high risk

高风险
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    尽管新型治疗方法的显著进步延长了多发性骨髓瘤(MM)患者的生存期,细胞遗传学高危新诊断MM(NDMM)的不良预后仍然是棘手的,因为对于维持治疗方案的选择缺乏共识.因此,这项研究的目的是检查各种维持治疗对这一组处于危险中的患者的有效性。总的来说,网络荟萃分析中纳入了17项研究,其中包括1937例NDMM高危患者。涉及新药的联合疗法在维持阶段呈现出令人鼓舞的前景。而应用不同方案的患者和情况仍需进一步区分和澄清。探讨临床上高危NDMM患者的维持治疗现状,一个现实世界的高风险NDMM队列回顾性纳入了80例接受来那度胺维持治疗的患者和53例接受硼替佐米维持治疗的患者,显示31.7个月和30.4个月的中位PFS,分别为(p=0.874,HR=0.966,95%CI:0.628-1.486)。总的来说,这项研究阐明了目前常规治疗方法在高危NDMM患者维持阶段的局限性,同时强调了与整合新型药物的强化治疗方案相关的未来潜力.
    Although the significant strides in novel therapeutic approaches have prolonged the survival of multiple myeloma (MM) patients, the unfavorable prognosis of cytogenetically high-risk newly diagnosed MM (NDMM) remains intractable with the lack of consensus regarding the choice of maintenance regimens. Therefore, this study was initiated with the aim of examining the effectiveness of various maintenance treatments for this group of patients in jeopardy. Overall, 17 studies with 1937 high-risk NDMM patients were included in the network meta-analysis. Combination therapies involving novel drugs presented encouraging prospects in the maintenance phase, while the patients and circumstances for the application of different regimens still needed to be further distinguished and clarified. To investigate the current status of maintenance therapy of high-risk NDMM patients in clinical practice, a real-world cohort of high-risk NDMM was retrospectively incorporated 80 patients with lenalidomide maintenance and 53 patients with bortezomib maintenance, presenting the median PFS of 31.7 months and 30.4 months, respectively (p = 0.874, HR = 0.966, 95% CI: 0.628-1.486). Collectively, this study illuminated the present constraints of conventional approaches during the maintenance phase for high-risk NDMM patients while highlighting the future potential associated with enhanced regimens integrating novel medications.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    对2015年至2021年接受手术治疗的甲状腺患者的组织样本进行了低覆盖率全基因组测序。通过对甲状腺癌患者CD147蛋白表达水平与临床特征的相关性分析,探讨CD147蛋白在甲状腺癌中的潜在生物学意义。对提取的DNA样品进行低覆盖全基因组测序。使用拷贝数分析软件对测序数据进行分析,计算CD147基因的拷贝数,进一步验证CD147基因的表达,并分析其与临床特征的关系。在内部队列中评估CIN与高风险之间的关系。CIN与无病生存率的关联在癌症基因组图谱计划的队列中得到了验证。甲状腺球蛋白在调节甲状腺功能和维持正常代谢率中起关键作用。通过对这项研究的组织样本进行测序,我们可以更深入地了解cin与甲状腺疾病之间的关系。MultipleCIN组的高危患者比例(77.8%)明显高于22q阴性组(31.3%),BRAFV600E组(22.2%)和全体阴性组(25.0%;p=0.043)。
    Low-coverage whole genome sequencing was performed for tissue samples from thyroid patients who received surgery treatment from 2015 to 2021. The potential biological significance of CD147 protein in thyroid cancer was explored through correlation analysis of CD147 protein expression level and clinical features of thyroid cancer patients. Low coverage whole genome sequencing was performed on the extracted DNA samples. The copy number analysis software was used to analyze the sequencing data, calculate the copy number of CD147 gene, further verify the expression of CD147 gene, and analyze its association with clinical features. The relationship between CIN and high risk was evaluated in the internal cohort. The association of CIN with the disease-free survival was validated in the cohort from The Cancer Genome Atlas Program. Thyroglobulin plays a key role in regulating thyroid function and maintaining normal metabolic rate. By sequencing tissue samples from this study, we can gain a deeper understanding of the association between cin and thyroid disease. The percentage of high risk patients in the multiple CIN group (77.8 %) was significantly higher than that in the 22q negative group (31.3 %), BRAF V600E group (22.2 %) and all negative group (25.0 %; p = 0.043).
