阿富汗战争在其社会的各个领域都留下了重大的负面影响,导致这个国家陷入最高水平的贫困,饥饿,和环境破坏。本研究使用环境库兹涅茨曲线的概念框架和增加污染物的模型,探讨了内战对阿富汗环境退化的长期影响。内战,综合金融发展指数,以及从2002年第一季度到2020年第一季度的一组数据的宏观经济预测指标。然而,虽然结果通过自回归分布滞后约束检验证实了指标之间的长期关系,格兰杰因果关系向量误差修正模型的结果揭示了二氧化碳排放之间的双向因果关系,人均实际国内生产总值,内战,金融发展指数,能源消耗,贸易开放,从长远来看,通货膨胀率,而研究结果在短期内证实了预测因子之间的多维性和相互依存性。此外,结果表明双重发现。首先,它证实了内战,金融发展指数,人均实际国内生产总值,人口增长,通货膨胀率显著增加了二氧化碳排放量,而人均实际国内生产总值的平方,能源消耗,从短期和长期来看,贸易开放都会减少二氧化碳的排放。第二,结果证实了倒U型关系,支持阿富汗环境库兹涅茨曲线假说的有效性。根据调查结果,建议采取适当的政策措施。
The war in Afghanistan left significantly negative consequences in all spheres of its society, leading the country to the highest levels of poverty, hunger, and environmental damage. This study explores the long-run impact of civil wars on environmental degradation in Afghanistan using the conceptual framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve and models augmented with pollutants, civil wars, comprehensive financial development index, and macroeconomic predictors on a set of data from the first quarter of 2002 to the first quarter of 2020. However, while the results confirm long-run relationships amid indicators by the autoregressive distributed lags bound test, the results of the vector error-correcting model to Granger causality reveal bidirectional causality links between CO2 emissions, per capita real GDP, civil wars, the financial development index, energy consumption, trade openness, and the inflation rate in the long-run, while the findings extend to confirm multidimensionality and interdependencies among predictors in the short-run. Moreover, the results indicate dual findings. First, it confirms that civil wars, the financial development index, per capita real gross domestic product, population growth, and the inflation rate significantly increase CO2 emissions, while the squared per capita real gross domestic product, energy consumption, and trade openness reduce CO2 emissions both in the short and long runs. Second, the results confirm an inverted U-shaped relationship, supporting the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Afghanistan. Based on the findings, appropriate policy measures are recommended.