early warning

预警
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们描述了检疫粉虱的过程,尖刺(半翅目,Aleyrodidae),在法国被发现。最初的观察是由一名志愿者进行的,他报告了在国家爱国者自然国家清单(INPNEspèces)中的一名成年人的照片,由法国生物多样性办公室和法国国家自然博物馆开发的公民科学资源。负责半翅目组验证的一位专家昆虫学家从这张照片中怀疑该标本是Spiniferus。一旦确定了物种,它被安装在幻灯片上,信息通过事先为这种情况建立的通信渠道正式传递给农业部。然后,该部触发了在可疑检测到检疫生物的情况下计划的监管行动。迅速进行了采样,这次收集的标本被正式鉴定为属于A.spiniferus物种。这导致了法国爆发的正式化。从第一次观察到管理计划的实施,这一系列决定只用了两个月的时间。此案例介绍了入侵准备如何有助于快速反应。此外,这个案例说明了公民科学如何有助于早期发现入侵物种,并强调了向公众和专业人士通报重大环境问题的重要性。
    We describe the process by which the quarantine whitefly, Aleurocanthus spiniferus (Hemiptera, Aleyrodidae), was detected in France. The initial observation was made by a volunteer who reported a picture of an adult in the Inventaire National du Patrimoine Naturel (INPN Espèces), a citizen science resource developed by l\'Office Français de la Biodiversité and the French Muséum National d\'Histoire Naturelle. The specimen was suspected to be A. spiniferus from this picture by one of the expert entomologists in charge of the Hemiptera group validation. Once the species was identified, it was mounted on a slide and the information was officially passed on to the ministry in charge of agriculture via a communication channel set up in advance for this type of situation. The ministry then triggered the regulatory actions planned in the event of the suspected detection of quarantine organisms. Sampling was quickly carried out and the specimens collected on this occasion were formally identified as belonging to the species A. spiniferus. This led to the formalization of an outbreak in France. This sequence of decisions took just two months from the first observation to the implementation of a management plan. This case presents how incursion preparedness contributes to a rapid response. Furthermore, this case exemplifies how citizen science can contribute to the early detection of invasive species and highlights the importance of informing both the general public and professionals about major environmental issues.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    与北半球的许多其他地区相比,北极高地被认为是原始环境。它变得越来越容易受到外来入侵物种(IAS)的入侵,然而,随着气候变化导致海冰迅速消失,海洋温度和盐度的变化,加强人类活动。这些变化可能会增加该地区到达的发生率和建立国际会计准则的可能性。为了预测国际会计准则的影响,一组分类学专家,入侵生物学和北极生态学以斯瓦尔巴群岛为例进行了地平线扫描练习,为了确定对生物多样性构成最高风险的物种,人类健康和未来10年的经济。共有114种,目前不在斯瓦尔巴群岛,记录一次和/或仅从环境DNA样本中识别出来,最初被确定为相关的审查。发现七个物种具有很高的入侵风险,并可能对生物多样性造成重大负面影响,而五个物种可能对斯瓦尔巴群岛产生经济影响。十足蟹,海鞘和藤壶在最高风险海洋IAS列表中占主导地位。还研究了潜在的入侵途径,最常见的是与船只交通有关。我们建议(i)将这种方法用作在更广泛的北极高地应用生物安全措施的关键工具,(二)在预警系统中增加这一工具,以加强现有的监测措施;(三)这一方法用于识别高风险的陆地和淡水国际会计准则,以了解北极高地面临的总体威胁。如果没有生物安全措施,包括地平线扫描,海洋国际会计准则入侵增加的风险更大,导致北极高地的环境和经济发生不可预见的变化。
    The high Arctic is considered a pristine environment compared with many other regions in the northern hemisphere. It is becoming increasingly vulnerable to invasion by invasive alien species (IAS), however, as climate change leads to rapid loss of sea ice, changes in ocean temperature and salinity, and enhanced human activities. These changes are likely to increase the incidence of arrival and the potential for establishment of IAS in the region. To predict the impact of IAS, a group of experts in taxonomy, invasion biology and Arctic ecology carried out a horizon scanning exercise using the Svalbard archipelago as a case study, to identify the species that present the highest risk to biodiversity, human health and the economy within the next 10 years. A total of 114 species, currently absent from Svalbard, recorded