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    OncotypeDX(ODX)复发评分(RS),21基因检测,已被证明能够识别复发风险高(RS≥26)的患者,这些患者将从化疗中获益。然而,它具有有限的可用性和高成本。因此,我们的研究旨在识别超声(US)成像生物标志物,并开发用于识别具有高ODXRS的患者的预测模型。
    在这项回顾性研究中,我们对激素受体阳性和人表皮生长因子受体2(HER2)阴性的T1-3N0-1M0乳腺癌患者的ODXRS进行了回顾.2012年5月和2015年12月接受治疗的患者被纳入训练队列,2016年1月至2017年1月接受治疗的患者被纳入验证队列.收集临床病理资料,和术前US扫描进行分析。进行单变量和多变量回归分析,以评估训练队列中乳腺癌高风险的独立预测因子。并绘制了列线图,并用受试者工作特征曲线(AUC)下的面积进行评估,校正曲线,和决策曲线分析(DCA)。
    共有363名患者在训练队列中,160名患者在验证队列中,高RS(RS26-100)的比例为14%和13.1%,分别。回声光环,增强的后回声,低水平的孕激素受体(PR),高Ki-67指数为高RS的独立危险因素(P值均<0.05)。列线图是基于组合模型构建的,显示出比临床病理模型更好的辨别能力[组合模型:AUC=0.95,95%置信区间(CI):0.93-0.97;临床病理模型:AUC=0.89,95%CI:0.86-0.92;P=0.001]和根据DCA的更大的临床获益。此外,在验证队列中发现列线图有效(AUC=0.90,95%CI:0.84-0.94),尤其是T1N0M0期患者(AUC=0.91,95%CI:0.84-0.95)。
    US特征可作为预测T1-3N0-1M0乳腺癌和激素受体(HR)阳性和HER2阴性患者高复发风险的有价值的影像学生物标志物。包含PR状态的列线图,Ki-67指数,和US影像学生物标志物在早期选择复发风险高的患者中显示出良好的辨别能力,尤其是那些患有T1N0M0期疾病的患者。
    UNASSIGNED: The Oncotype DX (ODX) recurrence score (RS), a 21-gene assay, has been proven to recognize patients at high risk of recurrence (RS ≥26) who would benefit from chemotherapy. However, it has limited availability and high costs. Our study thus aimed to identify ultrasound (US) imaging biomarkers and develop a prediction model for identifying patients with a high ODX RS.
    UNASSIGNED: In this retrospective study, consecutive patients with T1-3N0-1M0 breast cancer who were hormone receptor positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) negative who had an available ODX RS were reviewed. Patients treated from May 2012 and December 2015 were placed into a training cohort, and those treated from January 2016 to January 2017 were placed in a validation cohort. Clinicopathologic data were collected, and preoperative US scans were analyzed. Univariable and multivariable regression analyses were performed to evaluate the independent predictors for a high-risk of breast cancer in the training cohort, and a nomogram was developed and evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 363 patients were in the training cohort and 160 in the validation cohort, with the proportion with a high RS (RS 26-100) being 14% and 13.1%, respectively. Echogenic halo, enhanced posterior echo, low level of progesterone receptor (PR), and high Ki-67 index were identified as independent risk factors for high RS (all P values <0.05). The nomogram was constructed based on the combined model, which showed a better discrimination ability than did the clinicopathological model [combined model: AUC =0.95, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93-0.97; clinicopathological model: AUC =0.89, 95% CI: 0.86-0.92; P=0.001] and greater clinical benefit according to DCA. Furthermore, the nomogram was found to be effective in the validation cohort (AUC =0.90, 95% CI: 0.84-0.94), especially in patients with stage T1N0M0 disease (AUC =0.91, 95% CI: 0.84-0.95).
