developing country

发展中国家
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    涉及三轮车机动人力车(3-WMR)的交通事故令人担忧发展中国家的公共卫生和社会经济问题。虽然大多数早期的研究都涉及四轮和两轮车的安全分析,在理解安全动态方面存在明显差距,特别是影响3-WMR事故的危险因素。本研究旨在通过探索影响3-WMR撞车的潜在风险因素来解决这一差距,利用具有均值异质性的相关随机参数多项Logit模型(CRPMNLMHM)。该建模框架通过捕获随机参数之间的关联来推进经典的随机参数模型,更全面地了解与3-WMR相关的碰撞风险。实证分析借鉴了拉瓦尔品第市RESCUE1122维护的三年交通事故记录(2017-2019年),巴基斯坦。建模框架之间的比较评估表明,CRPMNLMHM的表现优于同行。均值异质性的模型评估确定了两个重要变量,即,年轻的年龄和夜晚,产生统计上显著的随机参数。此外,该模型的结果表明,3-WMR碰撞中的致命和严重伤害结果受到与时间特征相关的几个属性的影响(周末,夜间,和非高峰指标),司机简介(年轻,年龄较大,和超速行驶),张贴的速度限制(>70公里/小时),天气条件(下雨),和碰撞特性(与行人碰撞,卡车,或3-WMR倾覆)。本研究的发现提供了宝贵的见解,强调考虑导致3-WMR碰撞损伤严重程度的变量中未观察到的异质性的重要性。此外,根据调查结果,提出了一套政策含义,这将指导安全从业人员制定更有效的对策来解决与3-WMR相关的安全问题。
    Traffic crashes involving three-wheeler motorized rickshaw (3-WMR) are alarming public health and socioeconomic concerns in developing countries. While most of the earlier studies have dealt with safety analysis of four- and two-wheelers, there is a noticeable gap in understanding the safety dynamics, especially the risk factors affecting the crashes involving 3-WMR. The present study aims to address this gap by exploring potential risk factors influencing 3-WMR crashes, utilizing a correlated random parameters multinomial logit model with heterogeneity in means (CRPMNLMHM). This modeling framework advances the classic random parameters model by capturing associations among random parameters, providing a more comprehensive understanding of crash risks associated with 3-WMR. The empirical analysis draws on three years of traffic crash records (2017-2019) maintained by RESCUE 1122 in Rawalpindi city, Pakistan. A comparative assessment between the modeling frameworks demonstrated that CRPMNLMHM outperformed its counterparts. Model assessment for heterogeneity in the means identifies two significant variables, i.e., young age and nighttime, which yield statistically significant random parameters. In addition, the model\'s results suggest that fatal and severe injury outcomes in 3-WMR crashes are affected by several attributes related to temporal characteristics (weekend, nighttime, and off-peak indicators), driver profiles (young, older aged, and speeding), posted speed limits (>70 kmph), weather conditions (raining), and crash characteristics (collision with pedestrians, trucks, or 3-WMR overturning). The present study\'s findings offer invaluable insights, emphasizing the significance of considering for unobserved heterogeneity in variables contributing to the injury severity of 3-WMR crashes. Moreover, in light of the findings, a set of policy implications are suggested, which will guide safety practitioners to develop more effective countermeasures to address safety issues associated with 3-WMRs.
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  • 文章类型: Multicenter Study
    目的:中枢神经系统(CNS)肿瘤是全世界儿童最常见的实体恶性肿瘤,包括亚美尼亚。本研究旨在分析流行病学数据,治疗,在过去的26年中,亚美尼亚儿童和年轻人(≤25岁)患有中枢神经系统肿瘤的结局。
    方法:我们收集了1995年1月1日至2020年12月31日在亚美尼亚选定地点接受治疗的儿童和年轻成人患者的数据。按性别分列的发病率,诊断时的年龄,从第一次投诉到诊断的时间,组织病理学结果,治疗策略,并发症,计算总生存率(OS)。
    结果:多中心数据分析显示,在26年的时间里,有149例患者被诊断为原发性中枢神经系统肿瘤。其中,84(56.4%)为男性。诊断时的中位年龄为7岁(范围,3个月至25年),从第一次投诉到诊断的中位时间为2个月(范围,1周至70个月)。髓母细胞瘤和其他胚胎性肿瘤(47),低级别胶质瘤(32),高级别胶质瘤(22)是最常见的恶性肿瘤。室管膜瘤,颅咽管瘤,生殖细胞肿瘤,在22例患者中观察到其他恶性肿瘤。对于26名患者,没有组织病理学或放射学诊断.98例(65.8%)患者获得了随访信息。整个研究组的5年OS率为67.7%。
    结论:与国际数据一致,胚胎性肿瘤,神经胶质瘤是亚美尼亚最常见的中枢神经系统恶性肿瘤。在研究期间,亚美尼亚往往无法获得多模式治疗,尤其是早期病例。
    OBJECTIVE: Central nervous system (CNS) tumors are the most common solid malignancies in children worldwide, including in Armenia. The current study aims to analyze epidemiological data, treatment, and outcomes of children and young adults (≤25 years) with CNS tumors in Armenia during the last 26 years.
