BACKGROUND: UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals for HIV have been surpassed in the UK, with focus now moving to ending transmission by 2030. The concept of zero transmission is complex and many factors can influence transmission. We aimed to investigate how the target of zero transmission might be reached in the UK.
METHODS: We developed a de novo Markov state transition open cohort model of HIV with a 50-year time horizon, which models six key screening, treatment and prevention parameters, including treatment-as-prevention (TasP) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We studied the anticipated HIV epidemic trajectory over time in men who have sex with men (MSM), with and without changing the six key parameters, defining zero transmission as a 60% reduction in incidence compared with 2010 incidence.
RESULTS: Zero transmission in the MSM population was not achieved within the model\'s time horizon in our base case scenario, when the six key parameters were set to their 2019 values. Several future scenarios were explored, including a combination approach to preventing HIV transmission through increasing five key parameter values and considering three different TasP values; zero transmission was achieved by 2030 in the scenario where TasP was increased from its current level of 97-99%, avoiding 48,969 new HIV cases over the time horizon and reducing the lifetime risk of acquiring HIV for HIV-negative MSM not using PrEP from 13.65 to 7.53%.
CONCLUSIONS: Zero transmission in the UK MSM population can be reached by the target year of 2030 with bold changes to HIV policy. A combination approach such as the UK Government\'s \'Towards Zero\' Action plan, impacting multiple policies and including an increase in TasP, has the potential to achieve meaningful reductions in HIV transmission and meet this ambitious goal.

HIV self-testing (HIVST) has been found to have high acceptability among men who have sex with men (MSM) internationally and might contribute to increase testing frequencies, but many countries, including Sweden, lack policies for using HIVST.
To examine interest to use and willingness to pay for HIVST, and associated factors, among MSM attending HIV testing venues in Sweden.
This cross-sectional study analyzed data from a self-administered survey, consisting of 33 questions, collected at six HIV testing venues in Sweden in 2018. The sample consisted of sexually active men who have sex with men, aged ≥ 18 years, and not diagnosed with HIV. Data were analyzed descriptively and by univariable and multivariable logistic regression.
Among 663 participants (median age 33 years), 436 respondents (65.8%) expressed interest to use HIVST. Among those interested, less than half, 205 (47.0%), were willing to pay for HIVST. Being interested in HIVST was found to be negatively associated with being in the 55 years or older age group (AOR 0.31, CI 0.14-0.71), and having had syphilis, rectal chlamydia, or rectal gonorrhea in the preceding 12 months (AOR 0.56, CI 0.32-0.99). In the sample of MSM interested in HIVST, willingness to pay was positively associated with being in the age groups 35-44 years (AOR 2.94, CI 1.40-6.21), 45-54 years (AOR 2.82, CI 1.16-6.90), and 55 years or above (AOR 3.90, CI 1.19-12.81), and negatively associated with being single (AOR 0.56, CI 0.36-0.88).
This study found high interest for HIVST in a sample of MSM in Sweden. However, HIVST offered at a cost is likely to negatively affect uptake among MSM broadly, compared with free availability.