once and/or identified only from environmental DNA samples, were initially identified as relevant for review. Seven species were found to present a high invasion risk and to potentially cause a significant negative impact on biodiversity and five species had the potential to have an economic impact on Svalbard. Decapod crabs, ascidians and barnacles dominated the list of highest risk marine IAS. Potential pathways of invasion were also researched, the most common were found associated with vessel traffic. We recommend (i) use of this approach as a key tool within the application of biosecurity measures in the wider high Arctic, (ii) the addition of this tool to early warning systems for strengthening existing surveillance measures; and (iii) that this approach is used to identify high-risk terrestrial and freshwater IAS to understand the overall threat facing the high Arctic. Without the application of biosecurity measures, including horizon scanning, there is a greater risk that marine IAS invasions will increase, leading to unforeseen changes in the environment and economy of the high Arctic.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:未诊断的结核病(TB)病例是尼日利亚结核病控制的主要挑战。早期预警爆发识别系统(EWORS)是主要用于检测传染病爆发的系统;该系统可以用作基于案例的地理空间工具,用于实时识别具有结核病患者集群的热点区域。针对此类热点的TB筛查应比针对非热点的筛查产生更多的TB病例。
    目的:我们的目的是证明EWORS作为检测尼日利亚高结核病负担州中结核病病例产量增加区域的工具的结核病热点图谱的有效性。
    方法:尼日利亚KNCV结核病基金会向尼日利亚14个高负担州部署了EWORS。该系统使用先进的监测机制来识别结核病患者的集群,使其能够预测疾病传播增加的地区(即,热点)在病房级别。在同一社区中选择的121个热点病房和213个非热点病房,使用世界卫生组织4症状筛查方法进行了结核病筛查外展。使用GeneXpert仪器或胸部X射线对确定的推定病例进行TB评估。来自这两个地区的确诊结核病病例与治疗有关。本研究对热点和非热点病房的数据进行了回顾性分析。
    结果:在16个月的干预期间,共有1,962,042人(n=734,384,男性37.4%,n=1,227,658,62.6%女性)和2,025,286人(n=701,103,34.6%男性,n=1,324,183,女性占65.4%)参加热点地区和非热点地区的社区结核病筛查外展,分别。所有筛查患者中的推定病例为268,264例(N=3,987,328,6.7%),确诊的TB病例为22,618例(N=222,270,10.1%)。在热点地区和非热点地区诊断结核病病例所需的筛查人数分别为每万人146人和193人,分别。
    结论:在尼日利亚14个高负担州中,在EWORS映射的热点地区发现的活动性结核病病例比非热点地区产生的结核病病例更高。随着EWORS的应用,在推定病例中诊断结核病的准确率从0.077上升至0.103,诊断结核病病例所需的推定病例数从14.047下降至10.255/10,000人.
    Undiagnosed tuberculosis (TB) cases are the major challenge to TB control in Nigeria. An early warning outbreak recognition system (EWORS) is a system that is primarily used to detect infectious disease outbreaks; this system can be used as a case-based geospatial tool for the real-time identification of hot spot areas with clusters of TB patients. TB screening targeted at such hot spots should yield more TB cases than screening targeted at non-hot spots.
    We aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of an EWORS for TB hot spot mapping as a tool for detecting areas with increased TB case yields in high TB-burden states of Nigeria.
    KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation Nigeria deployed an EWORS to 14 high-burden states in Nigeria. The system used an advanced surveillance mechanism to identify TB patients\' residences in clusters, enabling it to predict areas with elevated disease spread (ie, hot spots) at the ward level. TB screening outreach using the World Health Organization 4-symptom screening method was conducted in 121 hot spot wards and 213 non-hot spot wards selected from the same communities. Presumptive cases identified were evaluated for TB using the GeneXpert instrument or chest X-ray. Confirmed TB cases from both areas were linked to treatment. Data from the hot spot and non-hot spot wards were analyzed retrospectively for this study.
