背景:少量早期研究表明,临时禁欲运动对饮酒有影响。然而,所有这些都是基于自我报告的消费估计.
目标:使用23年月度酒精销售数据的时间序列,这项研究检查了年度临时禁欲运动的效果,自2003年佛教大斋节期间(历时3个月)每年组织一次,人口水平的酒精消费。
方法:分析中使用的数据包括1995年1月至2017年9月的每月酒精销售数据的时间序列以及这些年份的年中人口统计。广义加法模型(GAM)被应用于将趋势估计为时间的平滑函数,同时确定佛教斋戒运动与饮酒之间的关系。使用具有外生变量的季节性自回归综合移动平均值(SARIMAX)模型进行敏感性分析。
方法:佛教斋戒运动是一项全国性的大众媒体运动,与社区活动相结合,在佛教斋戒时期鼓励戒酒,跨度为3个月,在7月至10月之间变化,具体取决于农历。该运动自2003年以来每年组织一次。
结果:使用每月酒精销售数据除以年中总人口数量作为代理的人均酒精消费量。
结果:每月人均纯酒精消费量中位数为0.43(IQR:0.37至0.51)升。在学习期间,饮酒的两个高峰是每年的3月和12月。GAM中运动前和运动后系数之间的显着差异,-0.102(95%CI:-0.163至-0.042),在调整了时间趋势和每月季节性后,显示了该运动对酒精消费的影响,相当于平均减少9.97%(95%CI:3.65%至24.18%)。敏感性分析产生了类似的结果,该活动与消费下降8.1%(95%CI:0.4%至15.7%)相关。
结论:这项研究表明,临时禁欲运动与运动期间人群饮酒量的减少有关。这一发现有助于越来越多的证据证明新兴的临时禁欲运动的有效性。
BACKGROUND: A small number of earlier studies have suggested an effect of temporary abstinence campaigns on alcohol consumption. However, all were based on self-reported consumption estimates.
OBJECTIVE: Using a time series of 23-year monthly alcohol sales data, this study examined the effect of an annual temporary abstinence campaign, which has been organised annually since 2003 during the Buddhist Lent period (spanning 3 months), on population-level alcohol consumption.
METHODS: Data used in the analysis included a time series of monthly alcohol sales data from January 1995 to September 2017 and the midyear population counts for those years. Generalised additive models (GAM) were applied to estimate trends as smooth functions of time, while identifying a relationship between the Buddhist Lent abstinence campaigns on alcohol consumption. The sensitivity analysis was performed using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model.
METHODS: The Buddhist Lent abstinence campaign is a national mass media campaign combined with community-based activities that encourages alcohol abstinence during the Buddhist Lent period, spanning 3 months and varying between July and October depending on the lunar calendar. The campaign has been organised annually since 2003.
RESULTS: Per capita alcohol consumption using monthly alcohol sales data divided by the midyear total population number used as a proxy.
RESULTS: Median monthly per capita consumption was 0.43 (IQR: 0.37 to 0.51) litres of pure alcohol. Over the study period, two peaks of alcohol consumption were in March and December of each year. The significant difference between before-campaign and after-campaign coefficients in the GAM, -0.102 (95% CI: -0.163 to -0.042), indicated an effect of the campaign on alcohol consumption after adjusting for the time trend and monthly seasonality, corresponding to an average reduction of 9.97% (95% CI: 3.65% to 24.18%). The sensitivity analyses produced similar results, where the campaign was associated with a decrease in consumption of 8.1% (95% CI: 0.4% to 15.7%).
CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that the temporary abstinence campaign was associated with a decrease in population-level alcohol consumption during campaign periods. The finding contributed to a growing body of evidence on the effectiveness of emerging temporary abstinence campaigns.