early warning

预警
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    伤口愈合对受损组织的结构和功能恢复至关重要。然而,有效的伤口闭合和愈合一直是再生工程的巨大挑战。这项研究提供了具有药物释放水凝胶和非紧密堆积光子晶体(NPC)的生物启发可穿戴水凝胶复合材料,用于伤口治疗和伤口开裂的肉眼视觉预警。分子动力学模型和药物释放结果说明了布洛芬的持续药物释放,通过引入鱼胶原蛋白,以1410%的拉伸应变优化了药物释放水凝胶的机械性能;它们的生物相容性和粘附性也得到了改善。NPC的结构颜色从630到500nm蓝移,应变为15.0%,并根据聚(甲基丙烯酸甲酯)(PMMA)浓度和丙烯酰胺含量定制原始颜色。与纱布和传统的水凝胶相比,复合材料提供了潮湿的环境和有效闭合的伤口;清创和释放的药物避免了炎症,大鼠伤口在第三天愈合了40.5%,在第14天基本愈合了100%。这项工作为伤口愈合和伤口变形时的肉眼视觉预警提供了一种新颖的策略,有望促进临床治疗与可视化预警的协同发展。
    Wound healing is critical to the structural and functional restoration of damaged tissue. However, effective wound closure and healing are always great challenges in regenerative engineering. This study provided bioinspired wearable hydrogel composites with drug-releasing hydrogel and nonclose-packed photonic crystals (NPCs) for wound therapy and naked-eye visual early warning of wound dehiscence. Molecular dynamics models and drug-releasing results illustrated the sustained drug release of ibuprofen, and the mechanical properties of the drug-releasing hydrogel were optimized with 1410% tensile strain by introducing fish collagen; their biocompatibility and adhesion were also improved. The structural color of the NPCs blue-shifted from 630 to 500 nm with 15.0% strain, and the original color was customized with poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) concentration and acrylamide content. Compared with the gauze and the traditional hydrogels, the composite provided a moist environment and an effectively closed wound; the debridement and released drug avoided inflammation, and the rat wound was healed 40.5% on the third day and essentially 100% on the 14th day. The work provided a novel strategy for wound healing and naked-eye visual early warning when a wound deforms, which is expected to promote the synergistic development of clinical treatment and visualized early warning.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    食品安全事件的频发引起了公众对食品安全和关键污染物的关注。食源性病原体污染,农药残留,重金属残留物,和其他食品安全问题将显著影响人类健康。因此,发展高效、灵敏的检测方法,确保食品安全预警至关重要。基于适体的传感器(aptasensor)是一种新型的分析工具,具有很强的针对性,高灵敏度,低成本,等。它已被广泛用于制药行业,生物医学,环境工程,食品安全检测,以及其他不同领域。本文综述了食品分析检测应用传感器的最新研究进展,主要介绍了它们在检测各种关键食品污染物中的应用。随后,讨论了aptasensor的传感机理和性能。最后,审查将研究与检测食品中主要污染物有关的挑战和机遇,并在食品安全和检测中推进aptasensor的实施。
    The frequent occurrence of food safety incidents has aroused public concern about food safety and key contaminants. Foodborne pathogen contamination, pesticide residues, heavy metal residues, and other food safety problems will significantly impact human health. Therefore, developing efficient and sensitive detection method to ensure food safety early warning is paramount. The aptamer-based sensor (aptasensor) is a novel analytical tool with strong targeting, high sensitivity, low cost, etc. It has been extensively utilized in the pharmaceutical industry, biomedicine, environmental engineering, food safety detection, and in other diverse fields. This work reviewed the latest research progress of aptasensors for food analysis and detection, mainly introducing their application in detecting various key food contaminants. Subsequently, the sensing mechanism and performance of aptasensors are discussed. Finally, the review will examine the challenges and opportunities related to aptasensors for detecting major contaminants in food, and advance implementation of aptasensors in food safety and detection.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    基于废水的监测已成为监测严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)的重要方法。这项研究调查了赞比亚废水中SARS-CoV-2的存在。从2023年10月至2023年12月,我们在赞比亚的铜带和东部省份进行了一项纵向研究,在此期间收集了155个废水样品。对样品进行三种不同的浓缩方法,即袋式过滤,脱脂乳絮凝,和基于聚乙二醇的浓度测定。使用实时聚合酶链反应(PCR)进行SARS-CoV-2核酸的分子检测。使用IlluminaCOVIDSEQ测定进行全基因组测序。在155个废水样本中,62(40%)的SARS-CoV-2检测呈阳性。其中,获得了13个长度足以确定SARS-CoV-2谱系的序列,并对2个序列进行了系统发育分析。在废水中检测到各种Omicron亚变体,包括BA.5,XBB.1.45,BA.2.86和JN.1。在赞比亚的临床病例中已检测到其中一些亚变体。有趣的是,系统发育分析将铜带省的序列定位在B.1.1.29进化枝中,这表明2021年底检测到的早期Omicron变体可能仍在传播,可能尚未被新的亚变体完全取代。这项研究强调需要将SARS-CoV-2的废水监测纳入监测赞比亚SARS-CoV-2循环的主流策略。
