BACKGROUND: Mathematical models of HIV have been uniquely important in directing and evaluating HIV policy. Transgender and nonbinary people are disproportionately impacted by HIV; however, few mathematical models of HIV transmission have been published that are inclusive of transgender and nonbinary populations. This commentary discusses current structural challenges to developing robust and accurate trans-inclusive models and identifies opportunities for future research and policy, with a focus on examples from the United States.
CONCLUSIONS: As of April 2024, only seven published mathematical models of HIV transmission include transgender people. Existing models have several notable limitations and biases that limit their utility for informing public health intervention. Notably, no models include transgender men or nonbinary individuals, despite these populations being disproportionately impacted by HIV relative to cisgender populations. In addition, existing mathematical models of HIV transmission do not accurately represent the sexual network of transgender people. Data availability and quality remain a significant barrier to the development of accurate trans-inclusive mathematical models of HIV. Using a community-engaged approach, we developed a modelling framework that addresses the limitations of existing model and to highlight how data availability and quality limit the utility of mathematical models for transgender populations.
CONCLUSIONS: Modelling is an important tool for HIV prevention planning and a key step towards informing public health interventions, programming and policies for transgender populations. Our modelling framework underscores the importance of accurate trans-inclusive data collection methodologies, since the relevance of these analyses for informing public health decision-making is strongly dependent on the validity of the model parameterization and calibration targets. Adopting gender-inclusive and gender-specific approaches starting from the development and data collection stages of research can provide insights into how interventions, programming and policies can distinguish unique health needs across all gender groups. Moreover, in light of the data structure limitations, designing longitudinal surveillance data systems and probability samples will be critical to fill key research gaps, highlight progress and provide additional rigour to the current evidence. Investments and initiatives like Ending the HIV Epidemic in the United States can be further expanded and are highly needed to prioritize and value transgender populations across funding structures, goals and outcome measures.

BACKGROUND: UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals for HIV have been surpassed in the UK, with focus now moving to ending transmission by 2030. The concept of zero transmission is complex and many factors can influence transmission. We aimed to investigate how the target of zero transmission might be reached in the UK.
METHODS: We developed a de novo Markov state transition open cohort model of HIV with a 50-year time horizon, which models six key screening, treatment and prevention parameters, including treatment-as-prevention (TasP) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We studied the anticipated HIV epidemic trajectory over time in men who have sex with men (MSM), with and without changing the six key parameters, defining zero transmission as a 60% reduction in incidence compared with 2010 incidence.
RESULTS: Zero transmission in the MSM population was not achieved within the model\'s time horizon in our base case scenario, when the six key parameters were set to their 2019 values. Several future scenarios were explored, including a combination approach to preventing HIV transmission through increasing five key parameter values and considering three different TasP values; zero transmission was achieved by 2030 in the scenario where TasP was increased from its current level of 97-99%, avoiding 48,969 new HIV cases over the time horizon and reducing the lifetime risk of acquiring HIV for HIV-negative MSM not using PrEP from 13.65 to 7.53%.
CONCLUSIONS: Zero transmission in the UK MSM population can be reached by the target year of 2030 with bold changes to HIV policy. A combination approach such as the UK Government\'s \'Towards Zero\' Action plan, impacting multiple policies and including an increase in TasP, has the potential to achieve meaningful reductions in HIV transmission and meet this ambitious goal.

In 1987, Louisiana became one of the first states to put laws in place to criminalize intentional HIV exposure. Unfortunately, the law does not correlate with science nor does it evidence any effectiveness in reductions in HIV transmissions. In spite of this, it took over 30 years before Louisiana\'s HIV exposure criminalization law was amended to be more scientifically accurate. There remains little research to determine the impact this policy has on public health efforts to reduce transmissions of HIV. This article will apply the social construction of target populations theory to Louisiana\'s HIV exposure criminalization law to explore the reasons for the action and inaction that led to the introduction and promotes the continued use of a law that does not demonstrate any effectiveness in actually reducing rates of HIV transmissions.

