Mechanistic mathematical models (MMs) are a powerful tool to help us understand and predict the dynamics of tumour growth under various conditions. In this work, we use 5 MMs with an increasing number of parameters to explore how certain (often overlooked) decisions in estimating parameters from data of experimental tumour growth affect the outcome of the analysis. In particular, we propose a framework for including tumour volume measurements that fall outside the upper and lower limits of detection, which are normally discarded. We demonstrate how excluding censored data results in an overestimation of the initial tumour volume and the MM-predicted tumour volumes prior to the first measurements, and an underestimation of the carrying capacity and the MM-predicted tumour volumes beyond the latest measurable time points. We show in which way the choice of prior for the MM parameters can impact the posterior distributions, and illustrate that reporting the most likely parameters and their 95% credible interval can lead to confusing or misleading interpretations. We hope this work will encourage others to carefully consider choices made in parameter estimation and to adopt the approaches we put forward herein.

BACKGROUND: Tumor burden score (TBS) based on maximum tumor diameter and number has been shown to correlate with prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Nevertheless, the results are conflicting. Hence, we conducted a meta-analysis to analyze the association between TBS and survival outcomes of HCC patients.
METHODS: A comprehensively search of the databases including PubMed, Embase and Web of Science was performed to retrieve studies satisfying the inclusion criteria until August 31, 2023. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. All the data analyses were carried out by STATA 12.0.
RESULTS: 10 retrospective studies containing 25073 patients were incorporated in the study. The results demonstrated that high TBS was markedly association with poor overall survival (OS) (HR: 1.79, 95% CI: 1.45-2.23) and relapse-free survival / progression-free survival(RFS/PFS) (HR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.42-2.07). Subgroup analysis showed that the prognostic value of TBS in HCC was not affected by any subgroup.
CONCLUSIONS: TBS may be an efficient prognostic index in HCC patients.

BACKGROUND: The lack of preoperative prognostic factors to accurately predict tumour aggressiveness in non-functioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours may result in inappropriate management decisions. This study aimed to critically evaluate the adequacy of surgical treatment in patients with resectable non-functioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours and investigate preoperative features of surgical appropriateness.
METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on patients who underwent curative surgery for non-functioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours at San Raffaele Hospital (2002-2022). The appropriateness of surgical treatment was categorized as appropriate, potential overtreatment and potential undertreatment based on histologic features of aggressiveness and disease relapse within 1 year from surgery (early relapse).
RESULTS: A total of 384 patients were included. Among them, 230 (60%) received appropriate surgical treatment, whereas the remaining 154 (40%) underwent potentially inadequate treatment: 129 (34%) experienced potential overtreatment and 25 (6%) received potential undertreatment. The appropriateness of surgical treatment was significantly associated with radiological tumour size (P < 0.001), tumour site (P = 0.012), surgical technique (P < 0.001) and year of surgical resection (P < 0.001). Surgery performed before 2015 (OR 2.580, 95% c.i. 1.570 to 4.242; P < 0.001), radiological tumour diameter < 25.5 mm (OR 6.566, 95% c.i. 4.010 to 10.751; P < 0.001) and pancreatic body/tail localization (OR 1.908, 95% c.i. 1.119 to 3.253; P = 0.018) were identified as independent predictors of potential overtreatment. Radiological tumour size was the only independent determinant of potential undertreatment (OR 0.291, 95% c.i. 0.107 to 0.791; P = 0.016). Patients subjected to potential undertreatment exhibited significantly poorer disease-free survival (P < 0.001), overall survival (P < 0.001) and disease-specific survival (P < 0.001).
CONCLUSIONS: Potential overtreatment occurs in nearly one-third of patients undergoing surgery for non-functioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours. Tumour diameter emerges as the sole variable capable of predicting the risk of both potential surgical overtreatment and undertreatment.

The most recent (eighth) edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system divides invasive cutaneous melanoma into two broad groups: \"low-risk\" (stage IA-IIA) and \"high-risk\" (stage IIB-IV). While surveillance imaging for high-risk melanoma patients makes intuitive sense, supporting data are limited in that they are mostly respective and used varying methods, schedules, and endpoints. As a result, there is a lack of uniformity across different dermatologic and oncologic organizations regarding recommendations for follow-up, especially regarding imaging. That said, the bulk of retrospective and prospective data support imaging follow-up for high-risk patients. Currently, it seems that either positron emission tomography (PET) or whole-body computerized tomography (CT) are reasonable options for follow-up, with brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) preferred for the detection of brain metastases in patients who can undergo it. The current era of effective systemic therapies (ESTs), which can improve disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) beyond lead-time bias, has emphasized the role of imaging in detecting various patterns of EST response and treatment relapse, as well as the importance of radiologic tumor burden.