    METHODS: We collected data from pediatric and young adult patients treated in selected sites in Armenia from 1st January 1995 to 31st December 2020. Incidence by sex, age at diagnosis, time from first complaints to diagnosis, histopathology results, treatment strategies, complications, and overall survival (OS) rates were calculated.
    RESULTS: The multicenter data analysis revealed 149 patients with diagnosed primary CNS tumors over 26 years. Among them, 84 (56.4%) were male. The median age at diagnosis was 7 years (range, 3 months to 25 years), and the median time from the first complaints to diagnosis was 2 months (range, 1 week to 70 months). Medulloblastomas and other embryonal tumors (47), low-grade gliomas (32), and high-grade gliomas (22) were the most commonly diagnosed malignancies. Ependymomas, craniopharyngiomas, germ cell tumors, and other malignancies were observed in 22 patients. For 26 patients, no histopathological or radiological diagnosis was available. Follow-up information was available for 98 (65.8%) patients. The 5-year OS rate for the whole study group was 67.7%.
    CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with international data, embryonal tumors, and gliomas were the most commonly diagnosed CNS malignancies in Armenia. Multimodal treatment was often not available in Armenia during the study period, especially for early cases.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    与指定的人行横道上的行人相比,沿着道路边缘行走的行人更加暴露和脆弱。通常,他们仍然无视与车辆潜在碰撞的迫在眉睫的危险,与其他人相比,涉及这些行人的撞车相对独特。虽然先前的研究已经认识到周围的照明条件会影响交通事故,不同照明条件对步行行人损伤严重程度的影响仍未探索。这项研究调查了各种照明条件下,风险因素对步行行人碰撞伤害严重程度的影响变化。从加纳获得的步行行人碰撞数据的初步稳定性测试表明,在每种照明条件下,大多数风险因素对伤害严重程度的影响可能不同。保证为每种照明条件估计单独的模型。因此,数据是根据照明条件分组的,并且在均值方法中采用具有异质性的随机参数Logit模型来估计不同的模型,以捕获碰撞数据中不同程度的未观察到的异质性。从结果来看,重型车辆,肩膀存在,在白天条件下,发现老年司机会导致致命的行人在道路上行走的严重后果,男性行人和超速驾驶的指标被认为与夜间无灯道路上的死亡人数有更强的关联,周二和周三发生的撞车事故在夜间照明的道路上可能会很严重。从边际效应估计来看,尽管一些解释变量在行人步行撞车事故中的各种照明条件下显示出一致的影响,例如年龄<25岁和25至44岁的行人在不同照明条件下表现出显著的影响变化,支持风险因素影响不稳定的发现。Further,样本外模拟强调了不同照明条件之间的因素效应变化,强调提高能见度可以在显著减少与行人在道路上行走相关的死亡方面发挥关键作用。有针对性的工程,教育,并从有趣的见解中提出执法对策,以改善本地和国际行人安全。
    Pedestrians walking along the road\'s edge are more exposed and vulnerable than those on designated crosswalks. Often, they remain oblivious to the imminent perils of potential collisions with vehicles, making crashes involving these pedestrians relatively unique compared to others. While previous research has recognized that the surrounding lighting conditions influence traffic crashes, the effect of different lighting conditions on walking-along-the-road pedestrian injury severity outcomes remains unexplored. This study examines the variations in the impact of risk factors on walking-along-the-road pedestrian-involved crash injury severity across various lighting conditions. Preliminary stability tests on the walking-along-the-road pedestrian-involved crash data obtained from Ghana revealed that the effect of most risk factors on injury severity outcomes is likely to differ under each lighting condition, warranting the estimation of separate models for each lighting condition. Thus, the data were grouped based on the lighting conditions, and different models were estimated employing the random parameter logit model with heterogeneity in the means approach to capture different levels of unobserved heterogeneity in the crash data. From the results, heavy vehicles, shoulder presence, and aged drivers were found to cause fatal pedestrian walking-along-the-road severity outcomes during daylight conditions, indicators for male pedestrians and speeding were identified to have stronger associations with fatalities on roads with no light at night, and crashes