    UNASSIGNED: US features may serve as valuable imaging biomarkers for the prediction of high recurrence risk in patients with T1-3N0-1M0 breast cancer and hormone receptor (HR)-positive and HER2-negative status. A nomogram incorporating PR status, Ki-67 index, and US imaging biomarkers showed a good discrimination ability in the early selection of patients at high risk of recurrence, especially in those with stage T1N0M0 disease.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项研究旨在评估非侵入性产前检测(NIPT)在检测孕妇胎儿染色体疾病中的性能。
    从10月1日起,2017年,至12月31日,2022年,共收集15304个无浆细胞DNA-NIPT样品用于胎儿染色体疾病筛查。NIPT的结果通过验证性侵入性测试或临床结果随访得到验证。Further,低风险和高风险人群之间的NIPT表现,以及单胎妊娠和双胎妊娠组进行比较。此外,对111例假阳性病例进行分析。
    完全,对15,086个合格的静脉血样本进行了NIPT,其中179例(1.19%)NIPT结果为阳性,68例通过确证性侵入性试验或临床结局随访进一步验证为真阳性.对于常见的染色体非整倍性,性染色体异常(SCA)和其他染色体非整倍体,NIPT的检测灵敏度均为100%,特异性为99.87%,99.70%,和99.68%,阳性预测值(PPVs)为65.45%,31.82%,10.91%,分别。在2987名高风险和12,099名低风险受试者中,没有观察到检测性能的统计学差异,以及单胎和双胎妊娠受试者。111例假阳性病例的胎儿游离DNA浓度范围为5.5%至33.7%,高于NIPT的最低要求。
    有了严格的协议,在大规模的临床服务中,NIPT对检测胎儿染色体异常具有很高的敏感性和特异性,帮助改善整体妊娠管理。
    UNASSIGNED: This study was to evaluate the performance of noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT) in detecting fetal chromosome disorders in pregnant women.
    UNASSIGNED: From October 1st, 2017, to December 31th, 2022, a total of 15,304 plasma cell free DNA-NIPT samples were collected for fetal chromosome disorders screening. The results of NIPT were validated by confirmatory invasive testing or clinical outcome follow-up. Further, NIPT performance between low-risk and high-risk groups, as well as singleton pregnancy and twin pregnancy groups was compared. Besides, analysis of 111 false-positive cases was performed.
    UNASSIGNED: Totally, NIPT was performed on 15,086 eligible venous blood samples, of which 179 (1.19%) showed positive NIPT results and 68 were further validated to be true positive samples via confirmatory invasive testing or follow-up of clinical outcomes. For common chromosome aneuploidies, sex chromosome abnormalities (SCA) and other chromosomal aneuploidies, the detection sensitivities of NIPT were all 100%, the specificities were 99.87%, 99.70%, and 99.68% and the positive predictive values (PPVs) were 65.45%, 31.82%, and 10.91%, respectively. No statistically significant variance in detection performance was observed among 2987 high-risk and 12,099 low-risk subjects, as well as singleton and twin pregnancy subjects. The concentration of cell-free fetal DNA of 111 false-positive cases ranged from 5.5% to 33.7%, which was higher than the minimum requirement of NIPT.
    UNASSIGNED: With stringent protocol, NIPT shows high sensitivity and specificity for detecting fetal chromosome disorders in a large-scale clinical service, helping improving overall pregnancy management.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    比较肝动脉灌注化疗(HAIC)与经动脉化疗栓塞(TACE)治疗高危肝细胞癌(hHCC)患者的疗效和安全性。
    在2014年1月至2022年8月之间,共审查了1765例接受初始动脉内治疗的hHCC连续患者,并将其分为TACE组(n,507)和HAIC组(n,426).该研究使用倾向评分匹配(PSM)来减少选择性偏差。使用Kaplan-Meier曲线和Log秩检验比较总生存期(OS)和无进展生存期(PFS)。客观反应率(ORR),对两组患者的中转手术率(CSR)不良事件(AE)进行比较和亚组分析.