BACKGROUND: Fractionated stereotactic radiosurgery (fSRS) is an important treatment strategy for unresected brain metastases. We previously reported that a good volumetric response 6 months after fSRS can be the first step for local control. Few studies have reported the association between gross tumor volume (GTV) dose, volumetric response, and local control in patients treated with the same number of fractions. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to investigate the GTV dose and volumetric response 6 months after fSRS in five daily fractions and identify the predictive GTV dose for local failure (LF) for unresected brain metastasis.
METHODS: This retrospective study included 115 patients with 241 unresected brain metastases treated using fSRS in five daily fractions at our hospital between January 2013 and April 2022. The median prescription dose was 35 Gy (range, 30-35 Gy) in five fractions. The median follow-up time after fSRS was 16 months (range, 7-66 months).
RESULTS: GTV D80 > 42 Gy and GTV D98 > 39 Gy were prognostic factors for over 65% volume reduction (odds ratio, 3.68, p < 0.01; odds ratio, 4.68, p < 0.01, respectively). GTV D80 > 42 Gy was also a prognostic factor for LF (hazard ratio, 0.37; p = 0.01).
CONCLUSIONS: GTV D80 > 42 Gy in five fractions led to better volume reduction and local control. The goal of planning an inhomogeneous dose distribution for fSRS in brain metastases may be to increase the GTV D80 and GTV D98. Further studies on inhomogeneous dose distributions are required.

BACKGROUND: The metabolic tumour area (MTA) was found to be a promising predictor of prostate cancer. However, the role of MTA based on 18F-FDG PET/CT in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) prognosis remains unclear. This study aimed to elucidate the prognostic significance of MTA and evaluate its incremental value to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network International Prognostic Index (NCCN-IPI) for DLBCL patients treated with first-line R-CHOP regimens.
METHODS: A total of 280 consecutive patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL and baseline 18F-FDG PET/CT data were retrospectively evaluated. Lesions were delineated via a semiautomated segmentation method based on a 41% SUVmax threshold to estimate semiquantitative metabolic parameters such as total metabolic tumour volume (TMTV) and MTA. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the optimal cut-off values. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were the endpoints that were used to evaluate the prognosis. PFS and OS were estimated via Kaplan‒Meier curves and compared via the log-rank test.
RESULTS: Univariate analysis revealed that patients with high MTA, high TMTV and NCCN-IPI ≥ 4 were associated with inferior PFS and OS (P < 0.0001 for all). Multivariate analysis indicated that MTA remained an independent predictor of PFS and OS [hazard ratio (HR), 2.506; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.337-4.696; P = 0.004; and HR, 1.823; 95% CI, 1.005-3.310; P = 0.048], whereas TMTV was not. Further analysis using the NCCN-IPI model as a covariate revealed that MTA and NCCN-IPI were still independent predictors of PFS (HR, 2.617; 95% CI, 1.494-4.586; P = 0.001; and HR, 2.633; 95% CI, 1.650-4.203; P < 0.0001) and OS (HR, 2.021; 95% CI, 1.201-3.401; P = 0.008; and HR, 3.869; 95% CI, 1.959-7.640; P < 0.0001; respectively). Furthermore, MTA was used to separate patients with high NCCN-IPI risk scores into two groups with significantly different outcomes.
CONCLUSIONS: Pre-treatment MTA based on 18F-FDG PET/CT and NCCN-IPI were independent predictor of PFS and OS in DLBCL patients treated with R-CHOP. MTA has additional predictive value for the prognosis of patients with DLBCL, especially in high-risk patients with NCCN-IPI ≥ 4. In addition, the combination of MTA and NCCN-IPI may be helpful in further improving risk stratification and guiding individualised treatment options.
BACKGROUND: This research was retrospectively registered with the Ethics Committee of the Third Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, and the registration number was approval No. 155 (approved date: 31 May 2022).

BACKGROUND: Accurate tumor volume estimation is important for evaluating the response to radionuclide therapy and external beam radiotherapy as well as to other pharmaceuticals. A common method for monitoring the growth of subcutaneous tumors in pre-clinical models and assessing the treatment response is to measure the tumor length and width by external calipers to estimate its volume. This procedure relies on an assumption of a spheroidal tumor shape wherein the tumor depth equals the width and can yield considerably inaccuracies. Ultrasound imaging is a non-invasive technique that can measure all three axes of the tumor and might be an alternative to caliper measurement with potentially greater accuracy and comparable ease-of-use and throughput. Both 2D and 3D ultrasound imaging are possible, the former offering short scan times without the need for anesthesia and heating-valuable factors for longitudinal studies in large animal cohorts. Nevertheless, tumor volume estimation accuracy by 2D ultrasound imaging has seen limited investigation. In this study we have evaluated the accuracy of tumor volume estimation by caliper and 2D ultrasound with comparisons to reference measurements by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a pre-clinical model of prostate cancer treated with either external beam radiotherapy, radionuclide therapy, or no treatment.
RESULTS: Tumor volumes were measured longitudinally in 29 mice by caliper, ultrasound, and MRI before and after external beam radiotherapy, [177Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 radionuclide therapy, or no treatment. Caliper measurements had a marked bias, overestimating the tumor volumes by a median of 150% compared to MRI. Ultrasound measurements were markedly more accurate, with a median bias of -21% compared to MRI.
CONCLUSIONS: Ultrasound imaging is a reliable and accurate method for tumor volume estimation in pre-clinical models of radiotherapy, whereas caliper measurements are prone to overestimation.

