背景:根据第七次全国人口普查,中国的生育率低于1.5,标志着一个具有潜在风险的重大国家问题。为了应对这种低出生率,中国政府放宽了计划生育政策,出台了扶持措施。
目的:生育政策的变化引起了中国人民的广泛关注。本文旨在以微博为窗口,研究公众对三胎抚养政策的反应。目标是对当前观点提供更平衡的评估,使政策制定者能够制定更好的生育率信息,特别是在预期公众对有争议的政策反应不佳的时候。
方法:本研究使用爬虫从新浪微博收集数据。通过对微博有关三胎政策的意见挖掘,从关注内容和情感倾向两个角度分析了微博用户对三胎政策的在线观点。使用中断的时间序列,它检查了在线对政策的看法的变化,将政策文档与微博的时间节点进行匹配。
结果:公众对与改善生育保险有关的政策表现出极大的兴趣,并提供了短期的积极反馈,出生奖励,和住房补贴。相比之下,对延长产假等政策一直有负面反应,这尤其引起了妇女对未来就业和婚姻权利保护的担忧。在社交媒体上,公众对三胎生育政策的关注主要集中在保护妇女权利上,特别是分娩后的合法权利,以及与身心健康有关的问题。育儿支持和经济压力也是热门话题,涉及多子女家庭的日常开支,托儿服务,住房压力。然而,这项研究还表明,不育或单身女性表达了强烈的生育愿望,但是由于个人医疗保险制度的局限性,这个愿望没有得到充分满足。
■我们的研究表明,使用近乎实时的社交媒体数据,快速灵活地评估公众对中国各种三胎支持政策的反应的可行性。这些信息可以帮助决策者预测公众对未来大流行三胎政策的反应,并确保有足够的资源用于解决面对科学知情但有争议的负面情绪和分歧程度的增加,限制。
BACKGROUND: According to the Seventh National Census,
China\'s fertility rate is less than 1.5, marking a significant national issue with potential risks. To counter this low birth rate, the Chinese government has relaxed family planning policies and introduced supportive measures.
OBJECTIVE: Changes in birth policy have attracted considerable attention from the people of
China. This article aims to study the public\'s response to the three-child support policy using Weibo as a window. The goal is to provide a more balanced evaluation of current perspectives, enabling policymakers to formulate better fertility information, particularly when anticipating a poor public response to controversial policies.
METHODS: This research uses a crawler to gather data from Sina Weibo. Through opinion mining of Weibo posts on the three-child policy, Weibo users\' online opinions on the three-child policy are analyzed from two perspectives: their attention content and sentiment tendency. Using an interrupted time series, it examines changes in online views on the policy, matching policy documents to the time nodes of Weibo posts.
RESULTS: The public has shown great interest in and provided short-term positive feedback on policies related to improving maternity insurance, birth rewards, and housing subsidies. In contrast, there has been a continuous negative response to policies such as extending maternity leave, which has particularly sparked concerns among women regarding future employment and marital rights protection. On social media, the public\'s attention to the three-child birth policy has focused mainly on the protection of women\'s rights, especially legal rights after childbirth, and issues related to physical and mental health. Child-rearing support and economic pressure are also hot topics, involving the daily expenses of multichild families, childcare services, and housing pressure. However, this study also revealed that infertile or single women express a strong desire to have children, but due to limitations in the personal medical insurance system, this desire has not been fully satisfied.
UNASSIGNED: Our study demonstrates the feasibility of a rapid and flexible method for evaluating the public response to various three-child supportive policies in
China using near real-time social media data. This information can help policy makers anticipate public responses to future pandemic three-child policies and ensure that adequate resources are dedicated to addressing increases in negative sentiment and levels of disagreement in the face of scientifically informed but controversial, restrictions.