    During the 16-month intervention, a total of 1,962,042 persons (n=734,384, 37.4% male, n=1,227,658, 62.6% female) and 2,025,286 persons (n=701,103, 34.6% male, n=1,324,183, 65.4% female) participated in the community TB screening outreaches in the hot spot and non-hot spot areas, respectively. Presumptive cases among all patients screened were 268,264 (N=3,987,328, 6.7%) and confirmed TB cases were 22,618 (N=222,270, 10.1%). The number needed to screen to diagnose a TB case in the hot spot and non-hot spot areas was 146 and 193 per 10,000 people, respectively.
    Active TB case finding in EWORS-mapped hot spot areas yielded higher TB cases than the non-hot spot areas in the 14 high-burden states of Nigeria. With the application of EWORS, the precision of diagnosing TB among presumptive cases increased from 0.077 to 0.103, and the number of presumptive cases needed to diagnose a TB case decreased from 14.047 to 10.255 per 10,000 people.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Rockburst is a major disaster in deep mining, restricting the safety and the production efficiency of the Laohutai Coal Mine in Fushun, Liaoning Province. To predict and prevent coalmine rockbursts, a comprehensive method based on multi-instrument monitoring is proposed by using a YDD16 acoustic-electromagnetic monitor and microseismic monitoring system, including microseismic (MS) monitoring, electromagnetic radiation (EMR) monitoring, and acoustic emission (AE) monitoring. Field investigation shows that MS, AE, and EMR signals have abnormal precursors before rockbursts in a new working face. Based on the fluctuation theory and D-S evidence theory, the multi-index geophysical monitoring and early warning technology for rockburst disasters in the Laohutai Coal Mine are established. The method has been applied to the prediction of rockbursts in the Laohutai Coal Mine. The application shows that the acoustic-electromagnetic synchronous monitoring and early warning technology can accurately identify the potential rockburst risk and trigger an early warning, which is more reliable than a single method. The case study of the Laohutai rockburst shows that the joint early warning method of multi-instrument comprehensive monitoring can predict the possibility of rockbursts.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    2019年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的爆发代表了公共卫生流行病预防和控制的警报。线下防疫工作是疫情防控的主战场。然而,网上疫情信息防控不容忽视。这项研究的目的是识别可靠的信息来源和虚假的流行病信息,以及可能影响社会稳定、危害人民群众生命财产安全的疫情信息的舆论预警。通过对健康医疗大数据的分析,疫情信息筛查和舆情防控研究被分解为两个模块。从粗粒度的四个层次中提取了八个特征,细粒度,情绪倾向,和出版商的行为,并增加了另一个监管功能,构建虚假疫情信息识别模型。从宏观层面和微观层面选取了5个舆情预警指标,构建了疫情信息舆情预警模型。最后,利用大数据分析技术对COVID-19信息进行了实证分析。
    The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) represents an alert for epidemic prevention and control in public health. Offline anti-epidemic work is the main battlefield of epidemic prevention and control. However, online epidemic information prevention and control cannot be ignored. The aim of this study was to identify reliable information sources and false epidemic information, as well as early warnings of public opinion about epidemic information that may affect social stability and endanger the people\'s lives and property. Based on the analysis of health and medical big data, epidemic information screening and public opinion prevention and control research were decomposed into two modules. Eight characteristics were extracted from the four levels of coarse granularity, fine granularity, emotional tendency, and publisher behavior, and another regulatory feature was added, to build a false epidemic information identification model. Five early warning indicators of public opinion were selected from the macro level and the micro level to construct the early warning model of public opinion about epidemic information. Finally, an empirical analysis on COVID-19 information was conducted using big data analysis technology.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    如何衡量区域社会经济的整体水平,资源,如何把握两者之间的协调发展已成为一个热点问题。在本文中,利用驱动力-压力-状态-响应(DPSR)模型,构建生态安全指数(ESI)系统,资源,和环境。此外,动态非线性自回归(NAR)神经网络对ESI水平进行预测,达到预警的目的。首先,结果表明,就业率的权重,大学生的比例,人均消费水平相对较高,对提高陕西省生态安全水平具有重要作用。第二,西安市生态安全水平一直处于最好水平,陕西南生态安全状况相对较好,这与其经济发展和比较优势地理条件有关,渭南和商洛的生态安全水平较差。第三,陕西省大多数城市的ESI保持在三级。从2000年到2006年,陕西的ESI呈上升趋势;然而,这种增长的趋势没有保持,陕西近一半的城市生态安全水平略有下降。四个,西安和汉中的ESI未来将保持在较高水平,而商洛市的生态安全形势,渭南,玉林可能会在未来几年变得非常贫穷。
