PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
UNASSIGNED: We aimed to estimate the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortalities by sex and all 47 prefectures of Japan until 2040 while accounting for effects of age, period, and cohort and integrating them to be at the national level to account for regional differences among prefectures.
UNASSIGNED: We estimated future CHD and stroke mortality projections, developing Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models in population and the number of CHD and stroke by age, sex, and all 47 prefectures observed from 1995 to 2019; then applying these to official future population estimates until 2040. The present participants were all men and women aged over 30 years and were residents of Japan.
UNASSIGNED: In the BAPC models, the predicted number of national-level cardiovascular deaths from 2020 to 2040 would decrease (39,600 [95% credible interval: 32,200-47,900] to 36,200 [21,500-58,900] CHD deaths in men, and 27,400 [22,000-34,000] to 23,600 [12,700-43,800] in women; and 50,400 [41,900-60,200] to 40,800 [25,200-67,800] stroke deaths in men, and 52,200 [43,100-62,800] to 47,400 [26,800-87,200] in women).
UNASSIGNED: After adjusting these factors, future CHD and stroke deaths will decline until 2040 at the national level and in most prefectures.
UNASSIGNED: This research was supported by the Intramural Research Fund of Cardiovascular Diseases of the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (21-1-6, 21-6-8), JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP22K17821, and the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Comprehensive Research on Life-Style Related (Diseases Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes Mellitus Program), Grant Number 22FA1015.
UNASSIGNED: We estimated future CHD and stroke mortality projections, developing Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models in population and the number of CHD and stroke by age, sex, and all 47 prefectures observed from 1995 to 2019; then applying these to official future population estimates until 2040. The present participants were all men and women aged over 30 years and were residents of Japan.
UNASSIGNED: In the BAPC models, the predicted number of national-level cardiovascular deaths from 2020 to 2040 would decrease (39,600 [95% credible interval: 32,200-47,900] to 36,200 [21,500-58,900] CHD deaths in men, and 27,400 [22,000-34,000] to 23,600 [12,700-43,800] in women; and 50,400 [41,900-60,200] to 40,800 [25,200-67,800] stroke deaths in men, and 52,200 [43,100-62,800] to 47,400 [26,800-87,200] in women).
UNASSIGNED: After adjusting these factors, future CHD and stroke deaths will decline until 2040 at the national level and in most prefectures.
UNASSIGNED: This research was supported by the Intramural Research Fund of Cardiovascular Diseases of the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (21-1-6, 21-6-8), JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP22K17821, and the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Comprehensive Research on Life-Style Related (Diseases Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes Mellitus Program), Grant Number 22FA1015.
摘要：
UNASSIGNED：我们的目标是估计到2040年日本所有47个县的冠心病（CHD）和中风死亡率的未来负担，同时考虑年龄的影响，period,并将其纳入国家一级，以解决各州之间的区域差异。
未经评估：我们估计了未来的冠心病和中风死亡率预测，在人群中建立贝叶斯年龄周期队列（BAPC）模型以及按年龄划分的CHD和卒中数量，性别,以及从1995年到2019年观察到的所有47个县；然后将这些应用于官方的未来人口估计，直到2040年。目前的参与者都是30岁以上的男性和女性，都是日本居民。
未经评估：在BAPC模型中，从2020年到2040年，全国心血管死亡人数将减少（39,600[95%可信区间：32,200-47,900]至36,200[21,500-58,900]男性冠心病死亡人数，和27,400[22,000-34,000]至23,600[12,700-43,800]妇女;和50,400[41,900-60,200]至40,800[25,200-67,800]男子中风死亡,和52,200[43,100-62,800]至47,400[26,800-87,200]妇女)。
UNASSIGNED：调整这些因素后，未来冠心病和卒中死亡人数将下降至2040年,在全国范围内和大多数州.
UNASSIGNED：这项研究得到了国家脑和心血管中心心血管疾病校内研究基金的支持（21-1-6，21-6-8），JSPSKAKENHI授权号JP22K17821，卫生部，劳动和福利与生活方式相关的综合研究（疾病心血管疾病和糖尿病计划），赠款编号22FA1015。
未经评估：我们估计了未来的冠心病和中风死亡率预测，在人群中建立贝叶斯年龄周期队列（BAPC）模型以及按年龄划分的CHD和卒中数量，性别,以及从1995年到2019年观察到的所有47个县；然后将这些应用于官方的未来人口估计，直到2040年。目前的参与者都是30岁以上的男性和女性，都是日本居民。
未经评估：在BAPC模型中，从2020年到2040年，全国心血管死亡人数将减少（39,600[95%可信区间：32,200-47,900]至36,200[21,500-58,900]男性冠心病死亡人数，和27,400[22,000-34,000]至23,600[12,700-43,800]妇女;和50,400[41,900-60,200]至40,800[25,200-67,800]男子中风死亡,和52,200[43,100-62,800]至47,400[26,800-87,200]妇女)。
UNASSIGNED：调整这些因素后，未来冠心病和卒中死亡人数将下降至2040年,在全国范围内和大多数州.
UNASSIGNED：这项研究得到了国家脑和心血管中心心血管疾病校内研究基金的支持（21-1-6，21-6-8），JSPSKAKENHI授权号JP22K17821，卫生部，劳动和福利与生活方式相关的综合研究（疾病心血管疾病和糖尿病计划），赠款编号22FA1015。
