hypothesis testing

假设检验
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们将纵向全基因组关联研究中不规则时间点观察到的阿尔茨海默病相关表型响应变量建模为稀疏功能数据,并提出非参数检验程序来检测功能基因型效应,同时控制环境协变量的混杂效应。我们对协方差测试的新功能分析基于看似无关的内核平滑器,它考虑了受试者内部的时间相关性,从而享受比现有功能测试更好的能力。我们证明了所提出的测试与一致一致的非参数协方差函数估计器相结合,具有Wilks现象,并且是minimax最强大的。本文所用的数据来自阿尔茨海默病神经影像学倡议(ADNI)数据库,其中提出的测试的应用导致发现了可能与阿尔茨海默病有关的新基因。
    We model the Alzheimer\'s Disease-related phenotype response variables observed on irregular time points in longitudinal Genome-Wide Association Studies as sparse functional data and propose nonparametric test procedures to detect functional genotype effects while controlling the confounding effects of environmental covariates. Our new functional analysis of covariance tests are based on a seemingly unrelated kernel smoother, which takes into account the within-subject temporal correlations, and thus enjoy improved power over existing functional tests. We show that the proposed test combined with a uniformly consistent nonparametric covariance function estimator enjoys the Wilks phenomenon and is minimax most powerful. Data used in the preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer\'s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database, where an application of the proposed test lead to the discovery of new genes that may be related to Alzheimer\'s Disease.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    神经创伤领域正在努力应对最近发现的复制危机的影响。因此,必须注意识别和执行最合适的统计分析。这将防止滥用研究资源,并确保结论合理且在数据范围内。我们预计,贝叶斯统计方法将在未来几年看到越来越多的使用。贝叶斯方法将先验信念(或先验数据)集成到统计模型中,以合并历史信息和当前实验数据。这些方法可以提高检测实验组之间差异的能力(即,统计能力)在适当使用时。然而,如果要实施或评估这些分析,研究人员需要意识到这些方法的优势和局限性。最终,使用贝叶斯方法的方法可能对统计能力有实质性的好处,但是在识别和定义先前的信念时需要谨慎。
    The field of neurotrauma is grappling with the effects of the recently identified replication crisis. As such, care must be taken to identify and perform the most appropriate statistical analyses. This will prevent misuse of research resources and ensure that conclusions are reasonable and within the scope of the data. We anticipate that Bayesian statistical methods will see increasing use in the coming years. Bayesian methods integrate prior beliefs (or prior data) into a statistical model to merge historical information and current experimental data. These methods may improve the ability to detect differences between experimental groups (i.e., statistical power) when used appropriately. However, researchers need to be aware of the strengths and limitations of such approaches if they are to implement or evaluate these analyses. Ultimately, an approach using Bayesian methodologies may have substantial benefits to statistical power, but caution needs to be taken when identifying and defining prior beliefs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    假设检验(HT)的主要挑战在于确定I型(假阳性)和II型(未检测或假阴性)错误概率之间的最佳平衡。分析这些误差的指数收敛速度,被称为误差指数,提供对系统性能的重要见解。误差指数提供了一个镜头,通过它我们可以理解操作限制,例如资源限制和通信障碍,影响网络系统中分布式推理的准确性。这项调查全面回顾了HT的关键结果,从基础斯坦的引理到分布式HT的最新进展,都是通过误差指数的框架统一起来的。我们探索渐近和非渐近结果,强调它们对设计健壮高效的网络系统的影响,例如通过有损无线传感器监控网络进行事件检测,车辆环境中基于集体感知的目标检测,和分布式环境中的时钟同步,在其他人中。我们表明,理解错误指数的作用为优化决策和提高联网系统的可靠性提供了有价值的工具。
    A central challenge in hypothesis testing (HT) lies in determining the optimal balance between Type I (false positive) and Type II (non-detection or false negative) error probabilities. Analyzing these errors\' exponential rate of convergence, known as error exponents, provides crucial insights into system performance. Error exponents offer a lens through which we can understand how operational restrictions, such as resource constraints and impairments in communications, affect the accuracy of distributed inference in networked systems. This survey presents a comprehensive review of key results in HT, from the foundational Stein\'s Lemma to recent advancements in distributed HT, all unified through the framework of error exponents. We explore asymptotic and non-asymptotic results, highlighting their implications for designing robust and efficient networked systems, such as event detection through lossy wireless sensor monitoring networks, collective perception-based object detection in vehicular environments, and clock synchronization in distributed environments, among others. We show that understanding the role of error exponents provides a valuable tool for optimizing decision-making and improving the reliability of networked systems.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    从很小的时候,儿童以某种方式探索他们的环境,表明他们推理因果变量并寻求因果解释。的确,经过对黑猩猩解决问题能力的广泛研究,波维内利(猿类民间物理学,牛津大学出版社,2000)提出,这种推理不可观察变量的能力是人类独有的。从这个开始,波维内利和邓菲-莱利(加拿大实验心理学杂志,55(2)、187-195,2001)解决了黑猩猩是否会探索物体的问题,目的是阐明不可观察和令人惊讶的物体属性。黑猩猩,与学龄前儿童不同,在对象的不可观察属性发生变化后,没有显示对象探索的增加。我们批判性地讨论了这些发现,并认为需要使用更多种类的方法和更多物种的更多研究来支持只有人类参与解释寻求的假设。最后,我们强调了自Povinelli和Dunphy-Lelii进行原始调查以来,基于针对对象探索和信息寻求的发展和比较研究的未来研究途径。
