Stroke risk is currently estimated as part of the composite risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated if composite-CVD risk prediction tools QRISK3 and Pooled Cohort Equations-PCE, derived from middle-aged adults, are as good as stroke-specific Framingham Stroke Risk Profile-FSRP and QStroke for capturing the true risk of stroke in older adults. External validation for 10y stroke outcomes was performed in men (60-79y) of the British Regional Heart Study. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in separate validation samples (FSRP n = 3762, QStroke n = 3376, QRISK3 n = 2669 and PCE n = 3047) with/without adjustment for competing risks. Sensitivity/specificity were examined using observed and clinically recommended thresholds. Performance of FSRP, QStroke and QRISK3 was further compared head-to-head in 2441 men free of a range of CVD, including across age-groups. Observed 10y risk (/1000PY) ranged from 6.8 (hard strokes) to 11 (strokes/transient ischemic attacks). All tools discriminated weakly, C-indices 0.63-0.66. FSRP and QStroke overestimated risk at higher predicted probabilities. QRISK3 and PCE showed reasonable calibration overall with minor mis-estimations across the risk range. Performance worsened on adjusting for competing non-stroke deaths. However, in men without CVD, QRISK3 displayed relatively better calibration for stroke events, even after adjustment for competing deaths, including in oldest men. All tools displayed similar sensitivity (63-73 %) and specificity (52-54 %) using observed risks as cut-offs. When QRISK3 and PCE were evaluated using thresholds for CVD prevention, sensitivity for stroke events was 99 %, with false positive rate 97 % suggesting existing intervention thresholds may need to be re-examined to reflect age-related stroke burden.

Cardio-oncology research studies often require consideration of potential competing risks, as the occurrence of other events (eg, cancer-related death) may preclude the primary event of interest (eg, cardiovascular outcome). However, the decision to conduct competing risks analysis is not always straightforward, and even when deemed necessary, misconceptions exist about the appropriate choice of analytical methods to address the competing risks. R researchers are encouraged to consider competing risks at the study design stage and are provided provide an assessment tool to guide decisions on analytical approach on the basis of study objectives. The existing statistical methods for competing risks analysis, including cumulative incidence estimations and regression modeling are also reviewed. Cardio-oncology-specific examples are used to illustrate these concepts and highlight potential pitfalls and misinterpretations. R code is also provided for these analyses.

UNASSIGNED: Significantly worse survival has been reported in patients with hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS) and partial pressure of arterial oxygen (PaO2) <45 mmHg undergoing liver transplantation. Long-term pre- and post-transplant outcomes based on degree of hypoxaemia were re-examined.
UNASSIGNED: A retrospective analysis of 1,152 HPS candidates listed with an approved HPS model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) exception was performed. A Fine and Gray competing risks model was utilised to evaluate pre-transplant outcomes for PaO2 thresholds of <45, 45 to <60, and ≥60 mmHg. Post-transplant survival was analysed using the Kaplan-Meier method.
UNASSIGNED: Patients with a PaO2 <45 mmHg were significantly more likely to undergo transplantation (hazard ratio [HR] 1.51; 95% CI 1.12-2.03), whereas patients with higher MELD scores had lower hazard of transplant (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.67-0.95, p = 0.011) and higher hazard of pre-transplant death (HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.55-3.37, p <0.001). Post-transplantation, patients with a PaO2 <45 mmHg had lower survival (p = 0.04) compared with patients with a PaO2 ≥45 to <50 mmHg, with survival curves significantly different at 2.6 years (75% survival compared with 86%) and median survival of 11.5 and 14.1 years, respectively. Cardiac arrest was a more likely (p = 0.025) cause of death for these patients. Cardiac arrest incidence in patients who died with a PaO2 >50 mmHg was 6.2%.
UNASSIGNED: Patients with a PaO2 <45 mmHg had a significantly higher rate of transplantation, and higher calculated MELD scores were associated with significantly higher pre-transplant mortality. Although post-transplant survival was lower in patients with a PaO2 <45 mmHg, the median survival was 11.5 years, and survival curves only became significantly different at 2.6 years. This suggests that patients with HPS do benefit from transplantation up to 2-3 years post-transplant regardless of the severity of pre-transplant hypoxaemia.
UNASSIGNED: A total of 1,152 patients with hepatopulmonary syndrome listed for liver transplant were analysed. Patients with a low PaO2 <45 mmHg had a high likelihood of transplantation. If associated with advanced liver disease, the mortality risk was higher for patients with hepatopulmonary syndrome on the wait list. After liver transplantation, patients with a PaO2 <45 mmHg had a lower survival, but this only became significant after 2.6 years, and the median survival was 11.5 years. This suggests that patients with hepatopulmonary syndrome do benefit from transplantation.

UNASSIGNED: The incidence of cirrhosis in Iceland has been the lowest in the world with only 3 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Alcohol consumption has almost doubled in Iceland from 1980 to 2016. Obesity has also risen and hepatitis C virus has spread among people who inject drugs in Iceland. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of these risk factors on the incidence and aetiology of cirrhosis in Iceland.
UNASSIGNED: The study included all patients diagnosed with cirrhosis for the first time during 2010-2015. Diagnosis was based on liver histology or 2 of 4 criteria: cirrhosis on imaging, ascites, varices, and/or elevated INR.
UNASSIGNED: Overall, 157 patients were diagnosed, 105 (67%) males, mean age 61 years. The overall incidence was 9.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants annually. Alcohol was the only underlying cause in 48/157 (31%), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in 34/157(22%), and alcohol and hepatitis C together in 23/157(15%) were the most common causes. Only 6% of patients had an unknown cause of cirrhosis. Upon diagnosis, the median model for end-stage liver disease score was 11 (IQR 8-15), 53% were of Child-Pugh class A whereas 61 (39%) had ascites, 11% encephalopathy, and 8% variceal bleeding. In all, 25% of deaths were from HCC and 25% from liver failure.
UNASSIGNED: A major increase in incidence of cirrhosis has occurred in Iceland associated with increases in alcohol consumption, obesity, and hepatitis C. In a high proportion NAFLD was the aetiology and very few had unknown cause of cirrhosis. The highest death rate was from HCC.
UNASSIGNED: In a nationwide population-based study from Iceland, including all patients diagnosed with cirrhosis of the liver over a period of 5 years, we found the incidence of new cases had increased 3-fold compared with a previous study 20 years ago. The increase is attributable to increased alcohol consumption, an epidemic of diabetes and obesity, and infection with the hepatitis C virus. Furthermore, we found that with thorough investigations, a specific cause for cirrhosis could be found in 94% of patients. Patients with cirrhosis frequently die of liver cancer and other complications related to their liver disease.