occurring on Tuesdays and Wednesdays were likely to be severe on lit roads at night. From the marginal effect estimates, although some explanatory variables showed consistent effects across various lighting conditions in pedestrian walking-along-the-road crashes, such as pedestrians aged < 25 years and between 25 and 44 years exhibited significant variations in their impact across different lighting conditions, supporting the finding that the effect of risk factors are unstable. Further, the out-of-sample simulations underscored the shifts in factor effects between different lighting conditions, highlighting that enhancing visibility could play a pivotal role in significantly reducing fatalities associated with pedestrians walking along the road. Targeted engineering, education, and enforcement countermeasures are proposed from the interesting insights drawn to improve pedestrian safety locally and internationally.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    固体燃料使用(SFU)在大多数发展中国家很常见,会释放许多有害的空气污染物,对人类健康构成高风险。全球疾病负担(GBD)研究强调了与巴基斯坦家庭SFU相关的风险,然而,由于SFU上的数据很少,能源堆积不明,不确定性很高。这项研究进行了一项实地运动,旨在收集有关巴基斯坦家庭能源结构的第一手数据。第一次调查是在旁遮普和阿扎德克什米尔,并揭示了堆叠的能源使用普遍存在,尤其是烹饪。与非SFU相比,SFU家庭(主要使用SFU的家庭)的堆叠更为明显。由于可用资源和经济条件不同,阿扎德克什米尔和旁遮普之间存在显着实质性差异。木质材料在阿扎德克什米尔占近70%,但在旁遮普,煤气经常用于烹饪。仅调查家庭主要能源可能会高估使用时间较长的主要能源类型,但低估了其他补充剂,表明家庭能源研究中多种能源调查的偏好。
    Solid fuel use (SFU) is common in most developing countries and would release many hazardous air pollutants posing high risks on human health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study highlighted risks associated with household SFU in Pakistan, however, high uncertainties prevail because of scanty data on SFU and unaccounted energy stacking. This study conducted a field campaign aiming at collecting first-hand data on household energy mix in Pakistan. The first survey was in Punjab and Azad Kashmir, and revealed that stacked energy use was pervasive, especially for cooking. The stacking was found to be much more obvious in SFU households (defined as those using SFU dominantly) compared to those non-SFU. There were significantly substantial differences between Azad Kashmir and Punjab because of distinct resources available and economic conditions. Woody materials comprised up to nearly 70% in Azad Kashmir, but in Punjab, gas was frequently used for cooking. Only investigating primary household energy would probably overestimate main energy types that being used for a longer time but underestimated other supplements, suggesting the preference of multiple-energy surveys in household energy studies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在过去的十年里,金融发展一直是利益相关者和政策制定者的重要辩论。金融发展是创新和二氧化碳排放的先决条件,巴黎气候峰会(COP21)在全球经济衰退之后,金融发展继续努力解决二氧化碳排放问题。然而,很少关注金融发展在创新和二氧化碳排放关系中的作用,特别是在发展中国家的背景下。本研究通过金融发展的调节作用来探讨创新与二氧化碳排放之间的关系,特别是在发展中国家的背景下。利用动态面板阈值方法,本研究利用了1990年至2014年26个国家的数据.我们的发现表明,当股票市场价值与私人信贷比率低于1.71时,创新会对碳排放的减少产生积极影响,而当比率超过此阈值时,则会观察到相反的效果。我们认为,调查结果扩大了关于发展中国家金融发展的辩论。结果表明,发展中国家应将其国内资源分配给金融发展和减贫,而不仅仅是解决环境问题。此外,创新和二氧化碳排放之间更可持续的平衡可以通过金融发展受益,其影响可能是实现可持续发展的结果。
    Over the past decade, financial development has been a prominent debate for stakeholders and policymakers alike. Financial development are prerequisites for innovation and CO2 emissions, followed by the Paris Climate Summit (COP21). In the wake of the global economic recession, financial development continues to address CO2 emissions efforts. However, scant attention is paid to the role of financial development in innovation and CO2 emissions relationship, especially in the context of developing countries. The current study explores the relationship between innovation and CO2 emissions through moderating role of financial development, especially