    Wastewater-based surveillance has emerged as an important method for monitoring the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This study investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater in Zambia. We conducted a longitudinal study in the Copperbelt and Eastern provinces of Zambia from October 2023 to December 2023 during which 155 wastewater samples were collected. The samples were subjected to three different concentration methods, namely bag-mediated filtration, skimmed milk flocculation, and polythene glycol-based concentration assays. Molecular detection of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid was conducted using real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). Whole genome sequencing was conducted using Illumina COVIDSEQ assay. Of the 155 wastewater samples, 62 (40%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Of these, 13 sequences of sufficient length to determine SARS-CoV-2 lineages were obtained and 2 sequences were phylogenetically analyzed. Various Omicron subvariants were detected in wastewater including BA.5, XBB.1.45, BA.2.86, and JN.1. Some of these subvariants have been detected in clinical cases in Zambia. Interestingly, phylogenetic analysis positioned a sequence from the Copperbelt Province in the B.1.1.529 clade, suggesting that earlier Omicron variants detected in late 2021 could still be circulating and may not have been wholly replaced by newer subvariants. This study stresses the need for integrating wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 into mainstream strategies for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 circulation in Zambia.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文对当前的预警系统(EWS)进行了全面的回顾,并倡导在中国和澳大利亚之间建立统一的传染病EWS研究网络。我们建议,未来的研究应通过整合两国数据来加强预测模型和干预策略,从而改善传染病监测。这篇文章强调了对标准化数据格式和术语的需求,提高监控能力,以及稳健时空预测模型的发展。最后,它研究了这种合作方法的潜在好处和挑战及其对全球传染病监测的影响。这与正在进行的项目特别相关,中国和澳大利亚传染病预警系统(NetEWAC)旨在以季节性流感为例分析流感趋势,高峰活动,和潜在的半球间传播模式。该项目旨在整合来自两个半球的数据,以改善疫情预测,并基于社会环境因素开发季节性流感传播的时空预测建模系统。
    This article offers a thorough review of current early warning systems (EWS) and advocates for establishing a unified research network for EWS in infectious diseases between China and Australia. We propose that future research should focus on improving infectious disease surveillance by integrating data from both countries to enhance predictive models and intervention strategies. The article highlights the need for standardized data formats and terminologies, improved surveillance capabilities, and the development of robust spatiotemporal predictive models. It concludes by examining the potential benefits and challenges of this collaborative approach and its implications for global infectious disease surveillance. This is particularly relevant to the ongoing project, early warning systems for Infectious Diseases between China and Australia (NetEWAC), which aims to use seasonal influenza as a case study to analyze influenza trends, peak activities, and potential inter-hemispheric transmission patterns. The project seeks to integrate data from both hemispheres to improve outbreak predictions and develop a spatiotemporal predictive modeling system for seasonal influenza transmission based on socio-environmental factors.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    理清冶金企业安全事故发生因素之间的复杂关系,预测企业发生事故的风险,建立了基于灰色决策试验与评价实验室/解释结构模型(DEMATEL/ISM)的冶金企业安全事故因素关联分析模型,在此基础上构建了贝叶斯网络预警模型。阐明了冶金企业事故致因因素的关系及作用路径。对各因素进行分层划分,建立多层分层结构模型,得到相邻原因,过渡原因,和事故的根本原因。结果表明,员工违规率,有害物质的储备,有毒气体和粉尘污染控制达标率,设备维修合格率,特种设备的合格率是事故的邻近原因。安全生产管理体系的完善是根本原因。将贝叶斯网络预警模型应用于阜新九兴钛业工作现场。事故的预期风险概率为17.9%,处于相对安全的状态(State2)。贝叶斯模型得到的结果与层次分析法和模糊综合评价法得到的结果一致,证明了预警模型的准确性。贝叶斯模型可以同时给出事故的风险概率值和事故原因因素的风险概率值,并在推理过程中包括指标变量之间的因果关系和条件相关关系,风险分级管理和控制的应急体系建设提供有针对性的技术支撑。