    PSM1:1后,将444例患者分为两组。接受HAIC的hHCC患者的中位PFS较高(6.1vs3.3个月,P<0.001)和OS(10.3vs8.2个月,P=0.303)比TACE。HAIC组ORR(24.8%vs11.7%)和CSR(15.5%vs8.9%)高于TACE组(均P<0.05)。TACE和HAIC组3/4级不良事件发生率分别为23.9%和8.1%,分别。亚组分析表明,HAIC似乎对肿瘤直径超过10厘米的患者特别有益(风险比[HR],0.6;95%CI,0.47-0.77;p,0.00)和PVTTVp4(HR,0.56;95%CI,0.39-0.8;P,0.01)的PFS表现优于TACE。
    HAIC可以为hHCC提供比cTACE更好的疾病控制,具有可比的长期操作系统和安全性。
    UNASSIGNED: To compare the efficacy and safety of hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for the treatment of high-risk hepatocellular carcinoma (hHCC) patients.
    UNASSIGNED: Between January 2014 and August 2022, a total of 1765 consecutive patients with hHCC who underwent initial intra-arterial therapies were reviewed and divided into a TACE group (n, 507) and a HAIC group (n, 426). The study used propensity score matching (PSM) to reduce selectivity bias. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were compared using Kaplan‒Meier curves with the Log rank test. The objective response rate (ORR), conversion surgery rate (CSR) adverse event (AE) comparison and subgroup analysis were performed between the two groups.
    UNASSIGNED: After PSM 1:1, 444 patients were divided into two groups. The patients with hHCC who received HAIC had higher median PFS (6.1 vs 3.3 months, P < 0.001) and OS (10.3 vs 8.2 months, P=0.303) than TACE. Higher ORR (24.8% vs 11.7%) and CSR (15.5% vs 8.9%) were found in the HAIC group than in the TACE group (both P < 0.05). The incidence of grade 3/4 AE was 23.9% and 8.1% in the TACE and HAIC groups, respectively. The subgroup analysis suggest that HAIC appeared to particularly benefit patients with tumor diameter of more than 10 centimeters (hazard ratio [HR], 0.6; 95% CI, 0.47-0.77; p, 0.00) and PVTT Vp4 (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.39-0.8; P, 0.01) for PFS outperforming TACE.
    UNASSIGNED: HAIC can provide better disease control for hHCC than cTACE, with a comparable long-term OS and safety.
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  • 文章类型: English Abstract
    Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) in young patients with high-risk multiple myeloma (HRMM) and analyzed the factors affecting patient prognosis. Methods: In this retrospective study, we analyzed the clinical data of 14 patients with HRMM with cytogenetic abnormalities or high-risk biological factors who underwent allo-HSCT at the Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Center of the Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital between November 2016 and November 2022. Results: There were seven males and seven females included in the study, with a median age of 39.5 (31-50) years at the time of allo-HSCT. The median number of treatment lines before transplantation was 2 (1-6) . Before allo-HSCT, 42.9% (6/14) of the patients did not achieve complete remission, while 35.7% (5/14) of the patients achieved measurable residual disease positivity. After transplantation, all patients were evaluated for their treatment response, and the overall response rate was 100% (14/14) . All 14 patients successfully underwent allo-HSCT, with median engraftment times for neutrophils and platelets of 11 (10-14) days and 13 (9-103) days, respectively. Acute grade Ⅱ-Ⅳ graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) occurred in five patients (35.7%) , and two patients (14.3%) developed moderate-to-severe chronic GVHD. The median follow-up time after allo-HSCT was 18.93 (4.10-72.53) months, with an expected 2-year transplant-related mortality rate of 7.1% (95% CI 0%-21.1%) and an expected 2-year overall survival rate of 92.9% (95% CI 80.3%-100.0%) . Moreover, the expected 1-year and 2-year progression-free survival rates were 92.9% (95% CI 80.3%-100.0%) and 66.0% (95% CI 39.4%-100.0%) , respectively, and the 2-year cumulative incidence of relapse was 28.9% (95% CI 0%-56.7%) . Upfront allo-HSCT following complete remission after induced therapy and the presence of chronic GVHD might be favorable prognostic factors. Conclusion: allo-HSCT is an effective treatment for improving the prognosis of young patients with HRMM.