in the context of developing countries. Utilizing a dynamic panel threshold approach, the current study utilizes data from 26 countries between 1990 and 2014. Our findings reveal that innovation positively impacts the reduction of carbon emissions when the stock market value-to-private credit ratio is below 1.71, while an opposite effect is observed when the ratio exceeds this threshold. We believe that the findings broaden the debate on financial development in developing countries. The results revealed that developing countries should allocate their domestic resources to financial development and poverty reduction, rather than solely addressing environmental concerns. In addition, a more sustainable balance between innovation and CO2 emissions could benefit through financial development and the impact may be the result in terms of achieving sustainable development.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文探讨了孟加拉国与Covid-19相关的腐败。具体来说,我们分析了孟加拉国卫生部门与新冠肺炎相关的腐败问题。我们还探讨了政府官员采用的否认策略如何使问题恶化。使用科恩(2001)的否认策略概念,我们分析了大流行期间的媒体报道,这些报道强调了孟加拉国卫生部门发生的与Covid-19相关的腐败。我们的分析表明,新冠肺炎大流行引发了新一波腐败,特别是在采购测试套件和个人防护装备(PPE)方面,以及颁发虚假的COVID-19证书。我们呼吁深入调查孟加拉国和其他发展中国家与新冠肺炎有关的腐败,通过与政策制定者和卫生专业人员的访谈,上下文和文化价值观。我们的论文扩展了正在进行的关于新冠肺炎相关腐败及其对公共卫生部门影响的辩论。
    This paper explores Covid-19-related corruption in Bangladesh. Specifically, we analyse the issue of Covid-19-related corruption in the health sector of Bangladesh. We also explore how denial strategies adapted by government officials have worsened the problem. Using Cohen\'s notion of denial strategies (Cohen 2001. States of Denial. Cambridge: Polity), we analyse media reports during the pandemic that highlighted Covid-19-related corruption occurring in the Bangladeshi health sector. Our analyses reveal that the Covid-19 pandemic has given rise to a new wave of corruption, particularly in the procurement of testing kits and personal protective equipment (PPE), as well as the issuance of false Covid-19 certificates. We call for an in-depth investigation of Covid-19-related corruption in Bangladesh and other developing countries that follows similar social, contextual and cultural values via interviews with policymakers and health professionals. Our paper extends the ongoing debate on Covid-19-related corruption and its impacts on public health sectors.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目前,人们是否会采取行动避免空气污染的危害和不同群体的异质性行为,缺乏研究。本文的目的是研究空气污染对新生儿和怀孕时间产生的差异影响。
    根据2011年对中国12个城市共32家医院的新生儿进行的调查,并与城市级空气污染数据进行匹配后,然后使用多元回归统计方法来检查特定时期的污染水平如何与该特定时期的概念数量相关,在控制区域和季节固定效应后。
    我们首先证明了怀孕期间暴露于空气污染与不良分娩结局的显著增加有关。最重要的是,实证结果表明,在严重空气污染期间,概念数量显着减少。
    证据表明,空气污染可能导致一些家庭推迟受孕,以减少对新生儿结局的不利影响。这有助于我们更多地了解空气污染的社会成本,然后制定更准确的环境政策。
    Currently, there is a lack of research on whether people will take action to avoid the harm of air pollution and the heterogeneous behavior of different groups. The goal of this paper is to examine the effects of air pollution on the resulting differential effects on newborns and the timing of pregnancy.
    Based on a survey of newborns in a total of 32 hospitals in 12 cities across China in 2011, and after matching with city-level air pollution data, a multiple regression statistical method is then used to examine how the pollution level in a certain period is related to the number of conceptions in that certain period, after controlling for region and season fixed effects.
    We first demonstrate that exposure to air pollution during pregnancy is associated with a significant increase in adverse birth outcomes. Most importantly, the empirical results show that the number of conceptions decreased significantly during periods of severe air pollution.