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The last decade has seen rapid evolution in guidance from the WHO concerning the provision of HIV services along the diagnosis-to-treatment continuum, but the extent to which these recommendations are adopted as national policies in Kenya, and subsequently implemented in health facilities, is not well understood. Identifying gaps in policy coverage and implementation is important for highlighting areas for improving service delivery, leading to better health outcomes. We compared WHO guidance with national policies for HIV testing and counselling, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, HIV treatment and retention in care. We then investigated implementation of these national policies in health facilities in one rural (Kisumu) and one urban (Nairobi) sites in Kenya. Implementation was documented using structured questionnaires that were administered to in-charge staff at 10 health facilities in Nairobi and 34 in Kisumu. Policies were defined as widely implemented if they were reported to occur in > 70% facilities, partially implemented if reported to occur in 30-70% facilities, and having limited implementation if reported to occur in < 30% facilities. Overall, Kenyan national HIV care and treatment policies were well aligned with WHO guidance. Policies promoting access to treatment and retention in care were widely implemented, but there was partial or limited implementation of several policies promoting access to HIV testing, and the more recent policy of Option B+ for HIV-positive pregnant women. Efforts are needed to improve implementation of policies designed to increase rates of diagnosis, thus facilitating entry into HIV care, if morbidity and mortality burdens are to be further reduced in Kenya, and as the country moves towards universal access to antiretroviral therapy.

The roll out of antiretroviral therapy in Botswana, as in many countries with near universal access to treatment, has transformed HIV into a complex yet manageable chronic condition and has led to the emergence of a population aging with HIV. Although there has been some realization of this development at international level, no clear defined intervention strategy has been established in many highly affected countries. Therefore we explored attitudes of policy-makers and service providers towards HIV among older adults (50 years or older) in Botswana.
We conducted qualitative face-to-face interviews with 15 consenting personnel from the Ministry of Health, medical practitioners and non-governmental organizations involved in the administration of medical services, planning, strategies and policies that govern social, physical and medical intervention aimed at people living with HIV and health in general. The Shiffman and Smith Framework of how health issues become a priority was used as a guide for our analysis.
Amidst an HIV prevalence of 25% among those aged 50-64 years, the respondents passively recognized the predicament posed by a population aging with HIV but exhibited a lack of comprehension and acknowledgement of the extent of the issue. An underlying persistent ageist stigma regarding sexual behaviour existed among a number of interviewees. Respondents also noted the lack of defined geriatric care within the provision of the national health care system. There seemed, however, to be a debate among the policy strategists and care providers as to whether the appropriate response should be specifically towards older adults living with HIV or rather to improve health services for older adults more generally. Respondents acknowledged that health systems in Botswana are still configured for individual diseases rather than coexisting chronic diseases even though it has become increasingly common for patients, particularly the aged, to have two or more medical conditions at the same time.
HIV among older adults remains a low priority among policy-makers in Botswana but is at least now on the agenda. Action will require more concerted efforts to recognize HIV as a lifelong infection and putting greater emphasis on targeted care for older adults, focussing on multimorbidity.

BACKGROUND: Only an estimated 54% of people living with HIV are aware of their status. Despite progress scaling up HIV testing services (HTS), a testing gap remains. Delivery of HTS by lay providers may help close this testing gap, while also increasing uptake and acceptability of HIV testing among key populations and other priority groups.
METHODS: 50 National HIV testing policies were collated from WHO country intelligence databases, contacts and testing program websites. Data regarding lay provider use for HTS was extracted and collated. Our search had no geographical or language restrictions. This data was then compared with reported data from the Global AIDS Response Progress Reporting (GARPR) from July 2015.
RESULTS: Forty-two percent of countries permit lay providers to perform HIV testing and 56% permit lay providers to administer pre-and post-test counseling. Comparative analysis with GARPR found that less than half (46%) of reported data from countries were consistent with their corresponding national HIV testing policy.
CONCLUSIONS: Given the low uptake of lay provider use globally and their proven use in increasing HIV testing, countries should consider revising policies to support lay provider testing using rapid diagnostic tests.

Individual factors associated with HIV testing have been studied across multiple populations; however, testing is not just an individual-level phenomenon. This secondary analysis of 2005 and 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey data was conducted to determine the extent to which the 2007 institution of an opt-out policy of HIV testing during antenatal care increased testing among women, and whether effects differed by women\'s stigmatizing beliefs about HIV. A logit model with interaction between pre-/post-policy year and policy exposure (birth in the past year) was used to estimate the increased probability of past-year testing, which may be attributable to the policy. Results suggested the policy contributed to a nine-point increase in the probability of testing (95% CI 0.06-0.13, p < 0.0001). A three-way interaction was used to compare the effects of exposure to the policy among women holding higher and lower HIV stigmatizing beliefs. The increase in the probability of past-year testing was 16 percentage points greater among women with lower stigmatizing beliefs (95% CI 0.06-0.27, p = 0.002). Women with higher stigmatizing beliefs were less likely to report attending antenatal care (ANC), testing at their last ANC visit, or being offered a test at their last ANC visit. We encourage researchers and practitioners to explore interventions that operate at multiple levels of socio-ecological spheres of influence, addressing both stigma and structural barriers to testing, in order to achieve the greatest results in preventing HIV.