Fall risk

跌倒风险
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:目前尚无预测中风后髋部骨折的模型。本研究旨在调查导致脑卒中患者髋部骨折的危险因素,并建立风险预测模型以可视化该风险。
    方法:回顾性分析徐州医科大学附属医院2014年6月至2017年6月收治的439例脑卒中伴或不伴髋部骨折患者作为训练组。并收集2020年6月至2023年6月哈尔滨医科大学附属第一医院和徐州医科大学附属医院同类型患者83例作为检测集。根据是否存在髋部骨折将患者分为骨折组和非骨折组。采用多因素logistic回归分析筛选有意义的因素。基于多因素分析建立预测髋部骨折发生风险的列线图,并使用受试者工作特性曲线(ROC)评估性能,校正曲线,和决策曲线分析(DCA)。创建了一个网络计算器,以促进临床医生更方便的互动体验。
    结果:在训练集中,脑卒中后髋部骨折35例(7.9%),在测试集中,该数据为13例(15.6%)。在训练集中,单因素分析显示两组跌倒次数有显著差异,吸烟,高血压,糖皮质激素,笔划数,小型精神状态检查(MMSE),视敏度水平,美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表(NIHSS),伯格平衡量表(BBS),说话时停止行走(SWWT)(P<0.05)。多因素分析显示跌倒次数[OR=17.104,95%CI(3.727-78.489),P=0.000],NIHSS[OR=1.565,95%CI(1.193-2.052),P=0.001],SWWT[OR=12.080,95%CI(2.398-60.851),P=0.003]是与新发骨折呈正相关的独立危险因素。骨密度[OR=0.155,95%CI(0.044-0.546),P=0.012]和BBS[OR=0.840,95%CI(0.739-0.954),P=0.007]与新骨折呈负相关。训练和测试集列线图曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.939(95%CI:0.748-0.943)和0.980(95%CI:0.886-1.000),分别,校准曲线显示预测和实际状态之间的高度一致性,决策曲线下的面积分别为0.034和0.109。
    结论:跌倒的次数,骨折史,BBS得分低,NIHSS得分高,和阳性SWWT是脑卒中后髋部骨折的危险因素。基于此,开发了一个高精度的列线图和一个网络计算器(https://stroke。shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/)已创建。
    OBJECTIVE: There are currently no models for predicting hip fractures after stroke. This study wanted to investigate the risk factors leading to hip fracture in stroke patients and to establish a risk prediction model to visualize this risk.
    METHODS: We reviewed 439 stroke patients with or without hip fractures admitted to the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from June 2014 to June 2017 as the training set, and collected 83 patients of the same type from the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University and the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from June 2020 to June 2023 as the testing set. Patients were divided into fracture group and non-fracture group based on the presence of hip fractures. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen for meaningful factors. Nomogram predicting the risk of hip fracture occurrence were created based on the multifactor analysis, and performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). A web calculator was created to facilitate a more convenient interactive experience for clinicians.
    RESULTS: In training set, there were 35 cases (7.9 %) of hip fractures after stroke, while in testing set, this data was 13 cases (15.6 %). In training set, univariate analysis showed significant differences between the two groups in the number of falls, smoking, hypertension, glucocorticoids, number of strokes, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), visual acuity level, National Institute of Health stroke scale (NIHSS), Berg Balance Scale (BBS), and Stop Walking When Talking (SWWT) (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that number of falls [OR=17.104, 95 % CI (3.727-78.489), P = 0.000], NIHSS [OR=1.565, 95 % CI (1.193-2.052), P = 0.001], SWWT [OR=12.080, 95 % CI (2.398-60.851), P = 0.003] were independent risk factors positively associated with new fractures. BMD [OR = 0.155, 95 % CI (0.044-0.546), P = 0.012] and BBS [OR = 0.840, 95 % CI (0.739-0.954), P = 0.007] were negatively associated with new fractures. The area under the curve (AUC) of nomogram were 0.939 (95 % CI: 0.748-0.943) and 0.980 (95 % CI: 0.886-1.000) in training and testing sets, respectively, and the calibration curves showed a high agreement between predicted and actual status with an area under the decision curve of 0.034 and 0.109, respectively.