    Evidence suggests that air pollution may be causing some families to delay conception to reduce the possible adverse impact on neonatal outcomes. This helps us to understand the social cost of air pollution more, and then make more accurate environmental policies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    分析儿童造血干细胞移植(HSCT)的住院费用,从而支持临床决策。
    研究人群是在三级儿童医院接受HSCT的儿童(四川,中国)2020年1月1日至2021年12月31日。计算移植后100天总成本的中值和四分位数范围(IQR)。根据年龄进行亚组分析,性别,移植类型,和移植后的并发症。分析了亚组之间的成本差异,以确定其是否对总成本产生影响。
    共142名儿科患者纳入研究,总费用为250721.78元(197019.16-315740.52,1元约合0.15美元)。药品费用占总费用的51.85%,其次是医疗服务费用(12.57%)和治疗费用(12.24%)。就移植类型而言,自体移植的费用低于同种异体移植(115722.98元vs.256043.99元,p<0.05),人类白细胞抗原(HLA)完全匹配的成本低于部分匹配的成本(213760.88元vs.294044.84元,p<0.05)。至于移植后的并发症,<3种并发症的患者费用低于≥3种并发症的患者(212893.25元vs.286064.60元,p<0.05),且严重性≤2级的费用低于>2级的费用(235569.37元vs.280061.58元,p<0.05)。患者的年龄和性别并没有导致总费用的统计学差异,而移植类型和移植后并发症影响总成本。
    对于儿科患者,与HSCT治疗相关的移植后100天的总费用是相当大的。供体和受体之间的HLA相容性,移植后并发症是影响总费用的重要因素。
    To analyze the inpatient cost of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) in children, so as to support clinical decision-making.
    Study population were children who received HSCT in a tertiary children\'s hospital (Sichuan, China) between 1st January 2020 and 31st December 2021. The median and interquartile range (IQR) of total cost at 100 days post transplantation were calculated. Subgroup analyses were conducted based on age, gender, transplantation types, and post-transplant complications. The cost differences between subgroups were analyzed to determine whether it had an impact on the total costs.
    A total of 142 pediatric patients were included in the study with a total cost of 250721.78 yuan (197019.16-315740.52, 1 yuan equals to around 0.15 US dollars). Drug costs accounted for 51.85% of the total cost, followed by medical service costs (12.57%) and treatment expenses (12.24%). In terms of transplantation types, the cost of autologous transplantation was lower than that of allogeneic transplantation (115722.98 yuan vs. 256043.99 yuan, p < 0.05), and the cost of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) complete matched was lower compared with that of partial matched (213760.88 yuan vs. 294044.84 yuan, p < 0.05). As for post-transplant complications, cases with <3 types of complications cost less than those with ≥3 types (212893.25 yuan vs. 286064.60 yuan, p < 0.05), and those with severity ≤ grade 2 cost less than those > grade 2 (235569.37 yuan vs. 280061.58 yuan, p < 0.05). Age and gender of patients did not lead to statistical differences in the total cost, while the transplantation types and post-transplant complications influenced the total cost.
    The total cost at 100 days post transplantation associated with HSCT treatment were substantial for pediatric patients. The HLA compatibility between donors and recipients, and post-transplant complications were important factors affecting the total cost.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    儿童血红蛋白(Hb)浓度低和贫血对发育和功能有不利影响,其中一些可能会在以后的生活中产生后果。据报道,暴露于环境空气污染与贫血有关,但几乎没有针对低收入和中等收入国家(LMICs)的证据,儿童贫血患病率最高的地方。我们旨在确定长期环境细颗粒物(空气动力学直径≤2.5μm[PM2.5])暴露是否与生活在36个LMIC中的5岁以下儿童的Hb水平和贫血患病率相关。我们使用了人口和健康调查数据,在2010年至2019年之间收集,其中包括血液Hb测量。卫星估算的年平均PM2.5是主要的暴露变量,这与儿童的居住地有关。根据标准世界卫生组织指南(Hb<11g/dL)定义贫血。使用多变量线性和逻辑回归模型检查PM2.5与Hb水平和贫血患病率的关系,分别。我们检查了环境PM2.5的影响是否因儿童的性别和年龄而改变,家庭财富指数,和城市/农村居住地。针对相关协变量调整了模型,包括其他户外污染物和家用烹饪燃料。这项研究包括154,443名儿童,其中89,904人(58.2%)贫血。国家级贫血患病率为15.8%至87.9%。PM2.5平均暴露量为33.0(±21.6)μg/m3。调整后的模型显示,PM2.5年浓度增加10μg/m3与贫血的可能性更大(OR=1.09895%CI:1.087,1.109)。PM2.5的相同增加与平均Hb水平降低0.075g/dL相关(95%CI:0.081,0.068)。有证据表明,家庭财富指数和居住地对效应产生了影响,对财富较低的五分之一人口的儿童和农村地区的儿童造成更大的不利影响。每年的PM2.5暴露与血液Hb水平下降相关,贫血的风险更大,生活在36个低收入国家的5岁以下儿童。
