■国际严重急性呼吸道和新兴感染联盟(ISARIC)4C死亡率评分以前已被用作预测COVID-19患者死亡率的有价值的工具。我们的目的是解决4C评分在沙特阿拉伯一家大型三级转诊医院收治的COVID-19明确定义的沙特人口中的效用。
进行了一项回顾性研究,纳入了武装部队医院南部地区(AFHSR)收治的所有成人COVID-19患者,2021年1月至2022年9月。受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线描绘了4C评分对死亡率预测的诊断性能。
■共纳入1,853例患者。4C评分的ROC曲线的曲线下面积为0.73(95%CI:0.702-0.758),p<0.001。评分>8分的敏感性和特异性分别为80%和58%,分别,阳性预测值和阴性预测值分别为28%和93%,分别。三百一十六(17.1%),638(34.4%),814(43.9%),85(4.6%)患者的发病率较低,中间,高,和非常高的价值,分别。就4C评分计算中使用的所有变量而言,幸存者和非幸存者之间存在显着差异。多变量logistic回归分析显示,4C评分的所有成分,除了性别和O2饱和度,是死亡率的独立显著预测因子。
■我们的数据支持先前的国际和沙特研究,即4C死亡率评分是一种可靠的工具,在COVID-19患者的死亡率预测中具有良好的敏感性和特异性。4C评分的所有组成部分,除了性别和O2饱和度,是死亡率的独立显著预测因子。在4C分数内,赔率比随得分值的增加成比例地增加。未来的多中心前瞻性研究是有必要的。
UNASSIGNED: The International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC)
4C mortality score has been used before as a valuable tool for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to address the utility of the
4C score in a well-defined Saudi population with COVID-19 admitted to a large tertiary referral hospital in Saudi Arabia.
UNASSIGNED: A retrospective study was conducted that included all adults COVID‑19 patients admitted to the Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), between January 2021 and September 2022. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve depicted the diagnostic performance of the
4C Score for mortality prediction.
UNASSIGNED: A total of 1,853 patients were enrolled. The ROC curve of the
4C score had an area under the curve of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.702-0.758), p<0.001. The sensitivity and specificity with scores >8 were 80% and 58%, respectively, the positive and negative predictive values were 28% and 93%, respectively. Three hundred and sixteen (17.1%), 638 (34.4%), 814 (43.9%), and 85 (4.6%) patients had low, intermediate, high, and very high values, respectively. There were significant differences between survivors and non-survivors with regard to all variables used in the calculation of the 4C score. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that all components of the 4C score, except gender and O2 saturation, were independent significant predictors of mortality.
UNASSIGNED: Our data support previous international and Saudi studies that the 4C mortality score is a reliable tool with good sensitivity and specificity in the mortality prediction of COVID-19 patients. All components of the 4C score, except gender and O2 saturation, were independent significant predictors of mortality. Within the
4C score, odds ratios increased proportionately with an increase in the score value. Future multi-center prospective studies are warranted.