背景:裂谷热(RVF)被世界卫生组织列为优先疾病之一。本研究旨在描述RVF病毒的全球分布,并了解其演变的动态变化,患病率,在打破地理障碍的过程中爆发。
方法:采用随机效应模型,进行系统文献综述和meta分析以估计宿主的RVF患病率。使用NCBI数据库中的核苷酸序列进行基于分子钟的系统发育分析以估计RVF病毒核苷酸取代率。RVF病毒流行率,核苷酸取代率,并对两次打破地理障碍之前和之后的疫情进行了比较,分别。
结果:从1930年到2022年,在48个国家的26种宿主中报告了RVF病毒。由于RVF打破了地理障碍,(1)核苷酸替代率在2000年首次传播到非洲之后显着增加;(2)人类的患病率从1.92%(95%CI:0.86-3.25%)显着增加到3.03%(95%CI:2.09-4.12%)在1977年打破了撒哈拉沙漠的地理障碍之后,在2000年之后达到5.24%(95%CI:3.81-6.82%),(3)在人类中蝙蝠和人类之间可能存在RVF病毒溢出,并加速人类的病毒替代率。在疫情爆发期间,在人类中,RVF病毒替代率加速。75.00%的裂谷热爆发发生在洪水和(或)强降雨后0-2个月。
结论:RVF引起大流行的风险增加,需要在“一个健康”上进行全球合作,以防止潜在的流行病。
BACKGROUND: Rift valley fever (RVF) is listed as one of prioritized diseases by WHO. This study aims to describe RVF virus\' landscape distribution globally, and to insight dynamics change of its evolution, prevalence, and outbreaks in the process of breaking geographical barriers.
METHODS: A systematic literature review and meta-analyses was conducted to estimate RVF prevalence by hosts using a random-effect model. Molecular clock-based phylogenetic analyses were performed to estimate RVF virus nucleotide substitution rates using nucleotide sequences in NCBI database. RVF virus prevalence, nucleotide substitution rates, and outbreaks were compared before and after breaking geographical barriers twice, respectively.
RESULTS: RVF virus was reported from 26 kinds of hosts covering 48 countries from 1930 to 2022. Since RVF broke geographical barriers, (1) nucleotide substitution rates significantly increased after firstly spreading out of Africa in 2000, (2) prevalence in humans significantly increased from 1.92 % (95 % CI: 0.86-3.25 %) to 3.03 % (95 % CI: 2.09-4.12 %) after it broke Sahara Desert geographical barriers in 1977, and to 5.24 % (95 % CI: 3.81-6.82 %) after 2000, (3) RVF outbreaks in humans and the number of wildlife hosts presented increasing trends. RVF virus spillover may exist between bats and humans, and accelerate viral substitution rates in humans. During outbreaks, the RVF virus substitution rates accelerated in humans. 60.00 % RVF outbreaks occurred 0-2 months after floods and (or) heavy rainfall.
CONCLUSIONS: RVF has the increasing risk to cause pandemics, and global collaboration on \"One Health\" is needed to prevent potential pandemics.