    Low haemoglobin (Hb) concentrations and anaemia in children have adverse effects on development and functioning, some of which may have consequences in later life. Exposure to ambient air pollution is reported to be associated with anaemia, but there is little evidence specific to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where childhood anaemia prevalence is greatest. We aimed to determine if long-term ambient fine particulate matter (≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter [PM2.5]) exposure was associated with Hb levels and the prevalence of anaemia in children aged <5 years living in 36 LMICs. We used Demographic and Health Survey data, collected between 2010 and 2019, which included blood Hb measurements. Satellite-derived estimates of annual average PM2.5 was the main exposure variable, which was linked to children\'s area of residence. Anaemia was defined according to standard World Health Organization guidelines (Hb < 11 g/dL). The association of PM2.5 with Hb levels and anaemia prevalence was examined using multivariable linear and logistic regression models, respectively. We examined whether the effects of ambient PM2.5 were modified by a child\'s sex and age, household wealth index, and urban/rural place of residence. Models were adjusted for relevant covariates, including other outdoor pollutants and household cooking fuel. The study included 154,443 children, of which 89,904 (58.2%) were anaemic. The country-level prevalence of anaemia ranged from 15.8% to 87.9%. Mean PM2.5 exposure was 33.0 (±21.6) μg/m3. The adjusted model showed that a 10 μg/m3 increase in annual PM2.5 concentration was associated with greater odds of anaemia (OR = 1.098 95% CI: 1.087, 1.109). The same increase in PM2.5 was associated with a decrease in average Hb levels of 0.075 g/dL (95% CI: 0.081, 0.068). There was evidence of effect modification by household wealth index and place of residence, with greater adverse effects in children from lower wealth quintiles and children in rural areas. Exposure to annual PM2.5 was cross-sectionally associated with decreased blood Hb levels, and greater risk of anaemia, in children aged <5 years living in 36 LMICs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    垃圾处理是世界各国城市面临的问题。近年来,中国,作为一个发展中国家,城市生活垃圾分类是解决城市生活垃圾问题的重要策略之一。中国以前的城市生活垃圾分类政策都只是倡导性的。直到2019年1月,《上海市城市生活垃圾管理条例》正式颁布,成为中国第一个强制性的城市生活垃圾分类政策,标志着中国城市生活垃圾强制分类时代的开始。上海城市生活垃圾强制分类政策实施18个月后的实施效果如何,发展中国家能否持续有效地实施城市生活垃圾强制分类政策?这些都是政府关注的重要问题。学术界,和公众。建立三阶段DEA模型,对2019年2月和2020年7月上海市城市生活垃圾强制分类政策实施效果进行评价。研究发现,上海市城市生活垃圾强制分类政策的平均效率在研究期间达到0.906,表明该政策执行得相当好。然而,18个月中只有5个月政策完全有效(达到效率水平1),这表明仍有改进的空间。无法在几个月内实现全部有效性的主要原因归因于规模效率。同时,一般公共预算收支的环境变量对上海市政策执行效果有正向和负向的影响。研究结果可为我国今后全面实施城市生活垃圾强制分类政策提供经验,也可为其他发展中国家城市实施城市生活垃圾强制分类政策提供有价值的案例研究信息。
    Waste treatment is a problem faced by cities all over the world. In recent years, China, as a developing country, regards the municipal solid waste (MSW) classification as one of the important strategies to deal with the MSW problem. The previous MSW classification policies in China were all only advocacy in nature. It was not until January 2019 that the \"Regulations on the Management of MSW in Shanghai\" was officially promulgated as China\'s first compulsory MSW classification policy, marking the beginning of an era of compulsory MSW classification in China. How effective is the implementation of Shanghai\'s compulsory MSW classification policy 18 months after its implementation and can developing countries continuously and effectively implement compulsory MSW classification policies? These are important issues of concern to the government, academia, and the public. This paper establishes a three-stage DEA model to evaluate the implementation effect of the compulsory MSW classification policies in Shanghai during the period of February 2019 and July 2020. The study found that the average efficiency of the compulsory MSW classification policy in Shanghai reached 0.906 during the study period, indicating that the policy was executed reasonably well. However, there are only 5 months in 18 months that the policy was fully effective (reaching efficiency level 1), suggesting that there is still room for improvement. The main reason for not being able to achieve full effectiveness in some months is attributed to scale efficiency. At the same time, the general public budget revenue and expenditure of environmental variables have positive and negative impacts on the policy implementation effect in Shanghai. The research results can provide experience for China to comprehensively implement the compulsory MSW classification policy in the future and can also provide valuable case study information for cities in other developing countries to implement the compulsory MSW classification policy.
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