作为IUCN极度脆弱的物种,近年来,印度太平洋座头海豚(Sousachinensis)引起了公众的极大关注。人类干扰和环境污染对该人群的威胁已得到广泛记录。然而,缺乏对该物种对气候变化的敏感性的研究。为了解气候变化对苏木潜在分布的影响,我们基于82个发生记录和6个预测变量开发了一个加权集成模型(例如,海洋深度,到岸边的距离,平均温度,盐度,冰厚度,和当前速度)。根据真实技能统计(TSS)和受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC),我们的集成模型比大多数单算法模型具有更高的预测精度。它还表明,海洋深度和到海岸的距离是塑造分布模式的最重要预测因素。我们的合奏模型对2050年代和2100年代的预测表明,气候变化对Sousachinensis栖息地产生了严重的不利影响。在2050年代和2100年代,在所有代表性的浓度途径排放情景(RCPS)中,超过75%和80%的合适栖息地将丢失。分别。随着近年来苏沙搁浅和死亡记录的增加,迫切需要严格的管理法规和保护计划,以保护当前合适的栖息地。由于栖息地的收缩和未来的极地转移,适应性管理策略,包括根据南沙的地理分布,设计新的保护区,调整保护区的位置和范围,应该制定以尽量减少气候变化对该物种的影响。
As IUCN critically vulnerable species,the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) have attracted great public attention in recent years. The threats of human disturbance and environmental pollution to this population have been documented extensively. However, research on the sensitivity of this species to climate change is lacking. To understand the effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Sousa chinensis, we developed a weighted ensemble model based on 82 occurrence records and six predictor variables (e.g., ocean depth, distance to shore, mean temperature, salinity, ice thickness, and current velocity). According to the true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), our ensemble model presented higher prediction precision than most of the single-algorithm models. It also indicated that ocean depth and distance to shore were the most important predictors in shaping the distribution patterns. The projections for the 2050s and 2100s from our ensemble model indicated a severe adverse impact of climate change on the Sousa chinensis habitat. Over 75% and 80% of the suitable habitat in the present day will be lost in all representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCPS) in the 2050s and 2100s, respectively. With the increased numbers of records of stranding and deaths of Sousa chinensis in recent years, strict management regulations and conservation plans are urgent to safeguard the current suitable habitats. Due to habitat contraction and poleward shift in the future, adaptive management strategies, including designing new reserves and adjusting the location and range of reserves according to the geographical distribution of Sousa chinensis, should be formulated to minimize the impacts of climate change on this species.