背景:院内心脏骤停(IHCA)是一种高致死率的急性疾病,给个人带来负担,社会,和经济。这项研究旨在使用常规实验室参数开发机器学习(ML)模型,以预测接受抢救治疗的患者的IHCA风险。
方法:这项回顾性队列研究检查了解放军总医院第一医学中心住院的所有抢救患者,中国,从2016年1月到2020年12月。五种机器学习算法,包括支持向量机,随机森林,额外树分类器(ETC),决策树,和逻辑回归算法,被训练来开发预测IHCA的模型。我们包括了血细胞计数,生化标志物,和模型开发中的凝血标志物。我们使用五次交叉验证验证了模型性能,并使用Shapley加法扩展(SHAP)进行了模型解释。
结果:共有11,308名参与者被纳入研究,其中有7779名患者。在这些患者中,发生IHCA1796例(23.09%)。在预测IHCA的五种机器学习模型中,ETC算法表现出更好的性能,AUC为0.920,与五重交叉验证中的其他四种机器学习模型相比。SHAP显示,在接受抢救治疗的患者中,导致心脏骤停的十大因素是凝血酶原活性,血小板,血红蛋白,N末端脑钠肽前体,中性粒细胞,凝血酶原时间,血清白蛋白,钠,活化部分凝血活酶时间,钾。
结论:我们开发了一种可靠的机器学习衍生模型,该模型整合了现成的实验室参数来预测接受抢救治疗的患者的IHCA。
BACKGROUND: In-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) is an acute disease with a high fatality rate that burdens individuals, society, and the economy. This study aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model using routine laboratory parameters to predict the risk of IHCA in rescue-treated patients.
METHODS: This retrospective cohort study examined all rescue-treated patients hospitalized at the First Medical Center of the PLA General Hospital in Beijing,
China, from January 2016 to December 2020. Five machine learning algorithms, including support vector machine, random forest, extra trees classifier (ETC), decision tree, and logistic regression algorithms, were trained to develop models for predicting IHCA. We included blood counts, biochemical markers, and coagulation markers in the model development. We validated model performance using fivefold cross-validation and used the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) for model interpretation.
RESULTS: A total of 11,308 participants were included in the study, of which 7779 patients remained. Among these patients, 1796 (23.09%) cases of IHCA occurred. Among five machine learning models for predicting IHCA, the ETC algorithm exhibited better performance, with an AUC of 0.920, compared with the other four machine learning models in the fivefold cross-validation. The SHAP showed that the top ten factors accounting for cardiac arrest in rescue-treated patients are prothrombin activity, platelets, hemoglobin, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, neutrophils, prothrombin time, serum albumin, sodium, activated partial thromboplastin time, and potassium.
CONCLUSIONS: We developed a reliable machine learning-derived model that integrates readily available laboratory parameters to predict IHCA in patients treated with rescue therapy.