atmosphere

大气
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    研究了贮藏气氛对牛肉颜色发育和肌红蛋白(Mb)氧化还原状态的影响。牛肉样品在6种不同的气氛中包装,包括不同的真空度,氧气水平,氮,和含有20%CO2的混合物,并在2°C下储存14天。在这段时间里,测量包装样品的颜色和反射。使用的方法允许快速,easy,以及包装样品的非侵入性测量,无需使用耗时的化学分析。该方法可以在牛肉生产线上实施,具有自动化的潜力。该数据用于说明L*a*b*值,用于了解定性颜色变化。通过计算色差ΔE2000来分析定量颜色变化。此外,脱氧肌红蛋白(DMb)的相对水平,从反射光谱计算氧合肌红蛋白(OMb)和肌红蛋白(MMb)。最重要的发现是:存在很强的相关性(rsp=0.80至0.99,其中一个例外是rsp=0.69(高真空),a*值和相对OMb水平之间的p≤0.05)。含有高氧浓度的储存气氛导致有吸引力的肉色,但是总体颜色和Mb稳定性降低(储存14天后ΔE=5.02(合成空气)和ΔE=2.23(高氧))。真空包装样品在颜色和Mb稳定性方面最稳定(储存14天后ΔE=1.79(高真空)和ΔE=1.63(低真空))。但缺乏想要出售的充满活力的红色。实验表明,颜色测量可以快速,肉质的非侵入性标记。实际应用:在这篇研究文章中,比较了六种不同的储存环境对牛肉在包装储存过程中颜色稳定性和颜色质量的影响。结果表明,在各种与销售相关的场景中使用哪种环境。所描述的方法可以容易地应用于肉类行业,以快速监测储存和湿老化过程中的变化,而不会损坏肉类或打开肉类包装。
    The influence of storage atmosphere on the color development and myoglobin (Mb) redox state of beef was investigated. Beef samples were packaged in 6 different atmospheres including different degrees of vacuum, levels of oxygen, nitrogen, and a mixture with 20% CO2 and stored at 2°C for 14 days. Over this time, color and reflection of the packaged samples were measured. The used method allows quick, easy, and non-invasive measurement of the packaged samples, without using time consuming chemical assays. The method could be implemented in beef production lines, with potential for automatization. The data was used to illustrate the L*a*b* values for insights regarding qualitative color changes. Quantitative color changes were analyzed by calculation of color difference ΔE2000. Additionally, the relative levels of the deoxymyoglobin (DMb), oxymyoglobin (OMb) and metmyoglobin (MMb) were calculated from reflection spectra. The most important findings are: there is a strong correlation (rsp = 0.80 to 0.99 with one exception at rsp = 0.69 (high vacuum), p ≤ 0.05) between a* values and relative OMb levels. Storage atmospheres containing high oxygen concentrations lead to an attractive meat color, but a decreased overall color and Mb stability (ΔE = 5.02 (synthetic air) and ΔE = 2.23 (high oxygen) after 14 days of storage). Vacuum packaged samples are most stable in regards of color and Mb stability (ΔE = 1.79 (high vacuum) and ΔE = 1.63 (low vacuum) after 14 days of storage), but lack in the vibrant red color desired for sale. The experiments showed that color measurement can be a fast, non-invasive marker for meat quality. PRACTICAL APPLICATION: In this research article, six different storage atmospheres are compared regarding their influence on color stability and color quality of beef during storage in packaging. The results suggest which atmospheres to use in various sales-related scenarios. The method described can easily be applied in the meat industry to quickly monitor changes during storage and wet-aging without damaging the meat or opening the meat packages.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    大气二氧化氮(NO2)污染是南非主要由用于发电的化石燃料燃烧引起的主要健康和社会挑战。室内活动的运输和家庭生物质燃烧。污染水平受到各种环境和社会因素的影响,然而,以前的研究利用了有限的因素,或者只关注工业化地区,而忽略了该国大部分地区的贡献。有必要评估社会环境因素,固有地表现出跨空间的变化,影响南非的污染水平。因此,这项研究旨在使用社会环境变量预测对流层NO2柱的年度密度,这些变量在文献中被广泛证明是污染源和汇。用于预测NO2的环境变量包括遥感增强植被指数(EVI),地表温度和气溶胶光学深度(AOD),而社会数据,从全国住户调查中获得,包括能源数据,沉降模式,按城市规模汇总的性别和年龄统计数据。通过应用多尺度地理加权回归来完成预测,该回归在建立地理定位关系时微调每个变量的空间尺度。该模型的总体R2为0.92,表明良好的预测性能以及社会环境变量在估计南非NO2中的重要性。从环境变量中,AOD对增加NO2污染的影响最大,而EVI代表的植被对降低污染水平的作用相反。在社会变量中,家庭电力和木材的使用对污染的贡献最大。公共住宅安排大大减少了NO2,而非正式住区则表现出相反的效果。女性比例是减少NO2的最重要的人口统计学变量。年龄组对NO2污染有混合影响,中年人(20-29岁)是NO2排放的最重要贡献者。当前研究的结果提供了证据,表明NO2污染是由不同空间的社会经济变量解释的。这可以使用MGWR方法可靠地实现,该方法产生适合于每个地点的强模型。
    Atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution is a major health and social challenge in South African induced mainly by fossil fuel combustions for power generation, transportation and domestic biomass burning for indoor activities. The pollution level is moderated by various environmental and social factors, yet previous studies made use of limited factors or focussed on only industrialised regions ignoring the contributions in large parts of the country. There is a need to assess how socio-environmenral factors, which inherently exhibit variations across space, influence the pollution levels in South Africa. This study therefore aimed to predict annual tropospheric NO2 column density using socio-environmental variables that are widely proven in the literature as sources and sinks of pollution. The environmental variables used to predict NO2 included remotely sensed Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Land Surface Temperature and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) while the social data, which were obtained from national household surveys, included energy sources data, settlement patterns, gender and age statistics aggregated at municipality scale. The prediction was accomplished by applying the Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression that fine-tunes the spatial scale of each variable when building geographically localised relationships. The model returned an overall R2 of 0.92, indicating good predicting performance and the significance of the socio-environmental variables in estimating NO2 in South Africa. From the environmental variables, AOD had the most influence in increasing NO2 pollution while vegetation represented by EVI had the opposite effect of reducing the pollution level. Among the social variables, household electricity and wood usage had the most significant contributions to pollution. Communal residential arrangements significantly reduced NO2, while informal settlements showed the opposite effect. The female proportion was the most important demographic variable in reducing NO2. Age groups had mixed effects on NO2 pollution, with the mid-age group (20-29) being the most important contributor to NO2 emission. The findings of the current study provide evidence that NO2 pollution is explained by socio-economic variables that vary widely across space. This can be achieved reliably using the MGWR approach that produces strong models suited to each locality.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    精细模式气溶胶光学深度(fAOD)是大气中人为气溶胶浓度的重要代表。目前,有限的数据长度和基于卫星的数据的高度不确定性削弱了fAOD在气候研究中的适用性。这里,我们提出了一种新颖的预训练深度学习框架,可以提取每个卫星像素的底层信息,并使用它来创建新的潜在特征,可用于提高没有原位数据的区域的检索精度。使用所提出的模型,我们从2001年到2020年开发了新的全球fAOD(0.5μm)数据,在基于站点的独立验证期间,总体相关系数(R)提高了10%,在非AERONET站点区域验证中提高了15%.在过去的二十年里,全球fAOD呈明显下降趋势(-1.39×10-3/年)。与一般的深度学习模型相比,我们的方法将全球趋势以前高估的幅度每年降低7%。中国经历了最显著的下降(-5.07×10-3/年),是全球趋势的3倍。相反,印度表现出显著增长(7.86×10-4/年)。这项研究弥合了稀疏的原位观测和丰富的卫星测量之间的差距,从而改进了fAOD和其他气候因素的全球模式的预测模型。