    From an early age, children explore their environment in a way suggesting that they reason about causal variables and seek causal explanations. Indeed, following extensive studies of problem-solving abilities in chimpanzees, Povinelli (Folk Physics for Apes, Oxford University Press, 2000) proposed that this ability to reason about unobservable variables is unique to humans. Following on from this, Povinelli and Dunphy-Lelii (Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology, 55(2), 187-195, 2001) addressed the question whether chimpanzees would explore objects with the aim of elucidating unobservable and surprising object properties. Chimpanzees, unlike preschool children, did not show increased object exploration following a change in the unobservable properties of an object. We critically discuss these findings and argue that more research using a greater variety of methods and with a larger number of species is required to support the hypothesis that only humans engage in explanation seeking. We conclude by highlighting avenues for future research based on developmental and comparative research aimed at object exploration and information seeking conducted since the original investigation by Povinelli and Dunphy-Lelii.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    大脑结构和功能测量值之间的个体内部耦合在发育中发展,可能是神经精神疾病风险的基础。尽管人们对结构-功能关系的发展越来越感兴趣,量化和测试耦合个体差异的严格方法仍处于起步阶段。在这篇文章中,我们探索并解决了测试和空间定位模态间耦合中个体差异的方法差距。我们提出了一种新的方法,称为CIDeR,它旨在以限制假阳性结果并提高对真阳性结果的检测的方式同时进行假设检验。通过比较不同的方法来测试模态间耦合的个体差异,我们描绘了他们测试的假设中的细微差异,这可能最终导致研究人员得出不同的结果。最后,我们使用来自费城神经发育队列的数据说明CIDeR在大脑发育的两个应用中的实用性。
    Within-individual coupling between measures of brain structure and function evolves in development and may underlie differential risk for neuropsychiatric disorders. Despite increasing interest in the development of structure-function relationships, rigorous methods to quantify and test individual differences in coupling remain nascent. In this article, we explore and address gaps in approaches for testing and spatially localizing individual differences in intermodal coupling. We propose a new method, called CIDeR, which is designed to simultaneously perform hypothesis testing in a way that limits false positive results and improve detection of true positive results. Through a comparison across different approaches to testing individual differences in intermodal coupling, we delineate subtle differences in the hypotheses they test, which may ultimately lead researchers to arrive at different results. Finally, we illustrate the utility of CIDeR in two applications to brain development using data from the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    分位数回归已成为分析竞争风险数据的广泛使用的工具。然而,具有连续标记的竞争风险数据的分位数回归仍然很少。标记变量是经典竞争风险模型中失败原因的扩展,其中失败原因被仅在未经审查的失败时间观察到的连续标记代替。连续标记变量的实例是测量感染病毒与疫苗构建体中包含的病毒之间的不相似性的遗传距离。在这篇文章中,我们提出了一种新的标记特定分位数回归模型。所提出的估计方法从标记附近的数据中借用强度,并基于诱导的平滑估计方程,这与现有的具有离散原因的竞争风险数据的方法有很大不同。所得估计量的渐近性质是在标记和分位数连续体中建立的。此外,提出了一种标记特异性分位数型疫苗效力,并开发了其统计推断程序。进行了模拟研究,以评估所提出的估计和假设检验程序的有限样本性能。提供了第一个HIV疫苗效力试验的应用。
    Quantile regression has become a widely used tool for analysing competing risk data. However, quantile regression for competing risk data with a continuous mark is still scarce. The mark variable is an extension of cause of failure in a classical competing risk model where cause of failure is replaced by a continuous mark only observed at uncensored failure times. An example of the continuous mark variable is the genetic distance that measures dissimilarity between the infecting virus and the virus contained in the vaccine construct. In this article, we propose a novel mark-specific quantile regression model. The proposed estimation method borrows strength from data in a neighbourhood of a mark and is based on an induced smoothed estimation equation, which is very different from the existing methods for competing risk data with discrete causes. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established across mark and quantile continuums. In addition, a mark-specific quantile-type vaccine efficacy is proposed and its statistical inference procedures are developed. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performances of the proposed estimation and hypothesis testing procedures. An application to the first HIV vaccine efficacy trial is provided.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    功能网络通常指导我们对脑表型关联的空间图的解释。然而,评估感兴趣的网络中关联的丰富程度的方法在科学严谨和基本假设方面都有所不同。虽然有些方法依赖于主观解释,其他人对成像数据的空间属性做出了不切实际的假设,导致假阳性率膨胀。我们寻求通过借鉴遗传学研究中广泛使用的方法来测试一组基因与感兴趣的表型之间关联的富集,从而解决现有方法中的这一差距。我们提出了网络富集显著性测试(NEST),一个灵活的框架,用于测试脑表型关联与功能网络或大脑其他子区域的特异性。我们应用NEST来研究来自大规模神经发育队列研究的结构和功能脑成像数据的关联。