    To clarify the complex relationship between the factors causing safety accidents in metallurgical enterprises and predict the risk of accidents in enterprises, a correlation analysis model of the factors causing safety accidents in metallurgical enterprises based on grey Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory/Interpretative Structural Modeling (DEMATEL/ISM) was established, and a Bayesian network early warning model was constructed on this basis. The relationship and action path of accident-causing factors in metallurgical enterprises were clarified. The factors were hierarchically divided and a multi-layer hierarchical structure model was established to obtain the neighboring cause, transitional cause, and essential cause of the accident. The results showed that the employee violation rate, the hazardous substances reserves, the toxic gas and dust pollution control compliance rate, the pass rate for equipment maintenance, and the qualification rate of special equipment were the neighboring causes of the accident. The perfection of the safety production management system was the essential cause. The Bayesian network early warning model was applied to the Fuxin Jiuxing Titanium work site. The expected risk probability of an accident was 17.9%, which was in a comparatively safe state (State2). The results obtained by the Bayesian model are consistent with those obtained by AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, which proved the accuracy of the early warning model. The Bayesian model can give the risk probability value of the accident and the risk probability value of the accident cause factors at the same time, and include the causal relationship and conditional correlation relationship among the indicator variables in the reasoning process, which can provide targeted technical support for the construction of the emergency system of risk classification management and control.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究旨在采用基于转移熵的因果网络模型来预警商品市场的系统性风险。我们分析了与中国相关的25种商品价格的动态因果关系(包括能源价格和现货价格,工业金属,贵金属,和农产品),验证商品市场间因果网络结构对系统性风险的影响。我们的研究结果确定了起重要作用的商品和类别,揭示了工业和贵金属市场拥有更强的市场信息传递能力,价格波动影响范围更广,对其他商品市场的影响更大。在不同类型危机事件的影响下,比如经济危机和俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突,商品市场之间的因果网络结构表现出鲜明的特征。商品市场因果网络结构的外部冲击对系统风险熵的影响结果表明,网络结构指标可以警告系统风险。本文可以帮助投资者和政策制定者管理系统性风险,避免意外损失。
    This study aims to employ a causal network model based on transfer entropy for the early warning of systemic risk in commodity markets. We analyzed the dynamic causal relationships of prices for 25 commodities related to China (including futures and spot prices of energy, industrial metals, precious metals, and agricultural products), validating the effect of the causal network structure among commodity markets on systemic risk. Our research results identified commodities and categories playing significant roles, revealing that industry and precious metal markets possess stronger market information transmission capabilities, with price fluctuations impacting a broader range and with greater force on other commodity markets. Under the influence of different types of crisis events, such as economic crises and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the causal network structure among commodity markets exhibited distinct characteristics. The results of the effect of external shocks to the causal network structure of commodity markets on the entropy of systemic risk suggest that network structure indicators can warn of systemic risk. This article can assist investors and policymakers in managing systemic risk to avoid unexpected losses.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:肥胖的全球患病率不断上升,需要探索新的诊断方法。最近的科学调查表明,与肥胖相关的语音特征可能发生变化,提示使用语音作为肥胖检测的非侵入性生物标志物的可行性。
    目的:本研究旨在通过对短录音的分析,使用深度神经网络来预测肥胖状态,研究声乐特征与肥胖的关系。
    方法:对696名参与者进行了一项初步研究,使用自我报告的BMI将个体分为肥胖和非肥胖组。参与者阅读简短脚本的录音被转换为频谱图,并使用改编的YOLOv8模型(Ultralytics)进行分析。使用准确性对模型性能进行了评估,召回,精度,和F1分数。
    结果:适应的YOLOv8模型显示出0.70的全局准确性和0.65的宏F1评分。在识别非肥胖(F1评分为0.77)方面比肥胖(F1评分为0.53)更有效。这种中等水平的准确性凸显了使用声乐生物标志物进行肥胖检测的潜力和挑战。
    结论:虽然该研究在基于语音的肥胖医学诊断领域显示出希望,它面临着一些限制,比如依赖自我报告的BMI数据,均匀的样本量。这些因素,再加上录音质量的可变性,需要使用更强大的方法和不同的样本进行进一步的研究,以增强这种新颖方法的有效性。这些发现为将来使用语音作为肥胖检测的非侵入性生物标志物的研究奠定了基础。
    BACKGROUND: The escalating global prevalence of obesity has necessitated the exploration of novel diagnostic approaches. Recent scientific inquiries have indicated potential alterations in voice characteristics associated with obesity, suggesting the feasibility of using voice as a noninvasive biomarker for obesity detection.