    How to measure the overall level of regional social economy, resources, and environment and how to grasp the coordinated development between them has become a hot issue. In this paper, the driving force-pressure-state-response (DPSR) model is used to build an ecological security index (ESI) system to measure the overall ecological security level of social economy, resources, and environment. In addition, dynamic nonlinear auto regressive (NAR) neural network is used to predict the ESI level to achieve the purpose of early warning. First, the results show that the weight of the employment rate, the proportion of students in colleges, and the per capita consumption level are relatively high, which play an important role for the ecological security level of Shaanxi Province. Second, Xi\'an City has been the best level in ecological security level, the ecological security of Southwest Shaanxi is relatively good, which is related to its economic development and comparative advantage geographical conditions, while the ecological security level of Weinan and Shangluo are poor. Third, the ESI of most cities in Shaanxi Province is maintained at grade III. The ESI in Shaanxi has an upward trend from 2000 to 2006; however, the trend of this increase has not been maintained, and nearly half of the cities in Shaanxi have slightly decreased the ecological security level. Four, the ESI of Xi\'an and Hanzhong will remain at a high level in the future, while the ecological security situation of Shangluo, Weinan, and Yulin probably become very poor in the next years.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has posed a severe threat to public health worldwide. In this study, we aimed to evaluate several digital data streams as early warning signals of COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada, the US and their provinces and states. Two types of terms including symptoms and preventive measures were used to filter Twitter and Google Trends data. We visualized and correlated the trends for each source of data against confirmed cases for all provinces and states. Subsequently, we attempted to find anomalies in indicator time-series to understand the lag between the warning signals and real-word outbreak waves. For Canada, we were able to detect a maximum of 83% of initial waves 1 week earlier using Google searches on symptoms. We divided states in the US into two categories: category I if they experienced an initial wave and category II if the states have not experienced the initial wave of the outbreak. For the first category, we found that tweets related to symptoms showed the best prediction performance by predicting 100% of first waves about 2-6 days earlier than other data streams. We were able to only detect up to 6% of second waves in category I. On the other hand, 78% of second waves in states of category II were predictable 1-2 weeks in advance. In addition, we discovered that the most important symptoms in providing early warnings are fever and cough in the US. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread around the world, the work presented here is an initial effort for future COVID-19 outbreaks.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Groundwater pollution early warning has been regarded as an effective tool for regional groundwater pollution prevention, especially in China. In this study, the systemic model was established to assess the groundwater pollution early warning by integrating the present situation of groundwater quality (Q), groundwater quality trend (T) and groundwater pollution risk (R). The model integrated spatial and temporal variation of groundwater quality, and combined the state and process of the groundwater pollution. Q, T and R were assessed by the methods of fuzzy comprehensive assessment, Spearman or nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test, and overlay index, respectively. Taking the Luoyang City as an example, the groundwater pollution early warning mapping was generated, and verified by corresponding the groundwater quality classes and the early warning degrees. The results showed that the groundwater was dominated by the levels of no warning and light warning, which accounted for 77% of the study area. The serious and tremendous warning areas were affected by the worse trend and relatively bad/bad present situations of groundwater quality with the typical contaminants of total hardness, nitrate, Hg and COD. In summary, the present situation of groundwater quality was the most important factor of groundwater pollution early warning mapping in the study area. The worse trend of groundwater quality played equally a key role in the local regions, as well as the high pollution risk, which was mainly affected by the pollution source loading. Targeted measures for groundwater pollution prevention were proposed in the corresponding degrees of groundwater pollution early warning. The QTR model was proved to be effective for assessing the regional groundwater pollution early warning. The accuracy of the model could be improved if there is further data acquisition of groundwater quality in longer time series and in larger number, and further investigation of pollution sources. The QTR model is proposed and proved to be effective for assessing regional groundwater pollution early warning.
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