    CONCLUSIONS: The number of falls, fracture history, low BBS score, high NIHSS score, and positive SWWT are risk factors for hip fracture after stroke. Based on this, a nomogram with high accuracy was developed and a web calculator (https://stroke.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/) was created.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    跌倒问题对老年人的健康构成重大威胁。虽然他汀类药物可以引起肌病,这意味着它们可能会导致平衡问题并增加跌倒的风险,这还没有经过测试。我们的目的是评估他汀类药物的使用是否与较高的跌倒风险有关。
    进行了一项横断面调查研究和孟德尔随机化(MR)研究,以检查他汀类药物的使用是否与跌倒和平衡问题的风险增加有关。这项横断面研究包括来自美国人口(NHANES)的2,656名参与者,他们报告了过去一年中平衡和下降问题的信息以及他们使用他汀类药物的情况。使用单变量和多变量逻辑回归模型来研究他汀类药物使用与跌倒或经历平衡问题的可能性之间的关联。MR研究确定了五个单核苷酸多态性(SNP),可预测五个祖先群体中的他汀类药物使用:混合非洲或非洲,东亚,欧洲,西班牙裔,南亚。此外,预测跌倒风险的SNP是从英国生物银行人群获得的。进行了两个样本的MR分析,以检查遗传预测的他汀类药物使用是否会增加跌倒的风险。
    发现他汀类药物的使用与平衡和跌倒问题的可能性增加有关(平衡问题,或1.25,95CI1.02至1.55;下降问题,或1.27,95CI1.03-1.27)。亚组分析显示,65岁以下的患者在服用他汀类药物时更容易受到这些问题的影响(平衡问题,或3.42,95CI1.40至9.30;下降问题,或5.58,95CI2.04-15.40)。MR分析表明,他汀类药物的使用,作为基因代理,导致跌倒问题的风险增加(OR1.21,95%CI1.1-1.33)。
    我们的研究发现,在40岁以上的成年人中,他汀类药物的使用与平衡问题和跌倒风险增加之间存在关联。MR研究结果提示使用他汀类药物会增加跌倒风险.与65岁以上的参与者相比,65岁以下的参与者的风险更高。
    UNASSIGNED: The issue of falls poses a significant threat to the health of the elderly population. Although statins can cause myopathy, which implies that they may cause balance problems and increase the risk of falling, this has not been tested. Our objective was to assess whether the use of statins is linked to a higher risk of falls.
    UNASSIGNED: A cross-sectional survey study and Mendelian randomization (MR) study were conducted to examine whether the use of statins was associated with an increased risk of falling and balance problems. The cross-sectional study included 2,656 participants from the US population (NHANES) who reported information on balance and falling problems in the past year and their use of statins. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to investigate the association between statin use and the likelihood of falling or experiencing balance problems. The MR study identified five Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) that predict statin use across five ancestry groups: Admixed African or African, East Asian, European, Hispanic, and South Asian. Additionally, SNPs predicting the risk of falls were acquired from the UK Biobank population. A two-sample MR analysis was performed to examine whether genetically predicted statin use increased the risk of falls.
    UNASSIGNED: The use of statins was found to be associated with an increased likelihood of balance and falling problems (balance problem, OR 1.25, 95%CI 1.02 to 1.55; falling problem, OR 1.27, 95%CI 1.03-1.27). Subgroup analysis revealed that patients under the age of 65 were more susceptible to these issues when taking statins (balance problem, OR 3.42, 95%CI 1.40 to 9.30; falling problem, OR 5.58, 95%CI 2.04-15.40). The MR analysis indicated that the use of statins, as genetically proxied, resulted in an increased risk of falling problems (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.1-1.33).