    目的: 观察异基因造血干细胞移植(allo-HSCT)对年轻(≤50岁)高危多发性骨髓瘤(HRMM)患者的疗效。 方法: 纳入2016年11月至2022年11月期间于中国医学科学院血液病医院造血干细胞移植中心接受allo-HSCT的14例具有高危细胞遗传学改变或高危疾病生物学因素的年轻(≤50岁)HRMM患者,对其临床资料进行回顾性分析。 结果: 14例患者中,男7例,女7例,移植时中位年龄为39.5(31~50)岁。患者移植前中位治疗线数为2(1~6)线,移植前6例患者未达完全缓解(CR),5例患者微小残留病(MRD)阳性。14例患者均获得造血重建,中性粒细胞、血小板中位植入时间分别为11(10~14)d、13(9~103)d。5例患者发生Ⅱ~Ⅳ度急性移植物抗宿主病(GVHD),2例患者发生中重度慢性GVHD。移植后3个月疗效评估,所有患者均为严格意义的完全缓解(sCR)。移植后中位随访时间为18.9(4.1~72.5)个月,移植后2年移植相关死亡率为7.1%(95% CI 0%~21.1%),总生存率为92.9%(95% CI 80.3%~100.0%);移植后1、2年无进展生存率分别为92.9%(95%CI 80.3%~100.0%)、66.0%(95%CI 39.4%~100.0%),2年累积复发率为28.9%(95%CI 0%~56.7%)。 结论: 年轻HRMM患者在诱导治疗后桥接allo-HSCT可进一步提高疗效。.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:阿那曲唑预防乳腺癌的有效性已得到证实。本研究的目的是评估阿那曲唑在乳腺癌高危女性中预防乳腺癌的成本效益,并确定阿那曲唑在乳腺癌一级预防中是否可以提高女性的生活质量并节省医疗保健资源。
    方法:在乳腺癌高危女性中,使用决策分析模型评估阿那曲唑预防与不预防的成本和效果。概率的关键参数来自IBIS-II试验,成本和健康结果数据来自已发表的文献.Costs,质量调整寿命年(QALYs),并计算了这两种策略的增量成本效益比(ICER),进行了单向和概率敏感性分析。
    结果:在基本情况下,在前5年,阿那曲唑预防的每QALY增量成本为125,705.38英镑/QALY,而英国没有预防,高于WTP的门槛(3000GB/QALY),在12年期间,ICER为8,313.45英镑/QALY,小于WTP。对于美国第三方付款人来说,ICER在前5年为134,232.13美元/QALY,在12年为8,843.30美元/QALY,均低于WTP阈值($150,000/QALY)。
    结论:在英国和美国,阿那曲唑可能是高危绝经后女性预防乳腺癌的一种具有成本效益的策略.此外,模型的周期越长,可接受性越高。本研究结果可为临床医师提供科学的决策参考,病人,和国家医疗卫生政府部门。
    OBJECTIVE: The effectiveness of anastrozole for breast cancer prevention has been demonstrated. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of anastrozole for the prevention of breast cancer in women with a high risk of breast cancer and to determine whether anastrozole for the primary prevention of breast cancer can improve the quality of life of women and save health-care resources.
    METHODS: A decision-analytic model was used to assess the costs and effects of anastrozole prevention versus no prevention among women with a high risk of breast cancer. The key parameters of probability were derived from the IBIS-II trial, and the cost and health outcome data were derived from published literature. Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for the two strategies,One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.