UNASSIGNED: Accurate prognostic predictions and personalized decision-making on induction chemotherapy (IC) for individuals with locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LA-NPC) remain challenging. This research examined the predictive function of tumor burden-incorporated machine-learning algorithms for overall survival (OS) and their value in guiding treatment in patients with LA-NPC.
UNASSIGNED: Individuals with LA-NPC were reviewed retrospectively. Tumor burden signature-based OS prediction models were established using a nomogram and two machine-learning methods, the interpretable eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) risk prediction model, and DeepHit time-to-event neural network. The models\' prediction performances were compared using the concordance index (C-index) and the area under the curve (AUC). The patients were divided into two cohorts based on the risk predictions of the most successful model. The efficacy of IC combined with concurrent chemoradiotherapy was compared to that of chemoradiotherapy alone.
UNASSIGNED: The 1 221 eligible individuals, assigned to the training (n = 813) or validation (n = 408) set, showed significant respective differences in the C-indices of the XGBoost, DeepHit, and nomogram models (0.849 and 0.768, 0.811 and 0.767, 0.730 and 0.705). The training and validation sets had larger AUCs in the XGBoost and DeepHit models than the nomogram model in predicting OS (0.881 and 0.760, 0.845 and 0.776, and 0.764 and 0.729, P < 0.001). IC presented survival benefits in the XGBoost-derived high-risk but not low-risk group.
UNASSIGNED: This research used machine-learning algorithms to create and verify a comprehensive model integrating tumor burden with clinical variables to predict OS and determine which patients will most likely gain from IC. This model could be valuable for delivering patient counseling and conducting clinical evaluations.

BACKGROUND: The planification of radiation therapy (RT) for pancreatic cancer (PC) requires a dosimetric computed tomography (CT) scan to define the gross tumor volume (GTV). The main objective of this study was to compare the inter-observer variability in RT planning between the arterial and the venous phases following intravenous contrast.
METHODS: PANCRINJ was a prospective monocentric study that included twenty patients with non-metastatic PC. Patients underwent a pre-therapeutic CT scan at the arterial and venous phases. The delineation of the GTV was performed by one radiologist (gold standard) and two senior radiation oncologists (operators). The primary objective was to compare the Jaccard conformity index (JCI) for the GTVs computed between the GS (gold standard) and the operators between the arterial and the venous phases with a Wilcoxon signed rank test for paired samples. The secondary endpoints were the geographical miss index (GMI), the kappa index, the intra-operator variability, and the dose-volume histograms between the arterial and venous phases.
RESULTS: The median JCI for the arterial and venous phases were 0.50 (range, 0.17-0.64) and 0.41 (range, 0.23-0.61) (p = 0.10) respectively. The median GS-GTV was statistically significantly smaller compared to the operators at the arterial (p < 0.0001) and venous phases (p < 0.001), respectively. The GMI were low with few tumors missed for all patients with a median GMI of 0.07 (range, 0-0.79) and 0.05 (range, 0-0.39) at the arterial and venous phases, respectively (p = 0.15). There was a moderate agreement between the radiation oncologists with a median kappa index of 0.52 (range 0.38-0.57) on the arterial phase, and 0.52 (range 0.36-0.57) on the venous phase (p = 0.08). The intra-observer variability for GTV delineation was lower at the venous phase than at the arterial phase for the two operators. There was no significant difference between the arterial and the venous phases regarding the dose-volume histogram for the operators.
CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed inter- and intra-observer variability in delineating GTV for PC without significant differences between the arterial and the venous phases. The use of both phases should be encouraged. Our findings suggest the need to provide training for radiation oncologists in pancreatic imaging and to collaborate within a multidisciplinary team.

This study aims to assess the predictive capability of cylindrical Tumor Growth Rate (cTGR) in the prediction of early progression of well-differentiated gastro-entero-pancreatic tumours after Radio Ligand Therapy (RLT), compared to the conventional TGR. Fifty-eight patients were included and three CT scans per patient were collected at baseline, during RLT, and follow-up. RLT response, evaluated at follow-up according to RECIST 1.1, was calculated as a percentage variation of lesion diameters over time (continuous values) and as four different RECIST classes. TGR between baseline and interim CT was computed using both conventional (approximating lesion volume to a sphere) and cylindrical (called cTGR, approximating lesion volume to an elliptical cylinder) formulations. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were employed for Progressive Disease class prediction, revealing that cTGR outperformed conventional TGR (area under the ROC equal to 1.00 and 0.92, respectively). Multivariate analysis confirmed the superiority of cTGR in predicting continuous RLT response, with a higher coefficient for cTGR (1.56) compared to the conventional one (1.45). This study serves as a proof of concept, paving the way for future clinical trials to incorporate cTGR as a valuable tool for assessing RLT response.