自2019年底出现以来,SARS-CoV-2病毒已导致全球健康危机,影响数百万人,重塑全球社会和经济。以高空间分辨率研究SARS-CoV-2扩散及其时空动力学的决定因素对于公共卫生和决策至关重要。
■这项研究分析了2020年3月和2022年4月在沃州进行的194,682个地理参考的SARS-CoV-2RT-PCR测试,瑞士。我们使用空间和时间聚类的度量来表征五个不同的大流行时期,例如逆香农熵,胡佛指数,劳埃德平均拥挤指数,和改进的空时DBSCAN算法。我们评估了人口统计,社会经济,以及在每个时期使用极限梯度提升(XGBoost)和SHapley加法扩张(SHAP)促进集群持久性的环境因素,考虑非线性和空间效应。
■我们的发现揭示了病例的空间和时间聚类的重要变化。值得注意的是,流行程度较低的地区总发作率较高。空气污染成为一个因素,显示出与较高的集群持久性具有一致的正相关关系,通过引入模型和,在较小程度上,对流层NO2估计。因素包括人口密度,测试率,地理坐标,还显示出与更高的集群持久性的重要正相关。社会经济指数对集群持久性没有显著贡献,表明它在观察到的动力学中的作用有限,这值得进一步研究。
■总的来说,集群持久性的决定因素在整个研究期间仍然存在.这些发现强调了有效的空气质量管理策略的必要性,以减轻空气污染对公众健康的不利影响。特别是在呼吸道病毒性疾病如COVID-19的背景下。
UNASSIGNED: Since its emergence in late 2019, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has led to a global health crisis, affecting millions and reshaping societies and economies worldwide. Investigating the determinants of SARS-CoV-2 diffusion and their spatiotemporal dynamics at high spatial resolution is critical for public health and policymaking.
UNASSIGNED: This study analyses 194,682 georeferenced SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tests from March 2020 and April 2022 in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland. We characterized five distinct pandemic periods using metrics of spatial and temporal clustering like inverse Shannon entropy, the Hoover index, Lloyd\'s index of mean crowding, and the modified space-time DBSCAN algorithm. We assessed the demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental factors contributing to cluster persistence during each period using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to consider non-linear and spatial effects.
UNASSIGNED: Our findings reveal important variations in the spatial and temporal clustering of cases. Notably, areas with flatter epidemics had higher total attack rate. Air pollution emerged as a factor showing a consistent positive association with higher cluster persistence, substantiated by both immission models and, to a lesser extent, tropospheric NO2 estimations. Factors including population density, testing rates, and geographical coordinates, also showed important positive associations with higher cluster persistence. The socioeconomic index showed no significant contribution to cluster persistence, suggesting its limited role in the observed dynamics, which warrants further research.
UNASSIGNED: Overall, the determinants of cluster persistence remained across the study periods. These findings highlight the need for effective air quality management strategies to mitigate air pollution\'s adverse impacts on public health, particularly in the context of respiratory viral diseases like COVID-19.