    RESULTS: In the base case, the incremental cost per QALY of anastrozole prevention was £125,705.38/QALY in the first 5 years compared with no prevention in the UK, above the threshold of WTP (£3,000/QALY),and in the 12-year period, the ICER was £8,313.45/QALY, less than WTP. For the US third-party payer, ICER was $134,232.13/QALY in the first 5 years and $8,843.30/QALY in the 12 years, both less than the WTP threshold ($150,000/QALY).
    CONCLUSIONS: In the UK and US, anastrozole may be a cost-effective strategy for the prevention of breast cancer in high-risk postmenopausal women. Moreover, the longer the cycle of the model, the higher the acceptability. The results of this study may provide a scientific reference for decision-making for clinicians, patients, and national medical and health care government departments.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:在完全切除的IB期NSCLC中使用辅助化疗(ACT)仍然存在争议。本研究旨在探讨ACT在具有高危因素的病理分期IB期非小细胞肺癌(NSCLC)中的疗效。
    方法:对2013年至2017年接受完全切除的pT2aN0M0期IB期NSCLC患者进行回顾性分析。采用单因素和多因素logistic回归分析评估与不良预后相关的独立危险因素。比较接受ACT和未接受ACT的患者的生存率。
    结果:在单变量和多变量分析中,以微乳头状(MIP)和固体模式(SOL)为主的腺癌,低分化鳞状细胞癌(SCC),淋巴结清扫数小于16个,肿瘤大小大于36mm是复发的高危因素.在具有复发高危因素的患者中,ACT导致DFS显著延长(HR,0.4689,95CI,1.193-3.818;p=0.0108)和OS(HR,0.4696,95CI,0.6578-6.895;p=0.2073),尽管OS未能达到统计学意义。在倾向得分匹配(PSM)之后,两组中有67对患者为1:1匹配,所有基线特征均平衡。结果还表明,ACT与改善的DFS(HR,0.4776,95CI,0.9779-4.484;p=0.0440),而OS没有显着差异(92.5%与91.0%;HR,0.6167,95CI,0.1688-2.038;p=0.7458)。在低风险因素复发的患者中,DFS(HR,0.4831,95CI,0.03025-7.715;p=0.6068)和OS(HR,0.969,95CI,0.08364-11.21;p=0.9794)在接受ACT的人和未接受ACT的人之间没有显着差异。
    结论:在完全切除的IB期NSCLC患者中,ACT可以提高复发风险高的患者的生存率。需要进一步的大型多中心研究来证实这些发现。
    BACKGROUND: The use of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) in completely resected stage IB NSCLC is still controversial. This study aims to investigate the efficacy of ACT in pathological stage IB non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with high risk factors.
    METHODS: Patients with pT2aN0M0 stage IB NSCLC who underwent complete resection from 2013 to 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess potential independent risk factors associated with poor prognosis. To compare survival between patients who received ACT and those who did not.
    RESULTS: In univariate and multivariate analyses, adenocarcinomas with predominantly micropapillary (MIP) and solid patterns (SOL), poorly differentiated squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), number of lymph nodes dissected less than 16 and tumor size larger than 36 mm were identified as high-risk factors for recurrence. In patients with high risk factors for recurrence, ACT resulted in significantly longer DFS (HR, 0.4689, 95%CI, 1.193-3.818; p = 0.0108) and OS (HR, 0.4696, 95%CI, 0.6578-6.895; p = 0.2073), although OS failed to reach statistically significance. After propensity score matching (PSM), 67 pairs of patients were 1:1 matched in the two groups and all baseline characteristics were well balanced. The results also demonstrated that ACT was associated with improved DFS (HR, 0.4776, 95%CI, 0.9779-4.484; p = 0.0440) while OS was not significantly different (92.5% vs. 91.0%; HR, 0.6167, 95%CI, 0.1688-2.038; p = 0.7458). In patients with low-risk factors for recurrence, DFS (HR, 0.4831, 95%CI, 0.03025-7.715; p = 0.6068) and OS (HR, 0.969, 95%CI, 0.08364-11.21; p = 0.9794) was not significantly different between those who received ACT and those who did not.
