根据欧盟委员会的要求,EFSA植物健康小组对伊万特氏菌(鳞翅目:Pyralidae)进行了害虫风险评估,肚脐猩猩,对于欧盟。定量评估考虑了两种情况:(i)当前做法和(ii)冷藏运输的要求。评估的重点是引入途径,气候条件和宿主的种植允许建立,传播和影响。A.transitella是杏仁的常见害虫,加州的开心果和核桃,这是进口到欧盟的这些坚果的主要来源。根据原产地贸易和侵扰的规模,从美国进口的核桃和杏仁被认为是进入A.tranitella的最重要途径。使用专家知识启发(EKE)和路径建模,在未来5年中,预计每年将有2,630个受感染的坚果进入欧盟(90%的确定性范围(CR)从每年338到26,000个受感染的坚果)。然而,由于转移到主机的可能性估计很小,在创始人群体的转移和生存时交配,建立的人口数量估计为0.000698年-1(中位数,90%CR:0.0000126-0.0364年-1)。因此,成立事件之间的预期期为1,430年(中位数,90%CR:27.5-79,400年)。因此,导致建立的进入可能性被认为非常小。然而,这个估计有很高的不确定性,主要涉及将昆虫转移到宿主的过程以及成功转移的人建立创始人种群。气候匹配和CLIMEX模型表明,条件最适合在欧盟南部建立,特别是在地中海盆地周围。自然蔓延的中位数估计为5.6公里/年(中位数,90%CR0.8-19.3公里/年),经过3.1年的初始滞后期(平均,90%CR1.7-6.2年)在建立创始人人口后。如果A.tranitella确实建立了,根据坚果种类和生产系统,估计坚果的平均产量损失约为1-2%。事实证明,需要在冷藏条件下运输进口坚果的情况有可能进一步降低进入的可能性。
Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest risk assessment of Amyelois transitella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), the navel orangeworm, for the EU. The quantitative assessment considered two scenarios: (i) current practices and (ii) a requirement for chilled transport. The assessment focused on pathways of introduction, climatic conditions and cultivation of hosts allowing
establishment, spread and impact. A. transitella is a common pest of almonds, pistachios and walnuts in California, which is the main source for these nuts imported into the EU. Based on size of the trade and infestation at origin, importation of walnuts and almonds from the USA was identified as the most important pathways for entry of A. transitella. Using expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) and pathway modelling, a median estimate of 2,630 infested nuts is expected to enter the EU each year over the next 5 years (90% certainty range (CR) from 338 to 26,000 infested nuts per year). However, due to estimated small likelihoods of transfer to a host, mating upon transfer and survival of founder populations, the number of populations that establish was estimated to be 0.000698 year-1 (median, 90% CR: 0.0000126-0.0364 year-1). Accordingly, the expected period between founding events is 1,430 years (median, 90% CR: 27.5-79,400 year). The likelihood of entry resulting in
establishment is therefore considered very small. However, this estimate has high uncertainty, mainly concerning the processes of transfer of the insect to hosts and the
establishment of founder populations by those that successfully transfer. Climate matching and CLIMEX modelling indicate that conditions are most suitable for
establishment in the southern EU, especially around the Mediterranean basin. The median rate of natural spread was estimated to be 5.6 km/year (median, 90% CR 0.8-19.3 km/year), after an initial lag period of 3.1 year (mean, 90% CR 1.7-6.2 year) following the
establishment of a founder population. If A. transitella did establish, estimated median yield losses in nuts were estimated to be in the order of 1-2% depending on the nut species and production system. A scenario requiring imports of nuts to be transported under chilled conditions was shown to provide potential to further reduce the likelihood of entry.