UNASSIGNED: We aimed to estimate the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortalities by sex and all 47 prefectures of Japan until 2040 while accounting for effects of age, period, and cohort and integrating them to be at the national level to account for regional differences among prefectures.
UNASSIGNED: We estimated future CHD and stroke mortality projections, developing Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models in population and the number of CHD and stroke by age, sex, and all 47 prefectures observed from 1995 to 2019; then applying these to official future population estimates until 2040. The present participants were all men and women aged over 30 years and were residents of Japan.
UNASSIGNED: In the BAPC models, the predicted number of national-level cardiovascular deaths from 2020 to 2040 would decrease (39,600 [95% credible interval: 32,200-47,900] to 36,200 [21,500-58,900] CHD deaths in men, and 27,400 [22,000-34,000] to 23,600 [12,700-43,800] in women; and 50,400 [41,900-60,200] to 40,800 [25,200-67,800] stroke deaths in men, and 52,200 [43,100-62,800] to 47,400 [26,800-87,200] in women).
UNASSIGNED: After adjusting these factors, future CHD and stroke deaths will decline until 2040 at the national level and in most prefectures.
UNASSIGNED: This research was supported by the Intramural Research Fund of Cardiovascular Diseases of the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (21-1-6, 21-6-8), JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP22K17821, and the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Comprehensive Research on Life-Style Related (Diseases Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes Mellitus Program), Grant Number 22FA1015.

UNASSIGNED: Given slowing secular declines and persistent racial disparities, stillbirth remains a major health burden in the US. We investigate changes in stillbirth rates overall and for Black and White women, and determine how maternal age, delivery year (period), and birth year (cohort) have shaped trends.
UNASSIGNED: We designed a sequential time-series analysis utilising the 1980 to 2020 US vital records data of live births and stillbirths at ≥24 weeks gestation. Stillbirth rates overall and among Black and White women were examined. We undertook an age-period-cohort analysis to evaluate temporal changes in stillbirth trends.
UNASSIGNED: Of 157,192,032 live births and 710,832 stillbirths between 1980 and 2020, stillbirth rates per 1000 births declined from 10.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.5, 10.7) in 1980 to 5.8 (95% CI 5.7, 5.8) in 2020. Stillbirth rates declined from 9.2 to 5.0 per 1000 births among White women (rate ratio [RR] 0.54, 95% CI 0.53, 0.55), and from 17.4 to 10.1 per 1000 births among Black women (RR 0.57, 95% CI 0.55, 0.59). Black women experienced persistent two-fold higher rates compared to White women (2.01, 95% CI 1.97, 2.05 in 2020). Stillbirth rates declined until 2005, increased from 2005 to the mid-2010s and plateaued thereafter. Strong cohort effects contributed to declining rates in earlier cohorts (1930-1955) and increasing rates among women born after 1980.
UNASSIGNED: Age, period, and birth cohorts greatly influenced US stillbirth rates over the last forty years. The decline in stillbirth rate was evident between 1980 and 2005, however subsequent declines have been minimal, reflecting no further gains for cohorts of women born in 1955-1980 and stagnation of period effects starting in 2005. A significant racial disparity persisted with a two-fold excess in stillbirth rates for Black compared to White women, underscoring the need for targeted health and social policies to address disparities.
UNASSIGNED: None.

Breast cancer (BC) is the most widely studied disease due to its higher prevalence, heterogeneity and mortality.
This study aimed to compare female BC trends among 21 world regions and globally over 28 year of data and to assess the association between sociodemographic transitions and female BC risks.
We used Global burden of disease study data and measure the female BC burden according to 21 world regions and sociodemographic indices (SDI). Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was used to estimate time and cohort trend of BC in different SDI regions.
By world regions, age-standardised rate of female BC incidence were high in high-income-North America (ASR, 92.9; (95 %UI, 89.2, 96.6)), Western Europe (84.7; (73.4, 97.2)) and Australia (86; (81.7, 90.2)) in 2017. Whereas this rate was significantly increased by 89.5% between 1990 and 2017 in East Asia. We observed negative association between SDI and death, and DALYs in 25th and below percentiles of death and DALYs for the worldwide regions. Further, there was observed a strong negative correlation between SDI and case fatality percent (r2017 = -0.93; r1990 = -0.92) in both 2017 and 1990 worldwide and highest case fatality percentage was observed in Central Sub-Saharan Africa. Overall, the risk of case-fatality rate tends to decrease most noticeably in high middle SDI countries, and the reduction of the risk of case-fatality rate in the recent cohort was the lowest in the low SDI countries.
Remarkable variations exist among various regions in BC burden. There is a need to reduce the health burden from BC in less developed and under developing countries, because under-developed countries are facing higher degree of health-related burden. Public health managers should execute more classified and cost-effective screening and treatment interferences to lessen the deaths caused by BC, predominantly among middle and low SDI countries having inadequate healthcare supplies.

BACKGROUND: Despite recent trends in declining smoking rates, tobacco smoking remains the most preventable cause of cancer in Europe. We aimed to estimate numbers and proportions of future lung cancer cases that could be potentially prevented over a 20-year period if countries in Europe were to achieve a comprehensive implementation of tobacco control policies.
METHODS: Historical data from population-based cancer incidence (or mortality) was used to predict sex-specific lung cancer incidence for 30 European countries up to 2037. Hypothetical country-specific smoking prevalence that would be expected if countries would have achieved the highest-level implementation of tobacco control policies (defined by the maximum total score of the Tobacco Control Scale, TCS) was estimated by combining national prevalence data on current smoking and data on the status of implementation of key tobacco control policies. Resulting numbers and proportions of potentially preventable lung cancer cases were estimated taking into account latency periods between changes in smoking prevalence and excess cancer risks.
RESULTS: In Europe, an estimated 1·65 million lung cancer cases (21·2%, 19·8% in men and 23·2% in women) could be prevented over a 20-year period with the highest-level implementation of tobacco control policies. Large variation was seen in European regions and countries reflecting the current level of tobacco control, with the largest potential for prevention in Western Europe (24·5%), Southern Europe (23·1%) and Eastern Europe (22·5%), and the lowest but still substantial potential for further prevention in Northern Europe (12·5%). In women, among whom lung cancer incidence is expected to increase, we estimated somewhat larger proportions of preventable lung cancer cases ranging from 9·9 to 33·9% as compared to men (8·6-28·5%). In the final year of study period (2037), these proportions even exceed 50% in women for some countries.
CONCLUSIONS: Improved and expanded implementation of evidence-based tobacco control policies at the most comprehensive level could reduce future lung cancer incidence considerably across Europe.
BACKGROUND: The study was funded by the German Cancer Aid (\"Deutsche Krebshilfe\"), grant number 70112097.