    UNASSIGNED: Our study found an association between the use of statins and an increased risk of balance problems and falls in adults over 40 years old, and the MR study result suggested statin use increased risk of falls. The risk was higher in participants under 65 years old compared to those over 65 years old.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:ESPEN和EASO最近制定了关于节育性肥胖(SO)的共识标准,采用骨骼肌质量与重量(SMM/W)的比率。新的证据表明,根据体重指数(SMM/BMI)调整骨骼肌质量可以提高健康结果的预测准确性。我们旨在验证ESPEN/EASO标准,并探讨SMM/BMI调整在预测中国西部老年人跌倒中的潜在益处。
    方法:我们进行了多中心,横断面研究,包括社区居住的老年人。使用标准的ESPEN/EASO共识标准(SOESPEN)和调整SMM/BMI的修改版本(SOESPEN-M)确定SO的诊断。SOESPEN协会,SOESPEN-M,并分析了它们与跌倒的成分。
    结果:在1353名参与者中,SO的患病率为13.2%(SOESPEN)和11.4%(SOESPEN-M),随着年龄和较高的BMI水平而增加。在BMI正常的参与者中,4.2%和6.2%被发现有SOESPEN和SOESPEN-M,分别。SMM/W和SMM/BMI与跌倒风险呈负相关(分别为p=0.042和p=0.021)。在调整混杂因素后,只有SOESPEN与跌倒显着相关(优势比[OR]1.61,95%置信区间[CI]1.08至2.40),而SOESPEN-M的关联没有达到显著性(OR1.55,95%CI0.99~2.43).
    结论:这项研究在中国西部社区居住的老年人中验证了ESPEN/EASO标准(SOESPEN)及其修改版本(SOESPEN-M)。SMM/BMI调整似乎提供了对SO患病率的较低估计,只有SOESPEN显示与跌倒有显著关联。
    OBJECTIVE: The ESPEN and the EASO recently developed consensus criteria for sarcopenic obesity (SO), employing the skeletal muscle mass to weight (SMM/W) ratio. Emerging evidence suggests that adjusting skeletal muscle mass for body mass index (SMM/BMI) could enhance the predictive accuracy for health outcomes. We aimed to validate the ESPEN/EASO criteria and explore the potential benefits of the SMM/BMI adjustment in predicting falls among older adults in Western China.
    METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, cross-sectional study and included community-dwelling older adults. The diagnosis of SO was determined using the standard ESPEN/EASO consensus criteria (SOESPEN) and a modified version adjusting SMM/BMI (SOESPEN-M). The associations of SOESPEN, SOESPEN-M, and their components with falls were analyzed.
    RESULTS: Among the 1353 participants, the prevalence of SO was 13.2 % (SOESPEN) and 11.4 % (SOESPEN-M), which increased with age and higher BMI levels. Within participants with a normal BMI, 4.2 % and 6.2 % were found to have SOESPEN and SOESPEN-M, respectively. SMM/W and SMM/BMI negatively correlated with fall risk (p=0.042 and p=0.021, respectively). Upon adjusting for confounders, only SOESPEN was significantly associated with falls (odds ratios [OR] 1.61, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.08 to 2.40), whereas the association for SOESPEN-M did not achieve significance (OR 1.55, 95 % CI 0.99 to 2.43).
    CONCLUSIONS: This research validated the ESPEN/EASO criteria (SOESPEN) and their modified version (SOESPEN-M) among community-dwelling older adults in Western China. The SMM/BMI adjustment appears to offer a lower estimate of SO prevalence, with only SOESPEN showing a significant association with falls.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:作为一种老年综合征,肌肉减少症可能会加剧静态姿势控制,并增加老年人的跌倒风险。Romberg测试,一种评估静态姿势控制的简单方法,有可能预测跌倒,但很少用于评估肌肉减少的老年人的静态姿势控制和跌倒风险。
    目的:肌肉减少症如何通过影响静态姿势控制来增加跌倒风险?