    Fine-mode aerosol optical depth (fAOD) is a vital proxy for the concentration of anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere. Currently, the limited data length and high uncertainty of the satellite-based data diminish the applicability of fAOD for climate research. Here, we propose a novel pretrained deep learning framework that can extract information underlying each satellite pixel and use it to create new latent features that can be employed for improving retrieval accuracy in regions without in situ data. With the proposed model, we developed a new global fAOD (at 0.5 μm) data from 2001 to 2020, resulting in a 10% improvement in the overall correlation coefficient (R) during site-based independent validation and a 15% enhancement in non-AERONET site areas validation. Over the past two decades, there has been a noticeable downward trend in global fAOD (-1.39 × 10-3/year). Compared to the general deep-learning model, our method reduces the global trend\'s previously overestimated magnitude by 7% per year. China has experienced the most significant decline (-5.07 × 10-3/year), which is 3 times greater than the global trend. Conversely, India has shown a significant increase (7.86 × 10-4/year). This study bridges the gap between sparse in situ observations and abundant satellite measurements, thereby improving predictive models for global patterns of fAOD and other climate factors.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    空气中的微塑料(MPs)是在环境中存在多年的重要污染物,具有普遍性的特点,持久性,和潜在的毒性。这项研究调查了沿海城市大气中MP的陆地和海上运输的影响,并比较了白天和夜间的差异。激光直接红外成像(LDIR)和偏振光显微镜用于表征MPs的物理和化学性质,包括数量浓度,化学类型,形状,和大小。向后的轨迹用于区分气团与海洋和陆地运输。LDIR检测到20种化学类型,橡胶(16.7%)和酚醛树脂(PFR;14.8%)是主要组分。确定了MPs的三种主要形态类型,和片段(78.1%)是优势类型。大气中的MPs集中在小粒径部分(20-50µm)。海洋运输的气团中MP的浓度为14.7个项目/m3,低于陆地运输的浓度(32.0个项目/m3)。空气中MP的数量浓度与相对湿度呈负相关。来自陆地运输的议员主要是橡胶(20.2%),而来自海运的主要是PFR(18%)。海洋运输气团中的MP比陆地运输气团中的MP年龄更大,数量浓度更低。白天空中MP的数量浓度高于晚上。这些发现可能有助于制定有针对性的控制措施和方法以减少MP污染。
    Airborne microplastics (MPs) are important pollutants that have been present in the environment for many years and are characterized by their universality, persistence, and potential toxicity. This study investigated the effects of terrestrial and marine transport of MPs in the atmosphere of a coastal city and compared the difference between daytime and nighttime. Laser direct infrared imaging (LDIR) and polarized light microscopy were used to characterize the physical and chemical properties of MPs, including number concentration, chemical types, shape, and size. Backward trajectories were used to distinguish the air masses from marine and terrestrial transport. Twenty chemical types were detected by LDIR, with rubber (16.7%) and phenol-formaldehyde resin (PFR; 14.8%) being major components. Three main morphological types of MPs were identified, and fragments (78.1%) are the dominant type. MPs in the atmosphere were concentrated in the small particle size segment (20-50 µm). The concentration of MPs in the air mass from marine transport was 14.7 items/m3 - lower than that from terrestrial transport (32.0 items/m3). The number concentration of airborne MPs was negatively correlated with relative humidity. MPs from terrestrial transport were mainly rubber (20.2%), while those from marine transport were mainly PFR (18%). MPs in the marine transport air mass were more aged and had a lower number concentration than those in the terrestrial transport air mass. The number concentration of airborne MPs is higher during the day than at night. These findings could contribute to the development of targeted control measures and methods to reduce MP pollution.