    OBJECTIVE: This study aims to use deep neural networks to predict obesity status through the analysis of short audio recordings, investigating the relationship between vocal characteristics and obesity.
    METHODS: A pilot study was conducted with 696 participants, using self-reported BMI to classify individuals into obesity and nonobesity groups. Audio recordings of participants reading a short script were transformed into spectrograms and analyzed using an adapted YOLOv8 model (Ultralytics). The model performance was evaluated using accuracy, recall, precision, and F1-scores.
    RESULTS: The adapted YOLOv8 model demonstrated a global accuracy of 0.70 and a macro F1-score of 0.65. It was more effective in identifying nonobesity (F1-score of 0.77) than obesity (F1-score of 0.53). This moderate level of accuracy highlights the potential and challenges in using vocal biomarkers for obesity detection.
    CONCLUSIONS: While the study shows promise in the field of voice-based medical diagnostics for obesity, it faces limitations such as reliance on self-reported BMI data and a small, homogenous sample size. These factors, coupled with variability in recording quality, necessitate further research with more robust methodologies and diverse samples to enhance the validity of this novel approach. The findings lay a foundational step for future investigations in using voice as a noninvasive biomarker for obesity detection.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    呼吸道传染病,如2019年流感和冠状病毒病(COVID-19),面临重大的全球公共卫生挑战。人工智能(AI)和大数据的出现为改善传统的疾病监测和预警系统提供了机会。
    该研究分析了2020年1月至2023年5月的数据,包括流感样疾病(ILI)统计数据。百度指数,和潍坊的临床资料。评估了三种方法:用于动态阈值调整的自适应动态阈值方法(ADTM),机器学习监督方法(MLSM),以及利用异常检测的机器学习无监督方法(MLUM)。比较集中在灵敏度上,特异性,及时性、及时性警告的一致性。
    ADTM发出了37次警告,灵敏度为71%,特异性为85%。MLSM生成了35个警告,灵敏度为82%,特异性为87%。MLUM产生了63个警告,敏感性为100%,特异性为80%。ADTM和MLUM的最初警告比MLSM的警告早了五天。Kappa系数表明方法之间有适度的一致性,取值范围为0.52~0.62(P<0.05)。
    该研究探讨了传统方法与两种用于预警系统的机器学习方法之间的比较。它强调了机器学习可靠性的验证,并强调了每种方法的独特优势。此外,它强调了将机器学习模型与各种数据源集成在一起以增强公共卫生准备和响应的重要性,同时承认局限性和需要更广泛的验证。
    UNASSIGNED: Respiratory infectious diseases, such as influenza and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), present significant global public health challenges. The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and big data offers opportunities to improve traditional disease surveillance and early warning systems.
    UNASSIGNED: The study analyzed data from January 2020 to May 2023, comprising influenza-like illness (ILI) statistics, Baidu index, and clinical data from Weifang. Three methodologies were evaluated: the adaptive dynamic threshold method (ADTM) for dynamic threshold adjustments, the machine learning supervised method (MLSM), and the machine learning unsupervised method (MLUM) utilizing anomaly detection. The comparison focused on sensitivity, specificity, timeliness, and warning consistency.
    UNASSIGNED: ADTM issued 37 warnings with a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 85%. MLSM generated 35 warnings, with a sensitivity of 82% and a specificity of 87%. MLUM produced 63 warnings with a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 80%. The initial warnings from ADTM and MLUM preceded those from MLSM by five days. The Kappa coefficient indicated moderate agreement between the methods, with values ranging from 0.52 to 0.62 (P<0.05).