    方法:44名老年人进行了Romberg检验并纳入分析。Romberg参数,包括压力中心(CoP),质心(CoM)和位移角(DA),在睁眼/闭眼条件下收集。根据亚洲工作组2019年肌肉减少症标准定义肌肉减少症。使用Morse老年人跌倒风险评估量表(MFS)评估跌倒风险,使用国际瀑布功效量表(FES-I)评估对跌倒的恐惧。采用多元线性回归模型来检验肌少症与Romberg检验参数的相关性。害怕跌倒,跌倒风险。
    结果:老年人对跌倒和跌倒风险的恐惧得分较高(分别为P<0.001和=0.006),与健康对照组相比,静态姿势控制参数(P值<0.001-0.043)更差,由多元线性回归模型证明。大多数Romberg测试参数与恐惧得分显著相关,尤其是在闭眼的情况下,对跌倒的恐惧与更高的跌倒风险评分相关(β=0.90,P=0.001)。同时,肌肉减少症的存在也显著增加了跌倒风险评分(β=10.0,P<0.001)。
    结论:肌肉减少症可能通过恶化静态姿势控制能力和增加对跌倒的恐惧而增加老年人跌倒风险。注意并努力预防肌肉减少症可能有助于减轻姿势控制功能障碍,减少对跌倒的恐惧,从而降低跌倒风险,防止跌倒事故造成严重伤害。
    BACKGROUND: As a geriatric syndrome, sarcopenia may exacerbate static postural control and increase fall risk among older adults. The Romberg test, a simple method to assess static postural control, has the potential to predict fall, but has rarely been used to assess static postural control and fall risk in sarcopenic older adults.
    OBJECTIVE: How does sarcopenia increase fall risk by affecting static postural control?
    METHODS: Forty-four older adults performed the Romberg test and were included for analyses. Romberg parameters, including Center of Pressure (CoP), Center of Mass (CoM) and Displacement Angle (DA), were collected under eyes-open/eyes-closed conditions. Sarcopenia was defined according to the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia 2019 criteria. Fall risk was assessed using the Morse Elderly Fall Risk Assessment Scale (MFS), and fear of falling was evaluated using the Falls Efficacy Scale-International (FES-I). Multivariate linear regression models were conducted to examine the associations of sarcopenia with Romberg test parameters, fear of falling, and fall risk.
    RESULTS: Sarcopenic older adults had higher scores of both fear of falling and fall risk (P<0.001 and =0.006, respectively), and worse static postural control parameters (P values ranging from <0.001-0.043) than healthy controls, demonstrated by the multivariate linear regression models. Most of the Romberg test parameters were significantly associated with fear of falling score, especially under eyes-closed condition, and fear of falling was further associated with higher fall risk score (β=0.90, P=0.001). Meanwhile, the presence of sarcopenia also significantly increased fall risk score (β=10.0, P<0.001).
    CONCLUSIONS: Sarcopenia may increase fall risk in older adults via worsen static postural control ability and increase fear of falling. Paying attention and making efforts to prevent sarcopenia may help to alleviate postural control dysfunction, decrease fear of falling, so as to reduce fall risk and prevent severe injuries caused by fall accidents.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:随着全球老龄化的推进,运动障碍综合征(DS)的患者有所增加,常伴有骨质疏松症,少肌症,和节肉性肥胖。本研究的目的是通过医学和工程方法综合分析社区居住老年受试者之间BMFI的差异,评估体重频率指数(BMFI)在老年DS患者中的应用价值。
    方法:进行了一项横断面研究,以招募60-90岁的社区居住老年受试者。进行了各种评估和测量,包括基本信息收集,步态分析,骨密度(BMD)和身体成分测量,跌倒和骨折风险等。步态分析和体重指数(BMI)在建立的模型中计算BMFI。在社区居住的老年受试者中进行了BMFI分析,并进一步分析BMFI预测运动障碍综合征(DS)的特异性和阈值。
    结果:在患有DS的老年人和没有DS的老年人之间观察到BMFI的显著差异。老年人的BMFI与骨质量有关,骨折风险,身体脂肪百分比,阑尾骨骼肌质量指数(ASMI),握力,和速度。非DS和DS组的BMFI比值比(OR)和95%置信区间(CI)为0.823(0.743-0.901),分别。受试者工作特征(ROC)分析表明,BMFI对非DS和DS具有预测价值(AUC=0.669)(P<0.05)。预测非DS和DS的最佳阈值为16.04(灵敏度=0.483,特异性=0.774)。
    结论:BMFI的测量表明,有和没有DS的老年人的肌肉骨骼状况存在差异。值得注意的是,BMFI对老年人群的DS表现出独特的预测能力。
    BACKGROUND: With the advancement of global aging, there has been an increase in patients with dysmobility syndrome (DS), often accompanied by osteoporosis, sarcopenia, and sarcopenic obesity. The objective of this study was to evaluate the application value of the body mass frequency index (BMFI) in older patients with DS by comprehensively analyzing the differences in BMFI between community-dwelling older subjects using medical and engineering methods.
    METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted to recruit community-dwelling older subjects aged 60-90 years. Various assessments and measurements were performed, including basic information collection, gait analysis, bone mineral density (BMD) and body composition measurement, fall and fracture risk et al. Gait analysis and body mass index (BMI) are in the established model to calculate BMFI. Analysis of BMFI was performed in community-dwelling older subjects, and the specificity and threshold of BMFI in predicting dysmobility syndrome (DS) were further analyzed.
    RESULTS: Significant differences in BMFI were observed between older adults with DS and those without DS. BMFI in older people was associated with bone quality, fracture risk, body fat percentage, appendicular skeletal muscle mass index (ASMI), grip strength, and speed. The odds ratio (OR) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) for BMFI in the non-DS and DS groups were 0.823 (0.743-0.901), respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis demonstrated that BMFI had predictive value in distinguishing non-DS from DS (AUC = 0.669) (P < 0.05). The optimal threshold for predicting non-DS and DS was found to be 16.04 (sensitivities = 0.483, specificities = 0.774).
    CONCLUSIONS: The measurement of BMFI has demonstrated disparities in musculoskeletal status among older adults with and without DS. Notably, BMFI exhibits a unique predictive capacity for DS among the elderly population.
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  • 文章类型: Editorial
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:人口老龄化正在加速,特别是在亚洲国家。跌倒是中国60岁以上老年人意外伤害的主要原因。因此,预测与跌倒风险相关的风险因素至关重要。我们旨在探讨口腔衰弱和跌倒风险是否相关,以及营养是否介导了它们的关联。
    方法:2022年10月至2023年3月,采用便利抽样法,从扬州社区抽取409名老年人。关于老年人口腔脆弱的横断面数据,营养,并使用问卷收集跌倒风险。使用SPSS27.0和PROCESS宏进行数据分析。
    结果:跌倒风险评分为1.0(范围从0到4.0),107例(26.2%)被确定有跌倒风险。Spearman相关分析显示口腔衰弱与跌倒风险呈正相关(rs=0.430,P<0.01)。发现营养与口腔衰弱和跌倒风险均呈负相关(rs=-0.519,-0.457,P<0.01)。当控制协变量时,观察到营养介导了口腔虚弱与跌倒之间的关系。中介效应值占总效应的48.8%(P<0.01)。
    结论:口腔虚弱与跌倒风险显著相关,营养可能是口腔衰弱和跌倒风险不良反应的中介因素。增强老年人的营养是减轻口腔脆弱者跌倒风险的重要方法。
    BACKGROUND: Population aging is accelerating, particularly in Asian countries. Falls are the leading cause of unintentional injuries in the elderly over 60 years old in China. Hence, it is crucial to anticipate the risk factors associated with fall risk. We aimed to explore whether oral frailty and fall risk were reciprocally related and whether nutrition mediated their association.
    METHODS: From October 2022 to March 2023, a total of 409 elderly individuals from the Yangzhou community were selected using the convenience sampling method. Cross-sectional data on older adults\' oral frailty, nutrition, and fall risk were collected using questionnaires. Data analysis was performed using SPSS 27.0 and PROCESS macro.
    RESULTS: The fall risk score was 1.0 (ranging from 0 to 4.0), with 107 cases (26.2%) identified as being at risk of falling. Spearman correlation analysis revealed a positive correlation between oral frailty and the risk of falls (rs = 0.430, P < 0.01). Nutrition was found to have a negative correlation with both oral frailty and fall risk (rs=-0.519、-0.457, P < 0.01). When controlling for covariates, it was observed that nutrition mediated the relationship between oral frailty and falls. The mediating effect value accounted for 48.8% of the total effect (P < 0.01).
