背景:公共交通的使用受到安全观念的影响。在2020年纽约市宣布COVID-19大流行紧急状态后,与纽约市(NYC)过境犯罪有关的担忧有所增加,导致地铁乘客量下降。作为回应,最近的市长政府在2022年实施了地铁安全计划。这项研究旨在量化COVID-19大流行和地铁安全计划对纽约市警察局(NYPD)运输局的投诉率和逮捕率的影响。
方法:使用公开的投诉和逮捕数据,我们使用自回归综合移动平均模型对2018年9月至2023年8月的月度数据进行了中断时间序列分析.我们估计了纽约警察局交通局在以下方面之前和之后的投诉和逮捕率的变化:(1)COVID-19大流行紧急状态声明(即,2020年3月),和(2)地铁安全计划的公告(即,2022年2月)。我们还研究了投诉和逮捕类型的趋势以及人口和地理群体的逮捕比例变化。
结果:在COVID-19大流行宣布之后,增加了84%(即,每100万名骑手绝对增加6.07,CI1.42,10.71)在向纽约警察局运输局投诉时,包括99%的增长(每100万名骑手0.91人,CI0.42,1.41)对攻击的投诉和对骚扰的投诉增加125%(每100万骑手0.94,CI0.29,1.60)。根据地铁安全计划,骚扰的逮捕率有所增加(每100万乘客0.004人,CI0.001,0.007),以及种族化白人的逮捕比例(-0.02,CI-0.04,-0.01)和曼哈顿行政区的逮捕比例(-0.13,CI-0.17,-0.09)的下降。
结论:在制定地铁安全计划后,COVID-19大流行后,纽约警察局交通局的投诉率上升。进一步的评估工作可以帮助确定促进公共交通安全的有效手段。
BACKGROUND: Public transportation use is influenced by perceptions of safety. Concerns related to crime on New York City (NYC) transit have risen following NYC\'s COVID-19 pandemic state of emergency declaration in 2020, leading to declines in subway ridership. In response, the most recent mayoral administration implemented a Subway Safety Plan in 2022. This study aimed to quantify the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Subway Safety Plan on rates of complaints to and arrests by the New York City Police Department (NYPD) Transit Bureau.
METHODS: Using publicly available data on complaints and arrests, we conducted interrupted time-series analyses using autoregressive integrated moving average models applied to monthly data for the period from September 2018 to August 2023. We estimated changes in the rates of complaints to and arrests by the NYPD Transit Bureau before and after: (1) the COVID-19 pandemic state of emergency declaration (i.e., March 2020), and (2) the announcement of the Subway Safety Plan (i.e., February 2022). We also examined trends by complaint and arrest type as well as changes in proportion of arrests by demographic and geographic groups.
RESULTS: After the COVID-19 pandemic declaration, there was an 84% increase (i.e., an absolute increase of 6.07 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 1.42, 10.71) in complaints to the NYPD Transit Bureau, including a 99% increase (0.91 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.42, 1.41) in complaints for
assault and a 125% increase in complaints for harassment (0.94 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.29, 1.60). Following the Subway Safety Plan there was an increase in the rate of arrests for harassment (0.004 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.001, 0.007), as well as decreases in the proportion of arrests for individuals racialized as White (- 0.02, CI - 0.04, - 0.01) and proportion of arrests in the borough of Manhattan (- 0.13, CI - 0.17, - 0.09).
CONCLUSIONS: The increased rates of complaints to the NYPD Transit Bureau following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic remained elevated following the enactment of the Subway Safety Plan. Further evaluation efforts can help identify effective means of promoting safety on public transportation.