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    为了探索拉萨特殊生物质燃烧和悬浮粉尘造成的空气污染,本研究集中于7种非化石污染源产生的颗粒物(PM)排放的尺寸分布和化学特征。我们调查了拉萨收集的7个污染源的微量元素浓度和大小分布。结合拉萨大气颗粒物数据,已计算出富集因子(EF),以检查这些污染源对拉萨大气质量的潜在影响。生物质燃烧总元素的最高质量浓度出现在PM0.4,第二高浓度存在于0.4-1µm的尺寸分数中;生物质燃烧产生的有毒金属比例较高(12%)。悬浮粉尘和大气颗粒物的元素组成接近(As和Cd除外);PM2.5-10(PM3-10)中元素浓度最高。发现钾是主要的生物质标志物之一。悬浮粉尘中Cu的比例明显低于大气颗粒物(0.53%和3.75%),这表明还有其他人为来源。EF分析表明,Cr,Cu,Zn,生物质燃烧产生的Pb在所有粒径下都高度富集(EFs>100)。大多数微量元素的EF随粒径的减小而增加,表明人为因素对较小颗粒的影响更大。
    To explore air contamination resulting from special biomass combustion and suspended dust in Lhasa, the present study focused on the size distribution and chemical characteristics of particulate matter (PM) emission resulting from 7 types of non-fossil pollution sources. We investigated the concentration and size distribution of trace elements from 7 pollution sources collected in Lhasa. Combining Lhasa\'s atmospheric particulate matter data, enrichment factors (EFs) have been calculated to examine the potential impact of those pollution sources on the atmosphere quality of Lhasa. The highest mass concentration of total elements of biomass combustion appeared at PM0.4, and the second highest concentration existed in the size fraction 0.4-1 µm; the higher proportion (12 %) of toxic metals was produced by biomass combustion. The elemental composition of suspended dust and atmospheric particulate matter was close (except for As and Cd); the highest concentration of elements was all noted in PM2.5-10 (PM3-10). Potassium was found to be one of the main biomass markers. The proportion of Cu in suspended dust is significantly lower than that of atmospheric particulate matter (0.53 % and 3.75 %), which indicates that there are other anthropogenic sources. The EFs analysis showed that the Cr, Cu, Zn, and Pb produced by biomass combustion were highly enriched (EFs > 100) in all particle sizes. The EFs of most trace elements increased with decreasing particle size, indicating the greater influence of humanfactors on smaller particles.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    硫循环的化学性质大大有助于大气成核过程,这是新粒子形成(NPF)的第一步。在本研究中,通过理论计算和大气集群动态代码模拟,全面研究了三氧化硫(SO3)与硫化氢(H2S)的环加成反应机理,硫化氢是一种典型的空气污染物和对环境有害的有毒气体。进一步分析了产物硫代硫酸(H2S2O3,TSA)的气相稳定性和成核潜力,以评估其对大气的影响。没有任何催化剂,H2S+SO3反应在24.2kcal/mol的势垒下是不可行的。大气成核前体甲酸(FA),硫酸(SA),和水(H2O)可以有效地降低反应壁垒作为催化剂,甚至可以进行无阻碍的反应,其效率为顺式SA>反式FA>反式SA>H2O。随后,研究了TSA的气相稳定性。在SA的催化作用下,单独的水解反应屏障高达61.4kcal/mol,吸热异构化反应屏障为5.1kcal/mol,证明了TSA的足够稳定性。此外,进行拓扑和动力学分析以确定TSA的成核潜力。由TSA和大气成核前体形成的大气团簇(SA,氨NH3和二甲胺DMA)是热力学稳定的。此外,TSA基簇的蒸发系数逐渐减小,特别是对于TSA-DMA,表明TSA可能参与基础分子浓度相对较高的NPF。目前的新反应机理可能有助于更好地理解大气硫循环和NPF。
    The chemistry of sulfur cycle contributes significantly to the atmospheric nucleation process, which is the first step of new particle formation (NPF). In the present study, cycloaddition reaction mechanism of sulfur trioxide (SO3) to hydrogen sulfide (H2S) which is a typical air pollutant and toxic gas detrimental to the environment were comprehensively investigate through theoretical calculations and Atmospheric Cluster Dynamic Code simulations. Gas-phase stability and nucleation potential of the product thiosulfuric acid (H2S2O3, TSA) were further analyzed to evaluate its atmospheric impact. Without any catalysts, the H2S + SO3 