    CONCLUSIONS: Oral frailty was significantly associated with fall risk, and nutrition might be a mediating factor for adverse effects of oral frailty and fall risk. Enhancing the nutrition of older individuals is a vital approach to mitigating fall risk among those with oral frailty.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:髋部骨折和跌倒是重要的健康问题。握力(HGS)与整体肌肉力量和身体健康密切相关。然而,HGS与髋部骨折和跌倒风险之间的纵向关系尚不清楚,尤其是性别差异。这项纵向研究旨在调查45岁及以上人群HGS与髋部骨折和跌倒风险之间的关系。考虑到4年期间的性别差异。
    方法:本研究纳入了来自中国健康与退休纵向研究(CHARLS)的10,092名45岁及以上的参与者(男性4471名,女性5621名)。在4年的随访中记录了髋部骨折和跌倒的事件,以及各种人口统计学和临床因素。参与者根据他们的HGS五分位数分为五组。采用Logistic回归模型估计调整后的比值比(ORs)和95%置信区间(CIs),以评估HGS与髋部骨折/跌倒风险之间的关系。
    结果:在4年的随访期间,髋部骨折223例(2.2%),跌倒1831例(18.1%)。值得注意的是,在男性和女性中,较高的HGS与髋部骨折风险呈显著负相关(p<0.05).与HGS最低的五分之一相比,髋部骨折的调整比值比(ORs)为0.46(0.27-0.78),在HGS最高的五分位数中,男性为0.4(0.19-0.81),女性为0.48(0.23-0.98)。此外,检测到HGS与跌倒之间存在深度和统计学上显著的负相关(p<0.05)。HGS最高五分位数下降的调整后OR,与最低的五分之一相比,总人口为0.62(0.51-0.76),男性为0.59(0.44-0.78),女性为0.78(0.62-0.99)。
    结论:我们的研究结果强调了HGS与45岁及以上男性和女性髋部骨折和跌倒风险之间的显著负相关。评估握力可以作为预测骨折和跌倒风险的有价值的工具。
    OBJECTIVE: Hip fracture and falls are significant health concerns. Handgrip strength (HGS) is closely associated with overall muscle strength and physical health. However, the longitudinal relationship between HGS and the risk of hip fractures and falls remains unclear, particularly regarding gender differences. This longitudinal study aimed to investigate the association between HGS and the risk of hip fracture and falls in individuals aged 45 years and above, considering gender-specific differences over a 4-year period.
    METHODS: This study included 10,092 participants (4471 men and 5621 women) aged 45 years and above from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Incidents of hip fractures and falls were recorded during a 4-year follow-up, along with various demographic and clinical factors. Participants were categorized into five groups based on their HGS quintiles. Logistic regression models were employed to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the relationship between HGS and hip fracture/fall risk.
    RESULTS: During the 4-year follow-up period, 223 cases of hip fracture (2.2%) and 1831 cases of falls (18.1%) were documented. Notably, higher HGS demonstrated a strong inverse association with the risk of hip fracture in both males and females (p < 0.05). In comparison to the lowest HGS quintile, the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for hip fracture were 0.46 (0.27-0.78) for the total population, 0.4 (0.19-0.81) for males and 0.48 (0.23-0.98) for females in the highest HGS quintile. Furthermore, a profound and statistically significant negative correlation between HGS and falls was detected (p < 0.05). The adjusted ORs for falls in the highest HGS quintile, compared to the lowest quintile, were 0.62 (0.51-0.76) in the overall population, 0.59 (0.44-0.78) in males, and 0.78 (0.62-0.99) in females.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the significant inverse association between HGS and the risk of hip fracture and falls in both males and females aged 45 years and above. Assessing handgrip strength may serve as a valuable tool for predicting fracture and fall risk.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    开发并内部验证用于识别有跌倒风险的血液病患者的预测模型。
    这是一项前瞻性队列研究,来自6个月的前瞻性数据收集。我们在中国医疗机构和家庭环境中招募了412例血液病患者。预测模型的结果是下降与否。这些变量通过单变量逻辑分析过滤,拉索,和多变量逻辑分析。我们采用K折交叉验证的内部验证方法。ROC曲线下面积和H-L检验用于评价模型的判别和校准。
    确定五个影响因素进行多变量logistic回归分析。建立的模型方程为:模型的H-L拟合优度检验p>0.05。列车ROC曲线下面积为0.957(95%CI:0.936~0.978),ROC曲线下面积为0.962(95%CI:0.884~1),因此模型校准和判别有效性良好。
    我们的公式在预测血液病患者跌倒风险方面具有良好的敏感性和特异性,对其跌倒风险的临床评估具有一定的积极意义。
    ChiCTR2200063940。
    UNASSIGNED: To develop and internally validate a prediction model for identifying patients with hematologic diseases of fall risk.