    Functional networks often guide our interpretation of spatial maps of brain-phenotype associations. However, methods for assessing enrichment of associations within networks of interest have varied in terms of both scientific rigor and underlying assumptions. While some approaches have relied on subjective interpretations, others have made unrealistic assumptions about spatial properties of imaging data, leading to inflated false positive rates. We seek to address this gap in existing methodology by borrowing insight from a method widely used in genetics research for testing enrichment of associations between a set of genes and a phenotype of interest. We propose network enrichment significance testing (NEST), a flexible framework for testing the specificity of brain-phenotype associations to functional networks or other sub-regions of the brain. We apply NEST to study enrichment of associations with structural and functional brain imaging data from a large-scale neurodevelopmental cohort study.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文考虑了一种方法来检验以下假设:两个对象集合来自此类对象的相同均匀分布。基于观察到的重叠的分布来计算精确的P值。此外,不同物体数量的区间估计,当所有物体的可能性相等时,表示。
    This article considers a way to test the hypothesis that two collections of objects are from the same uniform distribution of such objects. The exact p-value is calculated based on the distribution for the observed overlaps. In addition, an interval estimate of the number of distinct objects, when all objects are equally likely, is indicated.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    信息论解释了系统如何编码和传输信息。这篇文章研究了神经元系统,它通过对刺激做出反应并传输电信号的神经元来处理信息。具体来说,我们专注于传递熵来测量序列之间的信息流,并探索其在确定有效神经元连通性中的用途。我们分析了两个离散时间序列之间的因果关系,X:=Xt:tεZ和Y:=Yt:tεZ,它采用二进制字母的值。当二元过程(X,Y)是记忆不大于k的联合平稳遍历变长马尔可夫链,我们证明了测试的零假设-没有因果影响-需要零传递熵率。该函数的插件估计器通过对数似然比的检验统计来识别。因为在零假设下,该估计器遵循渐近卡方分布,当应用于经验数据时,它有助于计算p值。假设检验的有效性用神经网络模型模拟的数据来说明,以具有可变长度记忆的随机神经元为特征。测试结果确定了生物学相关信息,验证基础理论,并强调该方法在理解神经元之间有效连接方面的适用性。
    Information theory explains how systems encode and transmit information. This article examines the neuronal system, which processes information via neurons that react to stimuli and transmit electrical signals. Specifically, we focus on transfer entropy to measure the flow of information between sequences and explore its use in determining effective neuronal connectivity. We analyze the causal relationships between two discrete time series, X:=Xt:t∈Z and Y:=Yt:t∈Z, which take values in binary alphabets. When the bivariate process (X,Y) is a jointly stationary ergodic variable-length Markov chain with memory no larger than k, we demonstrate that the null hypothesis of the test-no causal influence-requires a zero transfer entropy rate. The plug-in estimator for this function is identified with the test statistic of the log-likelihood ratios. Since under the null hypothesis, this estimator follows an asymptotic chi-squared distribution, it facilitates the calculation of p-values when applied to empirical data. The efficacy of the hypothesis test is illustrated with data simulated from a neuronal network model, characterized by stochastic neurons with variable-length memory. The test results identify biologically relevant information, validating the underlying theory and highlighting the applicability of the method in understanding effective connectivity between neurons.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    当先验定义组时,均值差异的经典测试控制I型错误率。然而,当通过聚类定义组时,然后应用经典测试会产生极其膨胀的I型错误率。值得注意的是,即使使用两个独立的数据集来定义组并测试它们的均值差异,这个问题仍然存在。为了解决这个问题,在本文中,我们提出了一种选择性推理方法来测试两个集群之间的均值差异。我们的程序通过考虑基于数据选择零假设的事实来控制选择性I型错误率。我们描述了如何有效地计算使用具有许多常用链接的聚集分层聚类获得的聚类的精确p值。我们将我们的方法应用于模拟数据和单细胞RNA测序数据。
    Classical tests for a difference in means control the type I error rate when the groups are defined a priori. However, when the groups are instead defined via clustering, then applying a classical test yields an extremely inflated type I error rate. Notably, this problem persists even if two separate and independent data sets are used to define the groups and to test for a difference in their means. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose a selective inference approach to test for a difference in means between two clusters. Our procedure controls the selective type I error rate by accounting for the fact that the choice of null hypothesis was made based on the data. We describe how to efficiently compute exact p-values for clusters obtained using agglomerative hierarchical clustering with many commonly-used linkages. We apply our method to simulated data and to single-cell RNA-sequencing data.
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