reaction is infeasible with a barrier of 24.2 kcal/mol. Atmospheric nucleation precursors formic acid (FA), sulfuric acid (SA), and water (H2O) could effectively lower the reaction barriers as catalysts, even to a barrierless reaction with the efficiency of cis-SA > trans-FA > trans-SA > H2O. Subsequently, the gas-phase stability of TSA was investigated. A hydrolysis reaction barrier of up to 61.4 kcal/mol alone with an endothermic isomerization reaction barrier of 5.1 kcal/mol under the catalytic effect of SA demonstrates the sufficient stability of TSA. Furthermore, topological and kinetic analysis were conducted to determine the nucleation potential of TSA. Atmospheric clusters formed by TSA and atmospheric nucleation precursors (SA, ammonia NH3, and dimethylamine DMA) were thermodynamically stable. Moreover, the gradually decreasing evaporation coefficients for TSA-base clusters, particularly for TSA-DMA, suggests that TSA may participate in NPF where the concentration of base molecules are relatively higher. The present new reaction mechanism may contributes to a better understanding of atmospheric sulfur cycle and NPF.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    气相氧化剂的非均相氧化是次级有机气溶胶(SOA)的重要化学转化途径,属性,以及气溶胶对气候和健康的影响。然而,我们对这种异质化学的了解仍然不足。在这项研究中,在低和高相对湿度(RH)条件下,研究了羟基(OH)自由基对α-pine烯臭氧分解SOA的非均相氧化,重点研究了SOA分子组成的演变及其对RH的依赖性。发现SOA在OH暴露水平下的非均相氧化相当于12小时的大气老化导致颗粒质量损失在25%RH下为60%,在90%RH下为95%。非均相氧化强烈改变SOA的分子组成。随着OH暴露的增加,二聚体与单体的信号比急剧增加,特别是在高RH条件下,这表明气溶胶水比二聚体更刺激单体与OH自由基的反应。此外,典型的SOA示踪化合物,如松酸,pinonic酸,羟基松糖酸和二聚体酯(例如,C17H26O8和C19H28O7)在典型大气条件下对非均相OH氧化的寿命为数小时,这突出了在使用基于示踪剂的方法估计单萜SOA浓度时需要考虑其异质损失。我们的研究揭示了单萜SOA的非均相氧化化学,并将有助于了解它们在大气中的演变和影响。
    Heterogeneous oxidation by gas-phase oxidants is an important chemical transformation pathway of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and plays an important role in controlling the abundance, properties, as well as climate and health impacts of aerosols. However, our knowledge on this heterogeneous chemistry remains inadequate. In this study, the heterogeneous oxidation of α-pinene ozonolysis SOA by hydroxyl (OH) radicals was investigated under both low and high relative humidity (RH) conditions, with an emphasis on the evolution of molecular composition of SOA and its RH dependence. It is found that the heterogeneous oxidation of SOA at an OH exposure level equivalent to 12 hr of atmospheric aging leads to particle mass loss of 60% at 25% RH and 95% at 90% RH. The heterogeneous oxidation strongly changes the molecular composition of SOA. The dimer-to-monomer signal ratios increase dramatically with rising OH exposure, in particular under high RH conditions, suggesting that aerosol water stimulates the reaction of monomers with OH radicals more than that of dimers. In addition, the typical SOA tracer compounds such as pinic acid, pinonic acid, hydroxy pinonic acid and dimer esters (e.g., C17H26O8 and C19H28O7) have lifetimes of several hours against heterogeneous OH oxidation under typical atmospheric conditions, which highlights the need for the consideration of their heterogeneous loss in the estimation of monoterpene SOA concentrations using tracer-based methods. Our study sheds lights on the heterogeneous oxidation chemistry of monoterpene SOA and would help to understand their evolution and impacts in the atmosphere.