    UNASSIGNED: The study explores the comparison between traditional methods and two machine learning approaches for early warning systems. It emphasizes the validation of machine learning\'s reliability and underscores the unique advantages of each method. Furthermore, it stresses the significance of integrating machine learning models with various data sources to enhance public health preparedness and response, alongside acknowledging limitations and the need for broader validation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:具有沉重疾病负担的医院感染正在成为世界各地医疗保健系统的主要威胁。从长远来看,系统,连续的数据收集和分析,医院感染监测(NIS)系统是在各医院建立的,虽然这些数据仅作为实时监测,但无法实现预测和预警功能。研究是从常规NIS数据中筛选有效的预测因子,通过整合多种风险因素和机器学习(ML)方法,最终实现医院感染(INI)发生率的趋势预测和风险阈值。
    方法:我们选择了中国南方和北方的两家代表性医院,并收集了2014年至2021年的NIS数据。包括医院手术量在内的39个因素,医院感染,抗菌药物使用和室外温度数据,等。用5种ML方法分别拟合INI预测模型,并评估和比较他们的表现。
    结果:与其他型号相比,随机森林在两家医院均表现最佳(5倍AUC=0.983),其次是支持向量机。在所有因素中,12项指标在INI高危和低危组间差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。在通过重要性分析筛选出有效的预测因子后,成功构建了时间趋势预测模型(R2=0.473和0.780,BIC=-1.537和-0.731)。
    结论:手术数量,抗生素使用密度,危重病率和不合理处方率等关键指标可以拟合为INI阈值预测和定量预警。
    BACKGROUND: Nosocomial infections with heavy disease burden are becoming a major threat to the health care system around the world. Through long-term, systematic, continuous data collection and analysis, Nosocomial infection surveillance (NIS) systems are constructed in each hospital; while these data are only used as real-time surveillance but fail to realize the prediction and early warning function. Study is to screen effective predictors from the routine NIS data, through integrating the multiple risk factors and Machine learning (ML) methods, and eventually realize the trend prediction and risk threshold of Incidence of Nosocomial infection (INI).
    METHODS: We selected two representative hospitals in southern and northern China, and collected NIS data from 2014 to 2021. Thirty-nine factors including hospital operation volume, nosocomial infection, antibacterial drug use and outdoor temperature data, etc. Five ML methods were used to fit the INI prediction model respectively, and to evaluate and compare their performance.
    RESULTS: Compared with other models, Random Forest showed the best performance (5-fold AUC = 0.983) in both hospitals, followed by Support Vector Machine. Among all the factors, 12 indicators were significantly different between high-risk and low-risk groups for INI (P < 0.05). After screening the effective predictors through importance analysis, prediction model of the time trend was successfully constructed (R2 = 0.473 and 0.780, BIC = -1.537 and -0.731).
    CONCLUSIONS: The number of surgeries, antibiotics use density, critical disease rate and unreasonable prescription rate and other key indicators could be fitted to be the threshold predictions of INI and quantitative early warning.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    基于结构健康监测(SHM)系统的桥梁预警对于确保桥梁安全运营具有重要意义。温度引起的挠度(TID)是连续刚构桥性能下降的敏感指标,但是时滞效应使得准确预测TID具有挑战性。提出了一种基于非线性建模的桥梁TID预警方法。首先,分析了连续刚构桥的温度和挠度的SHM数据,以检验温度梯度的变化规律。核主成分分析(KPCA)用于提取主温度成分。然后,TID是通过小波变换提取的,利用支持向量机(SVM)提出了一种考虑温度梯度的TID非线性建模方法。最后,分析了KPCA-SVM算法的预测误差,并根据误差的统计模式确定预警阈值。结果表明,KPCA-SVM算法在显著降低计算量的同时,实现了TID的高精度非线性建模。预测结果的决定系数在0.98以上,在小范围内波动,统计规律清晰。根据错误的统计模式设置预警阈值可以实现桥梁结构的动态和多级警告。
    Bridge early warning based on structural health monitoring (SHM) system is of significant importance for ensuring bridge safe operation. The temperature-induced deflection (TID) is a sensitive indicator for performance degradation of continuous rigid frame bridges, but the time-lag effect makes it challenging to predict the TID accurately. A bridge early warning method based on nonlinear modeling for the TID is proposed in this article. Firstly, the SHM data of temperature and deflection of a continuous rigid frame bridge are analyzed to examine the temperature gradient variation patterns. Kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) is used to extract principal temperature components. Then, the TID is extracted through wavelet transform, and a nonlinear modeling method for the TID considering the temperature gradient is proposed using the support vector machine (SVM). Finally, the prediction errors of the KPCA-SVM algorithm are analyzed, and the early warning thresholds are determined based on the statistical patterns of the errors. The results show that the KPCA-SVM algorithm achieves high-precision nonlinear modeling for the TID while significantly reducing the computational load. The prediction results have coefficients of determination above 0.98 and fluctuate within a small range with clear statistical patterns. Setting the early warning thresholds based on the statistical patterns of errors enables dynamic and multi-level warnings for bridge structures.
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