背景:老年人术后发病风险增加。存在许多风险分层工具,但是需要努力和人力。
目的:本研究旨在利用开源技术建立老年患者普外科术后不良结局的预测模型,来自观察性健康数据科学和信息学的患者水平预测,用于内部和外部验证。
方法:我们使用了观察性医疗结果伙伴关系通用数据模型和机器学习算法。主要结局是术后90天全因死亡率和急诊就诊的复合结果。次要结果是术后谵妄,术后住院时间延长(≥第75百分位数),住院时间延长(≥21天)。来自首尔国立大学Bundang医院(SNUBH)和首尔国立大学医院(SNUH)通用数据模型的数据的80%对20%的拆分用于模型训练和测试与外部验证。使用接收器工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)以95%CI评价模型性能。
结果:分析了来自27,197(SNUBH)和32,857(SNUH)患者的数据。与随机森林相比,Adaboost,和决策树模型,最小绝对收缩率和选择算子逻辑回归模型对主要结局显示出良好的内部判别准确性(内部AUC0.723,95%CI0.701-0.744)和可运输性(外部AUC0.703,95%CI0.692-0.714).该模型还具有良好的术后谵妄的内部和外部AUC(内部AUC0.754,95%CI0.713-0.794;外部AUC0.750,95%CI0.727-0.772),术后住院时间延长(内部AUC0.813,95%CI0.800-0.825;外部AUC0.747,95%CI0.741-0.753),和住院时间延长(内部AUC0.770,95%CI0.749-0.792;外部AUC0.707,95%CI0.696-0.718)。与年龄或Charlson合并症指数相比,模型具有较好的预测性能。
结论:衍生的模型将有助于临床医生和患者了解手术的个性化风险和收益。
Older adults are at an increased risk of postoperative morbidity. Numerous risk stratification tools exist, but effort and manpower are required.
This study aimed to develop a predictive model of postoperative adverse outcomes in older patients following general surgery with an open-source, patient-level prediction from the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics for internal and external validation.
We used the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership common data model and machine learning algorithms. The primary outcome was a composite of 90-day postoperative all-cause mortality and emergency department visits. Secondary outcomes were postoperative delirium, prolonged postoperative stay (≥75th percentile), and prolonged hospital stay (≥21 days). An 80% versus 20% split of the data from the Seoul National University Bundang Hospital (SNUBH) and Seoul National University Hospital (SNUH) common data model was used for model training and testing versus external validation. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with a 95% CI.
Data from 27,197 (SNUBH) and 32,857 (SNUH) patients were analyzed. Compared to the random forest, Adaboost, and decision tree models, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression model showed good internal discriminative accuracy (internal AUC 0.723, 95% CI 0.701-0.744) and transportability (external AUC 0.703, 95% CI 0.692-0.714) for the primary outcome. The model also possessed good internal and external AUCs for postoperative delirium (internal AUC 0.754, 95% CI 0.713-0.794; external AUC 0.750, 95% CI 0.727-0.772), prolonged postoperative stay (internal AUC 0.813, 95% CI 0.800-0.825; external AUC 0.747, 95% CI 0.741-0.753), and prolonged hospital stay (internal AUC 0.770, 95% CI 0.749-0.792; external AUC 0.707, 95% CI 0.696-0.718). Compared with age or the Charlson comorbidity index, the model showed better prediction performance.
The derived model shall assist clinicians and patients in understanding the individualized risks and benefits of surgery.