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    对流层臭氧(O3)是一种强温室气体,特别是在对流层上层(UT)。有限的观察表明,近几十年来UTO3的持续增加,但是由于巨大的内部气候变化,UTO3变化的归属变得复杂。我们表明,UTO3增加模式中的人为信号(“指纹”)与内部变异性的背景噪声是可区分的。人类引起的UTO3变化的时不变指纹是从使用化学气候模型(CESM2-WACCM6)执行的16个成员的初始条件集合中得出的。指纹在30°S和40°N之间最大,尤其是在30°N附近相比之下,UTO3中的噪声模式主要与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)有关。在2005年OMI/MLS卫星记录开始后的仅13年内,就可以很高的置信度识别UTO3指纹模式。与UTO3指纹不同,对流层下部(LT)O3指纹随时间和空间显着变化,以响应人为前体排放的大规模变化,在亚洲和欧洲,信噪比最高,接近40°N。我们的分析揭示了人类对UT中地球大气化学的重大影响,并表明有希望识别臭氧前体特定来源的指纹。
    Tropospheric ozone (O3) is a strong greenhouse gas, particularly in the upper troposphere (UT). Limited observations point to a continuous increase in UT O3 in recent decades, but the attribution of UT O3 changes is complicated by large internal climate variability. We show that the anthropogenic signal (\"fingerprint\") in the patterns of UT O3 increases is distinguishable from the background noise of internal variability. The time-invariant fingerprint of human-caused UT O3 changes is derived from a 16-member initial-condition ensemble performed with a chemistry-climate model (CESM2-WACCM6). The fingerprint is largest between 30°S and 40°N, especially near 30°N. In contrast, the noise pattern in UT O3 is mainly associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The UT O3 fingerprint pattern can be discerned with high confidence within only 13 years of the 2005 start of the OMI/MLS satellite record. Unlike the UT O3 fingerprint, the lower tropospheric (LT) O3 fingerprint varies significantly over time and space in response to large-scale changes in anthropogenic precursor emissions, with the highest signal-to-noise ratios near 40°N in Asia and Europe. Our analysis reveals a significant human effect on Earth\'s atmospheric chemistry in the UT and indicates promise for identifying fingerprints of specific sources of ozone precursors.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    颗粒硝酸盐(pNO3-)的光解已被认为是对流层中亚硝酸(HONO)的重要来源。然而,确定pNO3-(jpNO3-)的光解速率常数具有很高的不确定性。先前使用气溶胶过滤器对jpNO3进行的实验室测量由于“阴影效应”而变得复杂,“阴影效应”是气溶胶层中的一种消光现象,可能会使这些测量产生偏差。我们开发了一种方法,可以使用具有相同化学成分但不同气溶胶含量的气溶胶过滤器来校正pNO3-对HONO生产的光解速率常数(jpNO3-→HONO)的阴影效应。我们应用该方法量化了冬季霾期间华北平原(NCP)的jpNO3-→HONO。校正阴影效果后,5°C时的归一化平均jpNO3-→HONO从5.89×10-6s-1增加到1.72×10-5s-1。jpNO3-→HONO随pH值和PM2.5中硝酸盐含量的增加而降低,与硝酸盐浓度无关。开发了jpNO3-→HONO的参数化方法,用于在NCP和类似环境中进行HONO生产的模型模拟。
    The photolysis of particulate nitrate (pNO3-) has been suggested to be an important source of nitrous acid (HONO) in the troposphere. However, determining the photolysis rate constant of pNO3- (jpNO3-) suffers from high uncertainty. Prior laboratory measurements of jpNO3- using aerosol filters have been complicated by the \"shadow effect\"─a phenomenon of light extinction within aerosol layers that potentially skews these measurements. We developed a method to correct the shadow effect on the photolysis rate constant of pNO3- for HONO production (jpNO3- → HONO) using aerosol filters with identical chemical compositions but different aerosol loadings. We applied the method to quantify jpNO3- → HONO over the North China Plain (NCP) during the winter haze period. After correcting for the shadow effect, the normalized average jpNO3- → HONO at 5 °C increased from 5.89 × 10-6 s-1 to 1.72 × 10-5 s-1. The jpNO3- → HONO decreased with increasing pH and nitrate proportions in PM2.5 and had no correlation with nitrate concentrations. A parametrization for jpNO3- → HONO was developed for model simulation of HONO production in NCP and similar environments.