a 14-item cigarette purchase task (CPT). Hierarchical regressions were performed to compare the predictive capability of a single-item breakpoint and full-length tobacco demand indicators in determining nicotine addiction severity.
RESULTS: The single-item breakpoint was significantly correlated with all indices stemmed from the CPT and both latent factors (all r values = .250-.368). Neither the brief breakpoint nor the full-length breakpoint significantly predicted nicotine dependence. After controlling for sex and smoking variables, factor 2 [β = .565, p < .001] and its observed variables Omax [β = .279, p = .006], 1/elasticity [β = .340, p = .001], and intensity [β = .551, p < .001], robustly predicted nicotine dependence severity.
CONCLUSIONS: Our findings do not support the validity of single-item breakpoint measures for characterizing nicotine dependence in substance users. In a bid to foster translational research, brief demand measures capturing Omax, intensity, and elasticity should be developed.

While there is a large literature on the magnitude of price elasticity of cigarette demand, less is known about the same for chewed tobacco. Moreover, the studies on cigarette demand in Pakistan tend to ignore the heterogeneity in the smoking behaviour. This study estimates price elasticity for cigarette and chewed tobacco demand across different income groups, provinces and regions; and use these coefficients for simulating Pakistan\'s tax policy and its impact on revenue and health outcomes.
Deaton model was applied on the 2015-2016 Household Integrated Income and Consumption Survey dataset to estimate price elasticities of different tobacco products.
The demand for cigarettes is unitary elastic (-1.06), suggesting that a 1% increase in cigarette price would reduce its consumption by 1.06%. On the other hand, the demand for chewed tobacco is relatively inelastic (-0.55). Provincially, the own-price elasticity of cigarettes is negative and significant for all but Kyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province; whereas that of the chewed tobacco is negative and significant only for KP and Balochistan. Besides, the price elasticity of demand for both tobacco products is negative and significant only for lower income group and the rural region. The tax simulations favour a two-tiered tax system over the existing three-tiered system as the former will bring significantly better tax revenue and health outcomes.
While confirming the effectiveness of tax policies in curbing tobacco use, this study concludes that higher tobacco taxes could increase tax revenue and improve public health in Pakistan.

Varenicline is an FDA approved medication for the treatment of nicotine dependence. While the efficacy and safety of this medication have been demonstrated, success rates remain low, and efforts to understand mechanisms of efficacy are in progress. A behavioral economics framework is one unique way to examine how demand for a drug changes under different circumstances. Therefore, the current randomized placebo-controlled, cross-over study aimed to examine effects of varenicline on subjective cigarette craving and objective demand for cigarettes measured by a hypothetical behavioral economic task as well as associations between subjective craving and objective demand.
Non-treatment seeking (n = 37) daily smokers (>10 cigarettes per day) completed a measure of subjective craving for cigarettes and the Cigarette Purchase Task following overnight nicotine abstinence. Participants completed these measures after 10 days on varenicline (1 mg twice per day) and matched placebo.
Analyses revealed a significant reduction in subjective craving for cigarettes while on varenicline (p = 0.01), as compared to placebo, and a sex effect such that females exhibited greater craving than males (p = 0.03). However, there were no medication × sex effects (p = 0.84). Analyses of objective demand for cigarettes found varenicline reduced maximum expenditure (Omax) (p = 0.03). Subjective craving was also associated with various indices of demand.
Results demonstrated varenicline\'s efficacy in attenuating subjective craving and objective demand for cigarettes and highlight the partial overlap between dimensions of acute drug motivation, namely subjective craving and behavioral economic indices of cigarette demand.

To evaluate the impact of cigarette prices on adult smoking for four US racial/ethnic groups: whites, African-Americans, Asians and Hispanics.
We analysed pooled cross-sectional data from the 2006/2007 and 2010/2011 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (n=339 921 adults aged 18+) and cigarette price data from the Tax Burden on Tobacco. Using a two-part econometric model of cigarette demand that controlled for sociodemographic characteristics, state-level antismoking sentiment, local-level smoke-free air laws and monthly indicator, we estimated for each racial/ethnic group the price elasticities of smoking participation, smoking intensity and total demand for cigarettes.
Smoking prevalence for whites, African-Americans, Asians and Hispanics during the study period was 18.3%, 16.1%, 8.2% and 11.3%, respectively. The price elasticity of smoking participation was statistically significant for whites, African-Americans, Asians and Hispanics at -0.26, -0.10, -0.42 and -0.11, respectively. The price elasticity of smoking intensity was statistically significant among whites (-0.22) and African-Americans (-0.17). Overall, the total price elasticity of cigarette demand was statistically significant for all racial/ethnic groups: 0.48 for whites, -0.27 for African-Americans, -0.22 for Asians and -0.15 for Hispanics.
Our results suggest that raising cigarette prices, such as via tobacco tax increases, would result in reduced cigarette consumption for all racial/ethnic groups. The magnitude of the effect and the impact on cessation and reduced smoking intensity differ across these groups.

The study attempts to estimate the demand for cigarettes in Tanzania and presents simulation results on the effect of the cigarette excise tax on smoking participation, government revenue, and related topics. After briefly summarizing the magnitude and spread of cigarette consumption in the country, the paper reviews some empirical estimates from African and other countries. The 2008 Tanzanian household budget survey was used to estimate the demand for cigarettes in Tanzania. The descriptive statistics suggest that the smoking prevalence for Tanzania is 15.35 percent with low variability across expenditure (income) groups. Smoking intensity and per capita consumption were estimated at 7.08 cigarettes and 1.33 cigarettes, respectively, a relatively low value. A two-part demand equation model was used to estimate various elasticities. For the overall equation, the price elasticities of smoking participation, smoking intensity, and total elasticity were estimated at -0.879, -0.853, and -1.732, respectively. Compared to similar results in other developing countries, the estimates appear quite high. When estimated by expenditure (income) groups, the magnitude of the elasticity appears higher among high expenditure groups than among low expenditure groups. Two simulation exercises were undertaken. First, the effect of different excise rates on smoking participation rate, cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and related responses was estimated and highlighted. Second, the same exercise was undertaken to determine the effect of a given increase in the cigarette excise tax on various expenditure groups. The overall results suggest that an increase in the excise tax on cigarettes in Tanzania would reduce cigarette consumption and increase government tax revenue.

This paper examines how Chinese smokers respond to tax-driven cigarette price increases by estimating a discrete choice model of demand for differentiated products, using annual nationwide brand-level cigarette sales data in China from 2005 to 2010. We allow for substitution between different cigarette brands and also incorporate key features of rational addiction theory into the model. Results show that the average own-price elasticity of demand for cigarettes at the brand level is -0.807, and the overall price elasticity of cigarettes at the market level is -0.488 in China. We find tax-induced substitution toward low-price cigarettes as well as high-tar cigarettes and that tax hikes encourage within-class substitution more than across-class substitution. These results have important policy implications for the potential effects of cigarette taxation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.