    UNASSIGNED: This is a prospective cohort study from a prospective collection of data for 6 months. We recruited 412 patients with hematologic diseases in medical institutions and home environment of China. The outcome of the prediction model was fall or not. These variables were filtered via univariable logistic analysis, LASSO, and multivariable logistic analysis. We adopt an internal validation method of K-fold cross validation. The area under the ROC curve and the H-L test were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the model.
    UNASSIGNED: Five influencing factors were identified multivariable logistic regression analysis. The established model equation is as follows: the H-L goodness-of-fit test of the model p > 0.05. The area under the ROC curve of train is 0.957 (95% CI: 0.936 ~ 0.978), and the area under the ROC curve of test is 0.962 (95% CI: 0.884 ~ 1), so the model calibration and discriminant validity are good.
    UNASSIGNED: Our equation has good sensitivity and specificity in predicting the fall risk of patients with hematologic diseases, and has certain positive significance for clinical assessment of their fall risk.
    UNASSIGNED: ChiCTR2200063940.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    虚弱和高血压通常在老年人中共存,这可能导致跌倒风险。本研究旨在检验虚弱状态之间的关系,高血压,跌倒风险。
    在这项横断面研究中,从无锡的社区方便地招募了401名老年人,中国,2022年9月至2022年11月之间。停止老人事故的跌倒风险自我评估清单,死亡和受伤(STEADI)工具包用于评估他们的跌倒风险。FRAIL量表问卷用于评估虚弱状态。收集参与者的人口统计信息和合并症。多元逻辑回归,广义加法模型,和平滑曲线拟合用于分析脆弱之间的关联,高血压,跌倒风险。
    虚弱与参与者的跌倒风险患病率增加密切相关(OR8.52,95%CI3.21-22.57;P<0.001)。高血压显著增加老年人跌倒风险(OR1.87,95%CI1.11-3.13;P=0.019)。高血压和虚弱组的跌倒风险发生率最高(OR12.24,95%CI3.51-42.65)。平滑曲线拟合显示,在高血压状态下,虚弱与跌倒风险之间存在非线性关联。在从衰弱到衰弱状态的过程中,在患有高血压的老年人中发现更高的下降趋势.
    虚弱状态和高血压独立且共同影响跌倒风险的增加。加强虚弱和高血压管理可能有助于降低该人群的跌倒风险。
    UNASSIGNED: Frailty and hypertension often coexist in older adults, which may lead to fall risks. This study aimed to examine the relationship between frailty status, hypertension, and fall risk.
    UNASSIGNED: In this cross-sectional study, a total of 401 older adults were conveniently recruited from communities in Wuxi, China, between September 2022 and November 2022. The fall risk self-assessment checklist from the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths & Injuries (STEADI) Toolkit was used to evaluate their fall risks. The FRAIL scale questionnaire was used to assess frailty status. Participants\' demographic information and comorbidities were collected. Multivariate logistic regression, generalized additive model, and smooth curve fitting were used to analyze the association between frailty, hypertension, and fall risk.
    UNASSIGNED: Frailty had a strong association with increased prevalence of fall risk among the participants (OR 8.52, 95% CI 3.21-22.57; P < 0.001). Hypertension significantly increased the fall risk among older adults (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.11-3.13; P = 0.019). The group with hypertension and frailty had the highest prevalence of fall risk (OR 12.24, 95% CI 3.51-42.65). Smooth curve fitting showed a nonlinear association between frailty and fall risk in hypertension status. In the progress of pre-frailty to frailty status, a higher tendency to fall was found among older adults with hypertension.
    UNASSIGNED: Frailty status and hypertension independently and jointly influenced the increased prevalence of fall risk. Enhanced frailty and hypertension management may help decrease fall risk among this population.
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