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    当前将地表变暖保持在一定水平以下的策略,e.g.,1.5或2°C,主张将人为累积碳排放总量限制在0.9或1.25EgC(1018克碳),分别。这些可允许的排放预算基于累积排放与各种建模工作中确定的变暖之间的近似线性关系。IPCC在其《政策制定者摘要》(§D1.1和图SPM.10)中以很高的置信度评估了这种近似线性关系。在这里,我们使用最新一代的地球系统模型(ESM)在专门设计的模拟中测试了这种比例性,该模型包括具有更新的陆地生态系统过程的交互式碳循环。和一套CMIP模拟(ZecMIP,ScenarioMIP)。我们发现,对于相同的累积排放量,大气CO2浓度可以相差100ppmv,地表变暖则相差0.31°C(陆地上的0.46°C)(≈1.2EgC,2°C目标的近似碳预算)。每1Eg排放的碳(瞬态气候对累积碳排放的响应;TCRE)的CO2浓度和变暖不仅取决于总排放量,而且在排放的时间上,迄今为止主要被忽视了。TCRE的分解表明,海洋热量吸收正在补偿一些,但不是全部,碳循环反应诱导的途径依赖性。时间依赖性显然是由于海洋中,特别是陆地上的碳封存过程滞后而产生的,viz.,生态演替,土地覆盖,和人口的变化,等。,在大多数ESM中仍然表现不佳。这意味着碳系统的时间演变状态,但是令人惊讶的是,将碳分配给陆地和海洋的方式与排放途径无关。因此,尽管TCRE对于相同总排放量的不同途径不同,当与碳系统的状态相关时,它大致是恒定的,i.e.,储存在表面水槽中的碳量。虽然这项研究并没有从根本上使既定的TCRE概念无效,它确实揭示了与碳系统状态相关的其他不确定性。因此,为了准确预测未来排放的影响,需要努力更好地理解这种状态与观测和改进模型的依赖性。
    Current strategies to hold surface warming below a certain level, e. g., 1.5 or 2°C, advocate limiting total anthropogenic cumulative carbon emissions to ∼0.9 or ∼1.25 Eg C (1018 grams carbon), respectively. These allowable emission budgets are based on a near-linear relationship between cumulative emissions and warming identified in various modeling efforts. The IPCC assesses this near-linear relationship with high confidence in its Summary for Policymakers (§D1.1 and Figure SPM.10). Here we test this proportionality in specially designed simulations with a latest-generation Earth system model (ESM) that includes an interactive carbon cycle with updated terrestrial ecosystem processes, and a suite of CMIP simulations (ZecMIP, ScenarioMIP). We find that atmospheric CO2 concentrations can differ by ∼100 ppmv and surface warming by ∼0.31°C (0.46°C over land) for the same cumulated emissions (≈1.2 Eg C, approximate carbon budget for 2°C target). CO2 concentration and warming per 1 Eg of emitted carbon (Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Emissions; TCRE) depend not just on total emissions, but also on the timing of emissions, which heretofore have been mainly overlooked. A decomposition of TCRE reveals that oceanic heat uptake is compensating for some, but not all, of the pathway dependence induced by the carbon cycle response. The time dependency clearly arises due to lagged carbon sequestration processes in the oceans and specifically on land, viz., ecological succession, land-cover, and demographic changes, etc., which are still poorly represented in most ESMs. This implies a temporally evolving state of the carbon system, but one which surprisingly apportions carbon into land and ocean sinks in a manner that is independent of the emission pathway. Therefore, even though TCRE differs for different pathways with the same total emissions, it is roughly constant when related to the state of the carbon system, i. e., the amount of carbon stored in surface sinks. While this study does not fundamentally invalidate the established TCRE concept, it does uncover additional uncertainties tied to the carbon system state. Thus, efforts to better understand this state dependency with observations and refined models are needed to accurately project the impact of future emissions.
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