    CONCLUSIONS: In patients with completely resected stage IB NSCLC, ACT can improve survival in patients with high risk for recurrence. Further large multicenter studies are needed to confirm these findings.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究的目的是开发和验证用于估计甲状腺髓样癌(MTC)术后早期远处转移(DM)风险的列线图。
    我们回顾性回顾了从监测中诊断为MTC的患者病例,流行病学,和2007年至2017年的最终结果(SEER)数据库。此外,我们收集了2009年至2021年在吉林大学第一医院甲状腺外科诊断为MTC的患者的数据.四种机器学习算法用于建模,包括随机森林分类器(RFC),梯度增强决策树(GBDT),逻辑回归(LR),和支持向量机(SVM)。基于精度选择了最优模型,召回,特异性,接收机工作特性曲线(ROC),和曲线下面积(AUC)。之后,Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度测试,Brier评分(BS)和校准曲线用于验证最佳模型,这使得我们能够衡量预测值和实际值之间的差异。
    通过功能选择,我们最终澄清了以下四个特征与MTC的远处转移有关,这是年龄,手术,原发肿瘤(T)和淋巴结(N)。内部测试集中四个模型的AUC值如下:随机森林:0.8786(95%CI,0.8070-0.9503),GBDT:0.8402(95%CI,0.7606-0.9199),Logistic回归:0.8670(95CI,0.7927-0.9413),和SVM:0.8673(95%CI,0.7931-0.9415)。可以看出,其AUC值无统计学差异。选择四个模型的最高AUC值作为此后的最佳模型。该模型在内部测试集上进行了评估,准确率为0.84,召回率为0.76,特异性为0.87。绘制ROC曲线,AUC为0.8786(95%CI,0.8070-0.9503),高于其他三种型号。使用列线图对模型进行可视化,其净效益显示在决策曲线分析(DCA)和临床影响曲线(CIC)中。
    提出的模型具有良好的辨别能力,可以初步筛查术后早期的DM高危患者。
    UNASSIGNED: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a nomogram for estimating the risk of distant metastases (DM) in the early postoperative phase of medullary thyroid cancer (MTC).
    UNASSIGNED: We retrospectively reviewed cases of patients diagnosed with MTC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2007 to 2017. In addition, we gathered data on patients who diagnosed as MTC at Department of Thyroid Surgery in the First Hospital of Jilin University between 2009 and 2021. Four machine learning algorithms were used for modeling, including random forest classifier (RFC), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), logistic regression (LR), and support vector machine (SVM). The optimal model was selected based on accuracy, recall, specificity, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and area under curve (AUC). After that, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, the brier score (BS) and calibration curve were used for validation of the best model, which allowed us to measure the discrepancy between the projected value and the actual value.
    UNASSIGNED: Through feature selection, we finally clarified that the following four features are associated with distant metastases of MTC, which are age, surgery, primary tumor (T) and nodes (N). The AUC values of the four models in the internal test set were as follows: random forest: 0.8786 (95% CI, 0.8070-0.9503), GBDT: 0.8402 (95% CI, 0.7606-0.9199), logistic regression: 0.8670(95%CI,0.7927-0.9413), and SVM: 0.8673 (95% CI, 0.7931-0.9415). As can be shown, there was no statistically significant difference in their AUC values. The highest AUC value of the four models were chosen as the best model since. The model was evaluated on the internal test set, and the accuracy was 0.84, recall was 0.76, and specificity was 0.87. The ROC curve was drawn, and the AUC was 0.8786 (95% CI, 0.8070-0.9503), which was higher than the other three models. The model was visualized using the nomogram and its net benefit was shown in both the Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) and Clinical Impact Curve (CIC).
    UNASSIGNED: Proposed model had good discrimination ability and could preliminarily screen high-risk patients for DM in the early postoperative period.
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